Prospect for China–Korea Economic Relations

I. Introduction The Chinese economy has undergone dramatic changes since the adoption of economic reform and the opening-up policy of 1978. In the past 26 years, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has reached an average 9.3 percent per year and China’s currentGDP size, measured in comparable prices, is 10.3 times larger than it was in 1978. China’s GDP, measured with the official exchange rate, ranks sixth in the world and is second in terms of purchasing power parity, on…     

Human capital in Britain, 1760–2009

Human capital can be defined as the knowledge, skills, competencies and attributes embodied in individuals that facilitate the creation of personal, social and economic well-being. It is arguably one of the most important determinants of economic growth. In general, human capital has been calculated with two different approaches: (1) retrospective method through the expenditures on education, (2) prospective through the discounted sum of the wages it would receive over the expected number of remaining working years. In this paper we use the prospective method to calculate human capital in the UK from the mid-eighteenth century to the present, providing the by far longest estimate for human capital for any country. To overcome the problems related to the scarcity of historical data, we developed a method which is able to make the most efficient use of the scarce data available for the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Our calculations show a 112-fold increase of human capital, and a 13-fold increase of human capital per worker and per capita from 1760 to 2009. Using cumulative schooling expenditures from 1833 to 2000, we examine whether increased spending on schooling explains this phenomenal growth in human capital.     

Tariff protection in Sweden, 1885–1914

Abstract

The Swedish finance company crisis was a kind of “run” that happened in September, 1990. It marked the beginning of the Swedish banking crisis of the early 1990s. The crisis was initially focused on the finance company Nyckeln. The specific negative information about Nyckeln is identified, and so is the extreme lateness with which it reached, if at all, the supervisory authority and the banks that were involved in lending to the finance companies. The paper then inquires whether there were warning signs of the forthcoming crisis in capital market and other public information, by means of the usual event study methodology. The data employed include indices for the banking industry and the real estate and construction industry, and share prices and trading volume for finance companies. The conclusion is that the crisis really came as a surprise, with very little advance warning.     

The J-Curve and Japan–China commodity trade

Previous studies that have tested the J-Curve phenomenon for Japan or China employed either aggregate trade data between each country and the rest of the world, or aggregate bilateral data between two trade partners. These studies have found no support for the J-Curve. Suspecting that their models could suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper, we disaggregate bilateral trade flows between the two countries and examine trade by 73 industries. We find evidence of the J-Curve phenomenon in 24 industries, a unique finding for trade between Japan and China.     

Understanding the inflation–output nexus for China

In this article we examine several hypotheses relating to output and inflation dynamics in China. The hypotheses tests are based on the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model of Nelson [Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset return: A new approach, Econometrica, 59, 347–370]. Our findings suggest that Chinese output–inflation behaviour is consistent with the hypothesis that increased inflation uncertainty lowers average inflation; the hypothesis that inflation volatility reduces economic growth and the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases economic growth. However, we find no support for the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases the average inflation rate.     

Women's Economic Status in Rural China: Household Contributions to Male–Female Disparities in the Wage–Labor Market

Rapid industrial growth in China coupled with economic reforms in the rural areas has created a growing demand for rural women's labor, though often at substantially lower wages than those earned by men employed in the same sector. An analysis of data collected in rural Guangdong province suggests that households may contribute to the observed male–female market wage differential through their influence in the formation of individuals' reservation wages. Under these circumstances, external employment opportunities, while no doubt serving to increase the household's overall level of income, may, on their own, be a less effective mechanism for raising the economic status of women. On the contrary, market wage signals may serve to reinforce, rather than to ameliorate, sex-based differences that arise within the household.     

Motor Vehicle Output and GDP, 1968–2007

In this paper, we assess the performance of the BEA series “value of motor vehicle output” as an indicator of the business cycle over the period 1968–2007. We statistically assess the causal relationship between real motor vehicle output (RMVO) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). This is accomplished by standard estimation and statistical methods used to assess vector autoregressive models. This assessment represents the initial results of a more encompassing research project, the intent of which is to determine the dynamic interaction of the transport sector with the overall economy. It’s a start to a more comprehensive assessment of how transport and economic activity interrelate.

Always egalitarian? Australian earnings inequality 1870–1910

We document the origins of Australia's egalitarianism by quantifying both the level and trends of earnings inequality during 1870–1910 by constructing social tables for earnings, thus overcoming the constraints imposed by the lack of income, tax and wealth data. We find that earnings inequality was much lower in Australia than in the United States and the United Kingdom in 1870 and that there was no rise in Australian earnings inequality over the half century 1870–1910, but rather a fall. We argue that such findings are driven by a faster skill supply growth relative to demand.     

Exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia: 1980–1998

This paper estimates the equilibrium level of the real exchange rate for Indonesia in order to measure the extent of overvaluation of the rupiah at the time of the Asian crisis in 1997. The equilibrium level of the real exchange rate is measured using co-integration approach, unobserved component model and structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The paper uses these models to analyze the developments in the exchange rate policy. None of the models support overvaluation of the rupiah to justify the massive depreciation in 1997.     

