Is it time to reduce the minimum tick sizes of the E‐mini futures?

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), so‐called “E‐mini” index futures contracts trade on the electronic GLOBEX trading system alongside the corresponding full‐size contracts that trade on the open outcry floor. This paper finds that the current minimum tick sizes of the E‐mini S&P 500 and E‐mini Nasdaq‐100 futures contracts act as binding constraints on the bid‐ask spreads by not allowing the spreads to decline to competitive levels. We also find that, while exchange locals trade very actively on GLOBEX, they do not tend to act as liquidity suppliers. Taken together, our empirical results suggest that it is time for the CME to consider decreasing the minimum tick sizes of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‐100 E‐mini futures contracts. A tick size reduction is likely to result in lower trading costs in the E‐mini futures markets. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:79–104, 2005     

Decimalization,trading costs,and information transmission between ETFs and index futures

The impact of changes in trading costs, due to decimalization, on informed trading and speed of information transmission between exchange‐traded funds (ETFs) and their corresponding index futures is examined. ETFs began to trade in decimals on January 29, 2001, and index futures continued to trade in their original tick sizes. The focus is on whether the decrease in the minimum tick size of ETFs influences the relative performances of these two types of index instruments in the price‐discovery process. It is found that for ETFs, the trading activity increases, but the market depth drops significantly after decimalization. The spreads for ETFs generally decrease, but the adverse selection component of ETF spreads increases. Furthermore, after decimalization, ETFs start to lead index futures in the price‐discovery process and its share of information also increases. Although index futures still assume a dominant role in information discovery, the information content of the ETFs' prices improves significantly after decimalization. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:131–151, 2006     

Optimal contract design: For whom?

In designing a derivative contract, an exchange carefully considers how its attributes affect the expected profits of its members. On November 3, 1997, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange doubled its tick size of its S&P 500 futures contract and halved the denomination, providing a rare opportunity to examine empirically the search for an optimal contract design. This article measures changes in the trading environment that occurred in the days surrounding the contract redesign. We find a discernible change in the incidence of price clustering, an increase in the bid/ask spread, a reduction in trading volume, and no meaningful change in dollar trade size. These results suggest that the contract redesign did not increase accessibility but did increase market maker revenue. Despite the increase, however, the bid/ask spread of the S&P 500 futures contract remains low relative to the costs of market making and the spreads in markets for competing instruments. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:719–750, 2003     

Traders' strategic behavior in an index options market

We analyze traders' strategic behavior in an index options market, examining the relationships among expected duration, frequency of trades, trade size, and time to maturity using a modified ACD model. Using intraday data at‐the‐money put and call options, we obtain the following results: (1) Frequency of trades contains more information about future option price volatility than does trade size. This may result from institutional or large traders who have issued naked options using the delta‐neutral strategy to hedge those options. This also suggests that informed traders use their informational advantage little by little, rather than all at once. (2) Option volatility increases as the maturity date approaches, contradicting the prediction of the Black‐Scholes model. (3) The duration of the previous interval has a persistent effect on expected duration of the current interval. (4) For the estimation of the modified ACD model, the standardized distribution of duration is Weibull with γ < 1, not exponential. (5) The duration in the options market exhibits an inverse U‐shaped diurnal pattern, much like that of the U.S. stock market. However, unlike in the U.S. stock market, the index options duration becomes much shorter right before lunch hour (12:00 pm). © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:105–133, 2005     

The effect of the introduction of Cubes on the Nasdaq‐100 index spot‐futures pricing relationship

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of the Nasdaq‐100 Index Tracking Stock (referred to as Cubes) on the pricing relationship between Nasdaq‐100 futures and the underlying index. Observations obtained from tick‐by‐tick Nasdaq‐100 futures transactions and index value data support the hypothesis that the introduction of Cubes in March 1999 has led to improvements in the Nasdaq‐100 index futures pricing efficiency. Both the size and frequency of violations in futures price boundaries appear to be reduced. Furthermore, there appears to be an increase in the speed of the market response to observed violations. These results are attributed to the increased ease in establishing a spot Nasdaq‐100 index position after the introduction of the tracking stock. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22: 197–218, 2002     

