Land-Use Controls and Housing Costs: An Examination of San Francisco Bay Area Communities*

This paper reports on our efforts to gauge the effects of land use controls on housing markets. We discuss how land use controls affect land and housing markets and explain why communities use such controls to restrict development. We present the results of an econometric model created to assess the inflationary effects of land use controls on housing costs. The model is based on data assembled in the San Francisco Bay Area. The model results indicate that density controls and land availability do systematically affect the price of new housing units.     

The Impact of Growth Control Regulations on Housing Prices in California*

This paper examines the impact of growth controls on the price of new single-family homes. Four types of growth controls are discussed and each is found to have a significantly different impact on housing prices. Regulations that are imposed by one locality only are first compared to those that are imposed by a locality whose neighbors also control growth. In California, increases in house prices in communities with only local growth controls cannot be distinguished from communities that do not control growth. However, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase in growth control jurisdictions located in extensively regulated housing markets is significantly higher than in local-only or no-control jurisdictions. In addition, controls that restrict the rate of development are compared to those that specify the quality of development. In the extensively regulated San Francisco Bay area, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase was 35% higher in rate-controlled communities and 20% higher in quality-controlled communities than in no-control communities.     

Summary of an Article on Reforming Land-Use Regulations

This article describes how excessive land use control adversely affects the cost of housing. Numerous studies showing the impact of over-regulation on housing costs are cited. The article provides both a historical and philosophical context for public land use regulation and describes key judicial decisions as well as competing public and private interests that shape the regulatory environment.
Specific attention is given to the work of the Committee on Government Regulation and the Cost of Housing of the President's Commission on Housing. The various recommendations of the Commission are set forth, the central one being the enactment of state and local legislation to restrict zoning regulation to that which is necessary to achieve what the Commission terms a "vital and pressing" governmental interest. A number of other specific Commission recommendations are also enumerated including density of development, restrictions on manufactured housing, size of dwelling units, growth controls, farmland preservation, development standards and fees, and local permit processing. The article concludes with a strong statement regarding the need for public education as a prerequisite for reform.     

Why Do We Have Urban Density Controls?

Almost all urban land use controls reduce permitted densities. This article analyzes restrictions on residential densities in a conventional model of density–distance functions. Density controls force development to extend farther than in competitive equilibrium, thus increasing commuting distances and dwelling costs. Residents benefit if, as is likely, they prefer lower densities than in competitive equilibrium. But there is a limit to the extra commuting and housing costs that nevertheless make residents better off. Theoretical and numerical analyses are presented to show that likely parameter values almost certainly result in reductions in residents' welfare.     

Local House Price Diffusion

We contribute to the literature on house price diffusion by carrying out our analysis at three levels: CBSA (nationwide), town and census tract (Greater Boston Area). We estimate fixed‐effect models of house price growth on lagged growth (“Persistence”), nearby lagged growth (“Spillovers”) and Fundamentals growth. CBSA‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects are positive and significant. These large ripple/contagion effects likely contributed to the recent national‐level housing downturn. We find evidence of smaller town‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects. Hence, diffusion appears stronger across than within housing markets. Fundamentals and price expectations drive price diffusion, leaving room for bubbles from future price overoptimism.     

Rent Controls in Ontario: Roofs or Ceilings?

This paper describes the rent control program in Ontario and discusses the consequences of these controls. It indicates that rent controls caused both a small nominal decline and a large real decline in the per unit value of rental apartments, substantially reduced new rental housing starts, generated a rental housing shortage, created a dual market with significant rent differences between the controlled and uncontrolled (new construction) sectors, and imposed large costs on government in the form of foregone tax revenues and increased rental housing subsidies. The paper also indicates some of the political responses to the developing economic effects, such as the imposition of additional land use controls and increased government spending programs to stimulate new rental construction.     

