隐性交易成本与资产定价的实证研究

本文利用上证180指数成份股票的高频数据计算隐性交易成本．探讨其与资产定价的关系。研究结果发现：1、隐性交易成本与换手率、规模和收益率都存在着明显的线性负相关关系。在股票收益率下降时期，隐性交易成本很可能通过流动性深度成本间接影响股票收益率。2、较之隐性交易成本，规模因素与换手率因素对收益率的影响有着更好的测度性，因为这两个因素与流动性深度成本也有着显著相关性。3、隐性交易成本与规模因素整体上是线性负相关关系．分段上的关系则很可能是凹函数与凸函数的组合。     

The performance of black-owned commercial banks: A comparative analysis

The objective of this study was to examine performance differences among black banks of different asset sizes, as compared with average nonminority banks of similar asset size from 1985 to 1991. The study found that large black banks with assets over $50 million outperformed smaller black banks with assets less than $50 million in terms of return on assets (ROA) and return on owners’ equity. Also, when compared with average nonminority banks with assets less than $300 million, the large black banks exhibited a statistically significant higher ROA than average nonminority banks in 1985 through 1987. However, the differences were found to be statistically insignificant in terms of return on owners’ equity (ROE) during the study period. Regression results show that provision for loan loss, high liquidity, and investment in treasury and government securities continue to impact negatively on small black banks’ performance but these factors have no statistically significant impact on large black banks’ performance.     

Can Fundamentals Explain Cross-Country Correlations of Asset Returns?

Previous studies show that existing correlations between national returns are higher than correlations between the national growth rates of fundamental variables. This paper examines the ability of intertemporal asset pricing models to explain cross-country correlations of national returns. We find that when capital markets are assumed to be fully integrated, a simple intertemporal general equilibrium model is able to explain the observed co-variability of domestic asset returns but generates too little variability in those returns. Results improve considerably if a less restrictive version is employed. In that setting, both domestic variability and cross-country co-variability of returns are consistent with capital market integration. JEL no. G12, G15, E44     

Effects of Patent Policy on Income and Consumption Inequality in a R&D Growth Model

To analyze the effects of patent policy on growth and inequality, this article develops a quality‐ladder model with wealth heterogeneity and elastic labor supply. The model predicts that strengthening patent protection increases (a) economic growth by stimulating spending on research and development and (b) income inequality by raising the return on assets. Elastic labor supply creates an additional effect on income inequality. As for consumption inequality, the effect is ambiguous and depends on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Calibrating the model to the U.S. data shows that strengthening patent protection increases income inequality by more than consumption inequality, and this pattern is consistent with the data.     

Constrained Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization with Alternative Return Estimation

This paper studies the problem of asset allocation in a mean-variance framework. The theoretical model of portfolio optimization is specified and then applied to a long panel data set from historic to most recent times, March 1990 – March 2013. The paper contributes in three ways. First, an alternative asset return model is proposed that combines the historical returns, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and returns estimated based on firm fundamentals. These return estimates enter the optimization problem. The second contribution is the application of an improved covariance matrix estimator that has superior properties compared to the typical sample covariance estimator. Third, the paper proposes two investments strategies. The first proposition suggests always choosing the maximized Sharpe ratio portfolio and the second one, the portfolio with the highest information ratio. The nature of both strategies is designed for investors with different appetites for risk. The performance of these choices is analyzed in light of four types of constraints: upper/lower investment limits, group constraints and transaction costs. The one-period optimal investment portfolio is rebalanced at quarterly intervals. Both strategies are benchmarked against an alternative investment choice such as holding the S&P 500 index, or investing in a risk-free asset such as a bond. Portfolio analysis and backtesting reveal that the strategies are superior to simply holding an equally weighted portfolio, a risk-free asset or the S&P 500 index.     

Keynes's Approach to Money: An Assessment After Seventy Years

This paper first examines two approaches to money adopted by Keynes in the General Theory. The first is the more familiar ‘supply and demand’ equilibrium approach of Chapter 13 incorporated within conventional macroeconomics textbooks. Indeed, even Post Keynesians utilizing Keynes's ‘finance motive’ or the ‘horizontal’ money supply curve adopt similar methodology. The second approach of the General Theory is presented in Chapter 17, where Keynes drops ‘money supply and demand’ in favor of a liquidity preference approach to asset prices that offers a more satisfactory treatment of money's role in constraining effective demand. In the penultimate section, I return to Keynes's earlier work in the Treatise on Money as well as the early drafts of the General Theory to obtain a better understanding of the nature of money. I conclude with policy implications.     

