Do the EU countries import at the same price? The case of coffee

The establishment of the Economic and Monetary Union was expected to determine price convergence in the market of the European Union, leading to the equilibrium theorized by the law of one price. This article investigates prices convergence in the coffee market among European importers. Coffee is not only a tradable and traded good, but also one of the most valuable traded commodities. We account for different qualities of coffee in a hedonic regression model, which isolate and remove the effects of factors that might affect price dispersion. Adjusted import prices result to be significantly different between European Member States, and do not support the hypothesis of a deepening European market integration.     

El Niño,La Niña,and world coffee price dynamics

Coffee is produced in equatorial and subequatorial regions of the world, which are also most affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.     

Testing vertical price transmission for Vietnam's Robusta coffee

Vietnam has undergone market reforms over the last three decades; and as a consequence, the coffee sector has become increasingly market‐driven. The success of the government's liberalisation policies in terms of market efficiency is investigated by examining the transmission of both positive and negative price changes for Robusta coffee between export and farmgate prices. We used a threshold vector error correction model and high‐frequency daily data. The primary result here is that of a symmetric price transmission between export and farm‐level prices. This result holds when tested with weekly price data, derived from the daily data. Farmgate prices respond faster to decreases than increases in export prices when the long‐run deviation exceeds a certain threshold. These price changes are transmitted within several days. This research also confirms the importance of transaction costs, and other price frictions mostly ignored in prior analyses for coffee.     

Co-integration and error-correction modelling of agricultural export supply in Cameroon

Estimates of factors influencing Cameroon^,s exports of cocoa, coffee and cotton are derived in a system of equations using the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration and error-correction representation procedures. Two co-integrating vectors involving cocoa and coffee exports as endogenous variables are identified in the system while tests for exogeneily of cotton exports are consistent with the independence of cotton from the other two commodities. These findings are corroborated by estimates of a restricted error-correction model which lead to acceptance of the hypothesis that cocoa and coffee exports are-indeed determined endogenously to the system and not linked to cotton exports. Statistical significance of the error-correction terms for cocoa and coffee validates the existence of an equilibrium relationship among the variables in each of these co-integrating vectors. The combined short run dynamic effect of lagged quantities of cocoa and coffee, export/domestic price ratio and GDP jointly explain changes in exports of cocoa whereas lagged quantities exported do not seem to have a significant short-run dynamic effect on changes in coffee exports.     

The economics of quality in the specialty coffee industry: insights from the Cup of Excellence auction programs

This study estimates price determinants for specialty green coffee auctions using records from the 2004–2010 Cup of Excellence programs hosted by the Alliance for Coffee Excellence. While some literature on coffee has focused on certifications and sustainability labels, the discussion of price determinants has been limited. This article replicates one of the first publications on price determinants and formulates a new model to more accurately describe the market. We include the necessary additional variables and estimate the model using a truncated maximum likelihood estimation technique. While sensory quality has a strong effect on price, the highest premiums stem from obtaining a top rank compared to other coffees from the same country, and North American buyers are more responsive to sensory quality than buyers in Asian and European markets.     

World market integration for export and food crops in developing countries: a case study for Mali and Nicaragua

Using a generalized error correction model, this article measures and compares market integration for export cash crops versus imported food crops for Mali and Nicaragua, and computes transmission elasticities between changes in the goods’ border and domestic prices. Both Mali and Nicaragua obtain the bulk of their export revenue from a particular agricultural commodity—cotton for Mali and coffee for Nicaragua—and both import the same key staple food of rice. To reap the economic gains from this trade specialization, the two countries’ agriculture must be well‐integrated into world markets. The two countries present an important policy contrast that affects their degree of world market integration and price transmission. In Mali, a parastatal enterprise controls its cotton industry, while Nicaragua has less state direction over agriculture. Reflecting this difference, the results show that for both its main export and import commodity, Nicaragua is more integrated into world markets and has higher price transmission than Mali. The results for Nicaragua also show much higher integration and price transmission for its main agricultural export (coffee) than its major import (rice).     

