东道国知识产权保护、外商技术投入与贸易福利的门槛效应--来自中国的经验证据

加强知识产权保护是中国扩大对外开放过程中的必然要求。从社会总体福利角度分类型分析知识产权保护的贸易福利效应具有理论创新和经验检验价值。本文以投资东道国为视角,将知识产权保护、技术投入和贸易福利置于同一分析框架,理论及实证研究结果显示知识产权保护强度可通过改变海外企业技术投入决策,从消费者效用和企业收益两方面进一步影响贸易福利。虽然中国知识产权保护对贸易福利的影响存在门槛效应,且影响效果随产品类别和贸易形势的不同而存在显著差异,但中国仍具有进一步加强知识产权保护的制度空间。协调统筹涉外知识产权事宜,灵活把握知识产权保护力度,积极探索新兴领域知识产权保护规则是未来知识产权保护体系构建过程中的重点任务。     

扬组合投资之帆 起个人理财之航

在投资环境日趋复杂的现代社会,几乎所有的投资都是在风险和不确定状态下进行的。风险是客观存在的,它随着内外环境因素的变化而变化。通过对不同资产标的物、不同产业和不同领域中的风险资产和金融工具进行多元化的投资组合来减少收益的波动程度。选择多元化的组合投资就是大家所熟知的     

国际贸易理论中的要素流动研究述评

国际贸易理论中的要素流动研究于经典贸易理论分析框架下展开，主要关注于生产要素国际流动对一国贸易均衡与福利水平的影响、要素流动与贸易之间的关系以及在传统国际贸易理论框架下生产要素跨国流动的收益。这些研究在不断接近生产要素流动的现实，但是却依然没有研究要素流动本身，对于要素流动的规律与收益特别是要素流动收益的国际差异缺乏系统分析。     

基于联合减排与销售努力的三级低碳供应链成本分担契约选择

在碳交易政策背景下,从消费者感知最终产成品的角度出发,针对由碳排放依赖型供应商和制造商及进行低碳产品宣传的零售商组成的三级低碳供应链,本文采用Stackelberg博弈模型,考虑环境福利,制造商可选择无成本分担(NS)、仅分担销售努力成本(SS)、仅分担减排成本(CS)和两者均分担(BS)等契约,探讨制造商与供应链上下游企业合作减排与销售努力策略问题,分析不同契约下的供应链策略及其对社会福利的影响。研究发现：当制造商的边际收益达到某一阈值时,制造商才会选取SS或CS模式;当制造商的边际收益同时大于SS与CS模式下的临界值条件时,制造商才会选取BS模式,但此时SS与CS模式下的供应链各方福利大小关系并不确定;碳排放依赖较大的行业倾向于选取CS模式,依赖销售努力较大的行业倾向于选取SS模式。     

品牌资产价值评估研究:一个文献综述

品牌资产作为由企业和消费者共同作用所形成的无形资产,对其进行货币化的衡量是目前评估机构和众多学者进行的工作。文章基于相关文献的梳理,在界定品牌和品牌资产概念基础上,着重对品牌资产的评估方法进行对比分析,提炼出两类评估基本框架,即基于财务视角的品牌资产价值评估和基于消费者视角的评估。同时,品牌资产未来收益以及折现率的确立也因评估视角的不同而出现差异。加快品牌资产资本化运作,确保品牌高质量发展,将进一步推动品牌资产评估研究工作。文章最后也对品牌资产评估提出了建议。     

克服中国企业跨国并购双重劣势的新策略：中企境外身份作用机制的实证分析

近20年来,中资企业跨国并购活动既呈现高速增长特征,又表现出低于发达经济体甚至一些新兴经济体的并购交易完成率。中资企业开展跨国并购活动面临外来者劣势的影响,受到新兴经济体身份的来源国劣势危害。本文基于2003～2019年中资企业在126个国家的跨国并购数据,建立反事实研究框架,使用多种匹配方法,实证证明了中资企业在实施跨国并购时使用境外子公司身份可以作为企业层面一项减少外来者劣势和来源国劣势危害、提高并购交易成功概率的主动性策略。异质性分析的结论显示,该策略在中资企业跨国并购的主要流向国家中均适用,对非发达经济体和新兴经济体采用该策略可以获得高约两倍的成功概率增幅。     

