提升纺织企业节能减排水平的财税政策研究——以浙江省为例

在实地调研基础上总结了影响浙江纺织企业节能减排的资源、环境、经济与社会因素,分析了浙江纺织企业节能减排的困境及其财税政策的不足,提出了促进浙江纺织企业节能减排的财政支出政策与税收政策的建议:在财政支出政策的选择上应注重综合运用政府直接投资、政府采购、财政补贴和转移支付等手段;在税收政策的选择上应综合运用税收优惠政策、差别性的环保税、产品税和消费税政策等。     

Savings and Investment: Some International Perspectives

Consistent with neoclassical growth models, recent estimates of the close association between domestic saving and investment rates may allow policy makers the opportunity to alter investment through the introduction of polices that alter domestic savings. However, such an interpretation presumes an endogenous investment response. Equally likely, at least theoretically, is that the close association is maintained by movements in domestic savings. The present paper explicitly examines the endogeneity of domestic saving and investment rates. For a subset of countries, including the United States, the results suggest that saving adjustments make up only a small portion of investment behavior.     

International capital mobility: regional versus global perspective

This paper examines the role of regional versus global savings in financing domestic investment to shed light on the role of financial globalization and regionalism in capital markets. Regression results based on six regions with 141 countries reveal that although the role of foreign (global or regional) saving has increased over time, there are regional differences: domestic saving is the major source of investment financing in North America with an increasing role of regional and global savings over time, while regional saving is the main source in Europe. Global saving has been the main source of investment financing in other regions where domestic and regional financial markets are not well developed. However, the role of regional saving has significantly increased in recent years in the Asia-Pacific and in Latin America. Regionalism such as financial and monetary cooperation is likely to have increased the role of regional saving.     

The Asian crisis,private sector saving,and policy implications

The Asian financial crisis has several critical implications for the saving behavior in the crisis-hit economies as well as in other Asian economies, which are summarized as follows: increase in economic uncertainty; increase in poverty; decrease in public confidence in financial institutions; financial liberalization; and reduction in corporate leverage ratio. Putting these together, the postcrisis saving rates in the crisis economies are likely to decrease without government interventions. Although the uncertainity factor may contribute to an increase in short-term saving, an abated level in household income and corporate output and slow GDP growth will lead to a contraction in saving rates. Increased poverty, diminished public confidence in banking institutions, and the increased variability of business sales will further contribute to a reduction in saving rates of the household and corporate sectors. Keeping this in mind, the postcrisis saving policy should consider stronger macroeconomic stabilization policies to reduce the underlying economic uncertainty to encourage long-term savings/investments; improving the public confidence in financial institutions through financial restructuring and a proper deposit insurance scheme in place; channeling informal sector saving into the formal financial institutions; and promoting propoor saving policies.     

Endogenous Growth and External Balance in a Small Open Economy

This paper puts forward an intertemporal model of a small open economy which allows for the simultaneous analysis of the determination of endogenous growth and external balance. The model assumes infinitely lived, overlapping generations that maximize lifetime utility, and competitive firms that maximize their net present value in the presence of adjustment costs for investment. Domestic securities are assumed perfect substitutes for foreign securities and the economy is assumed small in the sense of being a price taker in international goods and assets markets. It is shown that the endogenous growth rate is determined solely as a function of the determinants of domestic investment, such as the world real interest rate, the technology of domestic production and adjustment costs for investment and is independent of the preferences of domestic households and budgetary policies. The preferences of consumers and budgetary policies determine the savings rate. The current account and external balance are functions of the difference between the savings and the investment rates. The world real interest rate affects growth negatively but has a positive impact on external balance. The productivity of domestic capital affects growth positively but causes a deterioration in external balance. Population growth, government consumption and government debt affect the current account and external balance negatively, but do not affect the endogenous growth rate.     

Why Has China's Current Account Balance Converged after the Global Financial Crisis?

