The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time.     

Informal employment in service industries: estimations from nationally representative Labour Force Survey data of Russian Federation

ABSTRACT

As the largest post-Soviet transition economy with substantial labour immigration and a considerable informal-sector Russia serves as an interesting case to study informal employment in the service and non-service economic sectors. The study fills the gap of the lack of empirical papers grounded on the reliable massive individual data. This article discusses almost twenty years’ dynamics of informal employment rates within the service and non-service industries based on the nationally representative Labour Force Survey primary data, collected quarterly for 2010–2015 with a sample size of about 200 thousand respondents per quarter. The unexpected finding is that the rate of informal employment is higher in non-service economic activities. Informal workers in the service sector in Russia are typically male, not very young, without tertiary education, living in urban areas. The paper also provides a comparative regression analysis on the probability of being informally employed in the service and non-service sectors.     

中国服务业技术效率的系统性分析

本文利用随机前沿分析法研究后发现,从行业层面看,管制松的行业技术效率比管制紧、进入壁垒高的服务行业高,技术效率由东部向中西部呈递减,各地区存在行业分布的结构性差异;2004-2009年的服务业技术效率先小幅上升后下降,而且有些行业具有抗外界经济波动冲击的特性。从上市公司层面看,进入壁垒越高,行业技术效率越高,民营企业技术效率低于国有或集体所有制企业。通过对比发现,这很有可能是管制引起的,高进入壁垒给在位垄断企业带来了好处,但导致了行业内部的发展不平衡。     

A reexamination of the demand for UK exports: Evidence from an error correction model

This article examines the demand for UK exports and is focused on five issues. It starts by examining the stochastic properties of the relevant time series. Special attention is paid to the model specification, its dynamic structure, and its temporal stability. In addition, the potential effect of exchange rate uncertainty on export demand is considered. The empirical results show that the determinants of the demand for UK exports are foreign economic activity, export price, foreign prices, and exchange rate uncertainty. The results further indicate that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on exports and that the overall export demand equation requires the inclusion of such a variable in order to exhibit structural stability. Trade policy in the UK, therefore must take into account the response of export demand to changes in real exchange rate volatility.     

Chaos and the exchange rate

Chaotic exchange rate models are structural models built in discrete time (difference equations), and show that with orthodox assumptions (PPP, interest parity, etc) and introducing plausible nonlinearities in the dynamic equations, it is possible to obtain a model capable of giving rise to chaotic motion. However, none of these models is estimated, and the conclusions are based on simulations: the empirical validity of these models is not tested. In this paper, a continuous time (the exchange rate is obviously a continuous variable) exchange rate model is built as a non-linear set of three differential equations and its theoretical properties (steady state, stability, etc,) analysed. The model is then econometrically estimated in continuous time with Italian data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. This paper also shows that the continuous time estimation of economic models built as systems of nonlinear differential equations is a very powerful tool in the hands of the profession.     

Regional and institutional heterogeneity matters! Revisiting trade effects of the euro

The creation of a single currency is deemed to produce further heterogeneity in regional trade, as regions differ in their exposure to trade with other European countries. It is possible to disentangle two separate effects on bilateral trade, namely the “exchange rate volatility effect” (from exchange rate fixing in 1999) and the pure “common currency effect” (resulting from the issuing of a new currency in 2002). This paper presents an empirical analysis that shows evidence of a regional concentration of currency union effects in a few Spanish regions.     

Do interest groups affect US immigration policy?

While anecdotal evidence suggests that interest groups play a key role in shaping immigration policy, there is no systematic empirical analysis of this issue. In this paper, we construct an industry-level dataset for the United States, by combining information on the number of temporary work visas with data on lobbying activity associated with immigration. We find robust evidence that both pro- and anti-immigration interest groups play a statistically significant and economically relevant role in shaping migration policy across sectors. Barriers to migration are lower in sectors in which business interest groups incur larger lobbying expenditures and higher in sectors where labor unions are more important.     

