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内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型——对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的再解释 总被引:32,自引:0,他引:32
通过吸收内生增长理论的思想 ,修正外生农业技术进步的假设 ,本文提出了一个内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型 ,并以此对倍受瞩目也颇多争议的“东亚奇迹”及中国经济 ,从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析。本文认为 ,“东亚奇迹”是传统农业劳动力不断转向现代非农业部门的结果 ;是现代部门以资本反哺传统部门 ,推动农业技术进步 ,促进劳动力转移的结果 ;也是现代部门均衡发展 ,吸纳剩余劳动力 ,加速结构转换的结果。因此 ,虽然非农部门的全要素生产率提高不够显著 ,但劳动力结构转换仍然推动经济实现了持久的高速增长。 相似文献
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论公共支出与中国特色农业现代化——基于内生增长理论的分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对我国农业现代化的外在制约因素及其内在要求的分析表明,我国对农业的公共支出需要进一步调整和优化:一是扭转当前对农业的相机抉择财政政策,加大国家财政对农业的转移支付力度,提升农业经济增长水平;二是提高国家财政对农业科技的投入,将农业技术研发和推广作为公共产品加以供给;三是加强国家财政对农村社会保障体系的支持,促使农村人口摆脱对土地的过度依赖,加快推进农村土地流转,从而引导农业的适度规模生产。 相似文献
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二元经济理论经历了古典主义、新古典主义和凯恩斯主义三个阶段。上个世纪80年代中期以来,二元经济理论日益融合了古典经济学、新古典经济学、新制度经济学、演化经济学等经济理论,形成了理论综合基础上的二元经济理论,其中最具代表性的成果是费景汉与拉尼斯的转型增长理论。现阶段二元理论由于突破了单一研究范式的局限,更加符合发展中国家经济结构与组织制度异质性的实际。二元理论对土地非农化对二元经济转型的影响、二元经济转型的阶段性及前瞻性等问题研究的不够。这些理论研究的不足,将成为学术界研究的重点。 相似文献
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本文在内生增长的框架内,从减污技术出发分析倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线形成的原因。我们发现在减污投入比不变时,消费的跨期替代弹性小于1是经济增长向稳态过渡时形成倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线的条件,而这一条件是通过减污技术进步率大于稳态经济增长率来实现的;在减污投入规模报酬不变的假设下,减污技术与减污-生产投入比在稳态路径中存在互补关系;减污技术进步越快,人力资本开发效率越高,消费者更注重未来效用的获取,则稳态经济增长率便越高,同时环境质量改善速度也越快。 相似文献
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本文运用内生经济增长理论,探讨政府有关人力资本和基础设施的投资对贫困人口发生率的影响程度.利用1995~2004年之间和田地区各县的面板数据,建立多元线性回归模型,评价不同类型政府投入的效果.分析表明,政府提高人力资本的投资,如在公共医疗、信息化、教育和基础设施建设方面的投入对推动地区经济增长,打破贫困与环境之间的恶性循环,减少贫困人口数量效果显著. 相似文献
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制度和技术是促进农业经济增长的术因素,通过构建新疆农业经济增长模型实证分析发现,制度因素和技术因素对新疆农业经济增长影响相对重要,其他因素也不容忽视;在实证结论基础上,结合新疆农业和农村实际情况,对新疆农业经济增长问题提出政策建议. 相似文献
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经济增长、产业结构与农村劳动力转移——基于中国1978-2004年数据的实证分析 总被引:16,自引:0,他引:16
基于岭回归的模型和实证分析创新性地表明:1978年以来我国总体经济增长对农村劳动力转移有较大的促进作用.农业经济增长和农村改革为我国的农村劳动力转移创造了条件,而城市服务业则是我国农村劳动力转移的主要去向,正规工业部门和建筑业的发展虽然对我国农村劳动力转移有促进作用,但相对较弱.进一步发展农业经济,使得更多的劳动力从农村解放出来;大力发展第三产业,使得第三产业能够吸收更多的劳动力,是解决我国农村剩余劳动力的战略选择. 相似文献
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比较优势、劳动力流动与产业转移 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
劳动力流动的新趋势反映了劳动力要素成本的比较优势在我国区域之间的动态转化,东部地区逐步丧失劳动力成本的比较优势,中西部地区劳动力要素禀赋的显性优势开始呈现。产业转移直接产生于比较优势的动态变化,顺应劳动力流动的新趋势,做好产业在区域间的转移和承接,才能转变依靠廉价劳动力的外向型经济增长方式,促使东部沿海地区进行产业升级,同时带动中西部地区工业化和城镇化进程,在保持我国低劳动力成本优势的基础上实现区域间协调发展。 相似文献
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A structural model of the transition to agriculture 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Matthew J. Baker 《Journal of Economic Growth》2008,13(4):257-292
I develop a model of the transition to agriculture that can be estimated using cross-cultural data on the incidence of agriculture.
