A socio-economic assessment of proposed road user charging schemes in Copenhagen

Road pricing, congestion charging, toll-systems and other road charging instruments are intensively discussed in many countries. Although many partial analyses of the consequences have been published, few overall socio-economic analyses have been carried out. The article presents such a socio-economic analysis of four different proposed road pricing schemes for the Copenhagen area. The purpose was to assess all benefits and costs involved, including impacts on traffic and environment, maintenance and financing costs as well as tax distortion effects. It was concluded that the socio-economic surplus of the projects depends crucially on the congestion level. With the current traffic level, road pricing will not yet be socially expedient in Copenhagen. However, if the opening year is postponed to 2015, the two most favourable schemes will turn positive. The analyses also showed that the magnitude of demand response by introducing road pricing is likely to have significant impact on the project surplus. This is an important observation because most short-term driven traffic models will then underestimate the projected surplus. Finally, it was found that the degree to which benefits outweigh costs depends considerably on the use of revenue. Although it may contribute to decreasing road congestion, recycling all of the revenue back to the transport sector turned out to be inefficient and costly.     

Flying into the future: A scenario-based analysis of carbon emissions from China's civil aviation

Aviation emissions will significantly affect climate change with the continued growth of the air transport. This study decomposes the drivers influencing China's civil aviation carbon emissions change in the period from 1985 to 2015. Emission trends are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show a peak and reduction in the period between 2016 and 2030. Results also show that air transportation revenue growth is associated with increasing historical carbon emissions, while rising industry energy intensity significantly hampers carbon emissions reduction. The carbon intensity (CI) reduction goals were achieved in the different scenarios before 2020, but the carbon emissions peak target before 2030 can only be achieved under the technological breakthrough scenario (TBS). The reduction of air transport growth rate and promotion of new energy technologies are two essential strategies to reduce carbon emissions in the foreseeing future.     

Reducing road congestion: a reality check

For some little while now, transport policy seems to be focused on massive relative increases in public transport ridership and reduction of car use, resulting in a hoped-for reduction in road congestion. Starting with concerns with vehicle emissions as far back as the mid-1980s, and moving now into more of a focus on greenhouse gases and congestion, current transport policies are aimed at reducing two perceived externalities of increasing car use—vehicular emissions and congestion. This paper seeks to check the reality of these policy directions and question whether these are desirable, let alone achievable end states. The paper starts by looking at congestion and questions whether or not it is intrinsically bad. The negative and positive aspects of congestion are explored. The concepts of accessibility and mobility are discussed, particularly in relation to congestion and capacity increases, with the idea of trying to understand better what capacity increases or increasing congestion do to these two measures. The expectation must be that congestion levels are likely to continue to increase into the future, both as a result of increasing population and also increasing real wealth and changes in preferences. This section of the paper concludes that it is within the power of the market place to offset some of the negatives of congestion.In the next section of the paper, the potentials to increase public transport ridership are examined. An illustration is provided of the likely impacts of achieving a doubling in public transport ridership in a hypothetical city. It is found that the effects of such an achievement would be relatively small on the overall congestion of the road system, and that these effects would also be likely to be fairly short-lived. At the same time, the investments that would be necessary in the public transport system are enormous, and there is relatively little likelihood that one could achieve such an increase in ridership within current development patterns. The paper also addresses the potential of congestion pricing or road user charges to impact congestion. It is concluded that charging motorists a politically acceptable amount will probably still not make significant impact on overall system congestion, while the potential for serious impacts on the economy become large if the charges are made sufficiently high or the area covered is made sufficiently large. In the final section of the paper, a number of policy directions are put forward as suggestions for how to deal with the issue of congestion, capacity, and the declining share of market of public transport. These policy directions are not generally the ones that are being pursued today. The issue of congestion pricing is revisited, and a case is made for a kilometrage charge on road users to replace most current licensing schemes.     

Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and achievement of the targets set at the Kyoto Protocol and elsewhere means that the EU and national governments must reduce CO₂ emissions in all sectors, including transport. This paper reports on a recently completed study for the UK government on the options available to meet a 60% CO₂ reduction target by 2030 in the UK transport sector. The study follows a backcasting study approach, developing a business as usual baseline for transport emissions, and two alternative scenarios to 2030. Different policy measures are assessed and assembled into mutually supporting policy packages (PP). Although 2030 seems a long way ahead, action must be taken now if the targets for CO₂ reduction are to be met. The achievement of a carbon-efficient transport future, combined with holding travel levels at present levels, is likely to be very difficult. A major transformation in the way transport and urban planning is carried out is required. As transport and urban planners, we need to think very differently in tackling the new environmental and liveability imperative.     

Estimating annual average daily traffic and transport emissions for a national road network: A bottom-up methodology for both nationally-aggregated and spatially-disaggregated results

The regular and robust collection of traffic data for the entire road network in a given country will usually require high-cost investment in traffic surveys and automated traffic counters. This paper provides an alternative and low-cost approach for estimating annual average daily traffic values (AADTs) and the associated transport emissions for all road segments in a country. This is achieved by parsing and processing commonly available information from existing geographical data, census data, traffic data and vehicle fleet data. Ceteris paribus, we find that our annual average daily traffic estimation based on a neural network performs better than traditional regression models, and that the outcomes of our aggregated bottom-up road segment emission estimations are close to the outcomes from top-down models based on total energy consumption in transport. The developed approach can serve as a means of reliably estimating and verifying national road transport emissions, as well as offering a robust means of spatially analysing road transport activity and emissions, so as to support spatial emission inventory compilations, compliance with international environmental agreements, transport simulation modelling and transport planning.     

Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union

This study analyses the structure of air traffic and its distribution among the different countries in the European Union, as well as traffic with an origin or destination in non-EU countries. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions data. The segmentation of air traffic in terms of distance permits an assessment of air transport competition with surface transport modes.The results show a clear concentration of traffic in the five larger countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), in terms of RPKs. In terms of distance the segment between 500 and 1000 km in the EU, has more flights, passengers, RTKs and CO₂ emissions than larger distances. On the environmental side, the distribution of CO₂ emissions within the EU Member States is presented, together with fuel efficiency parameters. In general, a direct relationship between RPKs and CO₂ emissions is observed for all countries and all distance bands. Consideration is given to the uptake of alternative fuels. Segmenting CO₂ emissions per distance band and aircraft type reveals which flights contribute the most the overall EU CO₂ emissions. Finally, projections for future CO₂ emissions are estimated, according to three different air traffic growth and biofuel introduction scenarios.     

Modeling different penetration rates of eco-driving in urban areas: Impacts on traffic flow and emissions

Climate change and air quality are two main environmental challenges in metropolitan areas. As road transportation is one of the main contributors, public administrations are facing these problems with a number of complementary policy measures: shift to cleaner modes, new fuels and vehicle technologies, demand management, and the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) applied to transportation. Eco-driving is one of the measures that present large fuel savings at individual level. Although these savings are well documented in the literature, few studies focus on how eco-drivers driving patterns affect the surrounding vehicles and the traffic in general, and more particularly what would be the impact when the number of eco-drivers grows. Using a traffic microsimulation tool, four models in urban context have been built, corresponding to the different types of urban roads. Both the base-case and the parameters setting to simulate eco-driving have been calibrated with real data collected through floating vehicles performing the trips with normal and eco behaviors. In total, 72 scenarios were simulated, varying the type of road, traffic demand, and the percentage of eco-drivers. Then, the CO₂ and NO_x emissions have been estimated through a microscopic emission model. The results show that in scenarios with low or medium demand levels and increasing number of eco-drivers, the effects are positive in terms of emissions. On the other side, with high percentage of eco-drivers and high traffic demand, the emissions rise. Higher headways and smooth acceleration and decelerations increase congestion, producing higher emissions globally.     

