印度的对外能源合作

印度经济高速发展，因受国内能源产量的制约，石油需求缺口不断扩大。为了解决这一矛盾，印度加强了与中东、中亚、俄罗斯、中国、美国、拉美及非洲的能源合作。     

非洲石油贸易:中国的视角

非洲石油的储量和产量都较高,而且非洲石油有其种类多、质量好、开采成本低等独特的优点。与产量形成鲜明对比的是非洲的石油消费量较低,因此非洲石油的对外输出是其石油工业的主要特点。中国从非洲地区石油进口的数量和份额正逐年提高,中国已成为非洲的第二大原油出口目的国。在未来的中非石油合作中,中国要遵循互利共赢的原则,稳定非洲贸易油份额,提升份额油比重并且创造性地实施中非石油合作的新模式。     

非洲石油贸易:中国的视角北大核心CSSCISSCI

非洲石油的储量和产量都较高,而且非洲石油有其种类多、质量好、开采成本低等独特的优点。与产量形成鲜明对比的是非洲的石油消费量较低,因此非洲石油的对外输出是其石油工业的主要特点。中国从非洲地区石油进口的数量和份额正逐年提高,中国已成为非洲的第二大原油出口目的国。在未来的中非石油合作中,中国要遵循"互利共赢"的原则,稳定非洲"贸易油"份额,提升"份额油"比重并且创造性地实施中非石油合作的新模式。     

勘探开发非洲石油资源的机遇与挑战

一、勘探开发非洲石油资源正迎来难得的历史机遇 (一)非洲石油开采业正步入快速发展的黄金时期.一批新的产油国正迅速崛起.这为我国石油企业在非洲发展提供了广阔的空间.     

中国与非洲的石油贸易与合作

在世界石油供求失衡、国际市场原油价格节节攀升的背景下,非洲在中国的能源外交中扮演着越来越重的角色.本文重点论述了中非石油贸易关系和现存合作方式,并且针对进一步发展与非洲的石油贸易合作所面临的主要风险进行了简要分析,提出了初步的建议.     

地缘政治因素对中国石油企业投资非洲的影响分析

石油,10％是经济,90％是政治。石油与地缘政治之间的密切关系,是其他任何原材料所无法企及的。非洲拥有丰富的石油资源,已探明储量占世界的10％,随着几内亚湾地区海上石油资源的发现,非洲的地缘政治价值日益凸显,在全球新的石油地缘政治格局中的重要性越来越大。中国与非洲国家在能源领域里的合作始于20世纪90年代。近些年来,中国石油企业在非洲的投资更是得到了长足的进步,进程不断加快,但是中国石油企业投资非洲的变数较多。形势复杂,受到一系列因素的影响,其中,地缘政治因素是重要的影响因素之一。,文章首先简要介绍地缘政治的概念,然后具体分析了地缘政治因素对我国石油企业投资非洲的影响,最后提出了有针对性的政策建议。     

日本满世界捞石油

现在满世界找石油的国家，除了中国，还有日本。在日本东京都内宾馆举行的“第三届非洲开发会议”上，日本首相小泉纯一郎称，将在今后5年无偿向非洲提供总额10亿美元的帮助，同时保证放弃对非洲等重债务贫困国家总额约30亿美元的债权。他还在一天中与19个非洲国家、机构的首脑进行了会谈，创造了日本首相一天内进行首脑会谈之最。日本媒体认为，小泉对于非洲“感情”突然增温，主要是看中了非洲大量未被开发的石油资源。     

美国的战略石油储备体系

美国于1975年开始建立国家战略石油储备，已有近30年的历史。目前其战略石油储备量已达6.5亿桶，为全球战略石油储备量最多的国家。在近30年的历程中，美国在国家战略石油储备的建立和管理等方面积累了较为丰富的经验，特别是在1991年海湾战争中，美国通过释放战略石油储备成功地维护了石油供应安全，平抑了国际市场的油价，稳定了经济发展，显示出国家战略石油储备的巨大功效。     

冷战后美国对非洲战略的演变及启示北大核心CSSCISSCI

美国对非洲的战略是随着非洲政治经济地位以及美国在非洲战略利益的变化而发展的。冷战结束初期,非洲在美国全球战略中的地位急剧下降,美国对非洲战略延续了冷战期间高度重视政治利益的思维模式。自20世纪90年代中期以来,随着非洲政治经济形势趋于好转和区域联合自强的意识逐渐增强,     

冷战后美国对非洲战略的演变及启示

美国对非洲的战略是随着非洲政治经济地位以及美国在非洲战略利益的变化而发展的。冷战结束初期,非洲在美国全球战略中的地位急剧下降,美国对非洲     

U.S. OIL DEMAND AND CONSERVATION

Recent history has lent casual support to three popular theories about U.S. oil demand: (i) U.S. oil consumption is very insensitive to changing oil prices, (ii) non-price conservation has reduced U.S. oil demand, and (Hi) U.S. oil consumption falls more when oil prices rise than it rises when oil prices fall. Together, these theories suggest that one could hold oil consumption constant without much economic sacrifice. The authors' econometric evidence does not support these theories. This evidence indicates that U.S. oil consumption is fairly responsive to price changes over the long run, but with a considerable lag. Sharp oil price increases—or an equivalent policy action—would be needed to hold oil consumption constant during the 1990s.     

