The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

In a constantly changing economic environment, a country's ability to undertake institutional reforms is crucial to maintain economic growth and to promote the welfare of its citizens. A wide range of determinants for institutional reforms have been identified. However, the impact of trust on reforms has not been fully addressed. We provide theoretical arguments why trust should influence institutional changes and test the relationship empirically. We find a significant positive relation between trust and the success of reforms with regard to government size, the legal system, and deregulation of private businesses and the labor market. Other policy fields are ambiguous.     

论团体贷款对信贷市场低效率的可能改进

团体贷款以其骄人的还款率和在扶贫方面的突出表现吸引了众多经济学家和政策制定者的目光。但是 ,现有研究更多的是从不同角度来解释并不需要抵押或担保的团体贷款的还款率为何如此高 ,而忽视了团体贷款与个人贷款的效率的比较。对于“团体贷款的效率是否比个人贷款的效率更高 ?”和“团体贷款对信贷市场中的低效率问题有无改进以及是如何改进的 ?”等重要问题的回答构成了该研究领域中的核心内容。     

转移成本、价格歧视和非对称寡头竞争

通过在Hotelling空间差异模型的基础上结合转移成本构建非对称企业竞争博弈模型.主要研究在非对称情况下,两企业在一致定价与价格歧视下竞争的均衡结果.还对两种不同定价体制下的均衡结果进行了比较,分析价格歧视是否强化竞争.研究发现价格歧视对竞争的效应是不确定的,很大程度受到两企业不对称程度的影响.     

转移成本、价格歧视与银行竞争——基于霍特林模型的实证分析

在银行业竞争中,转移成本能够锁定消费者,使银行能够对锁定的消费者定一个较高的价格,但是,转移成本也使银行对没有被锁定的消费者的竞争更加激烈。研究发现,转移成本的存在增加了银行的利润,并且转移成本越高,银行从信贷中获得的利润越高。但是,当存在存款市场和贷款市场竞争时,由于价格歧视的存在,银行的利润随着转移成本的增加而降低,转移成本没有给银行带来优势。     

中小企业关系型融资研究

中小企业在国民经济发展中具有重要作用,但资金短缺成为制约中小企业发展的瓶颈。博弈分析证明传统的交易型借贷在中小企业和银行之间基本上是无效率的,而关系型融资更有助于解决中小企业融资难题。由于中小企业、银行及外部环境等相关因素影响,关系型融资在实际操作中具有一定的局限性。     

The Impact of Liquidity Constraints on Bank Lending Policy

This paper examines banks' provision of liquidity to depositors and provision of loans. The problem identified is that banks may not be able to provide new funds for borrowers who are short of cash, because either the return on investments is poor, or because depositors withdraw more funds than expected. Banks subject to liquidity shortages may ration loans to good borrowers. This problem is shown to depend upon the nature of the deposit contract and banks' inability to issue subordinated deposits. State contingent renegotiation of loans and matching of the duration of project returns and investment needs mitigates the problem.     

The determinants and profitability of switching costs in Chinese banking

This article models the determinants of bank switching costs in China in terms of bank characteristics and non-bank variables. It also determines the contribution of switching costs to banks’ profits. Using a sample of 151 banks over the period 2003–2013 it reports a positive relationship between bank profitability and switching costs. The main result is that bank size measured by total assets has a complex relationship with switching costs. Competition between small banks creates the incentive for lock-in and increased switching costs whereas very large banks are less exercised by lock-in and switching costs.     

关系型借贷对信贷违约的影响分析

选取2009年度上市公司财务数据,对企业的关系型借贷对信贷违约的影响进行实证分析,结果表明,无论对于大型企业还是中小企业,关系型借贷不会带来更高的违约风险,企业违约与企业的流动性比率、应收账款周转率以及企业规模大小有关。流动性强的企业违约率低,应收账款周转速度越快,违约率越低,中小企业比大型企业更容易违约。     

企业外部关系对内部创新活动的影响机制

越来越多的研究表明，企业的外部社会关系对内部创新活动产生巨大的影响，但对其影响机制的研究却非常缺乏。基于战略决策理论，本文以江苏省420家高科技企业为被试对象，对企业外部关系对内部创新活动的影响机制进行实证研究。结果表明，企业外部关系（产业外关系和产业内关系）通过影响战略决策过程（信息多样性、决策质量和战略创造性）对内部创新活动产生重要影响。     

国际货币的惯性及对人民币国际化的启示

随着人们对人民币国际化问题的普遍关注,货币的国际化成为国际金融领域的热点问题。利用货币竞争模型分析由于货币的网络外部性和转换成本的存在所造成的国际货币的惯性,从而解释世界上到底需要多少种国际货币、为什么在每个时期只能有一种货币可以成为真正意义上的国际货币、为什么一种货币想要取代已有的国际货币的过程都十分漫长等问题。对上述问题的解释启示我们在人民币国际化的过程中,要关注货币网络外部性和转换成本的影响,可以通过贸易逆差输出人民币和中国金融市场的发展来培育人民币的网络外部性。     

银企关系与中小企业成长——关系借贷价值的经验证据

文章利用世界银行在我国18个城市1186家中小企业调查的样本数据,对我国银企关系与中小企业成长的相关性进行了实证研究,发现样本企业建立关系银行的数量和维持银行关系的时间长度与企业成长具有负相关关系,而中小企业与银行采用关系借贷融资所形成的关系深度与企业的成长却具有显著的正相关性,并在规模较大的企业、非国有企业和处于弱市场竞争环境下的企业群体中有所体现.文章为中小企业关系借贷理论在中国的实践提供了经验证据,揭示了中小企业培育紧密银企关系的应用价值.     