Delineating traffic congestion zones in cities: An effective approach based on GIS

Identifying congested areas for implementing road pricing is a complicated task, especially as traffic speed and other census data may not be readily available before a detailed feasibility study is commissioned. In this study, we introduce a spatial approach to identify areas with road traffic congestion within cities. The results obtained are validated against the empirical traffic speed data in four Asian cities, i.e. Bangkok, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, from 2018 to 2020. Moreover, the findings are also compared with a more detailed conventional method of using job density to identify areas of high traffic congestion. The comparisons show that the spatial approach is both efficient and effective. Through applying the method to London, Milan and Stockholm, the study also demonstrates other potential empirical applications in reviewing the boundaries of existing congestion charging zones.     

Government plans for lorry road-user charging in the UK: a critique and an alternative

The British government was planning to introduce a system of road-user charging for lorries in 2008. In July 2005, it decided to abandon these plans and incorporate the development of a charging scheme for trucks into a future road pricing system for all categories of traffic. This paper examines the objectives of the proposed lorry road-user charging scheme in the UK and argues that the government's plans for LRUC would have been inappropriate. An alternative method of road-user charging for lorries is proposed which would meet the main objectives of LRUC at much lower cost, disruption and risk and act as an interim measure until it is possible, technically and politically, to introduce general road pricing in the UK.     

Why we fail to reduce urban road traffic volumes: Does it matter how planners frame the problem?

If the objective of reducing urban road traffic volumes and GHG emissions from traffic is to be achieved, the way in which land use and transport systems in cities are planned and developed needs to change. Despite apparent agreement that this should be done and how it could be done, cities continue to be planned and developed in ways that cause and allow growth in urban road traffic volumes. In this paper we ask how planners frame the ‘transport problem’, and how their framing of the problem affects urban planning, the resulting plans and developments and the urban road traffic volumes. The discussions are based on findings from a case study, a survey and interviews with planning practitioners.     

Hinterland operations of sea ports do matter: Dry port usage effects on transportation costs and CO2 emissions

Decreasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions is one of the most important tasks for the society in the 21st century. One possibility to decrease emissions originating from transportation is to utilize more rails instead of relying simply on road transportation. In the dry port concept an inland intermodal terminal is connected to a sea port using railways. This study analyzes impacts of dry ports in a Finnish context. We compare two different configurations: In the first one shippers drive directly to a sea port, while in the second one they use dry ports. The systems are evaluated by using discrete-event simulation. In the systems we are interested in two issues: (1) Level of CO₂ emissions, and (2) Costs to transport the goods in different configurations. We use different scenarios for future energy prices and estimate both the costs and CO₂ emission development in these scenarios. We also compare the results to a situation, where emissions are minimized instead of costs. Implications on larger scale are also discussed, for example in the Baltic Sea and North Sea area, where strict sulfur emission restrictions are seen to harm sea transport and increase concentration on small number of sea ports.     

The impact of transport on social exclusion processes with specific emphasis on road user charging

This paper looks at the ways in which transport can impact on social exclusion processes by examining how the introduction of road user charging may affect residents of Bristol. It gives an overview of the concept of transport and social inclusion/exclusion, describes key themes emerging from DfT-funded research conducted in the city and reflects on the importance of consideration of these themes to the policy's successful implementation. By exploring road user charging from both collective and individual perspectives, the paper illustrates how this congestion charging policy could promote social inclusion.     

Why standard modelling and evaluation procedures are inadequate for assessing traffic congestion measures

As traffic congestion in Hong Kong worsens with the growing use of motor vehicles, to determine what has to be done to achieve and maintain an acceptable level of mobility for persons and goods becomes the subject of intense debate by economists, planners and politicians. Although many traffic congestion measures have been suggested and investigated, they are mainly confined to expansion of transport infrastructure and measures to make effective use of roads. New roads and public transport improvements may encourage increases in traffic and changes in the patterns of trips, while traffic management and regulation measures may in turn lead to suppression in road traffic. In order to evaluate these measures, it is required to make use of a transport model in assessing their traffic impacts. However, there are always discrepancies between the traffic forecasts and the actual flows on the roads. This paper investigates why the standard modelling and evaluation procedures currently used by the Hong Kong Government are inadequate for assessing the traffic congestion measures. Empirical evidence is given together with discussion on modelling and evaluation issues raised by the existence of suppressed/induced traffic.     

Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001

Traditionally, the transport literature reflects the view that traffic volumes, road traffic volumes in particular, are coupled with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Recently published literature also argues that the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from transport, passenger cars in particular, have not shown any decoupling from transport volumes for some years. This article presents a theoretical framework for decoupling, defining the difference between decoupling, coupling and negative decoupling. These are further broken down to weak, strong and expansive/recessive degrees of decoupling, laying emphasis on the absolute increase or decrease of the variables. The result section presents data of the development of the relationships between GDP, traffic volumes and CO₂ emissions from transport in the EU15 countries between 1970 and 2001, including the special case of Finnish road traffic. The aggregate EU15 data show a change from expansive negative decoupling to expansive coupling regarding passenger transport, and from weak decoupling to expansive negative decoupling regarding freight transport. Weak decoupling of transport CO₂ emissions from GDP could also be observed. Weak decoupling of all the three aspects (freight, passenger and CO₂) could be seen in the UK, Sweden and Finland in the 1990s. In Finland, the statistics show weak decoupling of GDP from road traffic volume and strong decoupling of road traffic volume and CO₂ emissions from road traffic between 1990 and 2001. Four hypothetical explanations of the Finnish phenomenon are put forward in this article: policy towards sustainable mobility, green urban lifestyle, increasing income differences, and statistical misinterpretation. Each explanation is backed up with some quantitative evidence in observable trends in Finland during the 1990s.     

Willingness to spend and road pricing rates

Using a theoretical model of urban transport system the paper examines the influence of distribution of willingness to spend within the urban population on road pricing rates. It shows that the rates that must be imposed in an urban area in order to maintain pollutant concentration and congestion due to traffic within acceptable levels is heavily dependent on the distribution of the urban population’s willingness to spend. This fact severely limits the reliability of any method for calculating road pricing rates based on theoretical analysis, so that an experimental approach seems necessary. The paper shows that a relation exists between the toll rate per kilometer of trip and the average traffic congestion, which is typical of each urban area and can be determined experimentally by successively imposing three different rates and measuring the corresponding congestion levels. The relation can then be used to determine the pricing scheme when the purpose of road pricing is to maintain both the congestion and the environmental effects due to urban traffic below acceptable thresholds. An example shows how the model can help policymakers in decision-making processes.     

Congestion and multimodal transport: a survey of cargo transport operators in the Netherlands

Longer and more frequent traffic jams in the Netherlands are increasing the costs of transporting cargo. Tightly scheduled production systems rely on punctual materials movements, but are congestion-induced delays sufficient to stimulate freight mode switching from road to combined road–rail and road–water movements? A survey of Dutch transport companies revealed an estimated 10% of vehicle operating time spent in congested conditions. The perceived impact on transport operations, consumers and service characteristics are reported. Based on the survey findings, a vehicle cost simulation attributed 7% of transport costs to congestion, increasing the attractiveness of multimodal transport and other solutions.     

Achieving genuinely dynamic road user charging: issues with a GNSS-based approach

A variety of approaches to road user charging (RUC) for reducing congestion and raising revenue to maintain and improve transport infrastructure is in place in many countries; examples of such RUC include: an Electronic Fee Collection System in Singapore, Cordon Pricing in Oslo City in Norway, Zoned Based Pricing in London and Distance-Based Pricing (also called Pay-As-You-Drive) in Germany and Switzerland. With the development of satellite technologies, the introduction of dynamic pricing becomes possible, affording an opportunity for RUC to fully reflect the ‘Polluter Pays Principle’. This paper provides critical and comparative assessments of existing road user charging (RUC) systems with reference to technological limitations and public and political acceptability. The paper then goes on to demonstrate a system architecture for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) based dynamic road user charging system capable of considering dynamic variables. Finally we consider the feasibility of the proposed system in relation to technology readiness and public acceptability. We then consider some potential wider benefits from the introduction of a comprehensive system that could be highlighted to justify the cost of development and implementation as well as to improve public and political acceptability. The paper ends with conclusions and future research directions.     

