Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport

This paper develops a methodology for assessing the future route network and flight schedule at a medium-sized European airport. The starting point is the existing origin and destination demand from the base airport across the world. This is expanded using growth rates by country or region for the period up to year 2015. The future origin and destination demand is then converted into route traffic, subject to a threshold for direct service. Where demand falls below this level, traffic is reallocated via various appropriate hubs. A model of frequency and aircraft size is applied to estimate the future air service on each route and a schedule created, allocating these flights to specific times of day. The scenario where the base airport operates as a hub is then investigated. This involves identifying a suitable hub model, considering geographical and competitive issues. The origin and destination demand is increased, resulting in an enlarged network of routes. Flights are then scheduled within the constraints of an optimal wave pattern. The outputs are of considerable interest in long-term airport planning and also offer an insight into future airline network strategies and opportunities.     

Modelling inbound international tourism demand to Portugal

In this paper the Johansen cointegration analysis of time series is used to model the Portuguese inbound international tourism demand from five countries of origin—France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and UK. This approach examines the long‐run relationships between the demand for holiday visits and the variables that affect holiday travel such as income, destination prices and travel costs (airfares and road costs). Demand functions, for each country of origin, are estimated using annual data on tourism flows from 1975 to 1997. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robustness of Distance Decay for International Pleasure Travelers: A Longitudinal Approach

Distance decay explains tourism demand in terms of destination distance from the origin. Although travelers tend to travel further over time, scant research studies have examined the relationship between temporal variant and distance decay. This study examines the relationship between distance and destination choice of Hong Kong international pleasure travelers’ activity over a decade. A constant pattern of distance decay with two secondary peaks was identified for a decade. This study suggests a threshold of a three‐hour flight for a five‐day trip before demand declined exponentially. The findings imply that the no traveling zone would result from weak pulling power. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anticipating long-distance travel shifts due to self-driving vehicles

Increasing population and travel demand has prompted new efforts to model travel demand across the United States. One such model is rJourney that estimates travel demand among thousands of regions and models mode and destination choice. rJourney includes records representing 1.17 billion long-distance trips throughout the year 2010. Although inter-regional impacts caused by an increase of automated vehicles (AVs) has been investigated, there is little research on inter-regional travel and how longer distance destination and mode choices will change. Because of conveniences offered by AVs, the value of travel time of drivers is expected to fall, thus reducing the generalized cost of AV travel. To initially analyze the impacts of AVs in the United States, a new AV mode was added to a subset of the rJourney mode and destination choice models. With an initial scenario assuming an operating cost of AVs that is 118% of traditional cars, two outcomes are observed that are solely based on model results. First, the attractiveness of AVs severely digs into the airline travel market, reducing airline revenues to 53%. Second, the introduction of AVs results in a shift of destination choice, increasing travel in further distances for personal vehicles, but favoring closer distances across all modes, for an overall 6.7% decline in US passenger-miles traveled on existing long-distance trips. While this preliminary research has revealed an initial perspective on how an existing model can support AVs, the increasing availability of data as AVs emerge will refine nationwide long-distance modeling.     

Segmenting Mainland Chinese Tourists to Taiwan by Destination Familiarity: a Factor‐cluster Approach

This research examines the effectiveness of destination familiarity as a segmentation variable. Based on the traditional destination‐choice model, which suggests that customers might eliminate unfavorable destinations in the early stages of information search process, this research proposes that familiar customers should possess more favorable destination images and higher visiting intentions than unfamiliar customers. As the results confirm the positive effects of destination familiarity on destination image and travel intention, the effectiveness of destination familiarity as a segmentation variable is also verified. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating the Attractiveness of an Emerging Long‐Haul Destination: Implications for Loyalty

Although several studies have demonstrated a positive relationship between destination attractiveness and loyalty, most published research has focused on travellers from geographically close markets and on mature destinations. This study adopts a demand‐side perspective to investigate these concepts for an emerging long‐haul destination (South Africa). A survey was conducted among a sample of Italian tourists to explore the determinants of destination attractiveness and to investigate the effect of destination attractiveness on tourists' loyalty. Moreover, this study considers the moderating role of previous travel experience on the relationship between attractiveness and loyalty. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating an origin–destination table for US imports of waterborne containerized freight

Containerized freight imports into the US are growing at an average of 10% per year. This traffic is concentrated at a small number of US seaports. It is therefore important to have an accurate understanding of the flow of containers from their origin country through these seaports to their final destination. This paper develops an optimization model to estimate route flows and a corresponding multi-modal origin–destination table for containers by synthesizing data on international trade and railcar movements with a gravity model for the demand of container traffic. This analysis provides insights into the balance of rail and truck inland transportation from each port.     

