Developments in non-expected utility theories: an empirical study of risk aversion

This paper investigates different developments in non-expected utility theories. Our focus is to study the agent’s attitude towards risk in a context of monetary gambles. Based on simulated data of the “Deal or No Deal” TV game show, we first compare the performance of the expected utility model versus a loss-aversion model. We find that the loss-aversion model has a better performance compared to the expected utility model. We then study the attitude towards risk according to two parameters: the relative risk aversion coefficient defined over the value function and the probability weighting coefficient proposed by the Cumulative Prospect Theory. We find evidence for probability weighting being undertaken by contestants reflecting less risk aversion over large stakes. We also explore the performance of two models of rank-dependant utility: the Quiggin (1982) and the power probability weighting models. We find that the probability weighting coefficient is still significant for both models. Finally, we integrate initial wealth into the contestants’ preferences function and we show that the initial wealth level affects the estimates of risk attitudes.     

Self-employment and risk aversion—evidence from psychological test data

This paper investigates the effect of risk aversion on an individual's probability of being self-employed by using psychometric data from a large, population-based cohort of Finns born in 1966. We found that our measure of risk aversion, a facet of a basic temperament dimension, harm avoidance, has a significant negative effect on self-employment status. Since this measure is directly derived from a highly valid biosocial theory of normal personality variation (Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 44 (1987) 573) whose scalable dimensions manifest well before adulthood and remain stabile over lifetime, we argue that risk aversion is a psychological factor causative of the choice to become self-employed. ©2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.     

Risk aversion and business cycles: An empirical analysis

Unlike investors, who tend to maintain highly-diversified portfolios, private entrepreneurs usually lack access to complete risk-pooling for idiosyncratic risks, thus more directly internalize the cost of volatility. Risk aversion, however, modifies the optimal contract between entrepreneurs and lenders by incorporating the risk premium that entrepreneurs demand for the uninsurable risk: the private equity premium. Consequently, real shocks tend to be amplified as changes in entrepreneurs’ net worth affect the private equity premium and so the rental rate of capital, investment and output. This theoretical framework suggests that economies where the private entrepreneurial sector is a relatively larger, and therefore more vulnerable to uninsurable risk, all else equal, should present higher volatility. I test this prediction by (1) conducting a simple reduced-form analysis that shows that output volatility is negatively associated with the relative importance of the corporate vs. the privately-held sector; and (2) estimating the model's structural parameters. Intuitively, countries where private entrepreneurs are predominant and so risk aversion is likely to impose stronger impacts, positive risk aversion coefficients should be found. Results suggest that risk aversion is empirically more relevant for economies like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico and Thailand than for Canada, France, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S.     

Decision making under risk in Deal or No Deal

We analyse the choices of 399 contestants in the Australian version of the television game show Deal or No Deal. We calculate risk aversion bounds for each contestant, revealing considerable heterogeneity. We then estimate a structural stochastic choice model that captures the dynamic decision problem faced by contestants. To address individual heterogeneity, we nest the dynamic problem within the settings of both a random effects and a random coefficients probit model. Our structural model produces plausible estimates of risk aversion, confirms the role of individual heterogeneity and suggests that a model of stochastic choice is indeed appropriate. We find mixed evidence of greater risk aversion by females. We also examine generalizations to expected utility theory, finding that the rank‐dependent utility model adds non‐negligible explanatory power and indicates optimism in probability weighting. Finally, we test, but are unable to confirm, the existence of an endowment effect for lotteries. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are CEOs expected utility maximizers?

Are individuals expected utility maximizers? This question represents much more than academic curiosity. In a normative sense, at stake are the fundamental underpinnings of the bulk of the last half-century’s models of choice under uncertainty. From a positive perspective, the ubiquitous use of benefit-cost analysis across government agencies renders the expected utility maximization paradigm literally the only game in town. In this study, we advance the literature by exploring CEO’s preferences over small probability, high loss lotteries. Using undergraduate students as our experimental control group, we find that both our CEO and student subject pools exhibit frequent and large departures from expected utility theory. In addition, as the extreme payoffs become more likely CEOs exhibit greater aversion to risk. Our results suggest that use of the expected utility paradigm in decision making substantially underestimates society’s willingness to pay to reduce risk in small probability, high loss events.     

