Estimation and testing of Euler equation models with time-varying reduced-form coefficients

This paper studies the estimation and testing of Euler equation models in the framework of the classical two-step minimum-distance method. The time-varying reduced-form model in the first step reflects the adaptation of private agents’ beliefs to the changing economic environment. The presumed ability of Euler conditions to deliver stable parameters indexing tastes and technology is interpreted as a time-invariant second-step model. This paper shows that, complementary to and independent of one another, both standard specification test and stability test are required for the evaluation of an Euler equation. As an empirical application, a widely used investment Euler equation is submitted to examination. The empirical outcomes appear to suggest that the standard investment model has not been a success for aggregate investment.     

Capital Market Imperfections, Uncertainty and Corporate Investment in the Czech Republic

In this study we examine private investment behavior of firms in the Czech Republic. A special feature of the study is that the investment equations include variables which may give some more insights into the role of capital market imperfections as well as the effect of uncertainty. Our results find support for the accelerator model. We find evidence for cash-flow effects on Czech corporate investment. It is striking that indeed smaller longer privatized firms face relatively less cash flow restrictions. Financial structure doesn't matter as much as we expected. We find that smaller firms react positively to more uncertainty.     

Multinational Corporations and Spillovers

This paper examines spillover effects of the activities of multinational firms. Such effects are most likely to be found in host countries, where the operations of foreign multinationals may influence local firms in the MNCs own industry as well as firms in other industries. However, there is no comprehensive evidence on the exact nature or magnitude of these effects, although it is suggested that host country spillovers vary systematically between countries and industries. In particular, the positive effects of foreign investment are likely to increase with the level of local capability and competition. The spillovers to the home countries of MNCs are often more difficult to identify, for various reasons. Earlier studies suggest that the effects are generally positive, but the increasing international division of labor within multinationals complicates the analysis. The impact on the home country is likely to depend on what activities these firms concentrate at home.     

On-the-job training and rigidity of employment protection in the developing world: Evidence from differential enforcement

This paper analyzes the causal effect between strict employment protection regulations and the firm incentive to invest in job training of their employees. We explore a large firm level data set across several developing countries and assume that the rigidity of labor regulations affects more the investment decision of firms that faces a rigid enforcement of labor regulations. Our findings show that differences across countries in the enforcement of more rigid employment protection regulation are associated with very small differences in the investment in job training across firms. This finding is robust across several specifications and samples.     

The impact of uncertainty on firm investment: evidence from machinery industry in Liaoning province of China

We test the impact of uncertainty on investment of Chinese firms during market transition with a sample of 195 firms in the machinery industry in Liaoning province of China during 1993–1998. The system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimates show that both demand and labor costs uncertainties do not affect investment of state enterprises, while labor costs uncertainty has a positive effect on investment of collective firms. This result suggests that managers of state enterprises have little incentive to respond to uncertainty probably due to the ex ante arrangements of the contract responsibility system, while collective firms show risk-taking behavior during market transition. We also find that sales growth is an insignificant signal for investment of both state and collective enterprises, violating the standard accelerator principle. We provide a few possible explanations to this result.     

Investment behaviour and “bull & bear” dynamics: modelling real and stock market interactions

In this article, we develop a simple behavioural macrodynamic model in continuous-time with the purpose of investigating the interaction of the real economy and the financial markets. Building on Westerhoff (Discret Dyn Nat Soc, 2012), we improve the specification of aggregate demand by distinguishing between consumption and investment expenditure and assuming that the latter is determined by the flexible accelerator principle. We remove the ad hoc nonlinearity in the fundamentalist behavioural rule and allow the composition of the population between chartists and fundamentalists to be endogenously determined. The resulting nonlinear dynamic systems are shown to generate various dynamic regimes, among which the coexistence of periodic attractors with interesting economic implications. Endogenous investment and stock market dynamics emerge, procyclical to each other, reflecting the interaction of induced investment with alternating waves in speculators’ sentiments. We show that a strong investment accelerator might be a crucial force generating fluctuations that, on the one hand, are transmitted and amplified by chartists and, on the other hand, are contained by fundamentalists.

     

Natural resources and capital structure

This paper examines the effect of natural resources on the capital structure of firms. Using an extensive dataset of listed firms in 70 countries, we show that firms operating in resource extraction industries have less debt than other non-financial firms. Moreover, non-resource firms in resource-dependent countries are found to be less indebted than their counterparts in other countries. The results suggest that the very fact of a firm’s location in a resource-dependent country is an overlooked country-specific determinant of the firm’s capital structure and that financial institutions in resource-dependent countries may play a role in exacerbating a nation’s resource curse.     