Dynamic Portfolio Adjustment and Capital Controls: A Euler Equation Approach

We present a multiasset dynamic portfolio balance model that is based on the maximization of an intertemporal utility function in consumption when investors operate under uncertainty, quadratic adjustment costs, and capital market regulations. We estimate the model's structural parameters on quarterly portfolio data of the German private sector. Asset demand is insensitive to return changes, although the coefficients are significant. Adjustment costs are low but highly significant, giving rise to moderate lags of adjustment. Still, existing capital controls and adjustment costs cannot explain the currently observed “home bias” in the portfolio. Overall, our results imply a strong rejection of the portfolio model.     

Monopoly aspects of political parties

Conclusions The standard economic model of a natural monopoly offers a useful conceptual means to examine some of the characteristics of political parties. The declining cost curves for producing political products are attributable to the indivisible nature of the majority asset. In the absence of subsidies, political parties can be expected to produce at the point where their marginal evaluation equals average cost. Thus, they have an incentive to seek subsidies in order to expand production to the point where marginal evaluation equals marginal cost. While this is optimizing behavior on the part of the individual party, it may not be optimal in competing for the majority asset, because this process decreases the value of resources that the other party has expended towards acquiring the asset. Parties will determine their optimal output calculating only the private costs and benefits to be secured through party competition, but will ignore the social costs caused by the externality they generate in competing for a fixed percentage of votes. As a result, optimizing behavior by the individual parties may lead to an excess of resources devoted to producing political decisions.     

Systemically important banks: an analysis for the European banking system

In this paper we perform an empirical analysis to identify systemically important banks by a few individual bank characteristics that are easy to observe in practice. This analysis builds on a new method to construct measures of systemic relevance of individual institutions that are consistent with a risk analysis at the level of the banking system, taking correlations in bank asset returns into account. We derive asset return correlations for a sample of European publicly traded banks from market data and construct two risk measures: incremental value at risk and conditional expected shortfall. Incremental value at risk quantifies the individual contributions of banks to the system’s Value-at-Risk. Conditional expected shortfall measures the increase in the expected system wide deposit insurance liability that would follow from the default of an institution. The analysis of hypothetical defaults of institutions is performed consistently with the observed distribution of asset returns by using the conditional distribution. Both measures are then analyzed in a panel regression where individual characteristics are used to explain incremental value at risk and conditional expected shortfall.     

An approach to intertemporal equilibrium with production

Conclusion This paper is devoted to considering the implications of intertemporal economic equilibrium in a model with production. To this end, a differential game with a Leontief technology is formulated. In the two-person zero-sum game, it was found that an intertemporal equilibrium is feasible. Furthermore, it was found to be decentralizable, with a required informational exchange mechanism no more onerous than in other decentralized procedures, including the tatonnement processes.In the non-zero-sum case decentralization is impossible for closed loop solutions. The interaction of the strategy sets introduces externalities even when production technology is convex. Finally, while a Nash solution is guaranteed, Pareto optimality requires a two-stage optimization approach.This paper was presented at the International Conference of the Atlantic Economic Society held in Vienna, Austria, May 10–18, 1979.     

The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications

The shadow price, or ‘social cost’, of carbon isan important indicator of the global incremental damage doneby emitting greenhouse gases today. Cost–benefit analysiswould set the optimal amount of greenhouse-gas-emission reductionat the point where this social cost just equals the incrementalcost of controlling emissions. The higher the value for thesocial cost of carbon, the more control is warranted. This comparisonassumes that cost–benefit analysis is the correct wayof determining climate-change policy, and many believe thisis not the case because of the very long-term, irreversible,and potentially catastrophic nature of global warming. But,in the short run at least, a comparison of cost and benefitsis required, and, in any event, all decisions imply costs andbenefits. But what is the ‘right’ figure for thesocial cost of carbon? This paper reviews the UK government'sassessment of the cost and concludes that it has been set fartoo high because of a misreading of the integrated assessmentmodels used to balance costs and benefits. Moreover, adoptionof the UK government's shadow price would have formidable implicationsfor energy policy in the UK, and for policies on afforestation.     

Complete work-up of the one-sector scalar-capital theory of interest rate: Third installment auditing Sraffa’s never-completed “Critique of Modern Economic Theory”

For future vector analysis of heterogeneous non-aggregatable capitals, we exhaustively analyze a labor-corn-scalar capital intertemporal model with joint or single-good production, in both neoclassical Clarkian or Sraffa–von Neumann alternative discrete technologies. Our novel Master Function proves qualitative parallelism of non-spurious marginalisms for Clark and Sraffa technologies. Importantly, most “strange” phenomena stressed by J. Robinson-Sraffa, do not trace to capital heterogeneity: a one-capital scenario, under joint production, can invalidate Ricardo’s fundamental inverse tradeoff between profit and wage rate. Still, though, all competitive equilibria obey intertemporal Pareto optimality and agree with Senior’s filter-down apologetics.     