Equilibrium asset pricing with Epstein-Zin and loss-averse investors

We study multi-period equilibrium asset pricing in an economy with Epstein-Zin (EZ-) agents whose preferences for consumption are represented by recursive utility and with loss averse (LA-) agents who derive additional utility of gains and losses and are averse to losses. We propose an equilibrium gain-loss ratio for stocks and show that the LA-agents are more (less) risk averse than the EZ-agents if their degree of loss aversion is higher (lower) than this ratio. When all the agents have unitary relative risk aversion degree and elasticity of intertemporal substitution, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium and the market dominance of the EZ-agents in the long run. Finally, we extend our results to the case in which the LA-agents use probability weighting in their evaluation of gains and losses.     

Loss Aversion,Audit Risk Judgments,and Auditor Liability

Abstract

I investigate how different legal regimes affect auditor's effort and investors' investment decisions when the auditor is subject to probability weighting and loss aversion, which are two important characteristics of Prospect Theory. Probability weighting encourages an auditor to overrate the audit risk and the likelihood of damages leading to inflated audit fees which could help to explain the BigN audit-fee premium. With loss aversion, an auditor is sensitive to the risk of damage compensation and, thus, tends to exert excessive caution which also generates excessive audit fees. Consequently, investors may choose not to hire an auditor and, as a result, may forego an otherwise profitable investment. These effects are more intense with a strict liability regime than with a negligence rule because with the latter, the auditor is not held liable when due care has been exerted. This removes the risk of incurring losses. The paper highlights the robustness of the negligence regime when preferences are unobservable.     

Linear cumulative prospect theory with applications to portfolio selection and insurance demand

Abstract The present paper combines loss attitudes and linear utility by providing an axiomatic analysis of corresponding preferences in a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) framework. In a sense we derive a two-sided variant of Yaari’s dual theory, i.e., nonlinear probability weights in the presence of linear utility. The first important difference is that utility may have a kink at the status quo, which allows for the exhibition of loss aversion. Also, we may have different probability weighting functions for gains than for losses. We apply the model to both portfolio selection and insurance demand. Our results show that CPT with linear utility has more realistic implications than the dual theory since it implies only a weakened variant of plunging. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B08, 91B28, 91B30 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D81, G11, G22     

When Passion Fades: Disentangling the Temporal Dynamics of Entrepreneurial Passion for Founding

This study examines how and why entrepreneurial passion for founding changes over time. In particular, we propose that in the founding phase of a venture's lifecycle entrepreneurs’ founding identity centrality will remain stable over time. We also propose, however, that in our sample and time period studied, entrepreneurs’ intense positive feelings for founding will decrease over time. On the basis of theories of positive illusion, self‐regulation and role theory, we further hypothesize that venture idea change, change in role ambiguity and entrepreneurs’ feedback‐seeking behaviour are factors that help explain the rate of change in entrepreneurs’ intense positive feelings for founding. Using a three‐wave longitudinal research design, we find that among a sample of 112 entrepreneurs’ identity centrality does not change over time, whereas intense positive feelings for founding decrease over time. Moreover, the more entrepreneurs change their venture ideas, the weaker their decrease in intense positive feelings. Further, we show that entrepreneurs who frequently seek feedback suffer less from reduced positive feelings in response to higher increases in role ambiguity as compared to entrepreneurs who seek less feedback.     

Disappointment aversion in tournaments

Many experiments and field studies indicate that individuals have an asymmetric attitude towards gains versus losses. In this paper, we extend the canonic tournament model by assuming the workers' preferences exhibit disappointment aversion. First, we find the winning prize is first increasing and then decreasing in volatility and the losing prize shows the opposite. Furthermore, when the volatility exceeds a threshold, both the winning and losing prizes are reduced to zero. By contrast, there is no such kink for the risk aversion case. Finally, we find the piece rates always dominate rank-order tournaments when the workers are disappointment averse.     

