The unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank: Effectiveness and transmission analysis

Since the beginning of the financial crisis in summer 2007, the European Central Bank (ECB) has redirected traditional monetary policy, based on interest rates, to an unconventional monetary policy focused on the quantitative expansion of its balance sheet. In this context, the present paper aims to assess the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy instruments with regard to inflation and economic growth. To this end, the methodology is based on the estimation of a structural vector autoregressive model for the period 2007:Q1–2018:Q4, using four variables: EONIA, the total amount of assets on the ECB's balance sheet, the Eurozone inflation rate and the Eurozone economic growth rate. The results show a slight impact of the different balance sheet policies on inflation and economic activity behaviour, especially during the last year of the financial crisis. The robustness of these results is supported by the estimation of the same model replacing EONIA rates with shadow rates. Therefore, the results support the existence of monetary transmission for the period during which the unconventional monetary policy was developed as well as the effectiveness of the monetary policy adopted by the ECB in its commitment to price stability.     

ECB monetary policy during the “Weak Euro” period of 1999/2001

The European Central Bank has often been accused of lacking transparency in the conduct of its monetary policy. This article analyses the theoretical strategy of the ECB and compares it with the policy actually pursued. Conclusions are drawn and recommendations made for future policy.     

How much inevitable US-Euro Area interdependence is there in monetary policy?

Against the backdrop of the present international financial and economic crisis this article looks into the issue of the interdependence of US monetary policy and monetary policy in the euro area. Is there a significant interdependence? If so, what is the nature and intensity of this interdependence? Has the ECB been infl uenced by the Fed or vice versa and to what degree? Has the relationship changed in recent years, and if so, in what direction?     

EZB-Krisenpolitik: OMT-Programm, Vollzuteilungspolitik und Lender of Last Resort

This paper applies the economic argumentation put forth by the OMT’s opponents before the German Federal Constitutional Court [Bundesverfassungsgericht] to the full allotment policy practiced by the ECB since October 2008. The comparison shows that under this line of reasoning, the full allotment policy also contravenes the ECB’s mandate. Ultimately, therefore, the ECB is not in court because of monetary financing, but rather in its role as a lender of last resort. Accordingly, a court decision against the OMT would endorse an economic argumentation which contradicts 150 years of modern central bank history.     

US–Euro Area Monetary Policy Interdependence: New Evidence from Taylor Rule‐based VECMs

(1227) Ansgar Belke and Yuhua Cui This paper analyses the monetary policy interdependence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the period 1999–2006. Two models are specified: a partial vector error correction model (VECM) and a general VECM. In the partial VECM, we look for a long‐run interdependent relationship between the interest rates of the two currency areas and specify the Taylor Rule terms as exogenous variables. In the general VECM, we regard all variables as endogenous, and look for long‐run equilibrium relationships among them, which may reveal monetary policy interdependence between the two central banks. Weak exogeneity is checked in both models in order to establish a possible leader–follower relationship. The empirical results of both models indicate interdependence between the ECB and the Fed, but only the general VECM testifies a leader–follower pattern between the two central banks. According to this pattern, the ECB does follow the Fed.     

ECB: Quo Vadis?

The European Central Bank has implemented a very ambitious monetary policy since the financial crisis of 2008, intervening heavily in the eurozone economies. This policy has generated substantial risks to both the ECB’s primary task and its independence. It is therefore time for a fundamental evaluation of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.     

EZB: Mehr Transparenz wagen

The ECB is a central bank with a high level of transparency. However, it still does not publish voting records or minutes, and it publishes infl ation forecasts only on a quarterly basis. This paper argues that both the credibility and effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy could be enhanced by enlarging its transparency. This is especially necessary if the central bank takes such far-reaching decisions as the unlimited bond buying programme. Then the public has a right to know how and why this decision was taken.     

The ECB During the Financial Crisis. Not so Unconventional!

