Pairs trading: does volatility timing matter?

Pairs trading is a dollar-neutral trading strategy. Using the components of two major stock indices, the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225, this article deals with the performance of a pairs trading system based on various pairs selection methods (distance, stationarity, cointegration) over a 10-year period. On both markets, using a classical framework, cointegration appears superior and effective. On the U.S. market and also in Japan to a lower extent, pairs trading strategies exhibited an impressive performance during the 2008 financial crisis. Bearish periods are associated with a high level of the VIX index: the ‘investor fear gauge’. Using a modified trading system, this article examines the link between pairs trading performance and volatility/VIX timing. It is shown that for the best selection technique (cointegration), timing volatility has no economic value in a pairs trading context.     

The competitive and anticompetitive aheories of advertising: an empirical analysis

Pairs trading is a popular dollar-neutral trading strategy. This article, using the components of the S&P 500 index, explores the performance of a pairs trading system based on various pairs selection methods. Whereas large empirical applications in the literature focus on the distance method, this article also deals with well-known statistical and econometric techniques such as stationarity and cointegration which make the trading system much more demanding from a computational point of view. Trades are initiated when stocks deviate from their equilibrium. Our results confirm, after controlling for risk and transaction costs, that the distance method generates insignificant excess returns. While a pairs selection following the stationarity criterion leads to a weak performance, this article reveals that cointegration provides a high, stable and robust return.     

Non-linear dependence modelling with bivariate copulas: statistical arbitrage pairs trading on the S&P 100

We develop a copula-based pairs trading framework and apply it to the S&P 100 index constituents from 1990 to 2014. We propose an integrated approach, relying on copulas for pairs selection and trading. Essentially, we fit t-copulas to all possible combinations of pairs in a formation period. Next, we trade these pairs in-sample to assess the profitability of mispricing signals derived from t-copulas. The top pairs are transferred to an out-of-sample trading period, and traded with individualized exit thresholds. In particular, we differentiate between pairs exhibiting mean-reversion and momentum effects and apply idiosyncratic take-profit and stop-loss rules. For the top 5 mean-reversion pairs, we find out-of-sample returns of 7.98% per year; the top 5 momentum pairs yield 7.22% per year. Standard deviations are low, leading to annualized Sharpe ratios of 1.52 (top 5 mean-reversion) and 1.33 (top 5 momentum), respectively.     

Trading asymmetric trend and volatility by leverage trend GARCH in Taiwan stock index

This article develops a leverage trend Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model by incorporating asymmetric trend of returns of the exponential autoregressive and asymmetric volatility of GARCH models to study the asymmetric effects. Using in-sample daily data of Taiex over the period 4 January 1980 to 25 August 1997 and postsample daily data over the period 26 August 1997 to 10 September 2007, the evidence reveals that a curvaceous risk–return relationship and both asymmetric volatility and asymmetric trend of returns are significant in Taiex. The episode of asymmetric trend of returns is that the positive information creates a higher return trend than the negative information of the same amount, while similarly to most studies, the evidence of asymmetric volatility appears that the negative information makes a higher volatility than the positive information of the same size. Most remarkably, we evidence that the volatility asymmetry effect is a conservative trading factor and the return trend asymmetry effect is an active trading factor. In comparison of post-sample performance using rolling-window technique, the leverage trend GARCH model indeed outperforms the other three models with single asymmetry adjusted or without asymmetry adjusted, while the asymmetry nonadjusted model performs the worst. It implies that the return trend asymmetry (active trading) and the volatility asymmetry effects (conservative trading) tend to compensate, but not offset each other.     

Pairs trading: the case of Norwegian seafood companies

In this article, I investigate the performance of a pairs trading strategy on 18 seafood company stocks traded in the Norwegian consumer goods sector on the Oslo Stock Exchange. I apply both high-frequency and daily data from January 2005 to December 2014. I use two approaches – a distance approach and a cointegration approach – and compare the results. For both the distance and the cointegration approaches, nonconvergence of the pairs is high, which may indicate that more fundamental information about the companies traded should be accounted for. None of the strategies evaluated had significant profits after accounting for transaction costs. It therefore remains unclear which approach is best suited for pairs selection. Using high-frequency data yielded empirical distributions that were symmetrical and had a lower degree of leptokurtosis compared to the daily data.     

