论东亚货币金融合作的思路

东亚货币合作在近年来有了加速发展的趋势，但是现代的货币一体化理论无法解释东亚的这一发展趋势，使得东亚货币合作在理论上难以突破，同时，东亚的现实状况也阻碍了东亚的地区合作，而欧洲的制度创新给了东亚地区以启示。东亚必须打破对国际货币金融体制的路径依赖，寻求自己的发展思路和现实道路，积极推进东亚的货币金融合作。     

东亚金融危机期间跨国公司的进入模式——兼论跨国并购对东亚国家经济恢复和发展的影响

东亚金融危机是布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来一次危及全球经济的金融危机。由于这次危机是在全球金融市场扩张和全球经济一体化程度加深的背景下发生的,因此危机的爆发对世界各国经济造成了严重影响。在危机期间,受危机影响的东亚国家的经济环境发生了重大变化。变化最显著的因素是东道国有关外国直接投资的政策框架以及东道国的经济因素,其中特别是影响国内市场需求的宏观经济环境。这些因素的变动显著影响了外国直接投资的进入模式以及跨国公司在该地区经营活动和战略。本文研究东亚危机后跨国公司在东亚进入模式的转变－跨国并购的发展,并研究跨国并购对东来各国短期经济恢复和长期经济发展的影响,针对关于跨国并购的一些热点问题进行了客观的分析。     

日本与东亚地区经济关系的新变化

日本与东亚地区经济关系的新变化南开大学国际商学院陈岩，万谊青进入９０年代，日本和东亚地区的经济关系发生了新的变化。对此，本文拟从日本和东亚地区的分工、投资、贸易三个方面来进行初步的探讨。日本与东亚分工的新变化日本与东亚地区的分工以前是雁行形态的垂直分...     

战后日本经济发展模式评析

东亚经济发展进程是一个有机整体,是各国(地区)经济发展运动的内在迭加形成了东亚地区现代化发展的总绩效和总趋势。因此,东亚经济发展模式既是一个加速东亚地区经济增长的内在整体,也囊括了各国(地区)经济增长的若干范示。日本经济是东亚经济发展的引擎,其成功的发展模式颇具典型意义,对我国经济加速发展具有重要的启迪。     

银行跨国并购影响因素研究——基于亚洲国家数据的分析

有关的实证研究显示，影响银行跨国并购的因素是复杂多样的。本文借助计量经济模型，以亚洲11个国家和地区为研究样本，通过四组变量假设，分析了上世纪90年代亚洲金融危机以来在该地区发生的银行跨国并购活动。研究表明，传统的“引力模型”对亚洲范围内银行跨国并购的解释力有限，银行跨国并购活动是多因素作用的结果。     

试论中国企业的跨国并购

本文认为，面对企业国际化经营趋势，现阶段我国企业跨国并购实施战略的重点是确立和优化跨国并购的战略选择，并有针对性地对目前存在的问题提出相应的对策     

亚太地区经济的发展及其问题

从六十年代开始至今,东亚各个国家与地区都先后呈现出持续高速的经济增长。亚太地区之所以突然引人注目,归根结底,其核心正在于东亚地区的上述趋势。因此,本文所探讨的亚太经济,主要以东亚经济为重点。     

东亚认同感的胎动——从文化的视角

东亚地区已经开始形成地区认同。东亚地区合作的增强 ,促进了地区认同。东亚地区认同具有自己的特点。东亚认同的发展具有很大的意义 ,能进一步促进经济合作和安全合作 ,增强东亚人民的信心 ,提高东亚在国际舞台上的地位。然而 ,东亚认同还处在萌芽状态 ,仍然受到地区整合不足、宗教极端主义上升、民族主义的负面作用等因素的影响。从长远看 ,东亚认同必须思考文化多样性与文化统一性的结合。     

东亚金融一体化与消费风险分担的实证研究

本文运用相关性分析和面板数据模型,研究东亚金融一体化进程中国际消费风险分担的水平、动态演进及影响因素,得出金融一体化并未有效推动东亚的国际消费风险分担,其原因与东亚地区金融一体化及贸易开放度较低、金融发展较为滞后、消费平滑的交易成本较高有关。应从发展区域资本市场和借贷市场、完善跨国财政转移支付、提高商品和要素的跨国流动性等方面,完善东亚的国际消费风险分担机制。     