Market-Based Price-Risk Management: Welfare Gains for Coffee Producers from Efficient Allocation of Resources

The volatility of coffee prices exposes coffee producers to price risk. Price risk is one of many risks faced by commodity producers in developing countries. Coffee is widely traded in the international commodity derivative markets. This offers scope for coffee producers to manage their price risk by hedging on these markets. The hedging mechanism recommended is based on the use of coffee futures and options. The mechanism involves costs, so the benefits of hedging need to be evaluated in order to assess its usefulness for producers. It emerges that the main benefit lies in producers being able to allocate resources more efficiently in the production of coffee. An analysis of theoretical and field evidence shows that this benefit can potentially be quite high, especially for risk-averse producers. This underlines the need to provide producers with access to suitable price-risk hedging mechanisms.     

A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam

Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world's second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this article examines Vietnamese coffee growers' investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continue producing coffee even at relatively depressed price levels.     

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: ESTIMATES OF INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand and supply of agricultural exports from developing countries, on the basis of (a) a consistent and fully specified supply and demand model, and (b) statistical estimation procedures not frequently used in the estimation of agricultural export functions. Estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for aggregate agricultural exports for all developing countries taken together — as distinct from individual exporting countries — are found to be low; moreover, export price as distinguished from non-price factors plays a relatively insignificant role in increasing export supply. Hence, an attempt by all developing countries to expand traditional agricultural exports with low price elasticity of demand may not yield rising earnings for all; but in fact may result in falling export revenues. Insofar as individual exports of all developing countries (not individual countries) are concerned, income and price elasticities of demand for such tropical commodities as tea, coffee, cocoa and bananas are also found to be low, except for new, non-traditional exports like pineapples. This indicates the importance of diversification of agricultural exports as a vehicle for their future growth.     

Pseudo panel data estimation technique and rational addiction model: an analysis of cigarette,alcohol and coffee demands

We use a pseudo‐panel data approach to analyze the relationship between the consumptions of cigarettes, alcohol, and coffee in a rational addiction framework. We find that while cigarette and coffee demands fit well with the rational addiction model, alcohol demand conforms to a model with inventory effects. The results suggest that alcohol consumption increases the marginal utility derived from consumption of cigarettes. Increasing alcohol prices would decrease not only the consumption of alcohol, but also the consumption of cigarettes. On the other hand, increasing cigarette prices do not have the same effect on consumption of alcohol. The cross‐price elasticity of coffee with respect to cigarette price is positive and significant which suggests that coffee substitutes for cigarettes when cigarette prices increase. The cross‐price elasticity of alcohol with respect to coffee price is found to be negative and significant. On the other hand, Morishima elasticities of substitution indicate that cigarette, alcohol and coffee substitute each other along the indifference curve when relative prices change.     

基于三元边际分析的中国柑橘出口增长研究

目的 柑橘产业是中国乡村产业振兴的重要组成部分,近年柑橘出口开始面临不利的贸易形势,系统分析中国柑橘出口增长特征及规律具有重要意义。方法 文章采用三元边际分析方法,基于2002—2017年中国柑橘出口近60个市场的数据,将出口增长因素分解为市场扩展效应、出口数量效应、出口价格效应,然后对出口增长特征进行研究。结果 研究发现,出口价格效应、出口数量效应是驱动中国柑橘出口增长的主要因素,而市场扩展效应不明显;比较而言,出口价格效应相对稳定,而出口数量效应波动较大;不同时间段首要驱动因素不同,2002—2009年出口数量效应是首要驱动因素,而2010—2017年出口价格效是首要驱动因素;中国柑橘出口价格持续上升并且已经高于全球出口平均价格,导致出口数量出现下降态势,出口额增长停滞。结论 深耕已有出口市场,积极开拓发达国家市场;丰富产品出口结构,弥补和降低出口价格上涨劣势。     

Trade,value chains,and rent distribution with foreign exchange controls: Coffee exports in Ethiopia

Exchange rate policies can have important implications on incentives for export agriculture. However, their effects are often not well understood. We study the issue of foreign exchange controls and pricing in the value chain for Ethiopia's coffee—its most important export crop. Relying on unique pricing and cost data, we find that coffee exporters are willing to incur losses during exporting by offering high prices for coffee locally in order to access scarce foreign exchange. We further find that the consequent high wholesale prices for coffee are transmitted to producers, so that coffee farmers are unintended beneficiaries of this rent.     

Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon that affects weather around the world. Past ENSO episodes have had severe impacts on the economy of Colombia. We study the influence of ENSO on Colombian coffee production, exports, and price. Our structural econometric specification is consistent with an economic model of the market for Colombian coffee which, in the short run, is characterized by a downward‐sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve. We show that El Niño (i.e., positive shocks to ENSO) is beneficial for Colombian production and exports and decreases the real price of Colombian coffee. On the contrary, La Niña (i.e., negative shocks to ENSO) depresses Colombian coffee production and exports and increases price. However, the overall impact of ENSO shocks is small. Both in the short run and in the long run, shocks to international demand for Colombian coffee are more relevant than supply‐side shocks in Colombia in explaining the dynamics of the price of Colombian coffee. Our results suggest that a given coffee price shock can have beneficial, detrimental, or negligible effects on the Colombian economy, depending on its underlying cause. As a consequence, policy responses to coffee price shocks should be designed by looking at the causes of the shocks.     

The impact of coffee price changes on rural households in Uganda

Employing household survey data covering the periods 1992–1993, 1995–1996, and 1999–2000, this article shows for the case of Uganda that a coffee market liberalization followed by a price boom was associated with substantial reductions in poverty, which could even be sustained when prices went down again. Coffee is not planted by the richest farmers and the gains from higher coffee prices accrued to poorer and richer coffee farmers alike. Nor were poorer farmers hurt disproportionately when prices fell. In addition, we find strong spillovers from coffee production to other agriculture, which tends to favor the poor, and to nonagricultural activities. These multiplier effects are concentrated in coffee regions. In an economic environment characterized by a booming agricultural sector, coffee farmers were able to accommodate the negative price shock, in particular through agricultural diversification. General agricultural growth also cushioned possible negative multiplier effects in coffee regions. Overall, the case of coffee in Uganda thus lends support to the view that agricultural trade liberalization is beneficial for the poor.     

The International Coffee Agreement: Economics of the Nonmember Market

The provisions of the 1983 International Coffee Agreement (ICA) and proposed reforms to eliminate exports to nonmember importers at discounted prices are analyzed. The discounted sales were a key issue that led to the breakdown of negotiations for a new ICA and the end of export quotas under the current agreement. A model of the world coffee market incorporating the policy response of exporting countries is used to analyze the welfare implications of the different alternatives. The model shows that the price discounts result from the structure of the current agreement (the existence of nonmember importing countries) and allocation of export quotas for the member market, which does not reflect export capacity. Welfare calculations based on the model show that several small exporters derive substantial benefits from nonmember market sales. These exporters will not be willing to comply with an arrangement to allocate quotas for the nonmember market unless they receive a large share of this market. However, the large exporters appear determined to retain their market share. The results of the model predict that, unless importers no longer insist on eliminating the price discounts, a new agreement is unlikely.     

Macroeconomic impacts of export commodity price subsidy in Papua New Guinea

A macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impacts of a price subsidy for tree crops in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The price subsidy had favourable impacts on tree crop export income, aggregate demand, private consumption, and investment and employment. It increased imports, the budget deficit, and the demand for money and adversely affected the fiscal balance, inflation and interest rates, the BOP position and macroeconomic stability. The price subsidy contributed favourably to internal balance but adversely affected external balance. It worked against many of the policy objectives and made macroeconomic management difficult. With the introduction of the price subsidy, the government violated the commitments made under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and PNG's Structural Adjustment Program.     