An ‘Algorithmic Links with Probabilities’ Concordance for Trademarks with an Application Towards Bilateral IP Flows

Trademarks (TMs) shape the competitive landscape of markets for goods and services in all countries. As a key element of branding, they can inform consumers about the quality and content of goods and services. Yet, researchers are largely unable to conduct rigorous empirical analysis of TMs in the global economy because TM data and economic data are organised differently and cannot be analysed jointly at the industry or sector level. We propose an ‘algorithmic links with probabilities’ (ALP) approach to match TM data to economic data and enable joint analysis with these data. Specifically, we construct a NICE class‐level concordance that maps TM data into trade and industry categories forward and backward. This concordance allows researchers to analyse differences in TM usage across both economic and TM sectors. We apply this ALP concordance for TMs to characterise patterns in TM registrations across countries and industries and to investigate some key determinants of international technology flows by comparing bilateral TM registrations and bilateral patent grants. We find that international patenting and TM flows are jointly determined by trade‐related influences with significant differences in intellectual property usage across industry sectors and income levels.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Interest Rates in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of the bank lending rate in Ghana using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. We found evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the average lending rate charged by commercial banks and its determining factors. In the long run, bank lending rates in Ghana are positively influenced by nominal exchange rates and Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate but negatively with fiscal deficit, real GDP and inflation. We also find positive dependence of the bank lending rate on exchange rates, and the monetary policy rate both in the short and long run. Specifically, our findings reveal that the Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate and the exchange rate, by far, show strong contemporaneous effects on the average bank lending rate in Ghana.     

中国环境规制的出口效应及其行业差异

文章基于环境规制对出口贸易的影响机理,运用半对数固定效应变系数Panel Data模型,以中国14个工业行业为例,从行业异质性视角实证研究了环境规制的出口效应。回归估计结果显示：环境规制变化可以较好地解释中国出口规模变动,环境规制效率、环境规制强度、人民币平均汇率、资本劳动比、成本费用利润率等因素的交互作用驱动了出口增长,但各个变量对不同行业出口的影响程度及其显著性水平存在明显差异;环境规制效率、环境规制强度对大多数行业出口存在显著正效应,但在汇率、产业结构、成本加成能力等控制因素作用下,其影响程度及其显著性有所削弱,不确定性有所增强。同时,文章基于实证结论就如何完善我国环境规制与促进出口贸易可持续发展提出了相关建议。     

聚集密度、多样化与旅游业发展:基于省际动态面板数据的实证研究

文章基于旅游产业的特点,借助2000-2009年间的有关旅游统计数据,构建了衡量旅游业聚集密度和多样化的指标,运用动态面板数据模型实证检验了产业聚集对旅游业发展的作用。结果发现,旅游业聚集密度的提升促进了旅游产业的发展。这一分析结论验证了集聚经济效应的存在,也为解释我国旅游业发展的区域差异提供了一个较好的理论视角。     

Complaints-handling processes and organisational benefits: An ISO 10002-based investigation

Abstract

Benchmarking data provided by 144 organisations across four industry sectors are consolidated and mined to generate insights into the relationship between complaints-handling processes, as defined in ISO 10002, the International Standard for Complaints Handling, and a number of marketing-related outcomes. Factor analysis of the 17 complaints-handling process variables yields five factors accounting for 62.6% of the overall variance. The most important factors are: visibility and accessibility of the complaints-handling policy and process; easy-to-use process for all complainants; and responsiveness of the complaints-handling process. Collectively these factors account for 24% of the variance in the desired marketing-related outcomes, most notably levels of customer advocacy and customer satisfaction. Although there have been a number of empirical investigations of International Standards, this is the first empirical study to investigate the influence of ISO 10002-conformant complaints-handling processes on marketing-related and broader outcomes. We conclude that complaints-handling processes that conform to ISO 10002 can yield significant marketing-related benefits, and we make recommendations for marketing practitioners.     

Retail Philanthropy: Firm Size,Industry, and Business Cycle

This article investigates the effects of firm size, profitability, industry affiliation, and the business cycle on retailer philanthropy. The importance of industry and firm effects on giving was analyzed with regression models using industry-fixed effects as well as firm strategy variables. The analysis included instrumental variables methodology to account for simultaneity in the charitable giving–profits relationship. Data were gathered from the IRS Corporate Statistics of Income Sourcebook, data that provide firm size class measures covering the entire firm size distribution ranging from small retailers up to large multi-national retail firms. Retailer philanthropy was measured as the ratio of charitable contributions to total receipts. Important findings include a cubic relationship between retailer philanthropy and firm size; industry effects stronger than those observed for retail profit; and the absence of business cycle effects. The empirical research relating retail charitable giving to firm attributes including firm size and advertising, industry and business cycle factors are unique in the business ethics literature. Prior studies regarding the importance of industry on charitable giving utilized data across broad sectors of the economy. Firms from different sectors could be expected to differ in philanthropic approach due to differences in public contact as well as differences in public relations exposure. The strong industry effects reported for this sample of exclusively retail firms, with similar public contact, provide strong evidence for the importance of industry in determining firms’ charitable strategies.     

