Diffusion of multi-generational high-technology products

Previous multi-generational product diffusion (MGPD) models were developed based on the diffusion patterns at that time, but may not be adopted in today's cases. By incorporating the effect of customers' forward-looking behaviour, this paper offers a parsimonious and original model that captures the dynamics of MGPD in current high-technology markets. We empirically examine the feasibility of using previous MGPD models and our suggested model to explain the market growth of new products from high-technology industries. The results show that the new model exhibits better curve fitting and forecasting performance than the prior MGPD models in the cases of this study. For marketing researchers, our model and its results suggest customers' forward looking behaviour is perhaps one of the key sales affecting factors that are missing in previous MGPD models in explaining nowadays' cases. For marketing practitioners, this study offers a valuable tool for marketing strategies in high-tech industries.     

The Price Evolution in China's Automobile Market

The automobile market in China has seen unprecedented expansion during the past decade with rapid model turnover and dramatic price decline. This paper aims to document the evolution of price and investigate the sources of price decline, paying attention to both market structure and cost factors. We estimate a market equilibrium model with differentiated multiproduct oligopoly using market‐level sales data in China together with information from household surveys. Our counterfactual simulations show that (quality‐adjusted) vehicle prices have dropped by 33% from 2004 to 2009. The decrease in markup from intensified competition accounts for about one third of this change and the rest comes from cost reductions through learning by doing and other channels. In addition, our simulations show that the price decline would have been larger had it not been for the growth of household income during this period.     

Panel data estimates of the production function and product and labor market imperfections

Consistent with two models of imperfect competition in the labor market—the efficient bargaining model and the monopsony model—we provide two extensions of a microeconomic version of Hall's framework for estimating price‐cost margins. We show that both product and labor market imperfections generate a wedge between factor elasticities in the production function and their corresponding shares in revenue, which can be characterized by a ‘joint market imperfections parameter’. Using an unbalanced panel of 10,646 French firms in 38 manufacturing industries over the period 1978–2001, we can classify these industries into six different regimes depending on the type of competition in the product and the labor market. By far the most predominant regime is one of imperfect competition in the product market and efficient bargaining in the labor market (IC‐EB), followed by a regime of imperfect competition in the product market and perfect competition or right‐to‐manage bargaining in the labor market (IC‐PR), and by a regime of perfect competition in the product market and monopsony in the labor market (PC‐MO). For each of these three predominant regimes, we assess within‐regime firm differences in the estimated average price‐cost mark‐up and rent sharing or labor supply elasticity parameters, following the Swamy methodology to determine the degree of true firm dispersion. To assess the plausibility of our findings in the case of the dominant regime (IC‐EB), we also relate our industry and firm‐level estimates of price‐cost mark‐up and extent of rent sharing to industry characteristics and firm‐specific variables respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tests on the validity of static equilibrium models

This paper provides a framework to test the validity of static cost minimizing equilibrium assumptions that form the basis for much of the empirical literature on industrial production. The point of departure in our model is to allow the observed technology to be at a short-run equilibrium where firms minimize variable costs while being constrained by the utilization levels of quasi-fixed factors. The long-run equilibrium is then inferred by minimizing total costs with the optimal adjustment of quasi-fixed factor levels.We use results from the optimization problem to form tests with respect to quantities and prices. In the quantity space version, departures between the actual and the optimal long-run levels of quasi-fixed factors are tested for statistical significance. A significant non-zero departure implies the rejection of a static equilibrium specification. In the price space version, the test is cast as a comparison of the market price and the long-run shadow value of a quasi-fixed factor. Although the two versions would give identical results in the non-stochastic case, the rejection powers of these two tests are found to depend on the particular functional form chosen to represent the production process (i.e. cost function).In an application based on aggregate U.S. manufacturing where capital is taken to be quasi-fixed, we were able to reject the static equilibrium specification. These results cast doubt on the validity of a number of previous empirical studies.     

建筑施工企业人工成本价格计算模型

由于我国经济的快速发展以及劳务市场供求关系的变化,如何确定人工成本价格和投标合理单价成为了企业亟待解决的问题,本文提出了人工成本价格及投标合理单价的计算模型,是企业投标报价及施工过程中人工费控制的有效依据。     

Technology: Measuring the socioeconomic impact of manufacturing automation

In this report the potential savings of computer-directed manufacturing systems are hypothesized. It is contended that computer-directed automation of manufacturing is a continuation of the ongoing technological progress that the United States has been experiencing. Technological progress has significantly contributed to the growth of the GNP, permitting a high rate of return on investment. It is our contention that the development of computer-based automation will yield benefits greater than those produced by conventional technological progress. However, this present paper examines cost savings rather than contribution to growth. The reduction in the production costs of the discrete manufacturing sector made possible by computer-based automation is hypothesized by assuming the existence of an automated factory, although such a factory is in reality perhaps several decades away. Many assumptions are made about costs, their components and relationships. Case studies, literature references, opinions of consultants, and other informed but conjectural judgments provide the basis for the hypothesis.The impacts of computer-directed manufacturing automation upon environment, employment, general price level, urban/rural mix, and international trade are also conjectured. A number of definitions and distinctions are made with respect to automation, productivity, technology, and related points.     