Size clustering in the FTSE100 index futures market

Recent literature has begun to explore size clustering in financial markets. If a market is perfectly liquid, traders should be able to trade the exact amount that they desire; however, the presence of size clustering may prevent them from achieving optimal trade sizes. This study is novel in its investigation of size clustering in a futures market. We find that trade sizes cluster in a manner that is similar to the pattern of price clustering found in many financial markets. Importantly, we identify a trade‐off between size resolution and price resolution. We also find that the number of distinct trade sizes increases with trade frequency and with intra‐day volatility, and increases at the end of each calendar quarter. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:432–443, 2010     

Tick size reduction,execution costs,and informational efficiency in the regular and E-mini Nasdaq-100 index futures markets

On April 2, 2006, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reduced the minimum tick size of the floor-traded and E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures from 0.5 to 0.25 index points. This study examines the effect of this change in the contract design on execution costs, informational efficiency, and price discovery. The results show a significant reduction in the effective spreads in both of the contract markets but especially in the electronically traded E-mini futures. The paper also finds that the tick size reduction has improved price discovery and informational efficiency in the E-mini futures market. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:871–888, 2008     

Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti‐dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2006 European Union anti‐dumping (AD) action on Vietnamese footwear in three markets: imports to the EU, footwear producers in Vietnam, and the trade diversionary adjustment of Vietnamese firms in the US market. We find that the AD action reduced Vietnamese imports to the EU by as much as 65 per cent. Given that the EU makes up almost two‐thirds of Vietnam's footwear exports and footwear is among the top four export industries for Vietnam, this reduction is economically significant. Consistent with predictions of our model, we find evidence of trade diversion by Vietnamese producers from the EU to the US market. Our difference‐in‐difference estimates of the AD actions on the value of Vietnamese footwear imports to the United States ranged from 69 to 71 per cent over the period 2004–07 and 69 to 72 per cent in terms of quantity. These results highlight the spillover effects of trade policy in third markets when firms adjust to trade barriers. Our results are robust to triple‐difference specifications where we adjust for trend differences and a series of placebo specifications.     

Option bid‐ask spread and scalping risk: Evidence from a covered warrants market

This study develops and empirically tests a simple market microstructure model to capture the main determinants of option bid‐ask spread. The model is based on option market making costs (initial hedging, rebalancing, and order processing costs), and incorporates a reservation bid‐ask spread that option market makers apply to protect themselves from scalpers. The model is tested on a sample of covered warrants, which are optionlike securities issued by banks, traded on the Italian Stock Exchange. The empirical analysis validates the model. The initial cost of setting up a delta neutral portfolio has been found to be an important determinant of option bid‐ask spread, as well as rebalancing costs to keep the portfolio delta neutral. This result provides evidence of a further link between options and underlying assets: the spread of the option is positively related to the spread of its underlying asset. Empirical evidence also indicates that the reservation bid‐ask spread, computed as the product of option delta and underlying asset tick, plays a very important role in explaining the bid‐ask spread of options. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:843–867, 2006     

Tick sizes and relative rates of price discovery in stock,futures, and options markets: Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange

This study examines the competition in price discovery among stock index, index futures, and index options in Taiwan. The price‐discovery ability of the Taiwan Top 50 Tracker Fund, an exchange‐traded fund based on the Taiwan 50 index is examined. The authors find that, after the minimum tick size in the stock market decreases, the bid–ask spreads of the component stocks of the stock index and the Taiwan Top 50 Tracker Fund get lower, and the contribution of the spot market to price discovery increases. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:74–93, 2009     

The effect of diplomatic representation on trade: A panel data analysis

This study addresses current gaps in the empirical literature regarding the effect of diplomatic representation on trade using a panel data set for 100 countries with 5‐year interval data from 1985 to 2005 and four‐digit level industry data. The results indicate that the effect of diplomatic representation on exports in differentiated goods is positive and significant and larger than on exports in homogeneous goods on average, but not statistically different from it. Furthermore, diplomatic representation only increases trade along the extensive margin and not along the intensive margin. The results indicate that diplomatic representation is effective in performing its function as a network search intermediary and that it is a useful policy tool to alleviate market failure.     