China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018. The new pattern offered fresh evidence for our understanding of China's current account dynamics. In this paper, we used flow of funds data to gauge its underlying driving forces. Specifically, by employing index decomposition analysis, we decomposed the current account from the perspective of savings and investment into three sectors: the household, corporate, and government sectors. We found that the decline in China's current account ratio was first driven by cyclical factors, i.e. weak corporate saving growth induced by the economic slump in 2009 as well as the following massive corporate investment bolstered by the government stimulus plan. However, such cyclical factors quickly subsided, and the subsequent current account balance reduction was later supported by structural factors, i.e. household savings declined enduringly and the Chinese government switched to a more expansionary fiscal policy. There are three possible explanations for the structural movement: reduced precautionary saving due to higher social security coverage ratio, lower corporate profits as a result of economic slowdown, and a twin deficit due to the government's more relaxed fiscal stance. The new facts, however, were not consistent with other current account theories focusing on long‐term aspects of the saving–investment account puzzle, especially those relating to China's special demographic characteristics.     

日本入关后对外贸易政策演变述析

日本入关后在经济贸易发展的过程中,政府强有力的宏观调控发挥了很大的作用,日本政府主导了对外贸易的发展及对外贸易政策的制定和实施。入关后,日本政府充分利用了关贸总协定(GATT)相关条款,一方面通过实施保护贸易政策为国内竞争力较弱的产业提供了充分发展的时间和市场空间;另一方面也实施了贸易和投资逐步自由化的政策。日本入关后到上世纪70年代中期以前实施的初级阶段战略性贸易政策是相当成功的,随后实施的高级阶段战略性贸易政策并没有取得很好地进一步提升日本经济实力的效果。     

Can China harness globalization to reap domestic carbon savings? Modeling international technology diffusion in a multi-region framework

This paper is devoted to examine the effect of globalization, particularly the international technology diffusion (ITD), on China's domestic carbon savings. Building on a multi-region global modeling framework, we explicitly consider both indigenous R&D and foreign technology diffusion as the dual drivers of endogenous technical change (ETC) for domestic carbon savings. Simulation results show that 1) traditional economic globalization policies like trade and FDI liberalization can boost the growth of production output, but this is at the cost of more fossil energy uses and carbon emissions; 2) technology globalization policies like removals of technology transfer barriers can facilitate the inflows of foreign technologies for domestic carbon savings; and 3) domestic emission control policies have an effect to induce restructuring and reorganization of production technology into a knowledge-intensive one and thus help lower climate compliance costs. Consequently, to create China's domestic carbon savings from globalization, policy should focus on promoting cross-country technology diffusion, beyond traditional cross-border transactions of product and capital goods. Domestic emission-based climate regulation should also be implemented to create market demand for carbon-efficient technologies and thus induce inflows of foreign advanced technologies.     

我国高储蓄率的成因及其对策探析

本文从储蓄结构深化研究我国高储蓄率的成因,提出降低我国储蓄率的思路主要是降低企业储蓄率和政府储蓄率。具体对策是尽快出台调整企业储蓄率政策;进一步完善社会保障体系;改革金融市场、健全金融机构及完善金融体制,还有合理调节收入分配差距。     

Mighty oaks from little acorns: Can microenterprise serve as the seedbed of industrialization?

How can microenterprises foster the development of an industrial sector featuring a dynamic medium or large enterprise sector? We propose two possible mechanisms, graduation of microenterprises and savings by microentrepreneurs. We examine the barriers to both mechanisms and reexamine policies designed to aid the sector. Projects aimed at the enterprise level are not likely to remove barriers to firms graduating or saving. Changes in macro policy may have a positive effect. Reforms of the legal and regulatory environment may be very important, and should be rethought with the mechanisms of the seedbed role specifically in mind.     

人民币国际化的发展目标与策略分析

伴随着中国一系列政策的出台,人民币国际化已经悄然启动.在当今的国际政治经济背景下,人民币国际化只能依靠中国经济与金融的强大,而高端货币是人民币国际化的终极目标.目前,人民币国际化还缺乏两个最重要的微观基础:中国外贸的自主优势与中资银行的广泛国际存在.稳步推进人民币国际化,需要做好以下几件事:短期内尽快出台人民币国际化的官方蓝图,中长期内稳步构架微观基础、促进宏观经济尤其是人民币币值的国内稳定.     

Export-Oriented Industrialization, Female Employment and Demographic Trends: A Long-term Comparative Perspective of Japan and the Four NIEs- 1950 to 1988.

