Consumer misperceptions,uncertain fundamentals,and the business cycle

This paper estimates the importance of shocks to consumer misperceptions “noise shocks” for U.S. business cycle fluctuations. I embed imperfect information as in Lorenzoni (2009) into a Smets and Wouters (2007)-type DSGE model. Agents only observe aggregate productivity and a signal about the permanent component contaminated with noise. Based on this information agents form beliefs about the temporary and the permanent component of productivity. Shocks to the signal (noise shocks) trigger aggregate fluctuations unrelated to changes in productivity. Bayesian estimation shows that noise shocks explain up to 14 percent of output and up to 25 percent of consumption fluctuations. Nominal rigidities and the specification of the monetary policy rule are crucial for the importance of noise shocks. These features help to resolve conflicting results in the previous literature.     

Renegotiation Facilitates Contractual Incompleteness

Attempts to economize on bargaining costs imply that two parties may write a contract which is incomplete in the sense that each party tacitly cedes some decision rights to the other. If decision makers can be disciplined by the threat of ex post renegotiation of decisions initially delegated to them, contracts may be even more incomplete. In the limit, the parties may leave all nonprice decisions out of the contract. By thus arguing that the threat of renegotiation facilitates contractual incompleteness, the paper reverses the direction of causality stressed by the literature.     

青海省草原承包工作现状及探讨

阐述了青海省草原承包工作经历的三个阶段和取得的成效,对畜牧业发展中过去草场承包运行暴露出的新问题进行了分析,并对相应的对策、措施及建议进行了探讨。     

土地承包经营权数据库建设

本文根据国土资源部关于开展不动产登记数据汇交整合试点工作的要求,结合土地权籍宗地数据库建设的经验,具体介绍了土地承包经营权数据库建设的步骤,并根据实际情况论述了建设工作中存在的问题和解决方法。     

House prices and consumer welfare

We develop a new approach to measuring changes in consumer welfare due to changes in the price of owner-occupied housing. In our approach, an agent's welfare adjustment is defined as the transfer required to keep expected discounted utility constant given a change in current house prices. We demonstrate that, up to a first-order approximation, there is no aggregate change in welfare due to price increases in the existing housing stock. This follows from a simple market clearing condition where capital gains experienced by sellers are exactly offset by welfare losses to buyers. We show that this result holds (approximately) even in a model that accounts for changes in consumption and investment plans prompted by current house price changes. There can, however, be changes in welfare due to additions to the stock of housing, or to changes in the price of renovating and upgrading the existing stock of housing. For the United States, we estimate the welfare cost of house price appreciation to be an average of $127 per household per year over the 1984–1998 period.     

农村土地承包经营权的现状及对策研究

农村土地承包经营权是农民依法享有的一项重要民事权利。但是由于当事人主体地位不平等、主管部门行政管理职能缺位等原因,导致部分农民土地承包经营权受到侵害。为此,我们应通过完善土地承包经营权登记制度、强化承包经营权物权效力等方面措施,来实现对农村土地承包经营权的法律保护。     

基于建筑工程承包的绿色供应链管理研究

在绿色供应链理论的基础上对建筑业的绿色供应链模式进行了研究,分析了承包模式下的建筑绿色供应链,并对其必要性、组成环节以及运行环境进行了讨论.     

基于建筑工程承包的绿色供应链管理研究

在绿色供应链理论的基础上对建筑业的绿色供应链模式进行了研究,分析了承包模式下的建筑绿色供应链,并对其必要性、组成环节以及运行环境进行了讨论。     

Contractual solutions to hold-up problems with quality uncertainty and unobservable investments

Consider a seller and a buyer who write a contract. After that, the seller produces a good. She can influence the expected quality of the good by making unobservable investments. Only the seller learns the realized quality. Finally, trade can occur. It is always ex post efficient to trade. Yet, it may be impossible to achieve the first best, even though the risk-neutral parties are symmetrically informed at the contracting stage and complete contracts can be written. The second best is characterized by distortions that are reminiscent of adverse selection models (i.e., models with precontractual private information but without hidden actions).     

基于交易性质的物流契约结构分析

从交易性质分析入手,认为交易频率、不确定性和资产专用性是决定物流契约结构的基本因素.大规模物流交易降低了平均成本,物流技术创新降低了不确定性,产权市场降低了物流资产专用性水平,这极大提高了市场组织物流交易的比较优势.国内外实证研究表明,专业化和市场化的物流契约结构有效节约了物流成本,提高了物流组织效率.     

Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts

Business and consumer surveys have become an essential tool for gathering information about different economic variables. While the fast availability of the results and the wide range of variables covered have made them very useful for monitoring the current state of the economy, there is no consensus on their usefulness for forecasting macroeconomic developments.The objective of this paper is to analyse the possibility of improving forecasts for selected macroeconomic variables for the euro area using the information provided by these surveys. After analyzing the potential presence of seasonality and the issue of quantification, we tested whether these indicators provide useful information for improving forecasts of the macroeconomic variables. With this aim, different sets of models have been considered (AR, ARIMA, SETAR, Markov switching regime models and VAR) to obtain forecasts for the selected macroeconomic variables. Then, information from surveys has been considered for forecasting these variables in the context of the following models: autoregressive, VAR, Markov switching regime and leading indicator models. In all cases, the root mean square error (RMSE) has been computed for different forecast horizons.The comparison of the forecasting performance of the two sets of models permits us to conclude that, in most cases, models that include information from the surveys have lower RMSEs than the best model without survey information. However, this reduction is only significant in a limited number of cases. In this sense, the results obtained extend the results of previous research that has included information from business and consumer surveys to explain the behaviour of macroeconomic variables, but are not conclusive about its role.     

契约储蓄对金融市场的潜在影响

契约储蓄机构包括养老基金和寿险公司。养老基金和寿险公司的特殊之处在于他们的债务期限为长期结构。这类储蓄机构的投资可以使金融市场上长期资金的供给增加,也由于其投资的长期性,使证券市场的效率、透明度和竞争程度整体上会得到提高,交易成本趋于下降。此外,使银行的行为更加理性化、长期化,从而使得金融市场上的资金需求方企业可以以更低的成本获得更多的长期资金,促进整个金融体系的健康稳定发展。     

农村土地承包经营权调绘系统的设计与实现

农业部规范规定,农村土地承包经营权需要实地调绘地块及其对应的承包方信息等。传统的以纸质草图和表格为主的作业方式由于需要重复的录入地块属性导致作业效率较低。针对这一问题,文章基于Arc GIS Engine和Access数据库,设计实现了一套内外业结合的农村土地承包经营权调绘系统,其中外业系统部署在Windows平板,内业系统部署在笔记本电脑。经过实际测试,该系统成功调绘了贵州省某县某个村级试点的数据,实现了无纸化作业。     

企业声誉与消费者忠诚度关系浅析

企业声誉可以直接影响消费者对其企业产品的购买决策和产品忠诚度。因此其受到越来越多企业的重视,文章对企业声誉的构成及应遵守的原则进行了分析。     

Accidents airline safety perceptions and consumer demand

This paper assesses the impact of perceptions about the safety level of airlines on enplanement. Consumer perceptions are specified with a Poisson distribution that updates over time. Using two different empirical specifications via a pooled generalized least squares procedure with fixed effects; we find no statistical evidence of a correlation between the perceived level of safety and enplanement. However, under an alternative specification in which the severity levels of accidents are ranked, we find that safety perceptions about accidents with minor injuries have no statistically significant impact on enplanement, while perceptions about accidents with serious injuries and fatalities lead to cumulative decreases in enplanement.     

外商在华出资的动态博弈

根据2002年统计,合作企业和合资企业当年未按合同出资的分别占56．0％和41．4％,违约行为相当严重。本文对外商在中国的出资行为进行博弈分析,探讨违约原因,反映中方和外方在投资中的相互博弈,以加强对实际投资的科学管理。     

物流企业员工心理契约模型实证分析

通过对相关研究的分析,指出物流企业与员工之间存有心理契约.提出物流企业与员工的心理契约内分为“交易、发展、尊重”三个维度,容通过对北京、上海、天津、广州、重庆、山东等物流企业及员工的问卷调研,证实了提出的各个假设的正确性,同时得出给物流员工提供满足其尊重需求的工作环境、肯定其成绩、充分发挥其才能比物质奖励更加重要.研究结果显示,物流企业责任的三个维度对员工尊重维度发挥正向作用.     

企业集团财权配置的契约结构分析

财权配置的契约安排是对企业集团初始（财务）契约的不完备性所进行的修正。财权配置的契约结构不仅决定企业集团与市场的边界,也决定企业集团内部代理成本的结构。而代理成本和财务协同效应均衡,可以实现企业集团财权配置契约结构的优化,即财权契约安排的制度净收益最大化。