高技术产业集聚对产业效率的影响

高技术产业集聚对产业效率具有一定的促进作用，但二者关系还受经济发展水平和对外开放程度的影响。基于1995—2016年我国内地多个省市高技术产业面板数据，构建交互项和面板门限回归模型，就经济发展和对外开放对高技术产业集聚与效率的影响进行实证检验。结果表明，高技术产业集聚与经济发展的交互项系数为负，与对外开的放交互项系数为正，对产业效率的影响存在显著的经济发展和对外开放门限效应。随着经济发展水平提升，高技术产业集聚对产业效率的正向影响会减弱，证明了威廉姆森假说在我国高技术产业中的存在性；随着对外开放程度提升，高技术产业集聚对产业效率的正向影响会增强，否定了开放性假说。     

A scenario analysis of energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society in the year 2020

Both energy requirements and energy intensity are crucial to the development of a society. This article uses an input–output model to assess how social and economic changes will affect energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society. According to the proposed input–output model, six scenarios were sequentially developed by introducing major impact factors, such as technological advancement, population, income, and urbanization, in order to project China's energy requirements. Based on 1997 data, the impact of economic and social changes on China's energy requirements in 2010 and 2020 were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that technological advancement has the strongest impact on energy intensity. Based on these findings, some related conclusions and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.     

中西部地区的经济发展与吸引外资:政策取向及其实效分析

自70年代末期以来，中国中西部地区的经济发展速度明显慢于东部沿海地区，外资注入较少是导致这种状况的一个重要原因。本文的前半部分，将分析造成这种差距的原因。今后十年，两个重要因素将引导更多的外资投向中西部地区。第一，中央和地方政府都在致力于通过投资环境和制定优惠政策，引导外资流入中西部地区。第二，随着中国加WTO，中国的外资政策更加开放，允许外同进入更多的领域和采用更加多样灵活的投资方式。本文的后一部分，将分析这两个方面的因素对中西部地区利用外资和地区经济发展的影响。     

Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China

Rising house prices in China have been of concern for investors and policymakers. Prices have risen substantially in the last decade, especially in large urban cities, and some economists have expressed concerns about the affordability of residential housing for young adults. This phenomenon becomes a major concern for policymakers, in terms of managing policies to balance the residential needs of individuals and the transition to a market economy. Theoretically, house prices ought to be linked to economic factors such as disposable income, availability of land to build and credit policy. However, it appears that traditional economic theories fail to appropriately explain house prices in China. We provide an explanation from the perspective of capital inflows into China. In terms of per capita remittances, China receives the highest inflow of foreign capital, and this may have a significant impact on risk adjusted returns in the Chinese market. To investigate this relationship, we use the vector error correction model to assess the impact of capital inflows on house prices. We find that capital inflows have a significant positive effect on house prices. The study makes important contributions to understanding the relationship between house prices and foreign remittances after controlling for other economic factors. China is a large economy. Because the impact of economic development in China has not been consistent across the country, we address the regional differences in the house price changes to capital inflows. Using regional data, we show that capital inflows have an asymmetric effect on the housing market across different provinces and cities of China. This has important implications for the development of economic policies in China that aim to provide fair access to residential housing for everyone. These findings are also relevant to investors in the housing market, whether investing for a personal residential home or as part of their diversified investment portfolio. It will also be informative to see how a reversal of capital inflows associated with tighter financing conditions in advanced countries will affect house prices in China.     

短期经济波动如何影响长期增长趋势?

短期经济波动如何影响长期经济平均增长趋势已成为一个新的研究热点。本文研究我国省际数据发现,波动性对长期增长趋势有显著影响:1978年前,波动性与平均增长呈负相关的特征在多数省份出现;1978年后,两者关系主要表现为正相关。本文通过建立内生随机增长模型,研究波动与增长之间的内在关联,提出了实际波动与增长关系的一种合理解释。模型的基本思想是:人力资本形成过程分为自然形成和主观形成,教育投入等决定主观形成过程的因素的多少是决定波动性如何影响长期经济增长方向的关键。当教育投入较高,以致主观过程占优时,波动性对长期增长趋势有正效应;反之,当自然过程占优时,波动性对平均增长有负效应。模型结论与建国后的发展历史相印证:1978年前,生产水平低,教育投入少,人力资本形成中干中学比例占优,因而波动性同增长呈负相关;1978年恢复高考后,教育正常化,生产发展,教育投入增加,因而波动性与增长逐渐呈现正相关。     

