Information disclosure with leakages

We present a trading game with one insider, many outsiders, liquidity traders and a competitive market maker trading an asset with two value components, a private and a shared one, in a market operating as in Kyle (1985). The insider knows both value components and outsiders only know the shared component. The market maker receives a private signal in the form of a noisy transformation of the shared component, which we refer to as leakages. Before trade begins, the insider can disclose the value of the shared component to the entire market, thus removing the outsiders from the game. When the market maker's signal is sufficiently precise, the insider's benefit from knowing the shared component does not exceed the cost of concurrently trading with the outsiders, thus motivating the insider to reveal the shared component to the entire market. This result provides an explanation as to why some firm managers may naturally prefer to publicly disclose information rather than leaving it in the hands of select investors.     

Informed manipulation

In asymmetric information models of financial markets, prices imperfectly reveal the private information held by traders. Informed insiders thus have an incentive not only to trade less aggressively but also to manipulate the market by trading in the wrong direction and undertaking short-term losses, thereby increasing the noise in the trading process. In this paper we show that when the market faces uncertainty about the existence of the insider in the market and when there is a large number of trading periods before all private information is revealed, long-lived informed traders will manipulate in every equilibrium.     

Endogenizing market institutions: An experimental approach

We study experimental two-sided markets in which the information structure is endogenous. When submitting an offer, a trader decides which other traders will be informed about the offer. This setup allows both a decentralized bargaining market (Chamberlin, J. Polit. Econ. 56 (1948) 95), and a double auction market (Smith J. Polit. Econ. 70 (1962) 111) as special cases. The results show that offers are typically directed to all traders of the other side of the market, but to none of the traders of the same side of the market. Even though traders receive much less information, the resulting market institution leads to the same outcomes in terms of prices and efficiency as a double auction market. In two additional treatments we examine the robustness of these results. First, it is found that the market institution adapts predictably, but not necessarily efficiently, to the imposition of transaction costs. Second, we find that the preference of sellers to conceal offers from competitors is strict. At the same time, sellers benefit collectively when they reveal offers to each other.     

Local coordination and market equilibria

We reformulate the local stability analysis of market equilibria in a competitive market as a local coordination problem in a market game, where the map associating market prices to best-responses of all traders is common knowledge and well-defined both in and out of equilibrium. Initial expectations over market variables differ from their equilibrium values and are not common knowledge. This results in a coordination problem as traders use the structure of the market game to converge back to equilibrium. We analyse a simultaneous move and a sequential move version of the market game and explore the link with local rationalizability.     

Market for Information and Identity Disclosure in an Experimental Open Limit Order Book

This paper analyses the effects of pre‐trade transparency on market quality in an experimental open limit order book preceded by a market for information. The design of the trading game is akin to the system in use in an increasing number of financial markets. We find that the disclosure of traders' identities reduces the incentive to acquire information, liquidity and volatility. We also show that a positive relation exists between the proportion of traders buying information and liquidity. The results are consistent with a standard model of price formation where the number of informed traders is endogenous .     

Informed trading and the ‘leakage’ of information

This paper examines the effect of ‘leakage’ of information, private information becoming available to uninformed traders at a later date, on information acquisition and revelation. Using a Shapley-Shubik market game framework it is shown that (a) if information acquisition by the informed traders is costless, this leads to faster revelation of information; (b) if information acquisition is costly, there may be no acquisition of information; (c) information leakage leads to a fall in value of information but does not affect the incentive for informed traders to sell the information.     

Do insiders have inside tracks: An examination of Wall Street Journal's Inside Track columns?

This study investigates how the stock market reacts to the publications of the Wall Street Journal's “Inside Track” columns in two distinct time periods, 1988 to 1993 and 2002 to 2004. It first examines the stock return behavior during the trading period, the filing period, and the publication day for firms appeared in the Inside Track columns in the period of 1988 to 1993 and then provides a validity test with a sample from 2002 to 2004. The evidence indicates that the market tends to under-react to the insider trading information and insiders tend to be information-motivated traders. The significant filing period returns along with significant publication period returns are consistent with the gradual price adjustment argument. The study also finds that market reactions to the publications are significantly related to insider trading when the trades involve the board chairman.     