我国农村宅基地选择的弃旧辟新的成因与对策——以湖北省孝感市光明村为例

随着我国城市化快速发展，土地资源日益紧张，广大农村宅基地选择时却出现了严重的弃旧辟新侵占良田的行为，从而导致大量土地闲置。文章以湖北省孝感市光明村为例，在实地调研的基础上，从经济学的视角，研究了宅基地弃旧辟新行为的主要原因，分析了宅基地弃旧辟新带来的问题，提出了使农民充分利用土地资源的引导机制。     

住宅产业发展的结构主义观点分析

章采用结构主义的观点，应用投入产出分析原理，解释了住宅产业成为国民经济新的增长点的客观条件。在此基础上，综合分析了结构主义观点指导中国目前住宅产业发展的启示。提出中国住宅产业发展的关键是科技进步，并且应该根据产业发展的阶段进行科技进步类型的选择。最后，还阐述了推动住宅产业发展中的技术结构、产业组织和企业角色等因素。     

Congestion Effects of Spatial Growth Restrictions: A Model and Empirical Analysis

The present study characterizes the congestion effect of spatially designated growth controls, such as greenbelt or urban growth boundaries. The developed model demonstrates that the congestion externality caused by a binding growth restriction can understate total welfare costs of the regulation but overstate the amount of welfare transfer from renters of urban land to landowners. This article also examines costs and benefits of different development options given a binding growth restriction, and shows that non-consideration of the congestion externality is likely to skew choice toward high-density development. To test the hypothesized regulatory effect, a pooled time-series and cross-sectional analysis is performed with the land price data from Seoul, Korea. The results offer evidence of the gradient-flattening effect of the greenbelt regulation in the study area.     

Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices

In attempting to explain why housing prices, rents and urban land prices vary so dramatically between U.S. metropolitan areas, a simple model of a metropolitan housing market is presented identifying three interrelated submarkets. Estimating equations for rent, housing prices and urban land prices are identified and estimated using two-stage least squares. The empirical results provide strong support for the theoretical model concerning how these three submarkets interact. The results also suggest that household income and construction costs are the most important factors causing housing prices, rents and land prices to vary between metropolitan areas.     

Can the Consumption–Wealth Ratio Predict Housing Returns? Evidence from OECD Countries

We use a representative consumer model to analyze the relation between the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labor income, cay, and the housing risk premium. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that, if financial and housing assets are seen as complements, investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise when they expect a rise in future housing returns. By contrast, if housing assets are treated as substitutes for financial assets, consumption will be reduced.     

政府土地供应政策、行政调控政策对房价波动的影响——基于中国35个城市的证据

2016年中国面临了新一轮的房价上涨，政府调控对房价调节起着重要的作用。本文从中国35个城市2010～2016年的土地供应政策（土地竞拍过程中的额外规定）和行政调控政策（“限贷”、“限购”和住房规划政策）的变化来研究其对房价波动的影响，得出土地供应调控和“限购”政策对房价的显著正向作用，但“限贷”和住房规划政策对房的作用与预期相反并做了相应的分析，最后提出3个稳定房价的建议：（1）在供给侧的调控仍以增加土地供应为核心，各大城市统筹兼顾，突出重点。（2）在需求侧的调控则以“限贷”、“限购”为抑制房价上涨的短期有效的政策工具。（3）土地制度改革是稳定房价根本措施。     

Valuing the Redevelopment Option Component of Urban Land Values

This study draws from the redevelopment, real option, and urban spatial growth literatures to explore the spatial dynamics of the components of house prices. More specifically, the paper proposes that the capitalized value of the option to redevelop housing at the property level can be estimated by incorporating the likelihood of exercising the redevelopment option (the probability of redevelopment) into spatial and nonspatial hedonic house price models. Accordingly, option values are estimated for properties across the spectrum of the housing life cycle. Results from the study reveal a substantial level of spatial variation and clustering in the predicted option values, indicating that location is a major determinant of redevelopment and real option values. Furthermore, the results provide new evidence in support of the theoretical construct that properties purchased for immediate redevelopment are only valued for the underlying land.     

Surpluses in Disequilibrium Urban Land Markets

It is unlikely that urban land markets are in equilibrium. If land markets are out of equilibrium, zones within an urban area would have residential location surpluses. This paper shows how to derive and estimate an index of income surplus by residential zone. The procedure is applied to the Baltimore Metropolitan Area for 1978. Households should be at attracted to zones with high surpluses. A comparison of the estimated location surpluses and growth rates for the Baltimore area show this correspondence.     

Moderate Rent Controls: A Microeconomic and Public Choice Analysis

Why do people vote for (and against) moderate rent controls? The microeconomic effects of rent controls are complex–they affect both renters and homeowners in many ways, creating a complicated pattern of winners and losers. Renters stand to gain initially from the controlled rents, but competition for scarce housing dissipates these gains. Homeowners are affected by changing housing demand patterns and shifts in property tax burdens. An econometric analysis of the 1980 Seattle, Washington rent control referendum supports the conclusion that voters recognized the microeconomic gains and losses and voted accordingly on this issue. Use of census tract data makes this public choice analysis particularly strong compared to other studies that aggregate voters at the city or county level, possibly missing important intrajurisdiction voting patterns.     

