当前中国通胀类型及凯恩斯式政策分析

通货膨胀是经济社会常见的问题,国内外关于通货膨胀的研究很多,本文旨在综述现有主流通货膨胀类型的基础上,指出中国当前主要的通货膨胀类型和原因,中国当前的通货膨胀具有政策性、长期性、全面性,既有典型的货币超发原因,也有国际市场输入型通胀原因,这和中国的财政政策紧密相关。凯恩斯在上个世纪中前期提出的积极财政政策,即是这种政策模式。本文论述了哈耶克对凯恩斯的通货膨胀观的批判,以及对凯恩斯式通货膨胀的现实合理性进行了进一步的思考。     

通货膨胀理论的比较及启示

马克思运用劳动价值论对通货膨胀进行了微观视角的解读。凯恩斯从有效需求理论出发对通货膨胀展开了宏观层次的研究。哈耶克则重点分析了通货膨胀形成的过程及其对资本结构和生产结构的不良影响。比较三种通货膨胀理论,我们获得如下启示:区分货币币值变动的真正原因对研究通货膨胀及其治理措施非常重要;应当关注有效需求、通货膨胀与就业三个总体经济变量之间的互动关系;应当避免"法令性通货膨胀"的产生;通货膨胀的解决应当主要依靠结构的调整;应当关注通货膨胀可能导致的企业家丧失企业家精神、享乐主义盛行等隐性危害。     

中国语境中的哈耶克

在中国,哈耶克的影响显得十分吊诡。哈耶克对国内学界影响最大的,不是作为经济学家的哈耶克,而是身为自由思想家的哈耶克。中国的意识形态属性上,天然倾向于国家控制市场的凯恩斯主义,上个世纪八九十年代改革开放,市场经济勃兴,也是在国家的宏观调控之下,中国的那只看不见的手,从未真正放开过——哈耶克的自由市场理论在中国反而缺乏真正的市场。但幸好,哈耶克不是凯恩斯,他并不是那种单纯的经济学家,     

哈耶克反对社会主义的时代和理论背景分析

哈耶克是新自由主义的旗手,一生反对社会主义。学术界往往从哈耶克理论的本身去探讨其反对社会主义的原因,事实上哈耶克反对社会主义有其社会背景和知识根源,前者主要是苏德经济政治制度的弊端和凯恩斯主义失效后西方对新自由主义的重视,后者主要是哈耶克自身接触和掌握的心理学知识及自由主义政治经济理论。     

核心通货膨胀:理论模型与经验分析

现有的核心通货膨胀计算方法假设各种商品和服务的价格变化可以表示为核心通货膨胀与异质性相对价格变化之和,然而这种价格变化的分解方式既缺乏理论基础又违背经济直觉。本文将经典的新凯恩斯模型推广到多部门情形,证明了多部门新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,提出了各部门商品价格变化的理论分解公式。以这个分解公式为理论基础,本文提出了估计核心通货膨胀的计量经济模型及其两阶段估计方法,给出了根据稳态权重估计核心通货膨胀的简便方法,估计出了我国的核心通货膨胀。有效性检验表明,根据两阶段估计方法和基于稳态权重的估计方法得到的核心通货膨胀都是有效的核心通货膨胀度量。     

巅峰对决-《凯恩斯大战哈耶克》

网络上曾经流传过一部火爆的说唱纪录片，两名说唱歌手分别出演了主张政府调节市场的凯恩斯，以及主张自由市场的哈耶克，并以说唱的方法幽默地表现了他们之间的辩论。而这个视频的原著，就是由资深记者维普肖特撰写的《凯恩斯大战哈耶克》一书。自上世纪30年代起，凯恩斯和哈耶克两大经济学大师通过信件、公开发表的文章甚至是激烈的私下对话进行辩论，最终又通过他们热心的弟子加尔布雷思和弗里德曼代为辩论。可以说，这是一场具有豪华阵容的“巅峰对决”：以上4人中，3人为诺贝尔经济学奖得主。其中唯一没有获奖的是凯恩斯，因其于1964年去世，而诺贝尔经济学奖1968年才设立。但毫无疑问的是，凯恩斯在经济学上的成就无人能及，他创立的宏观经济学和弗洛伊德的“精神分析”、爱因斯坦的“相对论”被称为“20世纪知识界三大革命”。     

