Building consensus in strategic decision making: System dynamics as a group support system

System dynamics was originally founded as a method for modeling and simulating the behavior of industrial systems. In recent years it is increasingly employed as a Group Support System for strategic decision-making groups. The model is constructed in direct interaction with a management team, and the procedure is generally referred to as group model-building. The model can be conceptual (qualitative) or a full-blown (quantitative) computer simulation model. In this article, a case is described in which a qualitative system dynamics model was built to support strategic decision making in a Dutch government agency.Since people from different departments held strongly opposite viewpoints on the strategy, the agency had discussed its strategic problem for more than a year, but was obviously not able to reach consensus. The application of group model-building was successful in integrating opposite points of view, as well as in fostering consensus and creating commitment.The purpose of the article is twofold: first, to illustrate the process of group model-building with system dynamics; second, to evaluate why it was successful. Evaluation results reveal the importance of both systemic thinking through model-building and the role of the facilitator in catalyzing the strategic decision-making process.     

A multiobjective decision support system for multiresource forest management

A multiobjective and/or multiperson decision support system for analyzing multiresource forest management problems is developed in this paper. The procedure includes formulating the problem in a multiobjective and group decision making framework, and solving it using two solution techniques which consist of a distance-based compromise programming (CP) and a cooperative game theoretic approach of the Nash equilibrium type. The problem consists of five forest resources management objective functions to be maximized. Solving the problem using the two solution techniques enables determining a satisfactory compromise solution of the five forest resource management objectives. Sensitivity analysis of the two techniques shows compromise programming to be more sensitive to changes in the weight and the p-parameter of the technique while the cooperative game theoretic approach is relatively robust with respect to changes in the worst utility set.     

Organizational influence in a model of the moral decision process of accountants

This paper reports on a survey that investigated the moral decision processes of accountants. A formal belief revision model is adapted and hypotheses based on theorizations from the cognitive-developmental school are tested. The moral decision processes of accountants are hypothesized to be influenced by professional expectations, organizational expectations and internalized expectations. Subjects provided specific demographic data and were asked to access the appropriateness of fourteen principles for making moral decisions in business. Subjects were also asked to indicate which of the fourteen approaches would be most appropriate for resolving each of five ethical situations that are representative of common ethical dilemmas in accounting.Subjects' responses to the appropriateness of the fourteen principles are reduced to two dimensions using factor analysis. The factors are consistent and representative of important underlying dimensions of the stages of moral development. Demographic variables are correlated with the extracted factors using analysis of variance.The results show that subjects consider interpersonal expectations and conformity to be more appropriate than approaches that are self-serving. These findings suggest that ethical decision processes of accountants are influenced by organizational support. Age, gender, and education were also found to influence the moral decision process. Overall, the findings are consistent with the expectations hypothesized from the cognitive-developmental school and suggest that the moral development of accountants is ongoing.     

Enhancing retail location decision support: The development and application of geovisualization

Geovisualization refers to the visual exploration, analysis, synthesis and presentation of geospatial data. This paper presents findings from research that has focused on developing and applying geovisualization techniques and technologies for use within retail location decision support. To date, retailers represent a major user group of geographic information system (GIS) -based decision support technologies, with applications ranging from trade area mapping to store portfolio planning. However, the ability to handle spatial–temporal data, visualize change, and explore the temporal dimension of spatial data is limited within conventional GIS. The paper details the development of a prototype geovisualization system that has been designed to enable visualization of spatial–temporal change of retail-related data. From this explicitly visual paradigm, a number of examples of potential analysis are examined at four different scales of analysis: national, regional, market and micro-level. The paper highlights both the challenges and potential to enhance retail decision support by integrating geovisualization techniques and technology within decision support activities.     

