Spatial Spillovers Revisited: Innovation,Human Capital and Local Dynamics

This symposium focuses on understanding key territorial‐level innovation trends and processes by country, region and technology. It questions various widely accepted assumptions, offers fresh perspectives, both conceptually and methodologically, and challenges a paradigm shift in the field of innovation and spatial dynamics. It consists of three articles analysing at different scales (urban, regional and national) the territorial dynamics of innovation and their determinants. The innovation process, with local symbiosis and spatial spillovers at its core, is analysed within the conceptual framework of national and regional innovation systems and regional economic development. Based on a discussion of spatial spillovers and the way they shape the evolutionary and symbiotic relationships between local agents and actors, including university, industry and local development agencies, the symposium highlights the relevance of this framework for a better understanding of the transformation of local economic development processes. It investigates the differences in the geography of innovation regarding different institutional settings, different systems of innovation, and different national innovation strategies. While addressing mainly the EU, the US, and emerging countries such as China and India, the contributions also highlight the critical role of current innovation policies from a general perspective. In so doing, the symposium recognizes a contrarian perspective that argues that contemporary information and communication technologies (ICTs) provide a way to leapfrog the dominant role of proximity in innovation processes, creating a complimentary rather than a substitution effect for more remote and peripheral places. That said, this symposium focuses primarily on an urban network view of the innovation process and proximal effects in this context.     

物流费用审核业务在欧美发展及在我国的机遇和挑战

通过分析物流费用审核业务在中国和欧美等发达国家开展情况,提出了在中国进行物流费用审核业务的可行性以及面临的挑战。研究过程中,大量地了解了欧美发达国家的物流费用审核外包状况及行业趋势,结合了笔者多年在某跨国企业从事物流费用核付业务的丰富工作经验,以及多年对国内企业物流费用核付业务的了解。分析了物流费用审核业务在国内开展的可行性以及可能面临的机遇和挑战。     

经济全球化和会计准则的国际趋同

世界经济的发展早已打破国界,经济已走向全球化。面对世界经济的急速变化,会计作为一种通用的商业语言,始终处于一个动态的、不断发展的过程中,最终走向了会计准则的国际趋同。2005年,欧盟27个成员国、澳大利亚、新西兰、俄罗斯等国约有7000家上市公司均遵循IFRSs编制财务报表。国际会计准则制定机构在2009年进行了改组,世界上越来越多的国家采用了国际财务报告准则(IFRSs)。2010年,IFRSs和美国GAAP之间的主要差异基本消失。我国财政部于2006年2月发布了39项企业会计准则,2010年又发布了《中国企业会计准则与国际财务报告准则持续趋同路线图》,中国会计准则也与IFRSs基本趋同。     

碳关税对世界经济和农产品贸易的影响研究

采用GTAP 8.0模拟欧盟、美国、日本分别和同时征收碳关税时对世界经济和产品贸易的影响。结果表明：碳关税将对世界经济均衡增长产生负面影响,受影响最大的是中国、金砖和东盟国家;碳关税将改变世界贸易结构和贸易利益格局,发达国家受益、发展中国家受损;碳关税将使世界农产品出口总额小幅下降,但对改善世界农产品贸易结构具有积极作用。     

Will Brexit speed a seismic shift in UK trade patterns?

• The UK's trade pattern has shifted significantly away from the EU since the 1990s. Our analysis suggests that this shift will continue in the decades to come, with the EU share in UK goods exports potentially slipping to around 35% by 2035. Shifts in relative prices from moves in tariff and especially non‐tariff barriers could lower the share further.
• Over 60% of UK goods exports went to the EU in the late 1990s but this has fallen to around 45%. Slow EU growth is partly to blame, with UK exports to the EU barely expanding since 2007. But our analysis also shows that a 1% rise in EU GDP leads to only around half the rise in UK exports to the EU that a 1% rise in GDP in the rest of the world induces in UK exports to non‐EU countries.
• Based on our findings and OE forecasts of long‐term growth in the EU and the world, the EU share of UK goods exports could fall to 37% by 2035 and around 30% by 2050 – back to its 1960 level. The share of services exports to the EU has held up better but is lower than for goods, at around 40%.
• Weakening growth of UK exports to the EU has taken place despite the development of the EU single market since the early 1990s. Indeed, based on our projections UK goods exports to the single market could drop below 5% of UK GDP by 2050. These projections make no allowance for Brexit effects, but the declining importance of exports to the EU single market could colour prospective Brexit negotiations.
• Simple income‐based projections of potential country shares in future UK exports suggest a further swing towards emerging countries (EM) in the decades ahead, especially China and India. Exports to EM could approach 40% of the total by 2035. A shift in the pattern of trade preferences and restrictions faced by the UK post‐Brexit could spark even larger shifts in the structure of UK exports.