Attitude towards risk,uncertainty, and fixed investment

We explore the relevance of the risk attitude of managers to the investment-uncertainty relation. Higher moments of the distribution of net profits are used to measure the risk premium of the firm, from which we derive a proxy for the risk aversion of managers. Using an unbalanced panel of Dutch listed firms, we find that in general a low degree of risk aversion coincides with a positive impact of demand uncertainty on investment. More specifically, we find that risk-averse firms respond to demand uncertainty by cutting investment, while the investment undertaken by risk-taking firms responds to demand uncertainty positively.     

Risk aversion for variational and multiple-prior preferences

The objective of this paper is to identify variational preferences and multiple-prior (maxmin) expected utility functions that exhibit aversion to risk under some probability measure from among the priors. Risk aversion has profound implications on agents’ choices and on market prices and allocations. Our approach to risk aversion relies on the theory of mean-independent risk of Werner (2009). We identify necessary and sufficient conditions for risk aversion of convex variational preferences and concave multiple-prior expected utilities. The conditions are stability of the cost function and of the set of probability priors, respectively, with respect to a probability measure. The two stability properties are new concepts. We show that cost functions defined by the relative entropy distance or other divergence distances have that property. Set of priors defined as cores of convex distortions of probability measures or neighborhoods in divergence distances have that property, too.     

Being pro-environmentally oriented SMEs: Understanding the entrepreneur's explicit and implicit power motives

The increased number of environmental problems caused by business activities put higher pressures on entrepreneurs to implement pro-environmental policies within their businesses. However, studies show that SMEs are less engaged with sustainable and pro-environmental policies. Hence, it is important to understand the barriers and drivers of implementing a pro-environmental strategy in SMEs from an entrepreneur's perspective. In a study with Indonesian SME owners, we find that environmental sustainability orientation (ESO) is driven by an entrepreneur's explicit and implicit power motives. Using polynomial regression with surface analysis, we also reveal that a high level of SME's ESO is affected by power motive discrepancy. We discuss implementations for policymakers, entrepreneurs, and educational programs in entrepreneurship.     

Can beneficial antecedents to self‐employment be detrimental to entrepreneurial performance?

We hypothesize that risk aversion, plasticity, stability, and locus of control have different effects on a person's decision to enter entrepreneurship and the person's entrepreneurial performance. Empirical results reveal that plasticity and risk tolerance have positive effects on selection but negative effects on income derived in entrepreneurship. Stability, on the other hand, deters entry but has an inversely u‐shaped relation with income. Locus of control has a positive impact on the decision but an insignificant effect on entrepreneurial income. These new insights may guide policy makers on how to help aspiring entrepreneurs overcome the negative effects of their personality traits.     

Using a dual system of reasoning in small businesses: Entrepreneurial decisions and subjective risk intelligence

This study aims at introducing subjective risk intelligence (SRI) in the context of small businesses to analyze how both rationality and intuition may influence the entrepreneurial decision-making process, particularly in affecting firms’ financial equilibrium.

SRI aggregates four dimensions: two positive attitudes (imaginative capability and problem-solving self-efficacy) and two detrimental ones (emotional stress vulnerability and negative attitude towards uncertainty). In particular, we argue that imaginative capability and emotional stress vulnerability refer to Kahneman’s System 1 (the intuitive), while problem-solving self-efficacy and negative attitude towards uncertainty appertain to System 2 (the rational).

We conducted an empirical investigation collecting data from an ad hoc survey administered to owners and managers of small businesses and their balance sheets over 2013–2017. After testing the proposed constructs’ reliability, we tested the influence that both Systems 1 and 2 have on SMEs’ financial structure through a pooled OLS regression estimator.

Results show that the intuitive and the rational components of risk intelligence affect entrepreneurs’ decision-making differently. The rational component seems to stimulate the entrepreneurial orientation to risk tolerance. The intuitive component limits the entrepreneurial propensity to take financial risks due to the desire for stability attached to this cognitive process. Accordingly, we highlight the importance of enhancing a balance between the two systems of thinking. Practical implications suggest that entrepreneurs with a dominant attitude towards problem-solving self-efficacy, or a positive attitude towards uncertainty, should invest in developing imaginative capabilities or emotional control, and vice versa.