Coal exports and British shipping, 1850–1913

We export of British coal was a major feature of late 19th-century ocean shipping. It has often been argued that British coal was key to the success of British shipping, but close examination raises doubts. Most British coal went to European ports where British ships carried a smaller proportion of the trade than they did in more distant trades. Shared costs between outward and homeward freights created an important relationship between coal freight rates and the freight rates on imports into northwestern Europe. In general, however, there seems to be little connection between Britain's shipping success and the export of coal.     

The South African labour market, 1995–2015

This study investigates the changes in the South African labour market in the post-apartheid period. While unemployment increased over the 1995–2015 period, employment also increased. Nonetheless, the extent of employment increase is not rapid enough to absorb all net entrants into the labour force, resulting in increasing unemployment, or an employment absorption rate of 65.3%. Unemployment is concentrated in specific demographically and geographically defined groups, most notably Africans, the lowly educated and those aged below 30 years, residing in rural areas in Gauteng. Finally, four worrying findings are observed: youth jobseekers aged below 30 years struggle to find their first job; chronic unemployment is more serious for the relatively older jobseekers (aged 45 years or above) with past work experience; employees working for small, medium and micro enterprises still stagnate at approximately 3.5 million; and jobseekers from the older age cohorts are less likely to actively seek work by enquiring at workplaces and answering job advertisements.     

Agricultural development in industrialising Japan, 1880–1940

This study reviews research examining agricultural development in industrialising Japan. We focus on the (dys)functioning of markets for land, finance, labour and agricultural commodities. We cover topics including land (mis)allocation, size-productivity relationships, tenancy contract choice and Marshallian inefficiency, property rights, microfinance, shock-coping strategies, rural–urban migration and agricultural market integration. The literature reveals that market failures often observed in developing economies were not prominent, except for possibly labour markets. The literature also highlights the roles and administrative capacities of central and local governments. Tight local communities served to reduce transaction costs.     

Changes in food consumption in Iceland, 1770–1940

Abstract

The history of food consumption in Iceland differs in many fundamental ways from that in the rest of Europe. The prominence of domestically produced dairy products, fish, meat and suet, and the insignificance of cereals until the nineteenth century, are among the most unusual features. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate total food consumption in Iceland on the basis of food supply data, covering the period 1770–1940. The data, derived from trade statistics, production statistics and the author’s current study of Iceland’s GNp, provides information on the level of consumption, on the composition and the nutritional value of the diet, and on the changing patterns of consumption. In general terms, this can be described as a transition from an animal-based to a more grain-based diet. A short discussion on the causes of dietary change, and its effects on the nutrional status of Icelanders and on population growth, concludes the paper.     

Internal migration and industrialization in Finland, 1878–1939

Abstract

For the economic historian the statistics of population are quite as important as those of trade. To understand the economic development of a country it is necessary to have some knowledge I: 0 of the distribution of population at different periods, 2:0 of what changes have been effected by migration, and also 3 : 0 of the forces influencing migration. The analysis of these forces helps, moreover, to illuminate the nature of man's economic behaviour.     

Human capital accumulation in emerging Asia, 1970–2030

Emerging Asian economies have made strong progress in improving educational capital in the past 40 years. High educational attainment, especially at the secondary level, has significantly improved emerging Asia's educational achievement. Regressions show that better parental education and income, lower income inequality, declining fertility, and higher public educational expenditures account for higher educational enrollment. But Asia's average years of schooling are forecast to increase to 7.6 years by 2030, from 7.0, significantly slower than the increase of 4.1 years from 1970 to 2010. That would put emerging Asia's educational capital in 2030 at only the 1970 level of the advanced countries, or still 3.5 years behind the level of advanced countries in 2010. For sustained human development, Asian economies must invest in improving educational quality and raising enrollment rates at the secondary and tertiary levels.     

Measurement of English farming technological change, 1523–1900

I have argued that for the period from 1661 to 1850, patent data in England were consistent in that no official changes in methods and standards of issuance occurred. Book data on titles published on farming production methods were similarly consistent from 1523 to the mid-19th century because the market for books developed gradually and the technology of printing was not substantially changed until the mid-19th century.My main point is that data on output of titles of books on farming productive techniques in England are useful measures of technological change. Books did have information on good production methods and could express productive ideas where a patent may not be issued. Further, the literacy rate of farmers was high so that books were likely an important source of ideas on farming production methods. Finally, the fluctuations in the book data were highly related to the fluctuations in the patent data, suggesting that a common set of factors caused those fluctuations. The high correlations between the detrended book and patent data indicate that if we accept patenting as a useful measure of technology we may also accept book title output of a technical nature as a good measure of technical change.I used the data for a simple analysis of the trend growth rate of agricultural technology in England from 1551 to 1850. While there is limited evidence to show that the subperiod 1651–1750 saw a slowing in the trend of development of farming technology, I argue that a division of the entire period into subperiods is too simplistic. A more fruitful approach would be an analysis of the underlying forces that determined the trend of development of the technology of English agriculture.The next step is an analysis of the forces that influenced technological development of English farming. From an economic point of view, market forces play an important role in influencing technology. Because such an analysis deserves careful consideration, I leave that to another paper (see Sullivan and Simon, 1983).