The European Central Bank's balance sheet has expanded notably, without banks granting more credit, and the overnight interest rate has stayed close to the deposit facility level for long periods of time since the onset of the financial crisis. This appears to go against the logic implicit in the post‐Keynesian Horizontalist approach to monetary macroeconomics, which links reserves to credit and holds that a central bank accommodates the demand for reserves in order to control the overnight interest rate. In this article, we analyze the monetary policy implemented by the ECB since the third quarter of 2008, with a view to studying its implications for monetary theory, concluding that this approach can still explain much of what has happened in the Euro Zone in the last troubled years, despite paradoxically, there being excess reserves and simultaneously accepting that reserves are demand led, and that the ECB has lent them at the official rate while the overnight interest rate has been close to the deposit facility rate. Further, this analysis reveals that mainstream monetary theory has not been very useful, because neither the link between reserves and loans nor the relation between reserves and inflation have worked. This leads us to believe that some transmission channels of the monetary policy implemented by the ECB since late 2014, which can be deemed unconventional, will not perform well.     

Zur Problematik einer politisierten Europäischen Zentralbank

In September 2012, in order to save the euro, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced unlimited purchases of crisis-country bonds if necessary (Outright Monetary Transactions). This was a significant change in monetary policy, leading to a controversial integration with fiscal policy and endangering the ECB’s independence as well as the preservation of price stability as its primary target. To restore the strict distinction between monetary and fiscal policy and to avoid monetary deficit financing, the author proposes to forbid purchases of government bonds not only on primary but also on secondary financial markets.     

Bundesverfassungsgericht und Krisenpolitik der EZB — Stellungnahmen der Ökonomen

In June 2013, the Federal Constitutional Court in Germany held an expert hearing on the suitability of ECB measures, such as the purchase of government bonds, and their compatibility with existing EU and German legislation. The statements of five invited experts are documented here. The authors comment on the path from the agreement that has laid down the basic rules for the euro area to a crisis-driven approach that seems to have forgotten these rules. The ECB policy holds many risks - above all that of financing public budgets almost without limits - for the stability of monetary and fiscal governance in the euro area. On the other hand, ECB measures can also be interpreted as a necessary means to comply with the ultimate task of the ECB, the defence of price stability. Hence the ECB’s crisis measures do not represent any intention to intervene in fiscal or economic policy measures, and after the crisis the ECB can return to a narrower interpretation of the role of a central bank. It should not be forgotten that the ECB measures bear high risks for the countries in trouble as well as for those countries supporting them.     

Dauerkritik an der Europäischen zentralbank

The ECB’s decision in favour of additional unconventional monetary policy measures has been severely criticised by German economists, experts and the media. This is consistent with the relentless criticism that the ECB has been subject to over recent years, even though the facts clearly show that the ECB has been living up to its mandate. The prevalence refl ects adherence to a monetary theory that is wrongly applied. The collateral damage of this misapplication is huge as the permanent and unjustifi ed criticism undermines confi dence in the ECB and hence a key element of European integration.     

Transparenz und Forward Guidance: Stimulierung der Volkswirtschaft in der Eurozone?

The author delivers details on whether and how the effectiveness of the ECB’s policies can be improved through more transparency and “forward guidance”. Is publishing the minutes of Council meetings really a good idea? How should we assess the publication of the details of who has voted (and in what way) in the meetings? Is the ECB plagued by deficiencies in transparency, with an eye on the bank’s steadily growing responsibilities? Should the ECB stick to the instrument of “forward guidance” even beyond the crisis period? How predictable and assessable can and must monetary policy be? Can central banks endowed with too much guidance become a source of volatility? The ECB will adopt banking surveillance in the euro area: do particular transparency and accountability obligations result from this? And if yes, how can they be fulfilled? Finally, the author assesses the limits of the transparency and communication of central banks.     

Wie soll die EZB aus ihrer unkonventionellen Geldpolitik aussteigen?

As economic conditions improve in the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) has to decide how to sequence the normalisation of monetary policy. Phasing out asset purchases first would mainly increase long-term rates and help to mitigate some of the most negative side effects of the extremely expansionary monetary policy, such as misallocations in asset markets. In contrast, starting with an increase of the rate on the deposit facility would reduce the implicit tax on banks’ liquidity holdings at the ECB, which could improve financial stability. Forward guidance and clear communication from the ECB are crucial to safeguarding a smooth transition back to a more conventional monetary policy.     