     

How an Economic Recession Affects Qualitative Entrepreneurship: Focusing on the Entrepreneur's Exit Decision

This study analyzes how an economic recession affects entrepreneurship from a qualitative perspective. We define entrepreneur as a person who takes risks under uncertainty. Based on this definition, an entrepreneur's exit decision is modeled using real options theory to measure entrepreneur's willingness to accept uncertainty. We find that entrepreneurs who entered before a recession exit when their critical revenue stream reaches 0.16 times the average revenue stream value. The equivalent value for entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession is 0.33 times the average revenue stream. Furthermore, when uncertainty doubles, the exit probability of entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession is approximately 2.75 times higher than that of entrepreneurs who enter before recession. We conclude that the majority of entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession are qualitatively disadvantaged, which leads to the overall decrease in qualitative entrepreneurship. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal Two‐part Pricing under Cost Uncertainty

This paper examines the optimal two‐part pricing under cost uncertainty. We consider a risk‐averse monopolistic firm that is subject to a cost shock to its constant marginal cost of production. The firm uses two‐part pricing to sell its output to a continuum of heterogeneous consumers. We show that the global and marginal effects of risk aversion on the firm's optimal two‐part pricing are to raise the unit price and lower the fixed payment. We further show that an increase in the fixed cost of production induces the firm to raise (lower) the unit price and lower (raise) the fixed payment under decreasing (increasing) absolute risk aversion. The firm's optimal two‐part pricing is unaffected by changes in the fixed cost under constant absolute risk aversion. Finally, we show that a mean‐preserving spread increase in cost uncertainty induces the firm to raise the unit price and lower the fixed payment under either decreasing or constant absolute risk aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of investor’s varying risk aversion on the dynamics of asset price fluctuations

While investors’ responses to price changes and their price forecast have been identified as one of the major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in financial markets, our study shows that investors’ heterogeneous and dynamic risk aversion (DRA) preferences may play a more critical role in understanding the dynamics of asset price fluctuations. We allow an agent specific and time-dependent risk aversion index in a popular power utility function with constant relative risk aversion to construct our DRA model in which we made two key contributions. We developed an approximated closed-form price setting equation, providing a necessary framework for exploring the impact of various agents’ behaviors on the price dynamics. The dynamics of each agent’s risk aversion index is modeled by a bounded random walk with a constant variance, and such dynamics is incorporated in the price formula to form our DRA model. We show numerically that our model reproduces most of the “stylized” facts observed in the real data, suggesting that dynamic risk aversion is an important mechanism for understanding the dynamics of the financial market and the resultant financial time series.     

Revisiting the Curvilinear Relation Between Job Insecurity and Work Withdrawal: The Moderating Role of Achievement Orientation and Risk Aversion

Although speculation of the curvilinear relations between job insecurity and job‐related behaviors is theoretically appealing, the empirical evidence has been sparse. The purpose of this study was to contribute to the literature on job insecurity and work withdrawal behaviors by reexamining their curvilinear relation, and the effects of achievement orientation and propensity for risk aversion on this U‐shaped relationship. Using samples with both secure and insecure job situations, we hypothesized that job insecurity could have both positive and negative effects on work withdrawal simultaneously; however, one of these effects could dominate the other at different levels of job insecurity. That is, a U shape would best describe such a relationship, since a moderate level of job insecurity would result in the lowest level of work withdrawal. Furthermore, we hypothesized that achievement orientation and propensity for risk aversion moderates this relationship in such a way that the curvilinear relationship is weaker (flattened curve) when the individual's achievement orientation is high, and that the curvilinear relationship is stronger (steep curve) when the individual's propensity for risk aversion is high. Results show that these hypotheses were supported; implications and limitations of the study are discussed. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Can risk aversion explain schooling attainments? Evidence from Italy

Using unique Italian panel data, in which individual differences in behavior toward risk are measured from answers to a lottery question, we investigate if (and to what extent) risk aversion can explain differences in schooling attainments. We formulate the schooling decision process as a reduced-form dynamic discrete choice, which we estimate flexibly. We analyze how grade transition from one level to the next varies with preference heterogeneity (risk aversion), parental human capital, socioeconomic variables and persistent unobserved (to the econometrician) heterogeneity. We find that differences in attitudes toward risk account for a modest portion of the probability of entering higher education.