The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates

A productivity-based model of East Asian relative prices and real exchange rates is tested using calculated productivity levels for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time-series regressions of the exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate such a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, and the Philippines (and Indonesia and Korea when oil prices are included). Panel regression provides slightly more encouraging results when the panel encompasses a subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines). Neither government spending nor the terms of trade appear to be important factors.     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

Does fiscal decentralization affect local governments' strategic behaviours? Evidence from South Korea

Local governments tend to show strategic behaviours when making their spending decisions. However, few studies have examined strategic behaviours when promoting fiscal decentralization. Thus, this study empirically examines the presence of strategic interactions in expenditure decisions in South Korea as well as how fiscal decentralization affects those interactions, using a panel data set from 2010 to 2017. The results demonstrate that a local government mimics other governments' spending when those governments' residents share similar age demographics. Moreover, local governments in South Korea engage in strategic interactions as their expenditure side becomes more decentralized. However, local governments tend to demonstrate less isomorphic behaviour in welfare spending decisions when they have higher revenue decentralization. This is because local governments have no motive to emulate other welfare policies, as the central government delegates the provision of social services to local governments by providing grants with strings attached.     

A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets

This study re-examines the random walk hypothesis for eight emerging equity markets in Asia: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The hypothesis is tested with two new variance ratio tests–Wright's rank and sign and Whang–Kim subsampling tests–as well as the conventional Lo–MacKinlay and Chow–Denning tests. We found that (i) the stock prices of the eight Asian countries do not follow random walk with the possible exceptions of Taiwan and Korea and (ii) the accelerated opening of the eight stock markets to foreign investors following the Asian financial crisis in 1997 has not significantly altered the mean-reversion patterns of stock price vis-à-vis relative market efficiency. Our study affirms that Wright's and Whang–Kim's tests yield far less ambiguous results as compared to Lo–MacKinlay and Chow–Denning tests.     

Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?

This paper investigates fiscal policy sustainability in Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Venezuela using competing methodologies. Standard unit roots and cointegration analyses do not endorse the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint. In contrast, to varying degrees across countries, alternative testing employing a fiscal policy reaction function indicates sustainability defined as surplus adjustments in response to higher debt‐to‐income ratios. Corresponding debt‐dynamics analyses show that corrective measures were put in place to revert non‐sustainable trends in government debt. However, ancillary variables in the debt modeling produce statistically weak evidence of procyclical fiscal behavior in the Latin American countries.     

Estimates of the steady state growth rates for selected Asian countries with an extended Solow model

This paper develops an extended version of the Solow (1956) growth model in which total factor productivity is assumed a function of two important externalities viz., learning by doing and openness to trade. Using this framework we show that these externalities have played an important role to improve the long run growth rates of six Asian countries viz., Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Korea and the Philippines. A few broad policies to improve the long run growth rates of these countries are suggested.     

Monetary Integration in East Asia: Evidence from Real Effective Exchange Rates

This paper investigates the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by examining the cointegration and causality of the real effective exchange rates of local currencies. A “pentagon” group of five countries is found—South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia—which may have potential for success for further monetary integration. Singapore is loosely tied to this group. The Greater China area—China, Hong Kong and Taiwan—does not show any significant degree of integration either internally or externally. Neither a yen bloc nor a US dollar bloc is forming in East Asia.     

Bond financed fiscal policy and the problem of instrument instability

Previous analyses of bond financed government expenditure policies have indicated stability problems but have considered only a once-for-all and sustained increase in government spending. In this paper we examine the bond financing of temporary government expenditure changes, which form part of an ongoing policy designed to “balance the budget over the business cycle.” We find that an endogenous fiscal policy can keep national output near its target value but that the effects on the national debt and the size of the public sector are likely not to be transitory. There is a strong tendency toward instrument instability, in that control of the economy forces the level of government spending to forever diverge from its equilibrium value.     

东亚新兴债券市场发展比较

积极发展和培育债券市场乃是金融危机后东亚新兴市场经济体调整金融结构的重中之重。本文就东亚新兴债券市场的市场规模、债券期限结构、二级市场流动性、债券投资者基础以及债券市场的基础设施建设等进行了比较。虽然都属于新兴债券市场，但所处的发展水平并不是整齐划一的。     

Does globalization affect the insurance markets? Bootstrap panel Granger causality test

This study applies the bootstrap panel Granger causality test to identify whether globalization promotes insurance activity using data from Sigma reports of the Swiss Reinsurance Company of 8 Eastern Asian countries over the period of 1979–2008. Empirically, results for one-way Granger causality show the influence of insurance activity on globalization only in Japan. However, there is strong interaction causality between globalization and insurance activity in India, South Korea, and Thailand. In our research, the results show that the causality between globalization and insurance activity varies across countries under different conditions. The findings of this study could provide important policy implications for the 8 Eastern Asian countries under study, namely India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand.     

Fiscal illusion and the demand for government expenditures in the UK

This paper examines whether variables commonly used to test standard fiscal illusion arguments (that tax structure affects voters' demands for public goods) can help explain the time-series behaviour of government expenditure in the UK during 1955–1994. We modify a standard median voter model to incorporate fiscal illusion via ‘less visible' (indirect) taxes and deficit financing. While we find evidence that both are positively associated with increased government spending, this would appear to be consistent with both fiscal illusion and standard efficiency arguments.     