跨国并购的趋势与中国的对策

90年代后期以来跨国并购出现高潮,并成为世界对外直接投资的主要形式.跨国并购高潮的出现是受利益驱动的,中国将不可避免地被卷入这种浪潮中.本文通过对跨国并购的国际趋势以及跨国并购在中国的发展的理论分析,从经济政策、法律环境和经济手段等角度提出了几个中国应采取的对策.     

A Review of Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions in APEC

In parallel with global trends, cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have increased dramatically in the APEC economies especially since the mid 1990s. The rapid increase in cross-border M&As in the world in general and in the APEC economies in particular is driven by a combination of factors, including the liberalisation of trade and investment regimes, the deregulation of the services sector, the privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and the relaxation of controls over cross-border M&As. The role of APEC developing economies in cross-border M&As has been increasing, especially since the late 1990s.     

Can East Asia rise again?

In recent times, the economies of East Asia have been confronted by two major economic recessions, the first caused by the East Asian financial crisis, and the second by the slump in the ‘new economy.’ The causes of these two recessions, their scope and their influences differ significantly and during these periods of economic downturn the economies affected have adopted various monetary policies aimed at reducing interest rates and tax rates, and pursuing the expansion of government expenditure. However, these policies have obviously not yet been as effective as expected.This paper sets out to determine those factors affecting the possibility of East Asia rising again from the recent economic slump, a slump which has stemmed from excessive investment in the electronics and information industries. The paper begins with an overview of the East Asian economy, with particular reference to the recent serious decline following the steady recovery from the East Asian financial crisis and a review of the measures taken to counter it. Proposals are then made with regard to a number of lessons to be learned from the recent slump.There are three major issues involved in the question of whether East Asia can rise again from the current economic slump. First of all, many of the economies of East Asia have tried their utmost to upgrade their industrial structures from labor- to technology-intensive, or towards a knowledge-based economy and, to some extent, have actually been quite successful in achieving their goals. Secondly, almost all of the East Asian economies have paid particular attention to educational development, with many families having sent their children to foreign countries to receive advanced education in the hope that when they return they can make a substantial contribution to the progress of their home economies—examples of this trend are provided by Taiwan and India. Thirdly, there are abundant natural resources in East Asia along with rich sources of manpower with a hard-working spirit; these two factors can create comparative advantages and strengthen the competitiveness of these economies.In view of the recent developments towards regionalism, it is imperative for the economies of East Asia to form an East Asian Community in the near future, and many of the economies in this region are currently endeavoring to realize this vision, despite many obstacles still facing East Asia which will ultimately need to be overcome.     

Food Price Policy in East Asia

The primary objective of this survey is to examine the extent to which the available empirical literature suggests that economies of East Asia are following the policy trend of earlier industrialising economies in gradually changing from taxing to assisting food producers in the course of their economic development. More specifically, the survey attempts (a) to summarise the trends in agricultural incentives in East Asia; (b) to examine briefly the literature on motivations for those policy trends; and (c) to mention some of the future trade and policy implications.     

Tariff cost and cross-border M&A affiliate sales: Evidence from China

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is a major form of foreign direct investment (FDI). In contrast to many developed countries, the majority of China’s cross-border M&As are vertical rather than horizontal. I study the difference in the reaction to tariff of horizontal and vertical M&A subsidiary sales. The baseline OLS regressions show that as export tariff cost increases, cross-border M&A affiliate sales relative to export rises, and the effect mainly comes from vertical affiliates, especially in downstream subsidiaries. The main results are robust to the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regressions and an instrumental variable (IV) approach. A simple model is developed to reconcile the empirical findings when horizontal and vertical M&As co-exist in the same market and further tested at both the extensive and intensive margins. The results offer new insights to understanding the performance of M&As from developing economies.     

Initial Conditions and Miraculous Growth: Why is South East Asia Different From Taiwan and South Korea?