The Relative Price of Services

Prices of GDP relative to the exchange rate increase with income per capita, which is known as the Penn‐effect. This is generally attributed to services being cheaper relative to goods in poorer countries. In this paper we re‐examine the Penn‐effect based on a new set of PPPs for industry output. These are estimated in an augmented Geary–Khamis approach using prices for final goods, exports, and imports. The resulting multilateral PPPs cover 35 industries in 42 countries for the year 2005. We find large variation in relative prices of various services industries. In particular the Penn‐effect appears to be mostly due to the rapidly rising output prices of non‐market services. This seems related mainly to the high labor intensity of that sector.     

Testing, hold up and the dynamics of preferences

This paper presents an overlapping generations model with cultural transmission of preferences in an economy in which players face a hold up problem. One of the players, the firm, can use a testing technology which allows him to imperfectly monitor his partner's behaviour. This technology is completely useless with homogeneous preferences. We obtain that in the stable steady state of the economy there is a mixed distribution of preferences where both selfish and other-regarding preferences are present in the population. Moreover, with a good testing technology, the steady state is characterized by the first-best result in the investment decisions. JEL Classification: C78, D23, D63 The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology project SEC2001-2763. This paper has also benefited from comments of participants in the XXVIII Spanish Symposium of Economic Analysis in Seville (Spain), in the International Workshop on Social and Behavioral Economics in Valencia (Spain), in the 2nd World Congress of the Game Theory Society in Marseille and in the VI Spanish Meeting on Game Theory and Practice in Elche (Spain).     

The Impact of Price Regulation on the Cost of Capital

This paper investigates how price regulation under moral hazard can affect a regulated firm's cost of capital. We consider stylized versions of the two most typical regulatory frameworks that have been applied in the most recent decades by regulators: Price Cap and Cost of Service. We show that there is a trade‐off between lower operational costs and a higher cost of capital under Price Cap regulation and higher operational costs and a lower cost of capital under Cost of Service regulation. As a result, when the extent of moral hazard is not significant, Price Cap regulation generates lower welfare than does Cost of Service regulation.     

企业在同质产品市场的差异化战略行为——一个对我国反垄断立法的产业组织理论解释

我国在加入WTO后,一些重要的服务领域面临着全面对外开放。由于转换成本的存在,使得该领域中本来在购买前功能相近的同质商品或服务,在购买后成为异质的商品。企业因而拥有相对于消费者的事后垄断的权力。为此,企业有动机在初期采取战略行为吸引消费者。这既缓和了后续阶段的企业间竞争,也在整体上将该行业的产品价格维持较高水平。它可能会降低社会效率和消费者福利。文章通过分析企业间在同质商品市场竞争的市场效果和福利后果,为在我国该领域反垄断立法提供了理论解释。     

What Stops Dutch Households from Taking Up Much Needed Benefits?

It is common for individuals not to take up welfare benefits. The most common explanation is that people make a rational choice between the utility they expect from the benefit and the effort required to take‐up. Most studies utilize surveys, which are subject to misreporting and measurement errors, to determine eligibility and non‐take‐up rates. This study uses a novel dataset based on administrative data sources, which provides a more accurate identification of eligible households and take‐up. Furthermore, this study documents non‐take‐up of a compensation to which nearly 5 million Dutch households are entitled. The richness of the data allowed us to conduct a detailed analysis of key drivers of non‐take‐up. The analysis largely confirms the transaction‐costs hypotheses. However, we found an unexpected effect. Although, in general, the probability of take‐up increases when income decreases, those with the lowest income or wealth do not have the highest probability of take‐up.     

Price dispersion and the stability of trade*

Research on trade relationships has documented a high rate of relationship breakup and churning. We use data on Norwegian exports to document two stylized facts about the stability of trade relationships. First, the probability of relationship breakup increases in the deviation of the relationship-specific price from a reference price. Second, relationship hazards follow Zipf's law. We propose a search model with limited information and search frictions to explain these facts. Reference prices provide information on outside trade options that inform optimal breakups, leading to the first stylized fact. Strong heterogeneity in breakup frictions across relationships can explain the Zipf's law hazards.     

能源价格变动对经济增长与通货膨胀的影响——基于我国1996～2005年间的数据分析

基于1996~2005年的时间序列数据,本文就中国能源价格变动对经济增长与通货膨胀的影响进行了实证研究。实证结果表明在中国实际GDP、能源价格以及通货膨胀之间存在着长期均衡关系;能源价格变动对经济增长短期呈现负向冲击,它引起的成本推动是本轮通货膨胀的主要原因。     

国际农产品价格上涨对中国宏观经济的影响

在全球农产品价格不断上涨的背景下,基于GTAP模型和数据库,使用一般均衡方法定量测算国际农产品价格上涨对中国宏观经济指标和各行业影响的分析表明,国际农产品价格上涨将导致中国农产品价格上升,进而传导至各部门并影响价格、产出、就业等各项指标,导致社会总体福利降低,随着价格上涨幅度的增加,其负效应也随之相应增加.国际农产品价格的上涨对行业的影响也体现出一定的结构性特征,即国内农业受其影响出现扩张的同时,其他产业则出现了紧缩.