The case of the ECB: Better to lean against the wind than to fight a hurricane

In the light of the recent financial crisis, the ECB has announced a slight shift in the reading of its monetary policy strategy and acknowledges that the case for a “leaning against the wind” strategy has strengthened. This implies that now, more than ever, the ECB is willing to dampen asset bubbles in the early stage of their formation. This article explains what the ECB can learn from historical asset bubbles in EU eurozone member countries. The empirical analysis indicates that asset bubbles in some member countries are mostly followed by asset bubbles in further member countries, which supports the ECB’s current reading of its monetary policy strategy.     

Niedrige Zinsen — gesamtwirtschaftliche Ursachen und Folgen

Due to the financial crises from 2008 to 2012, unconventional monetary policy caused an environment of record low interest rates around the world. Maintaining the low interest rate policy might be reasonable for the ECB in the short run in order to fight the fragmentation of the financial market and the risk of defl ation in the Eurozone. Some authors argue that permanently low interest rates lead to wrong incentives in the financial market for debtors and creditors alike. They fear potential risks for fiscal policy and financial stability in Germany and recommend macroprudential measures beyond the Basel III framework and a beginning exit of the ECB from its unconventional monetary policy. Others warn against overburdening monetary policy. They find rather that effective financial market regulation and proper fiscal rules and institutions are required to secure financial market stability and the sustainability of public debt and that a premature exit from accommodating monetary policies would do more harm than good. They argue that monetary policy alone will not solve Europe’s problems. The differing recommendations are mainly based on differing assessments of the European business cycle.     

Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework

China's monetary policy framework has evolved considerably in the past two decades, increasingly moving from using quantity-based instruments and targets to using price-based instruments and targets. This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in China by examining the influence of monetary policy on market interest rates using an event-study approach. We find that the effectiveness of price-based instruments in impacting market interest rates increases over time, and that price-based instruments are as effective as quantity instruments during the period since the completion of interest rates liberalization. Furthermore, central bank communications, an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy, affect medium- and long-term market interest rates. Our findings are robust to the use of an alternative measure of monetary policy surprise and an alternative estimation method.     

The ECB’s New Monetary Policy Strategy

The ECB updated its monetary policy strategy for the first time in 18 years in July 2021. Therein, the ECB announced that it is willing to accept a transitory period of moderate inflation overshoot in its efforts to push inflation upwards after a long period of undershooting its target. This study explores whether such an overshoot can be economically justified employing a simple Phillips curve model. The results point to the conclusion that the average inflation rate over the business cycle consolidated about one percentage point below the ECB’s target rate. A temporary asymmetry of the ECB’s monetary strategy seems therefore justified to realign inflation and inflation expectations with the target rate.

     

Überschreitet die EZB mit ihren Staatsanleihekäufen ihr Mandat?

The ECB’s government bond purchases have become an issue for the German constitutional court. The authors see the OMT programme as falling within the bounds of its mandate but call for the ECB’s crisis policies to be strictly temporary. They argue that the OMT programme was necessary to safeguard fi nancial stability and that it does not endanger price stability in the short term. Moreover, they present evidence for the breakdown of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the crisis countries and argue that the conditions for forbidden monetary government fi nancing are not met — provided the ECB sticks to certain conditions. Particularly, the ECB’s government bond purchases must maintain a clear distinction between the primary market and a functioning secondary market.     

Inflation und Schuldenabbau

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently announced its willingness to do whatever is needed to save the euro. This has raised the question whether such a role of the ECB must lead to higher rates of infl ation. Under current recessive macroeconomic conditions in the eurozone, the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy will not lead to higher infl ation. On the contrary, there is a serious danger of defl ation. Higher infl ation would likely occur only if a permanent stabilisation function were assigned to the ECB. Yet historical examples show that mistakes can be made. During the stagnation in Japan, US economists heavily criticised the Bank of Japan’s timid monetary policy response. But in some sense, current Fed policy seems to be a direct copy of that strategy, caused by uncertainty about the proper communication channel. An infl ation tax could help to bring down the mounting public debt in the wake of the fi nancial crisis, but higher wealth taxes have more transparent distributional effects.     

An Interest Stabilisation Mechanism to Unburden the ECB

Intereconomics - Following the twin crises of sovereign debt and COVID-19, the ECB risks being stuck in a situation of fiscal dominance, in which monetary policy is subordinated to the needs of...