Insider Bargaining Power, Starting Wages and Involuntary Unemployment

Recent studies of wage bargaining and unemployment have emphasized the distinction between insiders and outsiders, and that unions act in the interest of insiders. Yet it is typically assumed that insiders and recently hired outsiders are paid the same wage. We consider a model where the starting wage may differ from the insider wage, but incentive constraints associated with turnover affect the form of the contract. We examine under what conditions the starting wage is linked to the insider wage so that increased bargaining power of insiders raises the starting wage and reduces the hiring of outsiders.
JEL classification : J 23; J 31; J 33     

Public Information Quality with Monopolistic Sellers

We show that in markets with asymmetric information, even if there is full agreement on the choice of optimal information quality, entrusting the choice of (unverifiable) public information quality to traders who benefit from such information leads to inefficiencies. However, delegation of information quality choice to an independent agent who is precluded from sharing in trading profits results in efficient implementation. This result provides a game-theoretic rationale for current institutional arrangements where a private organization that is independent of market traders, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, determines the standards for public disclosures.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: D41, D42, D82.     

Herding effects in order driven markets: The rise and fall of gurus

We introduce an order driver market model with heterogeneous traders that imitate each other on a dynamic network structure. The communication structure evolves endogenously via a fitness mechanism based on agents performance. We assess under which assumptions imitation, among noise traders, can give rise to the emergence of gurus and their rise and fall in popularity over time. We study the wealth distribution of gurus, followers and non followers and show that traders have an incentive to imitate and a desire to be imitated since herding turns out to be profitable. The model is then used to study the effect that different competitive strategies (i.e. chartist & fundamentalist) have on agents performance. Our findings show that positive intelligence agents cannot invade a market populated by noise traders when herding is high.     

Information aggregation in financial markets with career concerns

What are the equilibrium features of a dynamic financial market in which traders care about their reputation for ability? We modify a standard sequential trading model to include traders with career concerns. We show that this market cannot be informationally efficient: there is no equilibrium in which prices converge to the true value, even after an infinite sequence of trades. We characterize the most revealing equilibrium of this game and show that an increase in the strength of the traders' reputational concerns has a negative effect on the extent of information that can be revealed in equilibrium but a positive effect on market liquidity.     

The efficiency of competitive mechanisms under private information

We consider the efficiency properties of exchange economies where privately informed traders behave strategically. Specifically, a competitive mechanism is any mapping of traders’ reports about their types to an equilibrium price vector and allocation of the reported economy. In our model, some traders may have non-vanishing impact on prices and allocations regardless of the size of the economy. Although truthful reporting by all traders cannot be achieved, we show that, given any desired level of approximation, there is such that any Bayesian-Nash equilibrium of any competitive mechanism of any private information economy with or more traders leads, with high probability, to prices and allocations that are close to a competitive equilibrium of the true economy. In particular, allocations are approximately efficient. A key assumption is that there is small probability that traders behave non-strategically.     

Art market inefficiency

Art is often used as an investment vehicle. Given the importance of market efficiency in finance, we use a large auction-based index to test whether the art market is weakly efficient. Evidence reveals that returns on artworks exhibit high positive auto-correlation. We attribute this result to price truncation resulting from unobservable reserve prices in auctions. We conclude that the art market is not efficient, mainly because price formation is opaque to outsiders who lack information on unsold artworks.     

‘Us’ and ‘Them’: the origin of identity,and its economic implications

Abstract We investigate the origins of identity and the innate proclivity to draw a distinction between ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’. We propose an evolutionary explanation: we argue that identity arises because it facilitates survival. In an evolutionary setting we endogenize preferences and demonstrate that the evolutionarily stable preferences fashioned by natural selection would distinguish between insiders and outsiders. We then work out the implications of such preferences in two contemporary scenarios, one entailing rent‐seeking behaviour and the other involving public good provision. Our results are in conformity with empirical evidence.     