生产者服务业对制造业的贡献和拉动作用——基于合肥市的实证研究

随着经济全球化和国际产业专业化分工的发展,现代服务业特别是生产者服务业逐渐成为现代经济体中增长最为迅速和最具有活力的产业之一,其对制造业的贡献和拉动作用也愈发明显.基于合肥市生产者服务业对制造业贡献和拉动作用的实证分析,提出相应政策建议:合肥市应该大力发展物流服务业,全力发展商务服务业,加快发展金融服务业,进而形成发达的生产者服务业,全力打造中部地区现代制造业基地.     

The components of interest rate swap spreads: Theory and international evidence

This article contains both a theoretical and an empirical analysis of the components of interest rate swap spreads defined as the difference between the fixed swap rate and the risk‐free rate of equal maturity. The components are determined by expected LIBOR spreads, default risk, and market structure. A model of the swap market incorporating debt market imperfections and corporate financing choices is used to explain participation by both swap buyers and sellers. The model also motivates an empirical relationship between swap spreads and the slope of the risk‐free term structure. The article then provides empirical evidence on the cross‐sectional and time‐series variation of swap spreads in seven international markets. The evidence is consistent with the suggested components across both markets and swap maturities as well as over time. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:347–387, 2003     

Exchange Rates,Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.     

Specialization dynamics

This paper proposes a new empirical framework for analyzing specialization dynamics. A country’s pattern of specialization is viewed as a distribution across sectors, and statistical techniques for analyzing the evolution of this entire distribution are employed. The empirical framework is implemented using data on 20 industries in seven OECD countries since 1970. We find substantial mobility in patterns of specialization. Over time horizons of 5 years, this is largely explained by forces common across countries, including world prices and common changes in technical efficiency. Over longer time horizons, country-specific changes in factor endowments become more important. There is no evidence of an increase in countries’ overall degree of specialization.     

To Be or Not to Be [Locked in]: An Investigation of Buyers' Commitments of Dedicated Investments to Support New Transactions

ABSTRACT

This study draws on two prominent theoretical frameworks, transaction cost analysis and social exchange, which serve as the basis for much of the empirical literature in relationship marketing to investigate the investment behavior of industrial buyers. Specifically, we examine the manner by which situational and contextual factors identified from those frameworks influence buyers' commitment of dedicated investments to support new transactions within ongoing exchange relationships. Our empirical results show that buyer dedicated investments are positively influenced by the extent of supplier dedicated investments, thus supporting the safeguarding rationale posed by transaction cost theory and the reciprocal nature of commitments derived from social exchange theory. Such investments are also positively influenced by the extent of past adaptations made within the pre-existing relationship, consistent with the generalized hostage explanation from the transaction cost literature and theories of the incremental development of relationships. These investments are also positively influenced by the size of the procurement but negatively influenced when a multisourcing purchasing strategy is being pursued, which are consistent with means to manage dependency. It was also found that buyer investments are not uniformly influenced by perceived environmental uncertainty related to supply and market sectors and technological conditions, suggesting that buyers respond to the risks associated with each of these environmental sectors in a distinctive manner.     

Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada

Several empirical studies suggest that exchange rate pass-through has declined in recent years among industrialized countries. Results for Canada also indicate that import and consumer prices have become less responsive to exchange-rate movements in the 1990s. These findings are based on reduced-form regressions that are typically motivated by partial-equilibrium models of pricing. This paper uses instead a structural, general-equilibrium approach to test the premise that exchange rate pass-through has decreased in Canada. Our approach consists in estimating a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model for Canada over two sub-samples, which cover the periods before and after the adoption of inflation targeting by the Bank of Canada. We then use impulse-response analysis to assess the stability of exchange rate pass-through across the two sub-samples. Our results indicate that pass-through to Canadian import prices has been rather stable, while pass-through to Canadian consumer prices has declined in recent years. Counterfactual experiments reveal that the change in monetary policy regime is largely responsible for this decline.     

Exchange rate policies in Asia in an era of financial globalisation: An empirical assessment

Ebbs and flows of capital have complicated macroeconomic policy management for all emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) regardless of whether they have adopted flexible or managed exchange rate regimes. In the light of the renewed interest in the trilemma versus dilemma debate, we contribute to the related literature by presenting an empirical analysis of exchange rate flexibility and intervention for selected Asian EMDEs over the time period 2001–2016. In addition to estimating augmented Frankel–Wei regressions, we employ a generalised auto‐regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to assess the extent of foreign exchange (FX) intervention and whether there exist any asymmetries in the way countries intervene. Our results show that although there is greater flexibility in exchange rates, there is evidence of some countries potentially using FX intervention to manage currency movements. We also find evidence of asymmetry in intervention where exchange rate volatility responds more emphatically to FX sales than purchases.