我国商业银行流动性过剩现状分析和控制策略

商业银行流动性过剩是全球经济都会面临的危机,我国在面对商业银行流动性问题时,采取了货币紧缩政策,收到了较好的效果。本文主要研究了我国商业银行流动性过剩现状,并提出了几点解决商业银行流动性过剩的策略。     

我国商业银行流动性过剩问题初探

通常所说的流动性概念具有两层含义：第一层含是指流动性资产，即可用来支付的现金或现金类资产；第二层含义是指流动性能力，也就是指商业银行可以在适当的时间内、以适当的价格取得可用资金的能力。本文所提及的“流动性”属于第一层含义，我国银行业目前所面临的流动性过剩问题是流动性资产的过剩，它是由于商业银行在一定时期内存款较多，可供贷款的对象和可供投资的产相对较少而造成的流动性资产相对过剩。     

当前商业银行流动性过剩问题研究

当前我国商业银行面临严峻的流动性过剩问题,主要是由于汇率水平维持、商业银行不良贷款控制、资本充足率限期达标等因素起了作用。考虑到仍在发挥作用的因素,我国商业银行流动性在2006年不会有显著的变化,但随着商业银行内外部条件的变化,2006年以后我国商业银行流动性过剩问题会得到逐步缓解。     

我国商业银行流动性过剩问题初探

近年来,我国商业银行流动性过剩问题日渐突出。基于此,本文在分析我国商业发行流动性过剩表现和影响的基础上,探讨了我国商业银行流动性过剩的成因,并提出了解决我国商业银行流动性过剩问题的政策建议。     

我国商业银行的流动性过剩问题及解决对策

商业银行流动性是商业银行的生命线。流动性不足会引发商业银行挤兑现象，严重的还会导致商业银行破产。流动性过剩则意味着商业银行持有的资金超过维持必要流动所需的资金并为此承担较高的资金成本。近年来，我国商业银行流动性过剩问题日趋严重并引起了各方面的关注。本文通过分析商业银行流动性过剩的表现和成因，对于如何解决商业银行流动性风险问题提出几点对策和建议。     

"双过剩"下商业银行的困境及出路

在今后一段时期，商业银行将面临产能过剩和流动性过剩的双重过剩，产能过剩与流动性过剩的二律背反将给商业银行的经营带来重大影响。商业银行一方面要加快战略转型，改善业务结构，提高资产收益，另一方面要进一步提高风险防范能力，加大风险防范力度，从而实现收益和风险的最佳平衡。     

流动性过剩条件下政府隐性和或有债务风险分析

我国目前所面临的流动性过剩问题不是流动性能力的过剩,是流动性资产的过剩,说明商业银行贷款过程受阻和储蓄向投资转化的过程受阻.在流动性过剩条件下,银行业不良资产攀升、地方政府债务规模的扩张和央行冲销过剩流动性的成本上升以及社保基金保值增值的压力等将会加大政府隐性和或有债务风险.应建立政府债务风险预警和监控体系、加强商业银行风险监管、规范地方政府投资行为、建立多层次的社会保险准备金.     

海北州商业银行流动性过剩分析及对策建议

商业银行流动性过剩是当前社会广泛关注和研究的一个问题，也一直是困扰着我国宏观经济运行的一个突出问题，从近年国内经济金融运行情况来看，我国流动性过剩问题日渐显著，这不只是宏观调控问题，也是一个微观命题。本文结合当前海北州商业银行流动性过剩问题表现，分析了流动性过剩原因，并提出了对策建议。     

我国商业银行流动性过剩问题分析

针对于此,本文首先概述了有关商业银行流动性的理论然后分析了我国商业银行流动性过剩的成因,并探讨了流动性过剩引起的问题,在此基础上试图提出一些缓解我国商业银行流动性过剩的对策。     

我国商业银行流动性过剩对策分析

近几年,我国商业银行流动性过剩问题日益突出,并成为我国宏观经济诸多矛盾的焦点。本文从当前我国商业银行流动性过剩的表现及形成原因分析入手,阐述流动性过剩对我国国民经济和商业银行经营造成的不利影响,提出治理商业银行流动性过剩的途径和对策。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…