Evaluation of a decision support training effectiveness measure

Resource constraints affect the US Department of Defense's ability to simultaneously sustain current operations and recapitalize for future challenges. An assumption is that decision support training may improve resource allocation decisions; however, few instruments are available to measure the effectiveness of decision support training to verify that assumption. The purpose of this research is to evaluate an instrument to measure decision support training effectiveness. Using data collected from a resource allocation simulation, we found a significant positive relationship between decision support training and outcomes in a controlled field study involving a complex problem. Thus, in the proper context, the resource allocation simulation described herein may be a reliable measure of decision support training effectiveness. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

戊二醛研究现状及开发前景

综述了戊二醛(GA)主要用途并比较目前几种合成工艺方法的优缺点,其中吡喃法synthesis是国内外普遍采用的合成方法,该方法以技术难度小、污染小、产品质量好、工艺成熟而成为目前工业化生产戊二醛的主要方法。着重介绍了前景看好的环戊烯催化氧化合成工艺方法,指出在接近原料产地,特别是中国北方地区建立规模化戊二醛生产装置,具有积极的意义。     

机载信息融合的现状与发展

论述了机载信息融合的典型需求及其应用现状,从理论研究和工程应用两个方面综述 了信息融合的模型结构,并提出适合未来作战飞机的动态信息融合体系结构。系统地梳理了 时空预处理的相关概念,概括了空间配准算法的研究现状及优缺点,指出机载空间配准研究的 紧迫性。结合工程实践,指出目标相关、状态估计和目标识别等模块处理方式与策略的重要性 ,并在此基础上归纳总结了模块处理算法,对机载信息融合算法研究及工程实践有一定的指 导作用。     

我国船舶柴油动力系统的发展现状

目前我国船舶配套企业制造装船的船舶动力推进装置主要是柴油机驱动装置，船用低速柴油机、中速柴油机做主机占船用主机95％以上的份额。本文试对我国船舶柴油动力系统的主机、核心零部件和动力系统集成的发展情况做一梳理和分析。     

Collaborative computing for decision support in cardiovascular consulting

Vascular medicine is a newly developing discipline heavily based on geographically distributed consulting, and there is thus a strong need for computerized decision support in doctor‐to‐doctor collaboration for the management of vascular patients. The latest achievements in collaborative and multimedia computing for group decision support are incorporated into cardiovascular consulting. Feasibility analysis of the two basic components is addressed: (a) the communication system of collaborative computing as identified subject to the specifics of data flow and networking in geographically distributed cardiovascular consulting; and (b) the structure and representations for intelligent software agents that enable transfer of individual expert cardiovascular knowledge, support group brainstorming, and maintain the ongoing learning of group experience and analysis of patients cases.     

A support to consensus reaching in group decision

This paper outlines an interactive aid that facilitates consensus in cooperative decision making or policy recommendation. The approach draws on a previous result which shows that a multiple ranking can be derived from a single relational preference system. In other words, the preferences expressed individually by each member of a group may lead to either unanimous or a majority consensus, with or without concession from individual members.     

A decision support system for optimizing advertising policy of a national tourist office model outline and case study

Application of standard optimization routines to advertising decision-making is straightforward once the relationship linking market response to input has been modeled adequately. Sometimes, however, advertising management has to cope with decision situations where econometrics fail to detect a reliable relationship. A new decision support procedure eliciting managerial judgments on the pairwise relative importance of market share influence factors provides the factor weights otherwise inaccessible by objective parameter estimation. Allocation of an advertising budget to international travel markets thus becomes susceptible to optimization through dynamic programming.     

A GIS-based spatial decision support system for tourists of Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) is filled with an abundance of ecological diversity, historical significance, and recreational opportunities for visitors to explore and experience. The wide range of potential activities available in the park also present a major challenge for park visitors to plan activities that will better meet their preferences and constraints. With the large amounts of spatial and non-spatial data associated with the diverse resources and activities in the park, it is a logical choice to use geographic information systems (GIS) for storing, managing, analyzing, and visualizing the data. Nevertheless, GIS functions alone are insufficient to facilitate activity planning for park visitors. This paper presents a GIS-based spatial decision support system (SDSS) application that integrates GIS functions and SDSS designs with easy-to-use graphic user interfaces to help visitors of GSMNP choose and plan their activities more effectively to match their personal preferences and constraints.     