Monetary policy synchronization in the ASEAN-5 region: an exchange rate perspective

In light of the long-standing vision of economic and monetary integration in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region and the importance of coordinating monetary policies to achieve it, the objective of this article is to assess the monetary policy synchronization among the founding members of the ASEAN, that is, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Due to the importance of exchange rate movements to monetary policies, we approach this issue from a currency exchange rate perspective. Specifically, multivariate trend–cycle decomposition is employed to investigate common trends and common cycles among the exchange rates of these countries during the period 1976–2012. Our analysis reveals that the real exchange rates of Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand share common cycles in the short term and have common trends in the long term, but the Indonesian currency does not share these relationships. Thus, our results augur well for the synchronization of monetary policies among Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. In contrast, the relatively turbulent dynamics of the Indonesian rupiah evident in frequent bouts of stark depreciation separated by periods of steady depreciation over the past three decades raise questions regarding the readiness of Indonesia for participating in a monetary alliance with the ASEAN-4 nations.     

The role of technology development in national competitiveness — Evidence from Southeast Asian countries

Technology development (TD) plays a key role in national competitiveness (NC) by giving a country a competitive edge in our age of information. Lots of researchers have focused on specific areas of TD, such as technology transfer, technology acquisition, and technology management, in most of developed countries. To our knowledge, however, they have seldom discussed the influence of TD on other categories of NC and vice-versa in developing and less-developed countries. In this study, we examine the influences of each category of NC of TD. Southeast Asian countries are divided into three patterns by means of a cluster analysis. The results show that Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Laos have the same rank on measures of TD and NC. Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Laos have the same rank on measures of TD and Economic Performance. Malaysia and Thailand have the same rank on measures of TD and Management Capability. In contrast, the TD performance of Southeast Asian countries is worse than the human resources performance because of their insufficient human resources assigned to R&D. Furthermore, based on a strategic grid for comparing the relative performance, four types of country and their achievements are discussed. Singapore outperforms all Southeast Asian countries. Malaysia and Thailand have to leverage their TD resources in order to enhance their NC. The other countries are still hindered in developing the determinants of their NC. Finally, our study offers a path to the identification of how countries of each pattern should supplement their insufficient capabilities, and what are the most important issues that need to be addressed in retuning their TD policies in order to enhance their NC.     

Impact of oil price shocks on output,inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries

This article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output, inflation and the real exchange rate in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia (ASEAN-5) using a Structural VAR model. The cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run. The impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the ASEAN-5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters. The variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration. We also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between Malaysia and Singapore and between the Philippines and Thailand. The pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses; they do not share any commonalities across the group.     

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF GLOBALIZATION: THE IMPACT OF ENTRY TO THE WTO ON CHINA'S GROWTH

A panel data method is used to evaluate the impact of China's accession to the WTO. Time‐series data for China, Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the UK, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the USA and Taiwan are used to construct the growth path that what would have been followed had there been no entry by China to the WTO. We find that from 2002 to 2007, accession to the WTO raised China's real economic growth rate by 2.4%, its export growth rate by 13.2% and its import growth rate by 18.89% a year.     

Empirical Study of Scapegoat Theory Paradigm in the Exchange Rate Variable in the ASEAN 5

This paper attempts to explain empirically the effect of order flow as an unobserved variable on the exchange rate movements based on the theory of scapegoat. The theory of scapegoat appears as the answer to the imbalance in the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate. To analyze the validity of this theory in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand (ASEAN 5), we apply the two-stage least squares method. The empirical testing generates a fact that the paradigm of scapegoat theory works for four countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Another finding is that the theory of scapegoat does not work for the Philippines. The implication of policy based on the results is the emphasis of policy that enables intervention in the foreign exchange market, the enhancement of monetary policy transparency in each country, as well as the management of capital flows more efficiently.     

The impact of institutions on financial development: Evidence from East Asian countries

This paper examines the impact of institutions on regional financial development using a panel data model of 11 East Asian countries during 1996–2017. It divides the institutional factors into six economic factors and six legal‐political factors. The analysis demonstrates that the legal‐political institutional factors have a stronger impact on financial development than the economic institutional factors in East Asia. Improvement in institutional quality such as fiscal freedom, business freedom, control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law can promote financial development. Improvements of these institutional factors facilitate the ability of enterprises to allocate resources and improve the strength of business operations, thereby reducing transaction costs and making the financial operating environment fairer and more efficient. With the improvement of institutional factors, financial development will have more opportunities to develop better. Institutional impacts are more pronounced in the financial development in Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar than in the other countries such as China, Japan, Korea and Singapore.     

ASIAN REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND OIL PRICES: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

We examine the long‐run relationship between Asian real exchange rates and oil prices in the presence of structural breaks. The relevance of considering breaks is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. procedure that allows for up to two predetermined breaks. Using conventional tests that do not consider breaks reveals no evidence of cointegration. However, the Johansen et al. procedure clearly demonstrates the importance of considering breaks and provides strong support for a stable long‐run relationship in all but Japan and the Philippines. Moreover, the results suggest evidence of bi‐directional causality in Malaysia and Thailand, uni‐directional causality from exchange rates to oil prices in Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, uni‐directional causality from oil prices to the exchange rate in Indonesia, and no evidence of causality in Japan.     

Public Preferences for Government Spending Priorities: Survey Evidence from Germany

Employing data from a representative survey conducted in Germany, this paper examines public preferences for the size and composition of government expenditure. We focus on public attitudes towards taxes, public debt incurrence and public spending in six different policy areas. Our findings suggest, first, that individual preferences for the use of additional tax money can be categorised as either capital‐oriented expenditure or public debt reduction. Second, we find that fiscal preferences differ along various dimensions. Specifically, personal economic well‐being, economic literacy, confidence in politicians, political ideology and time preference are significantly related to individual attitudes towards public spending, taxes and debt. The magnitude of the effects is particularly large for time preference, economic knowledge and party preference. Third, public preferences for public spending priorities are only marginally affected when considering a public budget constraint.