Economics of total quality management

This paper presents two models of the economics of total quality management. In the first, the concept of quality management is viewed as a technological innovation that requires investment. To reduce cost and improve quality, firms must make investments that are largely sunk. The effect of market competition on quality related technology investments is studied. Several results follow. With new quality technologies, price falls, quality rises and average cost declines. Firms must anticipate rivals' technology choices and the market prices when justifying quality technology investments. When all firms quickly adopt quality technology, returns of such investments are normal, that is, have a zero net present value. However, firms that do not invest in quality related technology are forced from the market. A firm that is faced by competitors that are slow to adopt quality related technology, can earn positive returns by early adoption. The firm invests more in quality related technology, and produces higher quality products, charges a higher price and earns higher profits than competitors. The firm's quality, price and profit advantages persist over time. In the second model, we show that firm value increases when customer satisfaction is used as an objective by aligning incentives. This explains the common use of customer satisfaction measures in TQM programs.     

Price stickiness and markup variations in market games

In this paper, we show that the Shapley–Shubik market game model with production naturally generates an equilibration mechanism that can accommodate price stickiness arising from strategic interactions of firms. Unlike New Keynesian models that show similar price stickiness results, the market game model does not require enforcing menu costs or other additional restraints on price adjustment mechanisms in order to generate price stickiness. As such, we suggest that the market game model can provide a good micro-foundation for macroeconomic analysis. We then explicitly show the relationship between a typical firm’s markup of price over marginal cost and its market share.     

Multi-modal,multi-output,multiregional variable input-output model

A multi-modal, multi-output, multiregional variable input-output (MMMVIO) model is introduced to evaluate the economic impact of a transportation system. The MMVIO model differs from the conventional input-output models by being price and cost sensitive. The regional technical coefficients, trade coefficients, modal choice of shipment, input mix and output composition are determined by the price and cost variables, a property not shared by the conventional input-output models.The transportation system reduces shipping cost of delivering commodities between regions, thereby stimulating economy of trading regions. The MMMVIO model captures the development impact incident to the transportation system.     

Economic fluctuations,market power,and returns to scale: Evidence from firm-level data

Recent research on aggregate fluctuations, coupled with ongoing work in industrial organization, has renewed interest in the existence, magnitude, and cyclical pattern of market power and the extent of increasing returns to scale. By exploiting restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets, we present a framework for generating quantitative evidence on market power and returns to scale. Tailoring the econometric model to firm-level panel data, we calculate the percentage differential between price and marginal cost (the Lerner index) in terms of the parameters from the econometric system. Results for firms in eleven industries indicate that there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the extent of market power. Industries with significantly positive Lerner indices tend to have substantial increasing returns in the production technology. We find that there is only a modest relation between our estimated Lerner indices and traditional measures of market power and that, when market power varies temporally, it is usually procyclical. Thus, variations in the markup of price over marginal cost may help dampen aggregate economic fluctuations.     

Modeling returns to owner-occupied single-family residences

This paper expands previous models of the returns to owner-occupied single-family residences by modelling returns to a specific property of an individual homeowner instead of determining an average market return based on appraised values. Included in the model are transaction costs, degree of leverage, level of price appreciation, the implied rental cost in ownership, tax bracket, and duration of home ownership. Simulation results suggests that the level and timing of transaction costs are important to homeowners and rates of return to owner-occupied single-family residences increase to a point in time and thereafter decline.     

The Accuracy of Price-Earnings and Discounted Cash Flow Methods of IPO Equity Valuation

This paper compares estimates of value derived from conventional discounted cash flow and price earnings valuation methods to the market price. For a sample of 45 firms newly listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange our results suggest that the best discounted cash flow method and the best price earnings comparable have similar accuracy. The median absolute pricing error is around 20% and the models explain around 70% of the cross-sectional variation in market price scaled by book value. The results serve to corroborate the findings of Kaplan and Ruback (1995).     

制造商向消费者提供价格补偿的分析

主要对制造商向消费者提供价格补偿的成本进行估计,采用定量分析的方法,建立具体的数学模型,分析所建模型的合理性,以及分析各参数对成本的影响,分析这种价格补偿机制同单纯降价相比的优越性以及这种价格补偿机制在市场中起作用的内在原因。最后表述如何在实际中灵活地应用这些模型。     

International joint ventures: Theoretical considerations

This paper constructs models to investigate the rationale for a multinational corporation to enter into a joint venture to serve a host market. In particular, the model examines the impact of profit sharing, cost reductions, risk reductions, and competition reductions on the profits of international joint ventures. The results may explain the ‘recent’ popularity of international joint ventures. The models show that (1) a joint venture is the dominant entry strategy when there is a formidable local competitor and the risks of operation are high, (2) a wholly owned subsidiary is preferred if a multinational corporation has a significant cost advantage, (3) a joint venture is preferred to a wholly owned subsidiary if significant cost reductions can be achieved through combining the strengths of a multinational corporation and a local firm, and (4) multiple licensing is preferred if the number of local firms is large.     

