贷款风险分类中存在的问题及对策

对贷款进行风险五级分类，使贷款分类标准与国际惯例接轨，将成为我国银行为“入世”所做的适应性准备之一。     

金融

银监会在日前召开的2011年工作会议上提出,将在今年严密防范四大风险,包括信用风险、市场风险、操作风险和流动性风险。会议指出,要坚决守住风险底线,对平台贷款,要严格控制增量风险,并按照既定部署加快存量分类处置。要落实贷款“三查”,加大对贷款风险分类准确性及其责任的督查。对房地产领域风险,要继续实施差别化房贷政策。继续认真清理规范银信合作业务,要加强“防火墙”建设和并表管理,确保成本对称,坚决禁止监管套利。     

潜在风险贷款的识别与防范

潜在风险贷款是指借款人目前有能力偿还银行贷款本息，但存在一些可能对借款人将来如期偿还银行贷款本息产生不利影响的潜在风险因素，对信贷资产安全构成一定威胁的贷款。潜在风险贷款在五级分类形态上，主要表现为关注类贷款。当潜在风险不能及时识别和得到有效控制，就变成了现实的损失。正确识别潜在风险贷款，采取措施，进行有效控制和规避，对确保银行贷款安全具有十分重要的现实意义。[编者按]     

贷款分类中"剪刀差"的原因和对策

本文对我国商业银行近几年实行的两种贷款分类方法进行分析研究，指出两种贷款分类结果有较大差异，形成不良贷款“剪刀差”的原因，在于是否识别了贷款的内在风险。进一步指出：结构调整滞后，经营管理不善，要素市场发育不全是“后三类贷款”产生和积累的实体经济原因；赢利渠道单一和贷款管理不善是“后三类贷款”产生的银行方面原因。针对上述分析，本文不压缩贷款分类中的“剪刀差”、“识别和弥补内在风险”提出建议。     

从偏离度检查看贷款风险分类工作中存在的问题

科学准确地对贷款质量进行分类是监管当局有效监管的基础和前提。只有严格进行贷款分类,如实反映准备金缺口,才能充足提前拨备,真实反映利润。如果贷款分类发生偏离,就会影响贷款分类的准确性和真实性,掩盖信贷管理存在的问题和贷款的风险状况。从青海银监局对工、农、建、中四     

对实行贷款质量五级分类管理的思考

贷款五级分类制度是根据内在风险程度将贷款划分为正常、关注、次级、可疑、损失五类，其中后三类合称为不良贷款。这种分类方法主要依据借款人的还款可能性，即最终偿还贷款本金和利息的可能性，确定贷款遭受损失的风险程度，以此来揭示贷款真实价值的过程和结果。     

实施贷款五级分类管理对农信社改革经营的影响

贷款五级分类制度是根据内在风险程度将商业贷款划分为正常、关注、次级、可疑、损失五类。这种分类方法是银行主要依据借款人的还款能力，即最终偿还贷款本金和利息的实际能力，确定贷款遭受损失的风险程度，其中后三类称为不良贷款。此前的贷款四级分类制度是将贷款划分为正常、逾期、呆滞、呆账四类。     

应关注农信社贷款五级分类过程的四个问题

一、信贷人员素质低与五级分类准确定性的问题贷款五级分类与四级分类相比较,更能真实、全面、动态地反映贷款质量,揭示贷款的风险程度,但其工作量大、涉及知识面广,要求分类操作人员必须具备较系统的业务综合素质和丰富的实践经验,需要具备计算机、会     

农信社实施贷款风险分类制度的主要问题与影响

农信社将告别贷款“一逾两呆”的“期限分类法”,走向贷款风险分类法。本文认为,对于贷款风险分类这种以风险为核心的贷款分类制度,要通过科学的和积极的运用,才能达到预期效果。     

揭示风险实质是准确分类的关键

与以期限管理为主的贷款四级分类相比，贷款五级分类是根据风险程度对贷款质量做出评价的一种管理方法。尽管这种分类管理方法涉及面很广，有企业财务分析、现金流量分析、担保分析，还有企业非财务分析及外部经营环境和内部经营管理水平分析，但其核心只有一个，是对借款人还款能力有效性的判断，或说是对贷款遭受损失风险程度的估算．从而揭示贷款的实际价值。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.