The model allows for endogenous growth effects in which population density and technological sophistication are symbiotically
related, and also allows for technological spillovers from centers of civilization. The model describes conditions under which
population density and technological sophistication are likely to cause a switch to agriculture. Results suggest that endogenous
growth affects are absent among hunter gatherers, but that technological spillovers are important in generating a switch to
agriculture, and in generating technological change. Technology appears to diffuse more slowly along the north-south axis
than along the east-west axis. Among agricultural peoples, endogenous growth effects appear to be present and important—a
society that is 10% more technologically sophisticated has a population density about 5% larger, and a society with a 10%
higher population density is on average 5% more technologically sophisticated. Hunter-gatherer population density appears
to be independent of technology, but elastic with respect to environmental factors such as rainfall and habitat diversity.
相似文献
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Akira Kamiguchi 《Applied economics letters》2019,26(15):1289-1293
This study explores the mechanism that causes an inverted U-shaped relationship between the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate which is observed in empirical studies. We show that this relationship is caused even when the government does not introduce the golden rule of public finance, and government health care expenditure has important role in generating this relationship. 相似文献
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Summary. A simple overlapping generations model with investment gestation lags is constructed. The model shows that, if the technology is of the AK type with capital-deepening externalities, the existence of investment gestation lags always generates permanent cyclical fluctuations in the economic growth rate. The mean growth rate is shown to be positive if the external effect is strong. The model also shows that, if the production technology takes the Cobb-Douglas form, there exists a unique steady state in which the economy exhibits neither cyclical fluctuations nor long-run growth.Received: 3 July 2003, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers:
E32, B13.
Correspondence to: Akiomi KitagawaAkiomi Kitagawa, Akihisa Shibata: The authors would like to thank Yasushi Iwamoto, Kazuo Mino, an anonymous referee and seminar participants at the Macroeconomics Workshop for their helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
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Within an optimizing endogenous growth model with productive public capital and government debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path a set of welfare-maximizing fiscal rules under different budgetary regimes. It is shown that optimal fiscal policy depends on the specific budgetary stance considered. 相似文献
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国际直接投资与开放型内生经济增长 总被引:50,自引:1,他引:50
本文应用内生经济增长理论框架 ,着重就国际直接投资 (FDI)对高收入国家、中收入国家和低收入国家三种不同类型国家经济增长的影响进行理论和实证分析 ,认为FDI能内生技术溢出和技术进步 ,从而成为内生经济增长的重要源泉。本文对 65个样本国家的实证研究结果表明 ,FDI流入增长对高收入的发达国家经济增长作用比对中低收入发展中国家作用更明显。但FDI流入增长对我国经济增长和全要素生产率增长具有明显促进作用 ,其原因与FDI流入规模和我国的人力资本水平有关 相似文献
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农业现代服务业:以工促农的产业路径 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
农业现代服务业是现代服务业与农业实现产业耦合的产物,它既拓展现代服务业所涉及的产业领域,也能够有效地通过产业路径实现传统农业向现代农业的蜕变。农业现代服务业已在实践领域初露锋芒,并越来越表现为以工促农的产业路径,但理论界一直未对其进行系统地理论研究。发展农业现代服务业不仅需要从产业和谐角度进行产业理论创新,而且应大力鼓励现代服务业战略性"下乡"。 相似文献
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We study how different regimes of access rights to renewable natural resources – namely open access versus full property rights – affect sustainability, growth and welfare in the context of modern endogenous growth theory. Resource exhaustion may occur under both regimes but is more likely to arise under open access. Moreover, under full property rights, positive resource rents increase expenditures on manufacturing goods and temporarily accelerate productivity growth, but also yield a higher resource price at least in the short-to-medium run. We characterize analytically and quantitatively the model׳s dynamics to assess the welfare implications of differences in property rights enforcement. 相似文献
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We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts. 相似文献
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A Schumpeterian model of endogenous innovation and growth 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
F. C. Englmann 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1994,4(3):227-241
A disequilibrium model of endogenous innovation and growth is presented. The behaviour of the agents is supposed to be governed by routines, not by maximization. The entrepreneurs are assumed to invest a fraction of their operating profits in real capital accumulation, and another fraction in R&D. The latter leads to an increase in labour productivity via a R&D production function. In this Schumpeterian model, not only the R&D processes of innovations are considered, but the diffusion processes as well. As in Schumpeter's theory of economic development the economic impact of technical change is considered a disequilibrium phenomenon. Thus, in a capitalist economy characterized by ongoing diffusion processes of innovations, time averages are more important than steady state values even in a long run perspective. 相似文献