Mind the Gender Wage Gap – the Impact of Trade and Competition on Sectoral Wage Differences

This paper examines differences between women’s and men’s wages in 18 selected OECD countries in the period 1970 to 2005. The study is based on 12 manufacturing sector‐ and skill‐specific sets of panel data on the gender wage gap. We apply a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to the extended version of the conditional gender wage gap convergence equation, controlling for sector concentration and industry‐specific measures of openness using a difference‐in‐difference approach: trade‐affected concentrated sectors versus trade‐affected competitive sectors. The results indicate that: (i) an increase in sector concentration is associated with wage gap growth; (ii) both import and export penetration are associated with a reduction of the high‐skill gender wage gap growth in concentrated industries; (iii) there is evidence of a widening impact of trade on the medium and low‐skill occupational gender wage gap growth in less competitive industries; (iv) institutional regulations of the labour market have an impact on the development of the gender wage gap: for highly‐skilled labour an increase in labour market regulation raises the growth of the gender wage gap, while for medium‐ and low‐skilled workers, it lowers it.     

Does adverse selection affect bid–ask spreads for options?

This study examines two different option markets to test whether differences in the level of adverse selection faced by market makers affect the size of bid–ask spreads. The data are from bank‐issued options that trade on EuWax, where market makers face little adverse selection and traditional options that trade on EuRex. The results support the hypothesis that the adverse selection component of the bid–ask spread is important, as options on EuWax have lower bid–ask spreads than comparable options on EuRex. The results show that the adverse selection component represents at least half of the overall bid–ask spreads on the traditional EuRex. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:417–437, 2008     

Geographical Location of Foreign Direct Investment and Wage Inequality in China

This paper examines the relationships between distance and the transportation costs of international trade on the location‐specific effects of foreign direct invest‐ment and provincial per capita income in China. Applying the economic geography model proposed by Redding and Venables (2004), it traces the increasing wage inequality among the coastal and inland provinces by focusing on the distance of foreign‐owned firms from access to international markets and to suppliers of intermediate inputs. First, a gravity‐type equation is used to construct the ‘market access’ and ‘supplier access’ variables. Then, the effect of market and supplier access on provincial wage rates is estimated. The results indicate that distance does affect international trade and geography explains roughly one‐third of the wage differential. Greater market access increases the provincial wage gap, while larger supplier access increases the wage difference in trade destined for the foreign market but decreases the wage difference in trade targeted for the domestic market. Similar findings also result from applying the estimations to two local firm types: state‐owned enterprises and collective‐owned enterprises.     

Productivity Versus Employment: Quantifying the Economic Effects of an EU–Japan Free Trade Agreement

The European Union and Japan recently entered into negotiations over a bilateral free trade agreement intended to stimulate growth and create wealth. Since customs duties are already low, the success of the liberalisation process hinges on the elimination of non‐tariff barriers. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on two possible liberalisation scenarios: a less ambitious liberalisation and a comprehensive liberalisation. In contrast to classic studies, our paper builds on the modern trade literature, accounting for the dominance of intra‐industry trade in both economies and the existence of heterogeneous firms. Furthermore, we model a search‐and‐matching labour market, allowing us to quantify employment effects of trade liberalisation. We find that a comprehensive liberalisation increases Japanese GDP by 0.86 per cent, whereas the EU experiences only an additional 0.21 per cent of real GDP growth. Most of the growth in real GDP is due to firms' efficiency gains, whereas unemployment is reduced by only a small amount. Other world regions experience small reductions of GDP due to trade diversion effects.     