美国购油策略分析及对中国的启示

美国页岩油革命改变了美国原油贸易格局，使得美国进口原油品质趋于重质化，且地域来源趋于集中化。本文通过挖掘页岩油革命后美国原油进口策略转变的内在原因，提出美国国内页岩油需求与对加拿大原油进口之间存在互补效应，而与对欧佩克原油进口之间存在替代效应，并通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验，分析了美国页岩油需求和对各国原油进口的互动关系。本文的研究结果对中国的页岩油战略和中美原油贸易关系均有重要的政策启示。     

THE ECONOMIC COST OF U.S. OIL CONSERVATION

This article examines the costs of U.S. oil conservation by using parameters of five world oil models from a recent Energy Modeling Forum study. Variation in the estimated cost of oil conservation across the models suggests that achieving oil conservation through flexible policies that adjust to market conditions would better serve economic efficiency than would setting government-mandated levels of oil consumption. Additionally, net world oil conservation is likely to be somewhat less than gross U.S. conservation. U.S. oil conservation lowers the world oil price and stimulates non-U.S. oil consumption. Including the gains in non-U.S. oil consumption raises the estimated costs of achieving a given conservation level .     

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand.     

Refinery mix in the U.S., Canada,and the E.E.C.

This paper examines the response of gasoline's share of a barrel of crude oil to changes in relative petroleum product prices. An inter-country comparison of the U.S., Canada, and the E.E.C. allows investigation of different parts of the production possibility frontier. In the U.S. and Canada, with relatively large amounts of cracking capacity, there is price responsiveness of the product mix to changes in relative product prices. In the U.S., both residual and distillates are substitutes in production for gasoline, but for Canada, only distillate is a substitute. Part of this difference is attributed to the U.S. oil quota. For the E.E.C. with relatively small amounts of cracking capacity there was no discernible effect of product prices on product mix.     

美国页岩油勘探开发前景展望及其影响分析

对国内外页岩油的概念进行了系统分析,梳理了美国页岩油勘探开发历程,将其划分为发现阶段、认识突破阶段和快速发展阶段三个阶段。之后从剩余资源量、证实储量以及产量三个层次分析了美国页岩油产业发展的资源基础,认为美国页岩油产业具有良好的发展潜力。对美国页岩油产业的发展环境进行了分析,认为美国政府的扶持以及页岩油气潜力对国内外大量资金的吸引是美国页岩油产业在新时期发展的根本保障。最后,对美国页岩油产业的发展路径以及全球影响进行了分析和展望。     

LIMITING U.S. OIL IMPORTS: COST ESTIMATES

The Energy Modeling Forum recently compared ten world oil models. This paper examines the costs of curtailing growth in U.S. oil imports based upon the supply and demand responses to price in six of these models. The analysis estimates direct resource costs over the 1989–2010 period from U.S. results for aflat and a rising price case spanning an $18 per barrel difference by the year 2000 and beyond. To provide a balanced perspective, the paper also includes estimates of some potential benefits from import-reduction policies. These benefits include smaller wealth transfers during a disruption and lower oil prices without disruptions. While keeping future oil imports at today's level appears to be quite costly, the results here indicate that less aggressive import-reduction programs offer some opportunity for economic gain.     

Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach

In this paper, we use a wavelet approach to study the linear and nonlinear Granger causality between the real oil price and the real effective U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Instead of analyzing the time series at their original level, as it is usually done, we first decompose the two macroeconomic variables at various scales of resolution using wavelet decomposition and then we study the relationships among the decomposed series on a scale by scale basis. A major finding of this paper is that the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the real oil price and the real effective U.S. Dollar exchange rate vary over frequency bands as it depends on the time scales. Indeed, there is a strong bidirectional causal relationship between the real oil price and the real dollar exchange rate for large time horizons, i.e. corresponding to fundamentalist traders, especially fund managers and institutional investors. But, for the first frequency band which corresponds to a class of traders whom investment horizon is about 3-months and whom trading is principally speculative (noise traders), the causality runs only from the real oil prices to real effective U.S dollar exchange rate.     

U.S. SHIPPING SUBSIDIES AND OCEAN SHIPPING OF PETROLEUM: POLICY CHOICES

United States oil imports are predominantly carried in non-U.S. ships, a fact that some interpret as an energy security problem whose solution lies in increasing federal assistance to U.S. shipbuilding and shipping industries. This paper examines three options (one regulatory, two budgetary) for such federal assistance. Examination of the options comprises estimates of relative costs, consequences for traditional U.S. maritime goals, and implications for national security. The options are found to differ significantly in respect to relative cost and capacity to meet military security needs. As background, the paper also analyzes the costs of U.S. shipbuilding and shipping industries relative to their foreign counterparts. It thereby indicates why, and how much, federal assistance would be required to satisfy national security goals. The paper concludes that the regulatory policy option (cargo preference) has the highest relative cost and is the least effective for meeting national security goals.     

Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach

This paper investigates the presence of asymmetries in the short- and long-run relationships between the 5-year CDS index spreads at the U.S. industry level and a set of major macroeconomic and financial variables, namely the corresponding industry stock indices, the VIX index, the 5-year Treasury bond yield and the crude oil price, using the NARDL approach. The empirical results provide significant evidence of both short-run and long-run asymmetries in the linkage between ten industry CDS spreads and the potential driving factors common for all industries, confirming the importance of asymmetric nonlinearity in this context. It is also shown that the industry equity prices, the VIX, the 5-year Treasury bond rate and, to a lesser extent, the crude oil price constitute important asymmetric determinants of these U.S. industry CDS spreads. The findings of this study have relevant implications for investors, speculators, arbitrageurs and policy makers interested in credit risk at the industry level.