恋爱关系的辩证分析

矛盾是普遍存在的,从横向看是事事有矛盾,从纵向看是时时有矛盾。而每一个矛盾都有其特殊性即特殊矛盾。且矛盾是事情发展的动力,那么我们如何看待及解决这一特殊矛盾就成了关乎某一事件成败的关键。在这篇论文中我从恋人这一特殊矛盾入手,分析了作为恋人关系这一特殊矛盾体的统一性和斗争性,使恋人们能够更好地了解他们间的关系,从而能更好地处理他们间发生的矛盾。     

国际住房政策演变及其启示

1住房矛盾与国际住房政策的演变从全球来看,住房问题突出表现在三大矛盾,即住房供求总量矛盾、住房供求结构矛盾、住房分配公平与效率矛盾,住房政策的制定及其演变主要取决于当时面临的住房矛盾。工业化、城市化的快速推进,人口大规模向城市集聚,人口增长速度高于城市建设     

浅析解放思想提升县域农行的比较优势

与同业比,咸宁农行存在产品结构性矛盾、员工素质参差不齐矛盾、发展不平衡矛盾、短期行为与长期行为矛盾、金融生态环境低劣与自求快速发展的矛盾、内部管理制度不先进与区域市场经济发展不相适应的矛盾等等,这些制约了农行自身优势的提高,产品的比较竞争力不强。要解决这些矛盾必须解放思想,创新思维,提高农行的比较优势。     

灾后重建农村金融服务亟需强化

雪灾及其影响凸现了农村金融服务中的矛盾问题,如资金需求量激增与可用资金量减少之间的矛盾,借款人资质偏低与银行贷款门槛较高之间的矛盾,灾区贷款风险加大与银行风险管控要求之间的矛盾,灾后重建任务繁重与农村金融服务资源紧缺之间的矛盾,农业弱质产业特征与惠农配套政策支持不足之间的矛盾,解决这些矛盾需要从维护社会稳定、促进农村经济发展的高度加以认真思考。     

我国餐饮业特许连锁经营中急需解决的若干矛盾

以特许连锁的形式发展餐饮业是未来的一个趋势,与国际上许多著名的餐饮企业相比,中式餐饮的特许连锁经营尚处于初级阶段,在实际经营中存在着以下急需解决的矛盾:规模迅速扩大和集中管理之间的矛盾;工业化、标准化和手工工艺化之间的矛盾;产品组合的专一化和多元化之间的矛盾;技术传授和技术保密之间的矛盾;总部统一监管和加盟店自主经营之间的矛盾;品牌内部锤炼和品牌外部宣传之间的矛盾;连锁业务拓展和专业人才匮乏之间的矛盾.     

解决银行科技工作中现实矛盾的中庸之道

银行科技工作除了面临人员、组织、资金等一般性管理风险因素外,还因其专业性强而面临几大现实矛盾：金融市场的快速变化与后台技术改造在时间和成本上的矛盾,突发性业务需求与科技整体规划之间的矛盾,IT项目质量与时间和成本之间的矛盾,系统安全与操作便捷性之间的矛盾,总分行之间科技管理权限下放和集中上收之间的矛盾等。如何解决这些矛盾以达到和谐的至善境界？笔者将在下面简单谈谈自己的拙见。     

社会转型期人民内部利益矛盾的新特点与对策研究

社会和谐历来是中华民族的期盼和理想,而如今中国社会正处在前所未有的剧烈转型时期,既是发展机遇期,又是矛盾凸显期。人民内部利益矛盾是人民内部矛盾的主要表现形式,是制约其他矛盾存在和发展的基础性和主导性矛盾。正确分析转型期的利益矛盾,有针对性地制定化解利益矛盾的具体对策措施,是构建社会主义和谐社会的重要内容,也是加强党的执政能力建设的一个重大课题。     

我国农村信贷供给制度与农民金融需求的矛盾分析

本文通过对现阶段农村信贷供给制度和农民金融需求之间的矛盾分析,指出了农村信贷供求的非均衡可以外化为三大矛盾:即传统金融信贷安排与现代农村金融制度的矛盾;农民、农业特殊性与农村金融机盈利性、安全性之间的矛盾;农民日益增长的金融需求与农村资金"农转非"之间的矛盾;正是这些矛盾的困扰,阻碍了农村信贷市场的发育和农村经济的发展.同时本文有针对性地提出了缓解矛盾的对策建议.     

我国农村信贷供给制度与农民金融需求的矛盾分析

本文通过对现阶段农村信贷供给制度和农民金融需求之间的矛盾分析,指出了农村信贷供求的非均衡可以外化为三大矛盾:即传统金融信贷安排与现代农村金融制度的矛盾;农民、农业特殊性与农村金融机盈利性、安全性之间的矛盾;农民日益增长的金融需求与农村资金“农转非“之间的矛盾;正是这些矛盾的困扰,阻碍了农村信贷市场的发育和农村经济的发展。同时本文有针对性地提出了缓解矛盾的对策建议。     

从历史看对外战争与美国经济关系

资本主义高度社会化的生产力发展,与生产资料及产品被私人占有的资本主义生产关系之间产生了尖锐的矛盾,这个矛盾是资本主义的基本矛盾。这种生产力和生产关系之间的矛盾,会产生资本主义生产无限扩大的趋势和亿万劳动群众购买力相对缩小的矛盾。为了缓解这种矛盾资本主义国家所采用的主要途径是对外战争。在文中从历史资料出发就对外战争与美国经济的关系进行了分析。     