     

Corporate environmental behaviour – a comparison between Nordic and US firms

The green challenge will be one of the key strategic issues facing businesses in the coming decades. Some argue that it is important for mankind as a whole. In this article the opinions of Nordic and US managers on environmental matters are investigated and compared. A questionnaire was sent to senior managers mainly in four industries: forest and paper, electronics, telecommunications and the printing industry. The results show that US managers perceive government laws and actions to be more stringent than Nordic managers do and the time to adapt was felt to be too short. There were no differences between the two regions in the degree of pro‐activeness and environmental innovation. However US managers reported a shortage of skilled labour. Managers both in the Nordic countries and the USA considered themselves to be ahead of their competitors in environmental actions. Nordic managers were much more positive toward the competitive effects and profitability of environmental measures than their US counterparts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Does sport affect the competitiveness of European Union countries? An analysis of the degree of innovation and GDP per capita using linear and QCA models

The sport industry has experienced great growth in recent years worldwide, and especially in the European Union (EU) countries. However, despite the role that this industry can play in improving the competitiveness of these countries (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and innovation performance), no studies have been found that analyse its influence. So, the main aim of this study is, firstly, to analyse the relationship between the innovation performance and the GDP per capita of EU countries, and, secondly, to find out how sport-related indicators and different innovation-related indicators influence the innovation performance and GDP per capita of the EU countries. To this end, two different methodologies have been used: hierarchical regression models and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). A total sample of 23 EU countries have been analysed. The results show that GDP per capita and innovation performance are highly correlated in a positive and significant way (0.76; p?<?.0001), and that the variables related to sport help explain the variance of these two variables, highlighting as necessary variable in both cases the growth in the sports sector (consistency >0.90). Finally, a number of practical implications are presented that can help policy makers to improve the competitiveness of EU countries.

     

合肥高新技术产业集聚发展现状分析与对策建议

目前,我国高新技术产业发展迅速,已经形成了一批集聚区,但与发达国家相比还存在很大差距,特别是在创新条件、投融资等发展环境方面。因此,进一步促进知识、技术、人才等在区域内集中,加快高新技术产业集聚发展是面向未来产业发展的方向,是培育战略性高新技术产业的重要举措。文章通过对合肥高新区高新技术产业集聚发展的现状和存在的问题进行分析,提出了几点对策建议。     

US HRM principles: cross-country comparisons and two case applications in India

This paper analyses the human resource management (HRM) systems of two fairly large, complex, technical organizations in India, embedded in specific external environments. The HRM practices of the two are compared with studies of practices in India and other developing countries. Further, the practices of the two organizations are compared utilizing a US HRM model. Findings are discussed with reference to relevant studies in India and the US. A complex view emerges from the analysis: (1) A mixed HRM model with US and Indian characteristics exists. (2) Differences in the two cases involve implementation and integration of HRM activities. (3) While hierarchy and paternalism are observed, adaptiveness and innovation are also evident. (4) Managerial characteristics and values (status, power, orientation) have an influential role. (5) Highlights among organizational characteristics are growth stage and professionals; and among external factors are management groups and their member interactions.     