银华基金管理有限公司

正《经济向左还是向右》学术界有很多值得大家争议的问题,譬如,在哲学领域,两千多年来哲学家一直都在试图给哲学下一个明确的定义;在管理学领域,管理学家也在不断分析管理者与领导者的区别是什么;那么在经济学领域,这个永无结论的问题就是凯恩斯和哈耶克,古典经济学与凯恩斯主义,每一次经济危机发生时,凯恩斯和哈耶克的争论又会重现。由著名经济学家罗杰·E.A.法默撰写的《经济向左还是向右》,是一本关于经济学的普及读物,通过对古典经济学派和凯恩斯派之间的对比,简明扼要地介绍西方经济学思想史的主要人物和观点,阐述了一个全球共同关注的话题:经济如何运行。     

浅谈弗里德曼的现代货币主义

20世纪70年代现代货币主义作为一个很早就反对凯恩斯主义的学派而受到广泛的关注。它与凯恩斯主义在很多方面有很大分歧,而它的主要理论有通货膨胀理论,自然失业率理论等。当然它也提出了一系列的经济政策以来缓解当时的国际经济危机。     

扩大进口能否抑制我国的通货膨胀:理论和实证

本文首先对有关"扩大进口能否抑制通货膨胀"的若干理论机理进行分析,然后分别以CPI和GDP平减指数作为通货膨胀的代理变量,基于我国1994Q1-2011Q4的数据和一个修正的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型实证检验了扩大进口对通货膨胀的综合效应。结果表明,扩大进口确实会对我国的通货膨胀产生抑制作用,虽然这个抑制作用在数量上很小,在统计上却是显著的。论文根据有关研究结论提出了若干政策建议。     

菲利普斯曲线:理论与模型的动态演变与评论

菲利普斯曲线提供了把失业与通货膨胀关联起来的方程式,填补了凯恩斯理论中的通货膨胀缺口,成为凯恩斯宏观经济模型的重要组成部分。在预期方式的不同、价格调整的方法不同、货币经济等约束条件下,菲利普斯曲线产生了不同的模型形式,具体可以划分为传统的菲利普斯曲线、后顾菲利普斯曲线和新菲利普斯曲线三个阶段,并且每个阶段在不同的假设条件下又包含几种不同的曲线形式。这些形式是对原始的菲利普斯曲线模型的补充和发展,丰富了菲利普斯曲线模型,加强了模型对实际的解释能力和理论基础。同时需要注意的是,建立在西方经济假设条件下的菲利普斯曲线,在中国二元经济条件下的应用,则要做修正和补充。     

Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve

The canonical new Keynesian Phillips curve has become a standard component of models designed for monetary policy analysis. However, in the basic new Keynesian model, there is no unemployment, all variation in labor input occurs along the intensive hours margin, and the driving variable for inflation depends on workers’ marginal rates of substitution between leisure and consumption. In this paper, we incorporate a theory of unemployment into the new Keynesian theory of inflation and empirically test its implications for inflation dynamics. We show how a traditional Phillips curve linking inflation and unemployment can be derived and how the elasticity of inflation with respect to unemployment depends on structural characteristics of the labor market such as the matching technology that pairs vacancies with unemployed workers. We estimate on US data the Phillips curve generated by the model. While we can reject the baseline new Keynesian Phillips curve in favor of the search-frictions specification, we show it is still too stylized to fully describe the dynamics of firms’ marginal costs.     