The impacts of China on economic growth: Evidence for Brazil,Chile, and Peru

This study empirically analyzes the direct impacts derived from the swift increase in exports to China (referred to as “the impact of China”) on the economic growth of three selected South American countries, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, during the commodity boom between 2001 and 2008. The results stemming from the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model suggest that the magnitude of China’s impact was less than 1 percent, although it ranged from the largest to the second largest impact among all trading partners for the three countries. The estimated balance-of-payments growth rate of domestic income is lower than the real growth rate of domestic income. This is because the growth rates of the export volumes were not sufficient even during the commodity boom, on account of the continued increasing trends of income elasticity of demand for imports. Furthermore, the income elasticities of demand for imports from China were especially high. Therefore, the three countries will continue to face further increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports as well as a stagnant growth rate of export volumes. Thus, the balance-of-payments position will continue to be the main growth constraint for these countries.     

Internationalisation of the Renminbi as an Investing and a Funding Currency: Analytics and Prospects

This paper develops a three‐currency model to study the determinants of the demand for assets and liabilites denominated in an international currency and to shed light on the prospects for the renminbi as a budding international currency. We show that interest rate differentials would be only one of the factors shaping the renminbi's position, while other factors, including the correlation between foreign countries' economic growth and their bilateral exchange rates against the renminbi, and the correlation between exchange rates of the renminbi with other international currencies, would also be important. A broad interpretation of these findings is that the renminbi will likely be attractive to investors from high‐income economies and fund‐raisers from emerging market economies.     

The impact of institutions on financial development: Evidence from East Asian countries

This paper examines the impact of institutions on regional financial development using a panel data model of 11 East Asian countries during 1996–2017. It divides the institutional factors into six economic factors and six legal‐political factors. The analysis demonstrates that the legal‐political institutional factors have a stronger impact on financial development than the economic institutional factors in East Asia. Improvement in institutional quality such as fiscal freedom, business freedom, control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law can promote financial development. Improvements of these institutional factors facilitate the ability of enterprises to allocate resources and improve the strength of business operations, thereby reducing transaction costs and making the financial operating environment fairer and more efficient. With the improvement of institutional factors, financial development will have more opportunities to develop better. Institutional impacts are more pronounced in the financial development in Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar than in the other countries such as China, Japan, Korea and Singapore.     

北京奥运会投资对中国经济的拉动影响——基于区域间投入产出模型的分析

本文建立了一个反映我国地区间经济联系及相互影响的区域间投入产出模型,在此基础上对北京与周边和我国其它区域的区域间经济联系进行了分析,然后测算奥运会投资对这三个区域经济的拉动影响。结果显示,我国区域之间的经济联系紧密,是地区经济发展的重要支撑因素。奥运会投资拉动北京经济2002—2007年均多增长约2个百分点;同时,奥运会投资具有较强的溢出效应,带动北京之外地区经济发展的作用大于对北京经济的贡献。     

全要素生产率是否已经成为中国地区经济差距的决定力量?

提高全要素生产率是推动经济高质量发展的关键,而创新驱动与新旧动能转换将加剧全要素生产率的空间不平衡,给区域协调发展带来新的压力.文章首次尝试将关系数据分析范式应用于地区经济差距研究,采用2001?2015年中国分省数据,利用二次指派程序实证考察全要素生产率与中国地区经济差距之间的关系.基于全样本、分时期和逐年的实证研究表明,全要素生产率对中国地区经济差距存在正向影响,但其影响强度远低于资本积累和城市化.在地区经济差距的诸多影响因素中,资本积累和城市化始终扮演主要角色.尽管全要素生产率对地区经济差距的影响强度呈现上升态势,但在短期内很难超越资本积累和城市化而成为中国地区经济差距的决定力量.因此,区域协调发展战略的实施需要更加注重发挥资本要素的空间均衡配置和城市化的空间均衡发展对于缩小地区经济差距的关键作用.同时在深化供给侧结构性改革进程中,应该更加积极地推动新动能的空间均衡发展,从而促使全要素生产率成为新时期区域经济协调发展的新动力.     