Destination Attractiveness Drivers among Urban Hostel Tourists: An Analysis of Frustrators and Delighters

This study is based on data from 679 tourists staying at hostel accommodation facilities in Zagreb, a propulsive city‐break destination in Central Europe. Besides providing insight into the socio‐demographic and behavioural characteristics of hostel tourists, this study uncovers determinant destination attributes influencing their perceptions of destination attractiveness. In particular, impact asymmetry analysis identified potential sources of delight and frustration among hostel tourists. Since the hostel tourist segment, as such, is almost completely unconsidered in contemporary tourism research, partly covered only by a few studies on youth travellers and backpackers, the results of this case study are valuable to both practitioners and researchers related to the hostelling industry and city destination marketing organizations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gay men's holiday destination choice: a case of risk and avoidance

Gay men are subject to discrimination and social disapproval in many parts of the world. This paper examines the possible impact of this on choice of holiday destination, drawing on the concepts of risk and destination avoidance. A number of interviews were held with gay men and it was concluded that risk of adverse reactions and of the need to modify behaviour were significant issues in destination avoidance and choice. It is possible, as a consequence, to classify holiday‐taking by gay men into a typology including gay‐centric and gay‐related. In addition, it is appropriate to modify existing models of risk‐avoidance through the addition of the risks that are more applicable to gay men than to other tourists. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Work,travel and home: a study of remembrance activity

A quantitative study conducted in the Australian regional city of Ballarat resulted in a sample which had a high proportion of people with a personal connection to war and remembrance through family. This connection was reflected in higher levels of visitation to local, state and overseas war memorials. A factor analysis suggested that some kinds of remembrance could be grouped into a three part structure based upon creative activities of Work such as writing history, volunteer and paid military work and collecting, Travel to overseas and domestic memorials and informal appreciation of artefacts at Home. The Home group represents the most frequent form of remembrance, practiced at a social scale and which results from the creative activity of individuals. The study therefore supports the notion that individual and social remembrance and memory are closely linked and can be identified with patterns of travel. A potentially large group of people who appeared to have little interest in war remembrance was also identified.     

Benefit Segmentation of Seaside Destination in the Phase of Market Repositioning: the Case of Portorož

The purpose of the paper is to present benefit segmentation of visitors to Portorož, a mature seaside Mediterranean destination, during a phase of repositioning, to understand whether it attracts visitors who seek benefits other than just passive leisure, which characterized Portorož in the past. Four distinct segments of visitors and their characteristics were identified. The largest segment, ‘well‐being visitors’, is looking for physical activity and convenience. The results give us better insight into the demand side; on the other hand, they have practical implications for tourism suppliers, who try to adapt their product to new conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Congestion affecting the dynamic of tourism demand: evidence from the most popular destinations in Spain

In this study, we propose a dynamic econometric model for tourism demand which takes into account the implications of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory on tourism demand. Unlike other dynamic models, in our specification the effect of the lagged demand on the current tourism demand is not constant, but dependent on congestion. We estimate the model using disaggregated data from the most visited Spanish municipalities for the period 2006–2015. Two panel data estimations are carried out: one with the coastal tourist resorts and the other one with the inland municipalities. The results show that tourism congestion reduces the positive previous tourist effect on current arrivals, suggesting that increasing congestion could worsen the attraction of a tourist destination. Congestion is more negatively perceived in inland destinations than coastal ones. Finally, a strong persistence in tourism demand for coastal destinations is shown.     

Selling adventure tourism: a distribution channels perspective

This paper examines the distribution channels structure as well as the underlying factors influencing the most prominent channel choices within the adventure tourism industry. It is based on in‐depth interviews with adventure tourism operators in Queenstown, New Zealand. The findings suggest that the distribution structure is similar to other attraction sectors and that business size has some bearing on the ‘length’ of the distribution chains. However, regardless of business size, the sector places a clear priority on ‘at destination’ distribution, and the factors underlying this choice were found to be varied and reflective of both sector‐specific demand and supply characteristics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model

This paper investigates dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate, using the case of China, and from a new perspective by using copula–GARCH models. The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate is not a determinant factor in fluctuation of China's inbound tourism demand from the countries being studied. Furthermore, only Russia exhibits risk-adverse behaviour with extreme SUR depreciation, or CNY appreciation associated with an extreme decline in arrivals. Third, introducing the tail dependence and dynamic dependence between growth rates of tourism demand and exchange rate add much to the explanatory ability of the model. The findings of this study have important implications for destination manager and travel agent as it helps to understand the impact of exchange rates on China inbound tourism demand and provide a complementary academic approach on evaluating the role of exchange rates in the international tourism demand model.     