企业跨国并购风险国内外研究综述

目前国内外学者对企业跨国并购的研究大多集中于并购动因、并购绩效的评价两方面,对并购风险的研究相对较少。比较东西方关于跨国并购风险的理论,发现这些理论大多只对并购的某一局部风险进行分析,且停留在定性分析和案例分析两方面,对整个并购过程风险的控制还没有一个统一的理论框架。     

技术性贸易壁垒政策择优:一个局部均衡的分析框架

技术性贸易壁垒由于其维护国家安全、保护人类和动植物安全和健康、保证产品质量以及保护环境等方面的正当理由 ,成为了贸易保护主义的庇护所。各进口国频繁使用技术性贸易壁垒来保护本国产业和市场 ,有时候保护的成本是很高的 ,甚至超过了保护的收益所得。本文用一个单一产品市场局部均衡的分析框架 ,演示利用成本收益分析对SPS措施进行政策择优的过程 ,该方法提供了分析不同收益和成本以及贸易限制、价格和福利关系的框架。结论是 ,进口国应该权衡成本和收益 ,技术性贸易壁垒政策的实施要考虑经济效率 ,经济学的分析可以为此提供理论依据。     

后危机时代中国企业跨国并购的风险分担

后金融危机时期经济形势更加复杂难辨,我国企业的跨国并购将面临前所未有的挑战与风险。以此为背景分析了后危机时代中国企业跨国并购的风险,构建了跨国并购风险分担机制设计模型,并设计了风险分担机制表。     

随机需求下供应链库存风险分担策略

在分析单一供应商和单一分销商组成的供应链库存协调基本模型的基础上,运用供应商回收部分未售出商品这一激励措施来分担库存风险,从而使得整个供应链在需求随机情况下收益最大化。     

Multilateral,Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post‐Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post‐Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non‐member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.     

General equilibrium trade modelling with Canada–US transportation costs

Transportation costs are an important topic in international trade, but seldom have researchers paid attention to general equilibrium trade modelling with transportation costs and explored their relevant effects. This paper uses numerical general equilibrium trade model structures to simulate the impacts of transportation costs on welfare and trade for a Canada–US country pair case. We compare two groups of model structures: Armington assumption models and homogeneous goods models. Within these two groups of models, we also compare balanced trade structures to trade imbalance structures and production function transportation costs to iceberg transportation costs. Armington goods models generate more absolute welfare gains from transportation cost elimination than homogeneous goods models. Welfare gains under balanced trade structures are larger in production function transportation cost scenarios than in iceberg transportation cost scenarios, but under trade imbalance structures, welfare gains are greater under iceberg transportation cost scenarios. Canada's welfare gains in the iceberg transportation cost scenario are significantly larger than gains in the production function transportation cost scenario. On trade effects, homogeneous goods models generate more export and import gains, balanced trade structures have more trade variations, and iceberg transportation costs generate more trade effects.     

Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment

We develop a numerical growth model that quantifies the welfare effects of trade liberalization. Additional intermediate input varieties provide the engine of growth and dramatically magnify the welfare gains from trade liberalization. In our central model, a 10% tariff cut leads to a 10.6% estimated gain in Hicksian EV. Systematic sensitivity analysis shows that there is virtually no chance of a welfare increase less than 3%, but a 6.6% chance of a welfare gain greater than 18%. We show that complementary reforms are crucial to fully realize the potential gains from the trade reform.     

A quantitative analysis of employment guarantee programmes with an application to rural India

This paper examines the welfare effects of a workfare programme in an economy where agents face exogenous income shocks and are unable to insure themselves through private markets. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated using data from two ICRISAT villages in the Indian state of Maharashtra, which had a functioning Employment Guarantee Scheme (EGS), in the period 1979–84. The optimal wage and the welfare gains of the program depend on how productive the EGS is, relative to the private sector. When agents are paid the optimal wage rate, they do not hold the non-interest-bearing asset for precautionary savings and all insurance is provided by the EGS. There are significant welfare gains from paying the optimal wage rate as opposed to simply paying the marginal product of labour in the EGS.     

Outsourcing, unemployment and welfare policy

The paper investigates the consequences of outsourcing of labor intensive activities to low-wage economies. This trend challenges the two basic functions of the welfare state, redistribution and social insurance when private unemployment insurance markets are missing. The main results are: (i) outsourcing raises unemployment and labor income risk of unskilled workers; (ii) it increases inequality between high- and low-income groups; and (iii) the gains from outsourcing can be made Pareto improving by using a redistributive linear income tax if redistribution is initially not too large. We finally derive the welfare optimal redistribution and unemployment insurance policies.     

Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises' Collaborative Buyer–Supplier Relationships: Boundary Spanning Individual Perspectives

Boundary‐spanning individuals (BSIs) play a critical role in supply chain management, especially in small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) where interactions with buyers and suppliers can depend heavily on just a few individuals. This study, utilizing data from Korean manufacturing‐sector SMEs, explores whether cooperative social value orientations of SMEs' BSIs influence the effects of collaborative buyer‐supplier initiatives. The results suggested that the performance implication of decision‐sharing initiative increases when BSIs have a high level of cooperative social value orientation. However, it also negatively moderates the relationship between risk/benefit sharing (involving financial losses or gains) and performance suggesting possible negative side effects. However, we found that such orientation also negatively moderates the relationship between risk/benefit sharing (involving direct financial losses or gains) and relationship performance suggesting possible negative side effects.     

Endogenous market structures and the gains from foreign direct investment

This paper discusses the gains from liberalizing foreign direct investment (FDI) in a two-country setting with endogenous market structure. We investigate two different scenarios. In the first scenario, headquarters costs are large in the foreign country so that the industry is located in the domestic country only. In this case, multinational and national firms may coexist and market concentration may make FDI welfare improving for the foreign country and welfare reducing for the domestic country. In the second scenario, headquarters costs are symmetric and firms will be located in both countries. Here, profitable FDI activities lead to mutual welfare gains, irrespective of market structure effects.     

Climate Policy‐induced Investments in Developing Countries: The Implications of Investment Risks

1075 (Christoph Böhringer and Andreas Löschel) International climate policy has assigned the leading role in emissions abatement to the industrialised countries while developing countries remain uncommitted to binding emission reduction targets. However, cooperation between the industrialised and the developing world through joint implementation of emission abatement promises substantial economic gains to both parties. In this context, the policy debate on joint implementation has addressed the question of how investment risks to project‐based emission crediting between industrialised countries and developing countries affect the magnitude and distribution of such gains. In our quantitative analysis, we find that the incorporation of country‐specific investment risks induces rather small changes vis‐à‐vis a situation where investment risks are neglected. Only if investors go for high safety of returns is there a noticeable decline in the overall volume of emission crediting and the associated total economic benefits. While the welfare effects of risk incorporation for industrialised countries are unequivocally negative, the implications across developing countries are ambiguous. Whereas low‐risk developing countries attract higher project volumes and benefit from higher effective prices per emission credit compared to a reference scenario without risk, the opposite applies to high‐risk countries. The – politically undesired – shift in comparative advantage of emission abatement against high‐risk, typically least‐developed, countries may become larger if risk‐averse investors perceive large differences in project‐based risks across countries. In this case, only very cheap mitigation projects in high‐risk countries will be realised, driving down the respective country's benefits from emission crediting to the advantage of low‐risk developing countries.     

Growing market concentration and changes in consumer welfare: The case of the U.S. commercial airline market

Initial assessments of the economic deregulation of the U.S. airline industry indicated that most consumers gained from the increased competition in the airline market. More recent studies have reached less favorable conclusions. In this study, changes in passenger welfare are determined for 19 U.S. destination cities for the years 1979, 1983, and 1987 on the basis of Hicks' equivalent variation measure, using a counterfactual research design. Particular attention is given to variations in consumer welfare gains/losses depending on (a) the proportion of the change in air fares attributed to deregulation, and (b) the destination airport's classification. The estimates suggest that travelers to large, long-standing hub cities were generally insulated from any large post-1979 welfare changes. Travelers to new hubs experienced substantial welfare declines between 1979 and 1987 — although their post-1983 welfare changes were uniformly positive. Travel to nonhub airports showed the greatest variance, with both the relatively largest welfare gains and the relatively largest losses.     

Efficiency,equity, and environmental implications of trade liberalization: A computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper evaluates the effect of trade liberalization on global efficiency, equity, and the environment using global welfare, welfare redistribution, and carbon emission as indicators. A static, computable general equilibrium trade model with explicit representation of agricultural production and energy use is used to simulate a series of new scenarios in which 1997 baseline import tax and export subsidy trade barrier equivalents are scaled back. Findings indicate that with trade liberalization agricultural output declines, energy use increases, and carbon emissions rise. Global welfare rises revealing an overall increase in efficiency; however, gains to poorer nations come at the expense of richer nations. An increase in the use of polluting inputs such as coal in developing countries suggests poorer nations will risk environmental degradation with the lowering of trade barriers.