Public expenditure,income distribution,and growth in OECD countries

Economic growth and the several topics related to it have been studied by economists since their earliest publications. Two different approaches to this area can be found in Neoclassical and Endogenous growth models. The economic growth analysis has focused its attention on the factors that influence the growth of nations, such as fiscal policy or improvement of human capital. Nevertheless, it is also interesting to study the effects of income distribution on economic growth to determine if it has positive effects on growth. The aim of this paper is to study these effects. The authors will develop a theoretical model in which they will introduce public capital in a typical Cobb-Douglas production function. They will estimate OLS, GLS, and SUR fixed effects models for time series and cross-sectional data.     

Business cycles in a two-sector model of endogenous growth

Summary. This paper analyzes the impact of cyclical volatility on long-term economic growth: does growth increase or decrease with increased cyclical volatility? We construct a stochastic two-sector model of endogenous growth to analyze this question in detail. We will show that economic growth is higher in the presence of business cycles, since people devote more time to learning activities in an uncertain economic environment. Human capital is a hedge against future income uncertainty. Hence, the rate of economic growth will be higher in a stochastic environment. Based on a calibration of the model, we find that economic growth increases by 0.46%-point as a result of observed business cycle variability. When account is taken of the interaction between the model's general equilibrium and the cycle, welfare gains (measured in units of a permanent percentage increase in consumption) from eliminating business cycle volatility are approximately 1.87%. Received: January 25, 2000; revised version: November 3, 2000     

技术进步偏向、创新要素配置与经济韧性

基于2006—2020年中国内地31个省域面板数据，从影响传导机制、非线性特质角度探究技术进步偏向对经济韧性的影响效应。结果发现：①技术进步偏向对经济韧性具有显著正向影响，这一结论在稳健性与内生性检验中依然成立；②就作用机制而言，创新要素配置是影响技术进步偏向作用于经济韧性的重要机制；③门槛模型检验结果显示，技术进步偏向指数及其子维度与经济调整适应能力不存在非线性作用关系，但与经济创新转型能力具有非线性关系。因此，要合理引导技术发展方向，发挥技术进步偏向的积极作用；充分发挥“有效市场”和“有为政府”的合力作用，优化创新要素配置；以技术创新、理念革新与机制鼎新抵御潜在风险，增强经济韧性。     

The impact of competition,and economic globalization on the multinational diffusion of 3G mobile phones

To discover differences in technology diffusion of 3G mobile phones across countries, we investigate the impact of market factors, measured by competitive fractionalization, and economic globalization across countries using a multi-country diffusion model. We incorporate comprehensive socioeconomic and telecommunications data covering 35 geographically and economically diverse countries and control for covariates from literature. We used the Non-linear Mixed Modeling (NLMIXED) approach in SAS with pooled multi-country data to estimate a generalized Bass model taking into account unobserved heterogeneity in market saturation levels, a major source of inter-country differences. Our substantive findings are: the significance of the impact of competitive fractionalization on the likelihood of adoption and on the market potential; the significance of the impact of economic globalization on market growth. Our findings will aid international managers and regulators in their strategy and policy formulations. Finally, we demonstrate model validity by model fit and predictive accuracy.     

Economic growth and disease in the OLG model: The HIV/AIDS case

The aim of this paper is to provide an analysis of the impact of investment in health-policies on economic development. In order to do this, it is vital to bear in mind the fact that long-term economic growth is characterized by the interaction between the physical aspects of capital dynamics and the disease level in a developing country which lacks a financial market. The OLG model will be used in our analysis. Notice that the level of investment in health policies and disease management are one of the key variables of the model. It is, therefore, interesting to observe that an increase in capital may have either a direct or indirect impact on the stationary disease level and lead to effective prevention and disease control.     

Economic growth, international trade and air pollution: A decomposition analysis

This study analyzes the impact of economic growth and international trade on the level of air pollution. This is done by the estimation of the Structural Equation Model with two factors describing the structure of economic activity and air pollution intensity. It is further assumed that there is causal link between these two factors and that they are influenced by per capita income, international trade intensity and the Freedom House Index.The estimation results suggest that in the developing countries analyzed both international trade and per capita income lead to changes in the structure of economic activity and - as a consequence - to the increase in air pollution. In addition, the estimation results suggest that the impact of economic growth on air pollution intensity varies between the developing and developed countries. In the developing countries, this impact occurs through the change of the structure of economic activity, while in the developed countries, this impact is mainly direct and occurs through the sum of the scale effect and income effect. The positive sign of this impact suggests the dominance of the scale effect over the income effect.     