Economic measures of tourism yield: what markets to target?

An understanding of the yield potential of different source markets and segments can underpin destination marketing by both public and private sector organisations. The standard yield measure relates to expenditure injected into a destination from different market segments. This measure has several limitations, which are discussed in the paper. With the increasing sophistication of economic models such as computable general equilibrium, models, it is now feasible to develop new and more useful measures of tourism yield, which directly measure the gains to different stakeholders. Several economy‐wide impact measures of yield are developed and contrasted for selected Australian inbound tourism markets. The measures produce conflicting signals for public and private sector tourism marketers and planners. The reward from further research in developing and operationalising yield measures is more informed policy‐making by destination managers in respect of destination marketing and new product development, resulting in greater economic gains from inbound tourism. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rationalising terror‐related risks: the case of Israeli tourists in Sinai

Research into tourist reactions to terror requires qualitative studies that provide insight into the affective and cognitive processes that tourists experience when facing terror‐related risks. The study responds to this need by focusing on Israeli tourists who voluntarily travelled to the terror‐threatened destination of Sinai, Egypt. Applying ethnographic methods, the study identifies two major rationalisations tourists used to reduce their perceived risk: (i) inward‐oriented rationalisations that reduce the perceived risk of the destination by stressing the safety within it; and (ii) outward‐oriented rationalisations that reduce the perceived risk of the destination by emphasising the terror‐related risks, which exist elsewhere. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonutilitarian Tourism Destination Positioning: A Case Study in China

This paper develops and applies a conceptual model of nonutilitarian tourism destination positioning. Tourist's nonutilitarian decision mechanisms (affective choosing and self‐congruity) are linked with destination positioning. A repositioning case of Dalian as a marine city destination versus its four competitors is used to demonstrate the model's guiding value. Through statistical analyses of MANOVA, ANOVAs and independent t‐tests, the findings indicate the differentiating affective image attribute and brand personality trait most useful for Dalian's positioning. A suggested nonutilitarian positioning strategy for Dalian, corresponding managerial and theoretical implications and future study considerations are finally summarized. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural Relationships among Destination Preference,Satisfaction and Loyalty in Chinese Tourists to Australia

This study quantifies the relationship among destination preference, destination satisfaction and destination loyalty. Destination loyalty consists of two dimensions: word‐of‐mouth (WOM) and destination attachment (DA). It is found that WOM is directly affected by destination satisfaction, whereas DA is predetermined by the destination preference of tourists before a visit. Thus, the destination experience is the crucial factor in the spread of positive WOM about a destination. Nevertheless, to develop tourists' DA, effective loyalty schemes should be implemented through marketing efforts before they visit a destination. The findings of this study can be used by destinations to analyze and evaluate their loyalty‐building process and marketing strategy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Synergies in destination image management: a case study and conceptualisation

This paper addresses the question of how operators and destination authorities work within a destination region, illustrating a method by which the problems resulting from different geographical scales and objectives of business units can be tackled through co‐operative marketing within a strong destination image. Following a review of the literature, a case study covering the research underpinning a cooperative marketing programme involving hotels in Port Douglas, Tropical North Queensland (TNQ) is presented. The research methodology is outlined. The policy implications of the findings for the State Tourist Organisation and for organisations involved in destination image management are considered, and a conceptual model of cooperative marketing at the destination level is proposed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Domestic tourism destination choices — a choice modelling analysis

Tourism destinations compete with each other to attract visitors. Although international tourism has received a lot of attention, domestic tourism remains the mainstay for many destinations. To inform the basis on which destinations compete, an understanding of the determinants of destination choices is required. In this paper, the discrete choice modelling method is applied to investigate the determining factors underlying the short‐break holiday destination choices of prospective tourists from Melbourne, Australia. The results from an estimated nested logit model indicate the relative importance of a number of destination and trip attributes and respondent characteristics. The model results are used to simulate the effects on destinations' market shares resulting from various changes in attributes and tourist characteristics. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.