The paper argues that the economies of East and South East Asia are a very diverse group, only some of which have grown rapidly over the past three decades. The fast-growing economies of South East Asia, especially Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia are in a number of important respects different from the fast-growing economies of North East Asia, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The different colonial legacies have had important consequences for educational progress and the distribution of income and wealth. Government intervention has tended to be less growth-promoting and more oriented to goals such as inter-ethnic redistribution of wealth. The implications of these differences for future economic growth in South East Asia are discussed.     

跨国并购和国内并购对企业市场价值的影响及差异:来自中国企业的证据

文章利用2004~2015年BVD(Zephyr)的并购事件研究了中国企业跨国并购和国内并购对企业市场价值影响的差异。事件研究得到以下结论:第一,在公告日窗口两类并购都获得了非负异常收益率,且国内并购的异常收益率不低于跨国并购。第二,分跨国并购目标国来看,如果并购发达国家企业,则获得了非负异常收益率,且两类并购对企业市场价值的影响无显著差异;如果并购发展中国家企业,则没有显著异常收益率,且不高于国内并购。第三,从细分行业来看,高新技术行业的跨国并购没有获得显著异常收益率,且不高于国内并购;无论是传统制造业还是非制造业,国内并购都获得了非负异常收益率,且不低于跨国并购。在此基础上文章利用倾向得分匹配法和倍差法检验了跨国并购与国内并购对企业异常收益率影响的差异,研究发现国内并购创造的市场价值明显高于跨国并购。因此,市场对中国企业的国内并购做出了更加积极的评价。     

Output volatility of five crisis-affected East Asia economies

A decade has passed since the Asian financial crisis (AFC) in 1997, and attention is drawn to the output performance of the crisis-affected economies in East Asia. Using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, this paper examines the growth volatility of GDP, its components and the stock market of five East Asia economies of Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Empirical evidences based on quarterly data show that output volatility for both Singapore and South Korea has increased after the AFC. For the GDP components, trade is a major factor in lowering GDP volatility in Chinese Taipei. The Hong Kong SAR economy has experienced an increase/decrease in the volatility of investment/private consumption. Among the five East Asia economies, government intervention is obvious in Singapore. The stock markets in both Hong Kong SAR and Chinese Taipei showed stronger ability in absorbing shocks.     

Impact of the US Economic Crisis on East Asian Economies： Production Networks and Triangular Trade through Chinese Mainland

This paper investigates the impact of the 2008 economic crisis on industries in East Asia. It attempts to identify the transmission mechanism and the magnitude of the impact of the crisis on industries in East Asia using the updated Asian international input–output table for 2008. The analyses reveal that the crisis significantly affected industrial output of the nine East Asian economies included in the present study. The economies that are deeply involved in production networks were affected most seriously. Our analyses also show that the impact was transmitted to East Asian industries through triangular trade, in which Chinese mainland imports parts and components from neighboring East Asian economies and then exports final products to the US and EU markets. Although such intricate production networks have improved the competitiveness of East Asian economies, they have also increased vulnerability to external shocks.     

Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks

This paper examines which emerging market regions form optimum currency areas (OCAs) by assessing the symmetry of macroeconomic shocks. We extend the output-prices-VAR framework by adding net exports and the real effective exchange rate as endogenous variables. Based on theoretical considerations, we derive which shocks affect these variables in the long run: shocks to labor productivity, foreign trade, labor supply, and money supply. The considered economies of Central and Eastern Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, East and Southeast Asia, and South Asia, exhibit large enough shock symmetry to form a currency union; the economies of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East do not.     

中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力分析——基于BOP和FATS统计的分析

本文选择了中国等18个经济体,对跨境交付和商业存在两种模式下中国金融服务贸易的国际竞争力进行了比较分析,主要结论是:1.关于跨境交付的金融服务贸易,中国的竞争力非常差,处于18个经济体的最后一名;2.关于商业存在模式下的金融服务贸易,不论是与东亚经济体相比,还是与"金砖四国"的其他成员相比,中国的金融业都具备了较强的竞争力,但与发达经济体相比,还存在不小差距。最后,根据实证分析的结论,提出了提升中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力的对策。