创新空间扩散、集聚租金与经济高质量发展

基于新经济地理学和内生增长理论,构建了一个贸易自由度约束下的局域溢出模型,探究了创新的空间扩散与集聚影响经济高质量发展的作用机制。研究发现：对称均衡是模型的唯一内点均衡;当角点均衡时,存在唯一的贸易自由度支撑区间,此时,如果运输成本变小,则技能劳动力、R&D部门、制造业部门以及创新活动将变得更集聚,同时创新的空间扩散程度变大,外围区域在研发创新方面的劣势减弱;从增长和福利评价的角度看,在技能劳动力存量不变的条件下,创新的空间扩散对整个经济体的经济增长并没有影响,然而,当区域的经济增长源于可流动的技能劳动力集聚时,中心区域的技能劳动力和普通劳动力总是偏好集聚状态,当且仅当创新的空间扩散效应足够大或者集聚租金较小时,外围区域的普通劳动力偏好集聚状态。因此,降低运输成本,提高贸易自由度,有助于增大创新空间扩散效应,减小集聚租金,提高全域劳动力福利水平,从而促进经济的高质量发展。     

Ownership Concentration,Institutional Development and Firm Performance in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper analyzes the relationship of ownership concentration and firm performance in the context of different institutional environments in 28 Central and Eastern European transition economies. We focus on private, non‐listed firms that have been largely neglected by the extant literature. Using the BEEPS data for the period from 2002 to 2009 we find an inverted u‐shaped relation of ownership concentration and firm performance for those firms that operate in non‐EU‐member countries as well as those firms that are situated in less developed institutional systems. We interpret these findings as evidence for a classic agency problem in the lower part of the ownership concentration distribution that is dominated by a ‘private benefits of control’ problem with rising ownership concentration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全球向量自回归模型的理论、方法及其应用

全球向量自回归模型(GVAR)是将经典VAR模型加以扩展,使其能够用于分析世界各国或各地区之间经济联系的一种新的模型方法。本文阐述GVAR模型的理论、方法及其在中国经济分析中的应用。基于包含33个国家的GVAR模型,本文实证分析了中国与世界经济的相互影响。通过一般冲击反应函数方法分析中国需求冲击、美国需求冲击、美国债券市场价格和国际油价变动等冲击对中国和其他国家经济增长以及通货膨胀的传导机制、影响强度、持续时间等。结果显示,中国需求冲击对美国、欧元区、日本等主要工业化国家有显著影响,同时中国经济也受到美国债券价格变动较强烈的冲击。     

The Effect of Import Competition on Firm Productivity and Innovation: Does the Distance to Technology Frontier Matter?

How does foreign competition affect growth and innovation in China? Using our unique measures of proximity of Chinese firms and industries to the world technology frontier, we find that despite vast sectoral heterogeneity, Chinese manufacturing industries have undergone rapid technological upgrading over the period of 2000–06. The distance to the world production frontier of firms and industries plays an important role in shaping the nexus between the competition pressure from foreign imports and domestic firms' growth and innovation behaviour. Our results support the theoretical predictions of Aghion et al. (2005, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp. 701–728) that import competition stimulates the domestic firms' productivity growth and R&D expenditure if firms and their industries are close to the world frontier, but discourages such incentives for laggard firms and industries. The two forces highlighted by the model operate for imports under the ordinary‐trade regime, for collective and private firms, and for imports originated from high‐income countries. Our findings are robust after controlling the influence of foreign investment, the reverse causality of regressors and the short‐term business cycle fluctuations.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: A world with higher inflation

• Our world GDP growth forecasts are unchanged this month, at 2.6% for 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. But we expect a sizeable increase in inflation, to 3.3% in 2017 from an estimated 2.8% in 2016, as the effect of higher oil prices feeds through.
• Global indicators continue to point to a pick‐up in activity towards the end of last year, driven by stronger manufacturing activity. The global manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in almost three years in December, while the composite index – which includes services – was at a 13‐month high.
• World trade should be underpinned by stronger growth in the US (2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018), bolstered by the anticipated effects of President Trump's expansive fiscal policies. That said, uncertainties around our central forecast are unusually high given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration. Encouragingly, there are increasing signs that the tighter labour market is leading to a pick‐up in wage inflation in the US, which will support consumers.
• Given these reflationary trends, we expect two increases in the Federal funds rate this year and US bond yields are likely to continue to rise. The widening of interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone will drive the euro down to parity with the US dollar by end‐2017 for the first time since 2002.
• We have revised our Brexit assumptions this month. We now assume that the two‐year period of exit negotiations is followed by a transitional arrangement lasting 2–3 years. This would provide breathing space to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU.
• Emerging market growth on the whole will improve in 2017 but performance will differ across countries: Russia and Brazil will exit recession, but countries with weak balance of payments positions, high dollar debt and exposure to possible US protectionist actions will be at risk. In China, policymakers are moving to greater emphasis on reducing financial risks and less focus on the 6.5% GDP growth target for 2017. Continued action is also likely to dampen further depreciation of the CNY.