The Value of Dairy Quota under a Commercial Export Milk Program

This paper argues that under a commercial export milk program, the market value of quota will be determined by the spread between the domestic market price and the export price, rather than the conventional wisdom that it is determined by the spread between the domestic milk price and the marginal cost of production. Under this new economy, it is argued that ultimately the market price of dairy quota will be priced independently of firm marginal costs, which implies that low-cost (or high-margin) producers will not hold an economic advantage in bidding for quota over higher-cost producers. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesized positive relationship between quota values and the difference between domestic and export milk price. The average export price has generally increased over time and is approximately equal to the marginal cost for an average producer. The results have implications for a World Trade Organization (WTO) challenge. New Zealand and the United States feel the domestic program acts as an export subsidy by cross-subsidizing production of commercial export milk. The results here suggest that the prices for the filled export contracts are approximately the marginal cost of production for the average producer and not lower, as suggested by the challenge. Export contracts were found to have higher price risk than domestically produced milk. The risk is compounded by the short-term nature of most export contracts. The increase in risk for the commercial export milk program (CEM) implies that it is unlikely many farmers will greatly diversify into CEM contracts unless the uncertainty is reduced.     

最低收购价政策调整对我国粮食安全的影响以稻谷为例

目的 最低收购价政策实施以来,在稳粮价、促生产、保粮安的同时,也产生了显著的负面影响,探索以市场机制为核心的粮食价格支持政策改革势在必行。方法 文章以稻谷为例,通过构建局部均衡模型,模拟逐渐下调最低收购价、取消最低收购价、取消最低收购价并大幅增加农业补贴等方案对我国稻谷的产量、总消费、库存和净进口等方面的影响,进而探究最低收购价政策调整对我国粮食安全的影响。结果 （1）下调稻谷最低收购价,对稻谷市场价格、总产量和总消费的影响较小,而对库存和净进口量的影响较大;（2）取消最低收购价,虽然能大幅度减小国内外差价、库存量和进口量,但短期内也会显著减少稻谷产量,对我国的粮食供给安全带来了巨大冲击;（3）取消稻谷最低收购价,并大幅度提高了农业补贴后,稻谷总产量下降水平明显减少,既解决了托市收购带来的负面影响,也降低了取消托市收购对粮食供给安全的冲击。结论 最低收购价政策的支持效应显著,为充分保障国内粮食安全,在推行粮食市场化改革时,应首先考虑小幅度下调最低收购价,而不是一次性取消最低收购价政策;同时,要配套相应的补贴政策,优化农业补贴结构,来保障粮农的种植积极性。     

中国水产品出口动力的三元边际分析

目的 通过分析2000年以来中国水产品出口增长的主要动力及其结构性变化,明确中国水产品出口的变化趋势,为相关部门调整政策、适应国际水产品市场的新变化提供依据。方法 基于2000—2020年联合国贸易数据库中的113万条大数据,文章采用三元边际分析方法对中国水产品的出口增长动力进行了多维度的分解分析。结果 基于中国水产品出口增长的主要动力的阶段性转换,可以将2000—2020年分为3个阶段。第一阶段是2000—2007年,中国水产品的出口增长的主要动力是出口数量增加,其中初级水产品在出口数量增加的同时出口价格也在提高,而加工水产品在出口数量增长的同时出口种类也在增加。第二阶段是2007—2015年,中国水产品出口增长的主要动力由出口数量增加转变为出口价格提高,初级水产品和加工水产品的主要动力都是出口价格提高。第三阶段是2015—2020年,这一时期中国水产品出口出现瓶颈,增长乏力。结论 中国水产品出口增长的主要动力在不同时期和不同品种之间存在结构性差异。中国应采取多种措施提升水产品出口竞争力：一是以提升水产品质量为主要抓手促进出口;二是加快发展加工水产业,不断延伸和拓宽水产品产业链;三是深入分析地区差异,更加重视对发展中国家的出口。     

森林认证的政策扶持效应分析

森林认证作为一种促进森林可持续经营的市场机制,可以有效保护环境,促进生态良好。通过对森林认证进行政策扶持的可行性和必要性进行分析,提出对森林认证进行政策扶持的3个政策:出口补贴、生产补贴、消费补贴的效应。生产补贴是3个政策中最直接有效的。