个人投资者交易行为研究——来自台湾股市的证据

本文基于台湾股市数据,主要研究个人投资者的交易行为。参照Kaniel et al.(2008)构建了个人投资者交易不平衡性指标─净交易,以反映投资者股票交易的强度。采用这种交易不平衡性指标来构建投资组合研究个人投资者的交易行为。首先研究个人投资者交易和股票的收益之间的动态关系从而分析投资者的交易策略,然后研究个人投资者净交易的收益预测能力从而分析个人投资者交易的信息含量。本文研究发现:台湾股票市场的个人投资者采用负反馈的交易策略,并且个人投资者在交易中表现出很强的处置效应;个人投资者在交易中的信息含量不足;个人投资者交易中的盈利主要来自两个方面:过度反应和价格冲击。文章最后给出政策建议。     

Investor Attention Strategy

This article documents the motivation, the construction, and the profitability of an investment strategy based on investor attention in the options market. Using the option volume after a 1-week dormant period as a proxy for investor attention, the author shows that heightened investor attention after the dormant period has rich investment implications. A portfolio constructed on the basis of volume spike events immediately after the dormant period generates an abnormal return of 68 basis points on a monthly basis (8.16% on an annualized basis). This abnormal return is robust to risk adjustment using standard asset pricing models. The author's findings constitute strong evidence that it is profitable for outside investors to mimic attentive investors in the options market and reap economically and statistically significant profits.     

The disappearing size effect

In this paper, we use average monthly returns and monthly cross-sectional regressions to investigate the relation between returns and firm size. During the period 1963–1981, we find an annualized return difference between small and large firms over 13% compared to a negative 2% return differential since 1982. Removal of the smallest firms (less than $5 million market value) eliminates any statistically significant size effect during the sample period using a regression framework. Several explanations are proposed for the disappearance of the size effect. Our results imply that size should not be considered as a systematic proxy for risk.     

中国股票市场交易型的价格操纵研究

本文研究中国股票市场的交易型价格操纵问题。我们推广了Mei、Wu和Zhou(2005)的模型,研究在市场不允许卖空的条件下,交易型价格操纵发生的条件。我们的主要结果有:(1)非充分理性投资者的存在和有限套利的制约是交易型价格操纵获利的重要原因,投机者套利能力越弱,操纵者的价格操纵越容易获利;(2)当市场中投机者的总禀赋大于0时,即使不允许卖空,价格操纵者依然可以操纵价格来获得利润;(3)如果市场监管者无法杜绝操纵者通过对敲等手段来拉抬股价,则在市场中引入卖空机制反而可以减小股价对基本面的偏离程度,从而在某种程度上限制操纵者操纵股价的空间;(4)在股价被操纵的过程中,存在一个建仓期和抛盘期;操纵期内换手率更高、股价波动更大;在建仓期,回报率与换手率,换手率与回报波动率之间存在正相关关系;(5)我们利用中国股市的数据检验了我们的结论,发现理论结果和实证数据非常吻合。     

Managed Futures for Long‐Term Investors: A DEA Ranking Analysis

This study proposes an alternative Data Envelopment Analysis ranking model to evaluate the relative performance efficiency of commodity‐trading advisors. I measure the performance efficiency using the decision‐making process quality/trading skills framework and depart from the traditional risk–return framework. The Data Envelopment Analysis rankings produced some interesting results. First, similarly to the previous studies, I successfully isolated two ‘superstar’ commodity‐trading advisors with the highest Sharpe ratios as the Grade A commodity‐trading advisors. However, as an improvement over the similar studies that used the traditional risk–return framework, I also isolated two commodity‐trading advisors with average and below‐average Sharpe ratios as Grade A commodity‐trading advisors.     

Time-Series Support for Balassa's Productivity-Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from Korea

In this paper we use the Johansen and Juselius cointegration technique and quarterly data over the period 1979–1993 to test the productivity-bias hypothesis between Korea and four of its major trading partners (Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The results show that in all four cases the deviation of purchasing-power parity (PPP) from the equilibrium exchange rate has a long-run relationship with the productivity ratios, supporting the notion that as Korea becomes relatively more productive, the Korean won appreciates in real terms.     

The anatomy of returns from moving average trading rules in the Russian stock market

This paper examines the profitability of index trading strategies that are based on dual moving average crossover (DMAC) rules in the Russian stock market over the 2003–2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis (TA) literature by comparing for the first time in emerging markets the relative performance of individual stocks’ trading portfolios with that of trading strategies for the index that consists of the same stocks (i.e., the most liquid stocks of the Moscow Exchange). The results show that the best trading strategies of the in-sample period can outperform buy-and-hold strategy during the subsequent out-of-sample period, although with low statistical significance. In addition, we document the benefits of using DMAC combinations that are much longer than those employed in previous TA literature. Moreover, the decomposition of the full-sample-period performance into separate bull- and bear-period performances shows that the outperformance of the best past index trading strategies over is mostly attributable to the fact that they managed to stay mostly out of the stock market during a dramatic crash caused by the global financial crisis.     

水权交易比率制度的设计与模拟

在传统水权交易制度下 ,不同用户之间的水权交易可能会减少交易双方之间河段、以及后续河段的留川水量。由于此第三者负效应的存在 ,水权交易一直难于应用与实施。本文设计了一套简单易行的水权交易比率制度。首先 ,政府规定各河段的最小留川水量需求 ;接着 ,根据留川水量需求决定各河段水权的初始分配 ,并根据交易双方用水的回流系数规定各用水者之间的交易比率。     

The profitability of momentum trading strategies: Empirical evidence from Hong Kong

This paper investigates whether momentum trading strategies are profitable in the Hong Kong stock market, and examines the sources of such profitability. Momentum portfolios are significantly profitable in the intermediate term in Hong Kong, but the profits become insignificant after risk adjustment by the Chordia and Shivakumar (2001) model. The stock-specific return strategy and factor-related return strategy are analyzed to examine which portion of the total return causes stocks to enter extreme portfolios. The Chordia and Shivakumar factor-related return strategy obtains profits with a magnitude that is close to that which is attained by the total return momentum strategy. Additional evidence further supports the view that the Chordia and Shivakumar model captures momentum profits.     