长江经济带生态文明水平影响因素探析及预测--基于VAR、GWR-BP神经网络组合模型

文章基于长江经济带108个城市2005-2015连续11年面板数据,运用BP神经网络模型预测各地理单元2020年生态文明水平;引入VAR模型从内部维度探析三大子系统的相互作用与贡献度;采用GWR-BP神经网络组合模型探讨外部维度下影响因子的空间溢出效应及预测。研究发现:①2005-2020年,长江经济带生态文明水平的区域差异依然显著;长三角城市群核心区经济边际增量减少;长江中游城市群逐渐由三省会组成的增长极向外辐射扩散;成渝城市群经济环境矛盾突出,制约其生态文明建设。②经济社会发展(ECO)对生态环境保护(ENV)和资源环境状况(RES)的冲击呈现出环境库兹涅茨曲线的变化趋势;生态环境保护(ENV)和资源环境状况(RES)对自身冲击的响应灵敏性不高,归因于长期污染物的累积;生态环境保护(ENV)与资源环境状况(RES)互相冲击出现了正对立的响应步调;生态环境保护(ENV)的变化很大程度上依赖于经济社会发展(ECO)。③净初级生产力、经济密度和人均道路面积对生态文明水平呈正向影响,山体高程与生态文明关系由负相关向正相关逐年演进;经济和交通刺激对生态文明的边际作用明显降低,一定地势条件与良好资源禀赋将有助于山地资源的正向转换。     

后危机时期国际金融格局的变动及其对美国经济的影响

2008年金融危机给世界经济带来了重大的影响,国际金融格局也发生了显著变化。本文主要分析了国际汇率体系、国际收支和国际储备体系、国别经济政策与国际间经济政策协调的变化。在后危机时期,美国经济也受国际金融格局变化的影响,包括美元中心地位的问题、“中心一外围”模式可持续性的问题和美国的国际经济领导权问题。本文得出的主要结论是：国际几种主要货币汇率波动增大,国际汇率体系弹性增大,国际收支总体失衡程度下降,美元为主的国际储备体系呈多元化趋势,先进经济体与新兴发展经济体的经济协调在加强,美元的霸权地位面临挑战,美国在国际分工中的中心地位在下降,美国在国际经济的主导地位也在逐渐下降,新兴经济体获得更多的话语权。     

我国区域能源效率及其影响因素研究

如何以较少的能源消耗实现现代化战略目标,是我国必须解决的问题。为了有效提高能源效率,我们有必要弄清楚我国能源效率现状及其影响因素之间的关系。本文首先把环境因素加入到考量能源效率的指标体系当中,对能源效率重新定义,接着通过构建结构方程模型,分析了经济结构、技术进步、制度（能源市场化）、交通运输、工业能源投资等方面对能源效率的影响程度,测算出能源效率与其影响因素之间的关系。通过实证研究发现：从各因素对能源效率的贡献比重来看,市场化程度和对外开放影响系数最大;其次是交通运输,技术进步;而经济结构对能源效率的影响系数呈反向关系,其中第二产业比重在经济结构中影响较大。说明市场化程度、对外开放程度、技术水平的提高和交通运输的提升都会促进我国能源效率的提高。技术进步因素对我国能源效率的正向作用有待于进一步加强。     

Socio-economic impact of a nuclear power plant: Almaraz (Spain)

An analysis is made of the socio-economic impact in a region in which a nuclear plant is decommissioned. The average age of nuclear power plants around the world is high, so that many are close to the end of their useful life. The issue of this impact will be important in a few years for various reasons, especially because those plants tend to be drivers of the economic activity in the areas in which they are located. The focus of this communication is on these socio-economic effects. Methodologically, socio-economic analysis uses a linear Social Accounting Matrix model that improves traditional Input–Output approaches by covering the induced effects generated from the receptors of income out to other sectors of the economy. The procedure is applied to an empirical analysis of the Almaraz Nuclear Power Plant in Spain. This was purposely chosen as sharing many of the general characteristics of nuclear plants around the world. If the plant is closed down, our results suggest that there will be a clear negative impact in terms of employment and added value generation.