省联社向何处去

随着农村信用社改革的逐步深化,关于省联社改革的难点、改革模式的选择问题成为学界和业界争论的焦点.本文认为,农村信用社的政策性金融定位、省政府掌握省联社改革模式的最终决策权、农村信用社的特殊性、省联社为什么而存在、各利益主体对省联社改革模式的意见分歧将是影响未来省联社改革模式选择的重要因素.历史包袱的化解与困难联社的发展问题将是省联社改革模式设计中首要考虑的问题.未来省联社的职能将在管理与服务两种职能中选择,取消省联社模式的改革情形不大可能出现.各利益主体改革意见的分歧可能会使省联社的未来走向充满不确定性.     

探寻农村信用社省联社改革之路

省联社改革是当前农村信用社改革的重中之重。本文认为,各利益主体对理想的省联社发展模式认知不一致是省联社改革难以推动的本质原因。在实际改革过程中,没有行业管理是否意味着没有行业服务?在不具备管理权的前提下,省政府怎样控制风险?农村合作金融机构组织规模最佳层级在县域还是在地市级?管理权能否进一步下放给省级以下地方政府?这四大问题将是当前省联社改革必须回答的难题。基于此,本文认为未来省联社改革模式将有三种可能性,而强调机构之间整合和服务职能的金融控股或联合银行模式应是未来理想可行的选择。     

对农村信用社管理体制和产权改革的现实审视与政策建议

全国绝大部分省份在始于2003年新一轮农村信用社改革中均选择了省联社模式,但这一政企合一的管理模式存在所有者缺位、法人治理虚化和脱节等制度瑕疵,导致农村信用社面临"内部人控制"和"外部人十预"的双重风险.为此,建议对省联社模式分步推行二次改革予以矫正.     

省联社改革的可选模式与后续发展

导语:省联社改革是我国农村金融体系改革的重要命题。采取何种改革模式,既能保证省联社强化服务属性与去行政化相结合,又能坚持基层农信机构商业属性与支农属性并重,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文采用自下而上的视角,使用定量与定性相结合的方法,从微观诉求出发分析省联社改革的方向,对比分析多种改革模式,研判省联社对改革模式的现实选择。     

“省联社”模式：理论基础、制度缺陷与改革建议

"省联社"模式的制度缺陷"省联社"模式下行政力量的干预可能使农村信用社改革偏离中央设定的目标 中央在本次农村信用社改革的目标就是要把农村信用社改革成为服务"三农"的地方性金融机构.在省联社模式下,存在着严重的"外部人干预"现象.     

"省联社"模式:理论基础、制度缺陷与改革建议

任何一项制度的出台都具有其历史继承性和改革的渐进性,农村信用社“省联社”模式在全国绝大省份的确立必然有其“路径依赖”的元素,具有相当程度的合理性。但由于“省联社”模式产权虚置导致其存在“内部人控制”和“外部人干预”的双重风险,使得农村信用社改革的成败建立在省联社管理层的道德与自律的基础上,具有较大的不确定性。因此,对省联社模式的改革也就势在必行。本文对省联社作为改革目标以及作为改革对象的原因进行分析,并对其改革的总体思路做一初浅探讨。     

对农村信用社管理体制和产权改革的现实审视与政策建议

全国绝大部分省份在始于2003年新一轮农村信用社改革中均选择了省联社模式,但这一政企合一的管理模式存在所有者缺位、法人治理虚化和脱节等制度瑕疵,导致农村信用社面临"内部人控制"和"外部人干预"的双重风险。为此,建议对省联社模式分步推行二次改革予以矫正。     

论农村信用社"省联社"模式——理论依据、缺陷及实施建议

我国新一轮农村信用社改革选择"省联社"模式符合制度经济学的制度变迁理论、职能下属化理论和路径依赖理论,具有历史必然性."省联社"模式的缺陷主要表现在容易加重省级地方政府对农村信用社的干预,容易形成以"省联社"为核心的新的利益集团并阻碍农村信用社控制权向股东的回归.应加快劣质信用社退出市场的步伐,采取建立大量新型农村金融机构等措施为"省联社"模式的良性运行创造条件.     

农信社省级联社职能定位及改革模式考量

省级机构的改革是当前农信社改革中争论的焦点。各利益主体对理想的农信社省级联社改革模式认知的不一致,是省级联社改革难以推动的本质原因。在实际改革过程中,没有行业管理是否意味着行业服务的缺失?在不拥有管理权的前提下,省级政府如何管控风险?农信社法人机构组织规模最佳层级究竟在县域还是地市?农信社管理权能否进一步下放等四大问题,将是当前省级联社改革必须直面的。基于此,未来省级联社改革模式将取决于行业管理主体层级安排,联合银行或金融持股公司等将应是相对较可行的改革模式。     

现行省联社机制存在的问题及其改革路径

随着我国农村金融体系不断深化改革及现代金融企业治理加速推进,省联社的功能和角色定位需重新构建,改革势在必行。本文着重探讨了当前我国省联社机制存在的主要问题,具体表现在产权基础缺乏、法人治理欠缺、技术平台落后、监督管理冲突、风险化解职能消退以及偏离服务农村目标等方面。据此,本文对当前主要的改革模式进行分析,提出当前我国省联社改革的路径。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.