Housing Policy in a Nongrowth Era: Problems of the Northeast United States

The ambivalent results of the federal government's large-scale subsidization of low- and moderate-rent housing production in the early 1970s have produced new preoccupations about the directions federal housing programs should take in the light of sharply divergent growth trends among Regions that have become apparent in 1977. As economic and demographic growth in the South and West Regions poses classic problems of adaption to growth, the Northeast and North Central Regions are faced with either nongrowth or decreases in population and employment. This paper discusses adaptions designed to conserve and improve existing housing resources in areas that require only minimal new residential construction. These adaptions include new levels of state-federal housing coordination to make more intense use of private financing in conjunction with the federal Section 8, Coinsurance, and Section 233(f) programs.     

Adaptation to land constraints: Is Africa different?

Since the seminal works of Malthus and Boserup, scientists have long debated the impact of population growth and land constraints on the wellbeing of rural people. Today these concerns are particularly relevant to Africa, with its rapid population growth, very small farms, and chronic food insecurity. In this paper we examine adaptation to falling land-labor ratios using a comprehensive theoretical framework in which households faced with binding land constraints can respond in three ways: intensifying agricultural production, diversifying out of agriculture, and reducing fertility rates. Using cross-country data and drawing upon the existing literature, we reach three conclusions. First, population density is associated with reduced fallows and more intensive use of land but not fertilizer use or irrigation, indicating major challenges in achieving sustainable intensification or agricultural productivity growth. Second, there is little evidence of successful non-farm diversification in response to land pressures in Africa from domestic or international income sources. Third, rural Africans in land constrained countries desire smaller families, but have thus far benefited little from family planning policies. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated multi-sectoral approach to sustainably reduce poverty in the region.     

Tax Limits and Housing Markets: Some Evidence at the State Level

Property tax limitations, as well as other tax and expenditure restrictions on state and local governments in the United States, date back to the late 19th century. A surge in property tax limitation legislation occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and its effects on government revenue, school financing and educational quality have been studied extensively. However, there is surprisingly little literature on how property tax limits affect housing markets. For the first time, we examine the impacts of property tax limitations on housing growth, in addition to their impacts on housing prices. Using state‐level data over 23 years, we find that property tax limits increase housing prices (indexes) by approximately 2%. Property tax limits appear to have little impact on the growth in the housing stock, but education spending limits reduce the number of building permits by over 6%. Our indirect evidence suggests that the number of housing units may grow when property tax limits are accompanied by increases in other own‐source revenues to state government.     

Land constraints and agricultural intensification in Ethiopia: A village-level analysis of high-potential areas

Highland Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated regions of Africa and has long been associated with both Malthusian disasters and Boserupian agricultural intensification. This paper explores the race between these two countervailing forces, with the goal of inform two important policy questions. First, how do rural Ethiopians adapt to land constraints? And second, do land constraints significantly influence welfare outcomes in rural Ethiopia? To answer these questions we use a recent household survey of high-potential areas. We first show that farm sizes are generally very small in the Ethiopian highlands and declining over time, with young rural households facing particularly severe land constraints. We then ask whether smaller and declining farm sizes are inducing agricultural intensification, and if so, how. We find strong evidence in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis that land-constrained villages typically use significantly more purchased input costs per hectare and more family labor, and achieve higher maize and teff yields and higher gross income per hectare. However, although these higher inputs raise gross revenue, we find no substantial impact of greater land constraints on net farm income per hectare once family labor costs are accounted for. Moreover, farm sizes are strongly positively correlated with net farm income, suggesting that land constraints are an important cause of rural poverty. We conclude with some broad policy implications of our results.     

Condominium Conversion and the Tax Reform Acts of 1969 and 1976

Condominium conversions became a major factor in housing markets durig the 1970s. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that rental housing investors are in high marginal tax brackets and use rental housing tax losses to shelter other income. These characteristics imply that rental housing tax benefits are an important determinant of rental housing investment. The Tax Reform Act of 1969 and 1976 reduced rental housing tax benefits and may have provided an important stimulus for the condominium conversions of the 1970s. Tax and survey data confirm the predicted characteristics of rental-housing investors. Estimates of rental flows in Chicago from 1962 to 1977 indicate that the Tax Reform Act of 1969 and 1976 were possible causes of condominium conversions during the 1970s.