The peer-firm effect on firm’s investment decisions

This study investigates the effect of peer firms on firm investment strategies. We test the peer group effect hypothesis along differing levels of financially constrained firms as well as differing degrees of industry competition. Using idiosyncratic equity returns as the instrument variable, we use 2-stage least squares regression to identify the influence of peer firms’ investment decisions on a firm’s own investment policies. Our analyses empirically confirm that there is a peer group effect in making firm investment decisions. More financially constrained firms show greater dependency on peers’ investment decisions. Tests of peer sensitivity to the increase in industrial competition, however, displayed a U-shaped quadratic curve, which shows that firms have the lowest peer group effect in medium-competition markets. We claim that imitative behavior in investment is presumably weak in the mid-competition market because firms are yet to be distinguished in this market.     

Financial Constraints on German Firms after the Crisis: Evidence from Threshold Panel Estimation

This article studies the existence and magnitude of financial investment constraints in Germany between 2006 and 2012 with a special emphasis on small and medium‐sized firms. The core contention is that the sensitivity of the investment rate to the cash flow rate is a function of a firm's financial position contributing to its access to external finance. The application of a nonlinear panel threshold model reveals that the marginal effect of the cash flow rate on the investment rate is almost twice as strong for ‘high debt’ firms compared to ‘low debt’ firms. This result holds for six out of seven balance sheet threshold variables. For a single specification, the results reveal a non‐monotonic relationship between the cash flow rate and investment rate. Firm size, however, does not explain differences in the cash‐flow‐investment nexus.     

IPO performance and the size effect: Evidence for the US and Canada

This study provides new evidence on the interaction between firm size and IPO underpricing in the US and Canadian markets. We find a size effect on IPO underpricing in both Canada and the US, which is larger for Canadian firms. Canadian small firms show more underpricing than US small firms (19.32% vs. 13.87%). Large Canadian firms also exhibit more underpricing than their US counterparts over the sample period (12.83% vs. 10.09%). A size effect on performance is not apparent for holding periods beyond six months from the IPO in both countries, consistent with seasoning effects that reduce information asymmetries across firms over longer investment horizons.     

Creditor protection,shareholder protection and investment efficiency: New evidence

Prior studies show significant effects of creditor rights and shareholder rights on corporate investment efficiency; however, they have not addressed how shareholder (creditor) rights influence the relationship between creditor (shareholder) rights and firm investment efficiency. With a research sample of 235,969 firm-years from 31,152 firms across 42 countries during the period 2002–2016, we find that the negative (positive) effect of creditor (shareholder) rights on corporate investment efficiency is stronger (weaker) in countries of strong shareholder (creditor) protection. In addition, our research findings show that both creditor rights and shareholder rights are less effective in investment efficiency during the global financial crisis. Firms in countries of strong shareholder (creditor) protection experience smaller (larger) decreases in the effectiveness of creditor (shareholder) rights.     

The implications of financial frictions and imperfect knowledge in the estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy

In this paper, I study how alternative assumptions about expectation formation can modify the implications of financial frictions for the real economy. I incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism into a version of the Smets and Wouters (2007) DSGE framework and explore the properties of the model assuming, on the one hand, complete rationality of expectations and, alternatively, several learning algorithms that differ in terms of the information set used by agents to produce the forecasts. I show that the implications of the financial accelerator for the business cycle may vary depending on the approach to modeling the expectations. The results suggest that the learning scheme based on small forecasting functions is able to amplify the effects of financial frictions relative to the model with Rational Expectations. Specifically, I show that the dynamics of real variables under learning is driven to a significant extent by the time variation of agents’ beliefs about financial sector variables. During periods when agents perceive asset prices as being relatively more persistent, financial shocks lead to more pronounced macroeconomic outcomes. The amplification effect rises as financial frictions become more severe. At the same time, a learning specification in which agents use more information to generate predictions produces very different asset price and investment dynamics. In such a framework, learning cannot significantly alter the real effects of financial frictions implied by the Rational Expectations model.     

NO DEEP POCKETS: SOME STYLIZED EMPIRICAL RESULTS ON FIRMS’ FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS

Abstract This paper is a survey of recent empirical work on financial constraints faced by firms. It is organized as a series of stylized results which mirror what is generally understood about the severity of financial constraints and the effects that they have upon firms. The review of the literature shows that (a) financial constraints are a widespread key concern for firms, hindering their ability to carry out their optimal investment and growth trajectories and (b) the severity of such constraints depends on institutional and firm specific characteristics, as well as on the nature of investment projects.     

Corporate financial determinants of foreign direct investment

Financial market incompleteness and (partial) segmentation of financial markets internationally may endow some firms with a financial advantage which can be exploited through foreign direct investment. We argue that this advantage appears as a distinct cost-of-capital effect on FDI, and identify possible channels for such an effect. Using a sample of European firms’ cross-border acquisitions, and controlling for traditional firm-level determinants of FDI, we find strong support for a cost-of-equity effect, whereas the effect of debt costs is indeterminate. Moreover, financial FDI determinants are more important for firms with high knowledge intensity and for firms resident in relatively less financially developed countries.     