Dynamic consistency and monopoly

A wide variety of papers study the time consistency issues and commitment problems associated with imperfectly competitive durable goods manufacturers who sell their output. Using a simple two-period model the authors show that this sort of commitment problem may occur even if the monopolist produces non-durable output. The model assumes consumers maximize their utility through the choice of a non-durable consumption good and saving through an asset that provides future returns and consumption flow. The analysis indicates that non-durable goods manufacturers with market power will wish to announce future prices that are sub-optimal (dynamically inconsistent) when the period is reached due to the impact on consumers' wealth constraint and current purchasing behavior. Thus, the so-called durable-goods monopoly commitment problem may also occur in non-durable goods industries. The model suggests that any type of intertemporal linkage may lead to time consistency and commitment problems for imperfectly competitive firms.     

财务比率的行业特征:差异性及收敛性——基于中国上市公司的非参数检验

本文采用非参数方法对中国上市公司财务比率在行业间的差异性和行业内的收敛性进行了检验。结果表明，中国上市公司的财务比率存在显著的行业差异，总负债率、总资产周转率和存货周转率的行业差异相当稳定，而流动比率、净资产收益率和净利润率的行业差异不具有稳定性。我们所考察的六种财务比率都显著地向行业均值收敛，但调整成本和行业特性的差异导致了不同的财务比率具有不同的收敛速度。     

Rational Reserve Pricing in Sequential Auctions

A durable asset is sold in a sealed-bid first price auction. The seller sets an undisclosed reservation price. The seller has no prior information respecting the private valuations of the bidders. If no bid exceeds the reservation price, the asset is sequentially auctioned until it is sold. A rational seller will design an intertemporal series of reservation prices that maximize the discounted value of the transaction price. To accomplish this, the seller uses the history of unsuccessful bids to estimate the probability density functions governing the maximum bids at each hypothetical future auction date.     

基于电动车研发成本补贴的回报共享制度研究

从制度设计的角度论证电动车企业研发行为与政府补贴的关系。以电动车企业研发行为为例将回报共享制度应用其中,建立基于成本补贴的回报共享制度模型,推导出电动车企业在有无成本补贴情况下的个体效用最大下的最优研发努力水平。研究表明,具有成本补贴的回报共享制度下的个体企业研发努力水平要高于单纯的回报共享制度下的个体研发努力水平。此时调整研发成本补贴系数能够实现改进的回报共享制度下的个体企业研发努力水平最优值与群体收益最大的努力水平最优值相等。     

Demand for cash balances in a cashless economy

We study the demand for cash balances in the year 2050, when people exclusively use debit cards for all transactions. Money no longer serves as a medium of exchange. However, money still retains its roles as unit of account, numeraire and store of value. We capture these roles in a multi-period model with intertemporal uncertainty regarding prices and the interest rate on bonds, the alternative asset. A key result of our analysis is that the standard negative relationship between money demand and the bond interest rate is seen to be part of a larger economic reality encompassing a broader range of empirically testable implications, including the possibility that the relationship may be positive. We develop formal structural restrictions under which the positive relationship between cash balance demand and the bond interest rate is not only a possible outcome, but an explicit prediction of the model.     

Risk-free bond prices in incomplete markets with recursive multiple-prior utilities

We consider an exchange economy under uncertainty, in which agents' utility functions may be recursive and the expected utility calculation may be based on multiple priors. The utility functions representing risk attitudes and intertemporal substitution are negative exponential functions. These utility functions and the access to asset markets may arbitrarily differ across agents. We prove that the risk-free bond price goes down (and the interest rate goes up) monotonically as the market incompleteness diminishes. We also find the range of equilibrium bond prices that depends on the primitives of the economy but not on the structures of asset markets.     

流动性风险与资产定价:来自中国股市的证据

LCAPM（基于流动性风险的CAPM模型）是Acharya和Pedersen（2005，Journal of Financial Economics）提出的．它将流动性风险可能影响资产价格的多种方式纳入一个统一的框架。本文利用LCAPM对中国股市进行检验．在该模型中，证券的收益依赖于它的期望流动性及其与收益（包括个股与市场收益）之间的协方差。检验结果发现，我国股市的风险升水在大盘升降区间体现了不同的特征：无论在总区间还是分时段，LCAPM都能更好的拟合资产收益；在控制公司规模之后，效果依然稳健。这说明流动性在我国股市的资产定价上有重要影响。     

Does international knowledge spillover always lead to a positive trickle down?

This paper demonstrates the negative effects of positive international knowledge spillovers on economic growth. In other words, we obtain the possibility that educational investment for human capital is crowded out under global economic growth. To this end, we assume the phenomenon of international knowledge spillover, effects of population growth on human capital accumulation, and non-unity intertemporal elasticity of substitution in an endogenous growth model along the lines developed by Arnold. This model comprises R&D activities along the lines proposed by Jones and human capital accumulation along the lines proposed by Uzawa and Lucas. The results show that even if international spillover increases, low-growth traps without human capital investment emerge in some cases, for example, an economy with a large intertemporal elasticity of substitution and a high population growth rate.