Keynesian Dominance in Crisis Therapy

The 1930s’ debate about the short-run Keynesian response to crisis and Hayek's critique of its long-run consequences has significant contemporary parallels. This article examines, from a historical perspective, the Keynes–Hayek debate by considering the development of Keynesian economic theory, its ascension and application during financially sound times, the Hayekian critique, the monetary counter-revolution, and the Keynesian renaissance in the wake of the global financial crisis. It is shown that Keynesian fiscal measures prevail over the Hayekian approach in the midst of a crisis leading to rising inflation and public debt, depressed long-run growth and a new crisis.     

Welfare costs of shifting trend inflation

This paper studies the welfare consequences of exogenous variations in trend inflation in a New Keynesian economy. Consumption and leisure respond asymmetrically to a rise and a decline in trend inflation. As a result, an increase in the variance of shocks to the trend inflation process decreases welfare not only by increasing the volatilities of consumption and leisure, but also by decreasing their average levels. I find that the welfare cost of drifting trend inflation is modest and that it comes mainly from reduced average levels of consumption and leisure, not from their increased volatilities.     

The economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations

This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between “formation” of inflation expectations and “incorporation” of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to expectation formation keeps Phillips curve theory in the policy orbit of natural rate thinking where there is no welfare justification for higher inflation even if there is a permanent inflation–unemployment trade-off. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to incorporation of inflation expectations breaks that orbit and provides a welfare economics rationale for Keynesian activist policies that reduce unemployment at the cost of higher inflation.     

Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China

The New Keynesian Phillips curve implies that the output gap, the deviation of the actual output from its natural level due to nominal rigidities, drives the dynamics of inflation relative to expected inflation and lagged inflation. This paper exploits the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in explaining China's inflation dynamics with a new measure of the output gap. We estimate the output gap using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition method, based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among inflation, money, and real output in China. The empirical results using quarterly data spanning 1979–2010 show that the new measure of the output gap outperforms the traditional measures in fitting the New Keynesian Phillips curve. This result provides useful insights for inflation dynamics and monetary policy analysis in China.     

Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?

This paper discusses the implications of the validity of the conditioning hypothesis for the maintained money demand equation for an inflation tax analysis. We also test the validity of the quantity-theoretical inflation tax model for the post-1980 quarterly Turkish data by using Johansen cointegration techniques. The results suggest that the tax rate (inflation) is weakly exogenous for the parameters of the long-run money demand (tax base) equation. This result, consistent with a Keynesian endogenous seigniorage-exogenous inflation tax rate theory prior, does not support the hypothesis that the Turkish inflation can be explained by the conventional inflation tax revenue-maximizing motive alone.     

A graphical exposition of a more complete Keynesian system

This paper uses an expanded version of the widely cited Smith model to show the classical natural rate of interest and employment results as a special case of a more general Keynesian model. The model's equilibrium level of employment and real interest rate depend on the inflation rate. The classical results apply to changes in the price level while the Keynesian results apply to changes in the inflation rate. The model assumes inflation is anticipated in equilibrium. Violation of the classical results does not depend on market imperfections such as sticky prices or information costs.     

WELFARE COSTS OF SHIFTING TREND INFLATION: STAGGERED WAGE AND PRICE CONTRACTS

We develop a New Keynesian model featuring staggered price and wage contracts to study welfare costs of exogenous variations in trend inflation. The analyses show that the consequences of constant positive trend inflation and shifting trend inflation are severe, especially when trend inflation is high. Among two channels, staggered wage contracts play a vital role in transmitting adverse impacts of constant and shifting trend inflation into the economy. Without the staggered wage channel, these costs are modest. We also conduct exercises to examine the sensitivity of welfare costs to a wide range of plausible parameters. The results show that if the price and wage friction are sufficiently large, the price and wage indexation level are sufficiently small, or there is upward biased trend inflation process, the welfare costs become larger.     

What drives inflation in New Keynesian models?

This paper estimates variants of a small-scale New Keynesian model using observations on inflation, inflation expectations and nominal interest rates. We ask whether those variables alone can tell us something about the time series properties of real marginal costs.