Strategic real options under asymmetric information

This paper studies the effect of private information on the capital allocation decisions of firms who operate under imperfect competition. I analyze two interactive firms, one with private information and the other without, who must decide when to undertake an irreversible and uncertain investment decision. Traditional non-strategic models of irreversible investment under uncertainty involve a single decision maker and result in an optimal period of delay before the investment is undertaken. In a strategic setting, firms must balance their desire to delay against competitive advantages from early investment. I find that an equilibrium may not exist within the standard continuous framework when the private information is over revenues. Moreover, when an equilibrium does exist the competitive pressures from the uninformed firm are weak. This is in contrast to existing models with asymmetric information over costs, where an equilibrium always exists and the competitive pressures remain strong (Hsu and Lambrecht, 2007). This work shows that the investment timing decision, and thus the value of the private information, is highly sensitive to the nature of incomplete information.     

外商直接投资在中国的空间外溢效应研究

本文的研究结果发现,除了国外直接投资对大型企业不存在空间外溢比邻优势外,国外直接投资对中、小型企业以及港澳台地区直接投资对所有规模的企业均存在一定的空间外溢比邻优势;外商直接投资拉大了东西部企业生产率的差距,其中港澳台地区直接投资对东西部大型企业的生产率外溢差异远大于国外直接投资,港澳台地区直接投资分布相对集中于东部以及其对大型企业表现出的比邻优势使其外溢效应出现明显的区域差异,这是导致东西部生产率差异的主要因素;外商直接投资对不同规模的企业具有不同的外溢效应,加剧了我国大、小企业之间的竞争地位差异。     

Firm leverage and investment decisions in an emerging market

In this study, the effect of leverage on investment is analyzed by employing panel data methods for the Turkish non-financial firms that are quoted on İstanbul Stock Exchange. For one-way error component models, it is shown that there is a negative impact of leverage on investment for only firms with low Tobin’s Q. These results are in conformity with the previous literature and agency theories of corporate finance stating that leverage has a disciplining role for firms with low growth opportunities. However, when the model is extended to include the time effects in a two-way error component model, the relation between leverage and investment disappears.     

Institutional investors,corporate governance and the performance of the corporate sector

Proportions of equity held by institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds—are rising across all OECD countries. Meanwhile institutions are becoming more influential in corporate governance, even in bank-dominated countries, inter alia due to international investment, pension reform and EMU. We provide two forms of evidence on the effects of institutional corporate governance on corporate performance. First we offer a literature survey on micro evidence, the outcome of which is mixed, but on balance suggesting a positive effect on equity returns. We contend that these micro studies face a difficulty that they cannot capture effects of governance initiatives whose effects go wider than “target firms”. Accordingly, we present results for the reduced form empirical relationship between institutional share holding and corporate sector performance at an economy-wide level. These are consistent with significant effects which differ between “Anglo-Saxon” and “relationship banking” countries. For example, institutions appear to accompany lower investment and higher dividends in the former.     

FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA: WHAT DO WE KNOW?

Abstract Beginning from the early 1980s countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa embarked on financial liberalization policies with a view to reversing the ill‐effects of financial repression. This paper provides a survey of financial liberalization in Sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980 to 2004. Our review of empirical studies showed that financial liberalization has had diverse and contrasting effects on savings, investment and economic growth. Most studies found a significant positive effect of financial liberalization on investment whereas its effect on savings has been largely insignificant. The evidence on the effect on economic growth is inconclusive as different studies find contrasting results. It is found that financial liberalization policies have not had the desired and expected results as both financial and macroeconomic variables have not improved following financial liberalization in these countries. This calls for a rethinking of financial liberalization in Sub‐Saharan African countries. It is important that financial liberalization is carried out in a stable macroeconomic environment. In addition to this, there should be a building and reform of institutions and the strengthening of prudential regulation. Following this, financial liberalization can be embarked upon but it must be properly sequenced and not rushed.     

A small country's high-tech dilemma: the challenge facing new technology-based firms in Norway

Judging from their profit trends, new technology-based firms have not been very successful in Norway. After ten or more years of activity, fewer than half a dozen has accumulated profits over £1 million. Those that risked large initial investments in order to standardize an innovative new technology enjoyed the greatest amount of success. Most firms were able to develop a prototype, but many had great difficulties gearing up for production. Insufficient financing and know-how were the main problems. Firms have had more problems with production than with marketing, but very few seem prepared for the costs and challenges of an international marketing effort. Most lacked a clear marketing strategy or business plan. Financing was often a problem: there was little private investment, and equity capital was often scarce with a mean debt to equity ratio of less than 30%. Most firms received some sort of public funding, usually in support of product development, but so far it has had little impact on profit trends. A multi-national follow-up study with access to a larger data base would provide many more insights.