The Relation Between Market Liquidity and Anonymity in the Presence of Tick Size Constraints

In February 2004, the Sydney Futures Exchange removed broker identifiers from the electronic limit order book for interest rate futures contracts, with the stated objective of maintaining transparency and improving market participation and liquidity. We show how the Exchange's aims were generally met by documenting an increase in volume and frequency of trades and a decline in time‐weighted quoted spreads. Although daily effective spreads do not decline, intraday analysis demonstrates that there are improvements in effective spreads which are concentrated to those points in time where the bid–ask spread is not constrained by the size of the minimum tick, and where information asymmetries are present. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:56–73, 2014     

Product Differentiation,the Volume of Trade and Profits under Cournot and Bertrand Duopoly

This article analyses how product differentiation affects the volume of trade under duopoly using Shubik-Levitan demand functions rather than the Bowley demand functions used by Bernhofen (2001). The drawback of Bowley demand functions is that an increase in product differentiation increases the size of the market so the increase in the volume of trade may be the result of the increase in the size of the market rather than the increase in product differentiation per se. The Shubik-Levitan demand functions have the advantage that an increase in product differentiation does not increase the size of the market, but consumers still have a ‘love of variety’. It is shown that the volume of trade in terms of quantities falls with increasing product differentiation when the trade cost is relatively low, but rises with increasing product differentiation when the trade cost is relatively high. Among the results, it is shown that the trade liberalisation is more likely to be profitable under Cournot duopoly than under Bertrand duopoly for differentiated products with a positive trade cost.     

Economic Implications of WTO Negotiations on Non‐agricultural Market Access

The economic implications of current WTO negotiations are likely to be far reaching. The World Bank and UNCTAD estimate annual global gains in agriculture and non‐agricultural products (including fish) of about $70−150 billion each under various scenarios and technical assumptions. Liberalising trade in services could be even more important, especially if agreement were reached to facilitate the temporary movement of labour (Mode 4 under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, GATS). Some qualifications, however, are in order. First, gains are likely to be spread unevenly across countries and across sectors; and, second, short‐term adjustment costs might precede long‐term gains. Much depends on how ambitious liberalisation is and on policies to facilitate adjustment. This paper examines the Doha mandate in non‐agricultural market access (NAMA) and the current state of the WTO negotiations, in particular some key proposals being considered at the December 2005 Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong. We analyse various scenarios and their implications for trade, welfare, output, employment, revenues and preferences, as well as the distributional effects across countries and sectors. We note possible adjustment problems related to balance of payments and structural adjustment, as well as revenue and preference losses. These suggest the need for ‘aid for trade’ to help developing countries realise gains possible from WTO negotiations.     

How much does an Illegal Insider Trade?

This paper examines the choice of trade size by an illegal insider. Previous literature (i.e. Meulbroek 1992) tends to focus on the price impact of such a trader. Using a unique data set hand‐collected from the litigation reports of the Securities and Exchange Commission and court cases, we provide evidence, which suggests that the size of an illegal insider's trade is a function of the value of his private information, the probability of detection and the expected penalty if detected. Our results have important implication for security market regulators.     

Adverse selection costs: A study on the Chinese stock market

Employing a bid-ask spread model applicable for order-driven market, this paper decomposes the bid-ask spread of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) into adverse selection and order processing cost components to investigate the relationship between the components of bid-ask spread and order size. It examines the impacts of firm size, price, trading activeness, and volatility on adverse selection cost, and explores the intraday pattern of adverse selection costs and informative trading. Results show that adverse selection costs increase with trade scale. However, order processing costs do not exhibit the economies of scale. Stocks of large firms, which are high-priced and actively traded, have relatively low adverse selection costs; stocks with large volatility have relatively high adverse selection costs. Moreover, this paper finds that the adverse selection component of bid-ask spread in the Chinese stock market exhibits an L-shaped intraday pattern, which implies that heavy trading around market opening is dominated by informative trading, while heavy trading near market closing is dominated by liquidity trading.