资产价格波动与货币政策调整问题研究

近年来,尤其是在2007年,中国股票和房地产等资产价格快速增长,给宏观调控带来了很大挑战,因此央行在调整货币政策时是否应考虑资产价格的波动,已成为学术界讨论的热点问题。在这种背景下,本文通过对资产价格渠道在货币政策传导中有效性的实证检验显示,货币政策对资产价格有着较大的影响力,然而货币政策通过资产价格渠道影响实体经济效果有限。基于此,本文不主张把资产价格纳入货币政策规则,但是央行在制定货币政策时应关注资产价格的波动。     

国债的货币化与通货膨胀效应分析

作为国债的财政赤字所引致的财政性货币发行显然是一种货币投放，当国债发行收入被作为财政支出安排时，就会对基础货币进而对货币乘数有所影响，起到一种创造货币的效应，由此构成对通货膨胀的一个推动。多年的实践表明，我国国债的发行并没有伴随着物价指数的持续上涨，这是由于多种因素共同作用的结果，但应该采取积极措施防范国债发行所带来的各种风险。     

Oil and stock market activity when prices go up and down: the case of the oil and gas industry

We examine the asymmetric effects of daily oil price changes on equity returns, market betas, oil betas, return variances, and trading volumes for the US oil and gas industry. The responses of stock returns associated with negative changes in oil prices are higher than that associated with positive changes in oil prices. Stock risk measured by market beta is influenced more due to oil price decreases than due to oil price increases. On the other hand, oil risk exposures (oil betas) and return variances are more influenced by oil price increases than oil price decreases. The results of our study indicate that oil and gas firm returns, market betas, oil betas, return variances respond asymmetrically to oil price changes. We also find that relative changes in oil prices along with firm-specific factors such as firm size, ROA, leverage, market-to-book ratio (MBR) are important in determining the effects of oil price changes on oil and gas firms’ returns, risks, and trading volumes.     

The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid‐1970s, analyze its determinants, and show that the linear model fits the data better.     

The Housing Market Effects of Local Home Purchase Restrictions: Evidence from Beijing

Home prices have surged in major Chinese cities, leading to concerns of asset price bubbles and housing affordability. The policy of home purchase restrictions (HPR) has been one of China’s harshest housing market interventions to squeeze out speculative demand and dampen the soaring home prices. Beijing was the first city to implement the HPR. Employing the regression discontinuity design technique, we find that Beijing’s HPR policy triggered a 17–24 % decrease in resale price, a drop in the price-to-rent ratio of about a quarter of its mean value, and a deep (1/2 to 3/4) reduction in the transaction volume of the for-sale market, with no significant change in the rent or the transaction volume of rental units. In submarkets where housing supply was less elastic, the effects of the HPR were larger in price and smaller in quantity, suggesting that wealthy buyers likely benefited more from the HPR. The scope of the analysis does not allow conclusions regarding the persistence or longevity of these effects.     

去伪存真:油价趋势与股票市场——来自“一带一路”35国的经验证据

油价波动深刻影响全球经济,严重时会造成全球股市动荡,甚至引发系统性金融风险。然而油价中的信息噪音严重阻碍国际油价对股票市场的预测效果。本文提出的移动平均法可有效减弱信息噪音,研究表明,本文基于移动平均法构建的油价趋势因子对“一带一路”沿线国家股票市场具有良好的样本内和样本外可预测性。进一步研究发现,国际油价波动对产油国和非产油国股票市场的影响存在非对称性。本文为国际油价冲击股票市场提供了新的有力证据,同时本文研究成果提示了油价风险,对维持我国股票市场稳定,保持金融稳定具有一定意义。     

Oil prices,US stock return,and the dependence between their quantiles

In this article, we examine the relationship between oil prices and US equities by proposing a novel quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach to construct estimates of the effect that the quantiles of oil price shocks have on the quantiles of the US stock return. This approach captures the dependence between the distributions of oil price shocks and the US stock return and uncovers two nuance features in the oil–stock relationship. First, large, negative oil price shocks (i.e. low oil price shock quantiles) can affect US equities positively when the US market is performing well (i.e. at high US return quantiles). Second, while negative oil price shocks could affect the US stock market, the influence of positive oil price shocks is weak, which suggests that the relationship between oil prices on the US equities is asymmetric.     

The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Global Real Economic Activity

This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity using a quarterly vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and allows one to incorporate an extraneous indicator of oil price uncertainty such as realized volatility that greatly improves the precision of the estimated uncertainty series. The estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock has negative effects on world industrial production all else equal. For example, it is shown that a doubling of oil price volatility is associated with a cumulative decline as high as 0.3 percentage points in world industrial production.     

我国国际资本流入期限结构错配:现状、影响与对策

2003年以来,在人民币升值预期和国内资产价格高涨的刺激下,大量短期资本通过各种途径进入我国,直接的结果就是我国国际资本流入的长短期期限结构发生了逆转。本文对我国短期资本流入的最优规模进行了分析,结果表明:国际资本流入过度"短期化"趋势的潜在风险不容忽视;在化解人民币升值压力和抑制资产价格泡沫化的同时,我国应加强对短期资本流入的真实性审核、实施差异化的国际融资政策.在必要的时候采取"托宾税"等短期资本流入管制措施。     

Oil Price Uncertainty

The theories of investment under uncertainty and real options predict that uncertainty about, for example, oil prices will tend to depress current investment. We reinvestigate the relationship between the price of oil and investment, focusing on the role of uncertainty about oil prices. We find that volatility in oil prices has had a negative and statistically significant effect on several measures of investment, durables consumption, and aggregate output. We also find that accounting for the effects of oil price volatility tends to exacerbate the negative dynamic response of economic activity to a negative oil price shock, while dampening the response to a positive oil price shock.