Rock around the clock: An agent-based model of low- and high-frequency trading

We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch between fundamentalist and chartist strategies. By contrast, high-frequency traders activation is event-driven and depends on price fluctuations. High-frequency traders use directional strategies to exploit market information produced by low-frequency traders. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that the model replicates the main stylized facts of financial markets. Furthermore, we find that the presence of high-frequency traders increases market volatility and plays a fundamental role in the generation of flash crashes. The emergence of flash crashes is explained by two salient characteristics of high-frequency traders, i.e., their ability to i. generate high bid-ask spreads and ii. synchronize on the sell side of the limit order book. Finally, we find that higher rates of order cancellation by high-frequency traders increase the incidence of flash crashes but reduce their duration.     

Exploring the role of pesticide traders in protecting farmers' benefit

Owing to the inadequacy of the public extension services, farmers in developing countries often rely on the suggestions of agricultural input traders. As profit-making agents, these traders, in their turn, may have an incentive to exploit farmers by suggesting relatively expensive inputs. In this study, the Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) estimation method is applied to demonstrate that input traders in many ways play the substitute role of the public extension agents in a developing country. In the process, this study relied on primary information collected from 379 farmers in Bangladesh in two seasons (N = 758). Then the ESR estimation procedure is applied to predict farmer's expenditure on pesticides, conditional on whether or not they rely on traders' advice. Findings of this study suggest that pesticide expenditures are not statistically different between the farmers that rely on traders' suggestions and those that do not. The study thus concludes that by providing unbiased, useful information to the client farmers, profit-maximizing agricultural input traders render the services of public extension workers, which corrects possible market failures.     

A game theory model of regulatory response to insider trading

We develop a model which can help in explaining the evolving regulatory regime around insider trading. We form a simple sequential game-theoretical model of insider trading transactions and, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to determine equilibrium, we show that costly investigations and low penalties incentivize traders to engage in illegal transactions. While the model helps to explain stiffer action by regulatory bodies, the question remains as to whether the elevated penalty levels are sufficient to prevent further insider trading.     

Does Transparency of Central Banks Produce Multiple Equilibria on Currency Markets?

A recent strand of literature shows that multiple equilibria in models of markets for pegged currencies vanish if there is slightly diverse information among traders; see Morris and Shin (2001). It is known that this approach works only if the common knowledge in the market is not too precise. This has led to the conclusion that central banks should try to avoid making their information common knowledge. We develop a model in which more transparency of the central bank implies better private information, because each trader utilises public information according to her own private information. Thus, transparency makes multiple equilibria less likely.     

Stackelberg financial-leader in insider trading model

In this paper, we extend the Jain-Mirman [Jain, N., & Mirman, L. (2000). Real and financial effects of insider trading with correlated signals. Economic Theory, 16, 333–353, Jain, N., & Mirman, L. (2002). Effects of insider trading under different market structures. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42, 19–39] and the Daher-Mirman [Daher, W., & Mirman, L. (2006). Cournot duopoly and insider trading with two insiders. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46, 530–551, Daher, W., & Mirman, L. (2007). Market structure and insider trading. International Review of Economics and Finance, 16, 306–331] papers on competition, and postulate that the competition among the insiders in the financial market be Stackelberg. However, an owner high in the organizational hierarchy, who designs manager compensation mechanisms and chooses a manager to serve his purpose, should have information on the manager's reaction and act as a Stackelberg leader in the financial sector. We show that owner's profit can definitely enlarged while the manager's profits may decrease or increase depending on the variances in the two sectors, which are the exogenous parameters.     

Parimutuel contests with strategic risk-sensitive bettors

Existing models in the parimutuel betting literature typically explain betting data by either assuming a single, representative bettor with certain risk preferences or by assuming that a number of risk neutral bettors compete strategically within a game theoretic framework. We construct a theoretical framework of parimutuel markets in which we model both strategic interaction and individual bettor risk preferences, distinguishing between sophisticated insiders and recreational outsiders. We solve this model analytically for the optimal insider betting amount in a static symmetric Nash equilibrium. A new data set of 126 million individual horse race bets in New Zealand from 2006 to 2014 allows us to calibrate the model. We find that insiders (those betting $100 or more) outperform outsiders by 7.5% in terms of realized returns. The best fit of the model to the data is obtained when insiders are assumed to be risk neutral and to have an information advantage of 0.08 in probability terms. This finding provides empirical support for the common assumption of risk neutrality in strategic interaction models of parimutuel betting.