Strategic decisions on bilateral bidding behavior: evidence from a wholesale electricity market

This article analyzes the strategic bilateral bidding behavior in the Spanish electricity wholesale market (OMEL). The collection of data includes information regarding weekly averages of spot prices, the quantity bid in the wholesale market, the quantities purchased in the wholesale market and sold in the open market, and the behavior of conduct parameters for the period from January 2002 to April 2007 for the four largest firms of the Spanish electricity market: Endesa, Iberdrola, Unión Fenosa and Hidrocantábrico. This article employs the New Empirical Industrial Organization approach. The empirical analysis was based on the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and on the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality tests to validate the standard version of the theoretical formulation of the standard Cournot model, and its theoretical extension, to encompass the hypothesis of the presence of bid interdependence for electricity quantities sold and bought in the Spanish electricity wholesale market. The results of cointegration and causality analysis reinforce the empirical results of the extended Cournot model with the inclusion of the two main bidding variables that solved the optimization problem of profit maximization for each of the four firms analyzed.     

The Role of Hedge Funds in International Financial Markets

This paper analyses the risk and return characteristics of a wide universe of hedge funds in the period 1990–2000. Most major categories of hedge funds are found to have outperformed (often by a considerable margin) the performance of traditional asset classes. The potential impact of hedge fund trading on market spreads and volatilities is examined especially in the period 1998, so as to provide some guidelines in terms of regulation of such funds. It is shown, however, that despite hedge fund difficulties in that period, the inclusion of hedge funds in investor portfolios definitely moves the efficiency frontier outwards, and allows significantly higher levels of returns for given levels of risk. This is primarily because of the low level of correlation of certain hedge fund styles, especially arbitrage strategies, with other hedge fund styles and with traditional assets.
(J.E.L.: G10, G11, G14, G23).     

动量和反转投资策略在我国股市中的实证分析

本文采用沪深两市1995年前上市的股票作为样本,发现我国股市中也存在明显的动量和反转盈利,且两种效应的强弱与大盘走势相关,当市场为牛市特征时,动量效应明显强于反转效应;当市场为熊市特征时,则反之.经典的CAPM模型无法解释动量和反转盈利的来源,检验表明投资者对不同类型信息的不同反应方式,可以很好解释我国股市中的动量和反转盈利,利用上述检验结果还可以解释我国股市中许多有趣的特征.     

Sustainability of current account deficits in India: an intertemporal perspective

This study examines the sustainability of current account deficits (CADs) and the validity of intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) in India. The long-run model is estimated on annual data for the period 1950–1951 to 2009–2010. The optimal single-equation and maximum-likelihood (ML) system estimates of the model provide a consistent support for the long-run relationship between imports and exports. The OLSGH estimates provide no support and that ML system estimates a consistent support for cointegration in both the models estimated with one and two structural breaks in level. The new cointegration breakdown tests generally suggest that the cointegration prevails from 1951 to 2010. The evidence supporting the cointegration between imports and exports overwhelms the evidence providing a mixed or no support for cointegration. The estimates of slope parameter above zero and the dominant support for cointegration between imports and exports vindicate the validity of IBC and the sustainability of CADs. The short-term management strategies need to be accompanied by long-term improvements in productivity to reduce inflation, lever up the competitiveness of exports and ensure the sustainability of the external value of domestic currency.     

Banks’ Interest Rate Risk and Search for Yield: A Theoretical Rationale and Some Empirical Evidence

We investigate German banks’ exposure to interest rate risk. In finance, higher demand for a risky asset is typically associated with higher expected return. However, employing a utility function which implies both risk‐averse and risk‐seeking behavior depending on the level of profits, we show that this relationship may get weaker and even change its sign at low profit levels. For the period 2005–14, we find not only the common positive relationship of higher expected returns and rising interest rate exposure but also that this relationship does become weaker with falling operative income, its sign eventually changing.     

Rate‐of‐return Parity in Experimental Asset Markets*

This paper applies experimental methods to evaluate the completeness of arbitrage and rate‐of‐return parity in simultaneous asset markets in which the assets are denominated in different currencies. Two assets, which return uncertain, but known, dividends in each trading period, are traded over 20 periods, after which the asset has no value. Results indicate that risk‐neutral rate‐of‐return parity is a strong predictor of relative asset prices when assets have common expected dividends and the expected dividends have common variances. The predictive power of risk‐neutral rate‐of‐return parity is reduced as the assets become differentiated.