The Recession of 1980 and its Causes*

During 1980 total output fell by 5% per cent and manufacturing output by 16 per cent. By May 1981 manufacturing output was 20 per cent below its 1979 peak level. in this Briefing Paper we use the London Business School model to explain the current recession. We conclude that the main identifiable came was the rise in the price of oil. but output was also affected by the increase in VAT and the reductions in public investment. Those cawes directly explain a reduction in output of about 3 per cent in 1980 compared with what might otherwise have happened. We suggest that additional links (not fully incorporated into the model) increased the impact of those shocks and led to the severe fall below potential output. The first part of the paper describes briefly the events of I979 and 1980. in the second part we ask how far the economic developments were predictable and in the third part we set out our explanations.     

Price gap anomaly in the US stock market: The whole story

This paper analyses the price gap anomaly in the US stock market (comprised of the DJI, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) covering the period 1928 to 2018. This paper aims to investigate whether or not price gaps create market inefficiencies. Price gaps occur when the current day’s opening price is different from the previous day’s closing price due orders placed before the opening of the market. Several hypotheses are tested using various statistical tests (Student’s t-test, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test), regression analysis, and special methods, that is, the modified cumulative returns and the trading simulation approaches. We find strong evidence in favour of abnormal price movements after price gaps. We observe that during a gap day prices tend to change in the direction of the gap. A trading strategy based on this anomaly was efficient in that its results were not random, indicating that this market was not efficient. The momentum effect was found to be temporary and no evidence of seasonality in price gaps was found. Lastly, our results were also contrary to the myth that price gaps tend to get filled.     

Biting the hand that fed it: Did the stock market boom of the late 1990s impede investment in manufacturing?

The stock market increase in the 1990s may have diverted funds from fixed investments in manufacturing to other investiments, such as share repurchases, and to firms with faster stock price gains. We find that overall investment remained lower than it could have been without the stock price appreciation. We also find that manufacturing investment was impeded by the developments in the stock market. Based on our results, the policy focus should be on offering incentives for corporate decision makers to prioritize productive investments over other uses of funds instead of means to entice lenders to increase lending to manufacturing firms.     

The cyclical nature of markups in Canadian manufacturing: A production theory approach

In this paper the effects of cost and demand characteristics on the magnitude and cyclical behaviour of markups in Canadian manufacturing are measured within a production theory framework. Price to marginal cost ratios for various manufacturing industries are computed, and the impact art their secular and cyclical trends from changes in capacity utilization, scale economies, variable input prices, import competition, unemployment and other exogenous market and technological determinants are explored using adjusted markup indexes and elasticities. The measured price margins seem weakly procyclical. Further, evaluation of the determinants of these cycles suggests that the procyclical nature of markups is primarily related to exogenous factors affecting costs such as energy price ‘shocks’, and that cost characteristics underlying scale economies provide a countercyclical influence that counteracts the profitability arising from markups.     

基于计量回归模型的我国医疗服务价格规制效果实证分析

当今中国老百姓"看病贵、看病难"的问题受到了社会各界广泛关注,其中医疗服务市场的核心因素——医疗服务价格直接决定了医疗费用高低和医疗服务利用程度。医疗服务价格规制政策不合理或国家对医疗服务规制不到位是造成目前我国医疗服务市场突出问题的重要原因。本文根据我国基本国情,采用最新的二手数据构建计量回归模型,并在多元回归分析中使用了Prais-Winsten AR(1)迭代法。通过实证的方法证明了医疗服务价格规制是影响医疗费用的重要因素,并得出价格规制出现了内部结构性扭曲的结论。     

ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION

Abstract In this paper, we review the existing empirical literature on price asymmetries in commodities, providing a way to classify and compare different studies that are highly heterogeneous in terms of econometric models, type of asymmetries and empirical findings. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First, it presents a detailed and updated survey of the existing empirical contributions on price asymmetries in the transmission mechanism linking input prices to output prices. Second, this paper presents an extension of the traditional distinction between long‐run and short‐run asymmetries to new categories of asymmetries, such as: contemporaneous impact, distributed lag effect, cumulated impact, reaction time, equilibrium and momentum equilibrium adjustment path, regime effect, regime equilibrium adjustment path. Each empirical study is then critically discussed in the light of this new classification of asymmetries. Third, this paper evaluates the relative merits of the most popular econometric models for price asymmetries, namely autoregressive distributed lags, partial adjustments, error correction models, regime switching and vector autoregressive models. Finally, we use the meta‐regression analysis to investigate whether the results of asymmetry tests are not model‐invariant and find which additional factors systematically influence the rejection of the null hypothesis of symmetric price adjustment. The main results of our survey can be summarized as follows: (i) each econometric model is specialized to capture a subset of asymmetries; (ii) each asymmetry is better investigated by a subset of econometric models; (iii) the general significance of the F test for asymmetric price transmission depends mainly on characteristics of the data, dynamic specification of the econometric model, and market characteristics. Overall, our empirical findings confirm that asymmetry, in all its forms, is very likely to occur in a wide range of markets and econometric models.