A system dynamics model as a decision aid in evaluating and communicating complex market entry strategies

Developing a market entry strategy is a critical activity for any firm but all the more so for those firms that wish to successfully compete in today's challenging global economy. Unfortunately, developing a market entry strategy is an ill-structured and complex activity for which structured approaches have proven inadequate. In less structured situations, data driven and model based decision-support systems (DSS) have been shown to be of significant help to decision-makers faced with such tasks. Getting managers to use such systems, however, is a major challenge that has been the subject of considerable research in the field of DSS. As far back as the 1970's scholars identified reasons why managers are reluctant to use such systems. Among the most often cited reasons why managers are reluctant to use these systems are: they do not understand the model inherent in the DSS; they do not know when to use them; they are unable to extend the use of the DSS; or they are unable to explain the model or its output to others. This paper describes the process of building a system dynamics model that can be employed by marketing managers to help them test the effectiveness of different market entry strategies, and equally important to help them to explain the system's logic and output. The model was built in a bottom-up fashion with the help of a team of marketing managers. In this way the team that helped build the model not only felt a sense of ownership concerning the model, but were also be able to better explain and defend their proposed strategy.     

The role of moral intensity and moral philosophy in ethical decision making: a cross‐cultural comparison of China and the European Union

The present study uses cross‐cultural samples of marketing practitioners from two European Union (EU) nations (the United Kingdom and Spain) and China to examine the relationships between moral intensity, personal moral philosophies and ethical decision making. Additionally, cross‐cultural comparisons were made regarding intentions, personal moral philosophies and moral intensity. Results indicate that both samples tend to use the perceived harm construct (e.g. magnitude of consequences, probability of effect, temporal immediacy and concentration of effect) to determine intentions in situations involving ethical issues. However, social consensus tends to be situation‐specific for both groups and proximity seems not to be used at all when making decisions in situations involving ethics. As for personal moral philosophies, idealism is only used by the EU sample; however, for both samples, the use of relativism depends upon the specific situation.     

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.     

On-line group decision support by preference programming in traffic planning

Preference programming is a decision support technique which allows decision makers to give preference statements of weight ratios in terms of intervals instead of single numbers in a value tree. Individual preferences, based on single number statements, can be combined into an interval model, and the negotiation proceeds by focusing on decreasing the width of the intervals. The preference programming approach was evaluated with a realistic traffic planning problem by using the HIPRE 3+ Group Link software. The results from nine test groups indicate that preference programming is an operational group decision support technique which initiates negotiations and efficiently directs the discussion towards issues which are relevant in reaching a consensus.     

预警机自卫系统现状与发展建议

对预警机自身目标特性、面对的主要威胁和预警机自卫系统现状进行了分析,得出了预警机自卫系统存在告警手段单一、自卫手段不足的差距。指出预警机自卫系统要向配备多元化的告警手段、形成复合对抗体系,信息综合处理、形成综合告警信息,有源和无源干扰结合、配备主动攻击手段和加强结构防护等方向发展,可为今后预警机自卫系统设计提供参考。     

Benchmarking the moral decision-making strength of European biotech companies: a European research project

Biotechnology companies have been forced to take account of the social and ethical pressures which increasingly surround their activities. A research project was undertaken with the aims (a) of identifying the practices and procedures which companies put in place as a response to these pressures, and (b) of advising the European Commission on ways by which interaction between these companies and their stakeholders might be improved. Two questionnaires were administered, and although the response rate was not high a reasonably balanced sample was achieved. The results indicated that although there was a high degree of ethical awareness and a willingness to pursue an 'integrity approach' to decision-making as opposed to a 'compliance approach', companies on the whole lacked the institutional tools (codes of ethics, ethics training, and others) which would enable them to operationalise an integrity approach to corporate decision-making.