In the long run there is a virtuous circle of export-oriented industrialization which may be described in a few words: facing a demographic boom, the major challenge was to create employments in large numbers, to achieve productivity gains and to improve income and education levels, which in turn will allow these countries to raise their savings rate and reduce their demographic growth¹.
1. Priority was to be given to employment creations in the modern sector.
2. The Export-Promotion policy drives to develop light and low technology industries employing a large majority of young, low-paid women.
3. Growth in the export sector leads to general growth and in particular generates a dynamic demand for domestic as well as for imported heavy industrial products. A bridge between light and heavy industry was created through Backward-Integration policies.
4. In spite of large surplus in manpower supply, real wages rose from the beginning of Export-Promotion policy implementation. Then rise in real wages accelerated progressively. The productivity growth made wage increases sustainable in the long run. The wage gap was so high that there is still an important price advantage of manpower for East-Asian countries.
5. Improving standards of living and adequate family planning policies resulted in a declining demographic growth.
6. The high growth rate of income was accompanied by a very fast rising household's savings ratio.     

Globalization as a Development Strategy in Latin America?

The swinging of the pendulum toward policies that enhance Latin America’s insertion into the world economy diverted attention from domestic policies that continue to be essential for growth and development broadly defined. Six domestic policy areas are identified here: increasing domestic savings, implementing countercyclical fiscal policies, mobilizing public resources, investing in education, promoting employment, and reducing income inequality. The opportunity cost of not having devoted due attention to these issues throughout the 1990s is surely enormous, and for those countries still underplaying domestic variables, the longer the delay the greater the costs. The imperative of devoting more political capital to domestic strategies of development cannot be overstated––whether international financial institutions choose to emphasize them or not.     

Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

从“高储蓄、高投资、低消费”看我国双顺差

本文指出"高储蓄、高投资、低消费"的恶性循环正是国内一系列经济问题的矛盾根源,并最终导致了双顺差的出现。文章进一步对形成这一恶性循环的原因进行了分析,指出解决问题的关键在于改变政府主导的不合理的分配方式,实行以扩大消费需求为导向的经济发展政策。     

中国汇率政策与财政政策的搭配研究

近年来,中国的失业问题引起了社会各界的广泛关注,政府也出台了多项改革措施,目的是为了维持宏观经济内部均衡。但是,随着我国进出口顺差的持续增大,用于调节外部失衡的人民币汇率政策却一直没有调整。因此,这两者搭配是否合理值得研究。本文对中国汇率政策与财政政策的搭配进行实证分析,并提出了改善这两大经济政策搭配的对策建议。     

Household savings in China

The domestic saving rate in China is the highest in the world and it surpasses the investment share in GDP, which is also very high by international standards. This excessive saving results in a large current account surplus. Understanding why the Chinese save so much is a central issue in the debate on global imbalances. The goal of our paper is to analyse empirically Chinese household saving behaviour taking into account the disparities within the country, at the provincial level and between rural and urban households. We first show that, notwithstanding the rising contribution of government and firms to national savings the real peculiarity lies with Chinese families. We move from Modigliani and Cao's (2004) attempt to explain rising personal saving in China within the life cycle hypothesis and show how a more careful analysis indicates that life-cycle determinants do not suffice, especially in the most recent period. Once we consider regional differences and distinguish urban and rural households using provincial-level data, it becomes clear that additional explanations are needed and that precautionary motives and liquidity constraints are playing an important role. Our results suggest that in order to reduce the propensity to save of Chinese households it is necessary to improve social services provision and to facilitate the access to credit.     

Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.     

我国应对金融危机的凯恩斯主义政策效力分析

凯恩斯主义的逻辑与内涵就是针对经济中所存在的问题，由政府从供给与需求、短期与长期、微观与宏观层面对经济进行干预以解决这些问题。文章认为，在应对2008年的金融危机中，我国政府实施了凯恩斯主义的救世政策。文章通过分析金融危机前国内经济面临的问题及危机后的凯恩斯主义政策效力，发现我国在金融危机中采取的凯恩斯主义政策并没有针对性地解决原有问题。     

吉林省主导产业发展中的政策支持研究

吉林省政府的政策支持对主导产业的发展十分重要。通过分析主导产业发展存在的问题,强调了政府引导的作用,并指出政府提供政策支持应注意的问题。提出吉林省政府应明确其角色,健全市场机制,制定区域产业政策,给予资金和技术支持等建议。