     

中国与印度贸易摩擦的原因及对策分析

随着中印双边贸易发展迅速,中国已成为印度的第二大贸易伙伴,印度也已成为中国在南亚地区最大的贸易伙伴。但印度对华贸易保护呈现愈演愈烈之势。在WTO成员国中,印度是金融危机以来对我国发起贸易救济案件最多的国家,两国间的贸易摩擦问题已不容忽视。本文通过对总贸易额、进出口商品构成、反倾销的比例等数据的比较,从宏观、政策和产业三个角度,分析了中印贸易摩擦存在的原因,并从政府、行业协会和进出口商会、企业的角度,制定出应对中印贸易摩擦的对策建议。     

产业集聚、市场集中对区域创新能力的作用——基于京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业的比较

产业集聚和市场集中是影响区域创新能力的重要因素。本文考察了京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业产业集聚与市场集中对区域技术创新能力的作用。实证分析结果表明：两大经济圈制造业集聚与市场集中均在一定程度上促进了区域创新能力的提升，但由于两大区域体制机制条件、创新环境、产业组织形态等不同，制造业产业集聚影响区域技术创新的程度、特征与路径也存在一定差别。两大经济圈应采取差异化集群发展方式，加快推进制造业集群升级，特别是应抢抓第四次工业革命发展机遇，提升制造业智能化水平，提升区域创新能力水平。     

基于全球经济一体化的我国企业战略联盟思考

随着全球经济一体化步伐的加快，加入全球经济一体化的进程对中国来说是机遇更是挑战，中国如何抓住有机机遇，开展与其他各国的竞争合作是我国经济发展中的重要课题。实施战略联盟是其有效选择。本文就中国企业实施战略联盟所应注意的有关问题进行了探讨。     

Who's most exposed to the world trade slowdown?

• ? A new indicator of exposure to the world trade slowdown points to Asian economies like Taiwan and Korea being most exposed, but also to significant vulnerability in Germany. Better insulated from the slowdown are the less open economies, such as the US, Brazil and India.
• ? Asian economies’ exposure is greater due to their generally high export orientations and strong trade integration with China – especially significant given the escalation of US‐China trade tensions. Likewise, Germany is highly export‐oriented but is also specialised in capital goods exports, which tend to weaken most in trade downturns.
• ? The indicator used is based on factors including trade openness, export specialisation in weakening sectors and exposure to spillovers from US‐China tariffs. It explains around 40% of the pattern of economic slowdown from 2017–2019 across a sample of key economies.

     

How culture-sensitive is HRM? A comparative analysis of practice in Chinese and UK companies

There has been some concern about the extent to which models and practices of HRM are capable of being transferred from one country to another. This emerged in the late 1970s as concern that Japanese ideas might be adopted uncritically by US companies, and during the 1980s as concern that these ideas, after recycling within the US, might not be totally appropriate for consumption in other parts of the world. Further urgency is added to the question by the pressures on many organizations to develop their businesses internationally, or globally – since this increasingly means they have to consider and establish HRM policies which can span different national systems and cultures.

This paper considers the problem through a direct comparison of practices in matched Chinese and UK companies in order to establish where variations occur both within and between countries. It is evident that there are considerable variations in the form of HRM in different settings, but also some surprising similarities. Thus, for example, there are more similarities in manpower planning systems between Chinese companies and some of the UK companies than there are between all the UK companies. In this case it can be concluded that these elements are not greatly affected by national (and assumed cultural) differences. On the other hand, there is a sharp difference between the UK and Chinese companies with regard to pay and reward systems, but much consistency within each country. This suggests that there may be deep-seated differences between the two countries with regard to attitudes towards rewards which will limit the transfer-ability of HRM ideas in this area.     

East European prospective members of the European Union under globalisation pressure

Central Eastern European countries will have to find their place in the EU confronted to globalisation challenge. Up to now, except Hungary, becoming an important EU partner in technology intensive industries, they are relying on their labour cost advantage and exchanging lower for higher quality goods. Accession to the EU, changing trading conditions and implying FDI concentration, will be a heavy challenge.