Electrification of a city bus network—An optimization model for cost-effective placing of charging infrastructure and battery sizing of fast-charging electric bus systems

The deployment of battery-powered electric bus systems within the public transportation sector plays an important role in increasing energy efficiency and abating emissions. Rising attention is given to bus systems using fast charging technology. This concept requires a comprehensive infrastructure to equip bus routes with charging stations. The combination of charging infrastructure and bus batteries needs a reliable energy supply to maintain a stable bus operation even under demanding conditions. An efficient layout of the charging infrastructure and an appropriate dimensioning of battery capacity are crucial to minimize the total cost of ownership and to enable an energetically feasible bus operation. In this work, the central issue of jointly optimizing the charging infrastructure and battery capacity is described by a capacitated set covering problem. A mixed-integer linear optimization model is developed to determine the minimum number and location of required charging stations for a bus network as well as the adequate battery capacity for each bus line. The bus energy consumption for each route segment is determined based on individual route, bus type, traffic, and other information. Different scenarios are examined in order to assess the influence of charging power, climate, and changing operating conditions. The findings reveal significant differences in terms of required infrastructure. Moreover, the results highlight a trade-off between battery capacity and charging infrastructure under different operational and infrastructure conditions. This paper addresses upcoming challenges for transport authorities during the electrification process of the bus fleets and sharpens the focus on infrastructural issues related to the fast charging concept.     

Lessons from travel planning and road user charging for policy-making: through imperfection to implementation

In 1978 Gunn published a seminal paper which explained why implementation of policy is so difficult. The paper set out 10 conditions, which should be satisfied if perfect implementation is to be achieved. Whilst it is clear that perfect implementation is not possible in the real world, and Gunn has subsequently been criticised for his ‘top-down’ approach to decision-making, these conditions do, nonetheless act as an effective framework through which to evaluate good practice in the implementation of urban transport policy instruments. Two urban transport policy instruments, which form an increasingly important element of the Government's strategy in the UK for reducing the demand for private transport as set out in a New Deal for Transport (DETR, 1998), are travel plans and road user charging. Travel plans are a relatively recent policy instrument in the UK and seek to reduce trips to work by car by providing, through individual employers, a targeted, integrated package of incentives and disincentives to influence commuters' choice of mode of travel to and from the workplace. Road user charging, whereby motorists are charged for the road space they use in urban areas, seeks to reduce the congestion problem via the price mechanism, and has a longer history in the UK. To date the implementation of travel plans in the UK has been more widespread than that of road user charging. It is fair to say, however, that the widespread implementation of both urban transport policy instruments is a complex and sensitive area for decision-makers.The aim of this paper is firstly, to analyse travel plans and road user charging in the UK with respect to the conditions for perfect implementation put forward by Gunn and secondly, to highlight the elements of good practice, pertinent to the implementation of road user charging, in the process of the implementation of travel plans. Overall, the paper uses Gunn's theoretical framework as a basis for recommendations for better decision-making that will aid the wider implementation of both travel plans and road user charging internationally.     

Battery electric vehicles in cities: Measurement of some impacts on traffic and government revenue recovery

We are told that electric vehicles, cars in particular, will be good for the environment. But what exactly might this mean? It is true that end use emissions will be significantly reduced when we move from fossil fuels to green energy sources? Assuming that the demand for such cars, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in particular will grow, we can expect a significant number of such vehicles manufactured in future years. Given the potentially relatively lower cost (fewer moving parts) compared to internal combustion engine vehicles as well as the significantly lower usage costs per kilometre, we would expect a level of uptake that could impact on the performance of the road network (perhaps increased congestion and crash risk) but also a concomitant reduced use of public transport and fuel excise loss. In this paper, we apply the MetroScan modelling system in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area (GSMA) over the period 2021–2056 to identify the likely impact that the growth in BEV ownership and use will have on vehicle kilometres, modal shares, government revenues, levels of CO₂ emissions and other impacts. Moreover, we investigate the introduction of a BEV usage charge proposed in Australia to see what it might do to these key performance indicators and whether it can offset the adverse effects during BEV uptake such as government fuel excise revenue loss and increased congestion.