Mavericks and free trade: Chile's pivotal role in the formation of the FTAA

Bilateral and regional trade agreements are gaining importance as the World Trade Organization's negotiations sputter. The future of regional integration agreements (RIAs) depends not only on large countries such as the United States and Brazil, but also on small mavericks like Chile. This article examines the generic roles played by different players in the game to form the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), including Chile's pivotal role in helping the United States advance its objective of creating the FTAA in the face of Brazilian resistance. Managers need to understand the effect of realignment of trade arrangements on their sources of competitive advantage and adopt strategies to preempt their erosion. Other small countries that exist in the shadows of large hegemons that dominate developing‐country RIAs might benefit from lessons provided by Chile. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Multinationals and the investment provisions of the nafta

The foreign direct investment (FDI) provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are examined in light of a worldwide trend toward liberalization of the policy environment for multinational firms. We first examine the rationale for entering into international investment negotiations from the perspective of the three signatories—Canada, Mexico, and the United States—and then analyze the accomplishments embodied in the resulting investment provisions. We also briefly address areas where these provisions could be strengthened and that may be on the agenda of future international trade and investment negotiations, whether in other fora or during negotiations involving accession of new member states to the NAFTA.     

Multilateral,Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post‐Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post‐Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non‐member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.     

Trade liberalization,free trade agreements,and the value of firms: Stock market evidence from Singapore

We examine the effects of the United States–Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the value of firms listed in the Singapore Exchange using event study analysis. Despite the predictability of the FTA negotiations, we find that one event – the removal of the last obstacle to the free trade deal in January 2003 – increases the value of firms in some industries by 1–11% on average. These results indicate that trade liberalization and FTAs do increase the value of firms.     

The state of North American free trade

In 1989, a Free Trade Agreement was signed between the United States and Canada. This past June, at a meeting between the presidents of the United States and Mexico, agreement was reached to begin negotiations toward a similar agreement between their countries. Could this be the impetus for a trilateral agreement among the three countries and, perhaps, even creation of a North American Common Market?     

中美经贸摩擦背景下维系中美科创合作关系的对策建议

自2018年以来,持续升级的中美经贸摩擦给中美科创合作带来了严重冲击。本文首先从当前中美科创合作形势出发,全面总结了当前中美科创合作面临的直接冲击。其次通过剖析中美两国在未来大国竞争格局下的战略利益,分析了两国科创产业的长期合作趋势。最后,本文提出了中国在当前形势下维系中美科创合作关系的可行性对策建议,以期为中国制定对美科技、经济和外交等方面的竞合战略提供有益的借鉴和参考。     

The Concurrent Impact of Cultural,Political, and Spatial Distances on International Mergers and Acquisitions

This paper explores the concurrent effects of cultural, political, and spatial distances on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) flows occurring between any two countries belonging to the whole European Union (27 States) or to the European Neighbours group (16 States) over the period 2000–11. In the econometric analysis, based on zero‐inflated models, we simultaneously estimate the probability of engaging in a cross‐border M&A and the intensity of the deals. This allows us to adequately model the two different mechanisms which may result in the absence of deals in the cross‐border bilateral M&A transactions. The absence of deals may be due to either the lack of any transactions or unsuccessful negotiations. Taking into account the effect of population, gross domestic product, technological capital, financial conditions and quality of the institutions, we find robust evidence that the multi‐dimensional distance between two countries negatively affects both the probability and the intensity of M&A deals.     

Emerging Powers in WTO Negotiations: The Domestic Sources of Trade Policy Preferences

In the current round of multilateral trade liberalization, emerging powers such as Brazil and India created the G-20 coalition and refused to accept further tariff rate reductions for industrial products before the United States and the European Union made reciprocal concessions in agriculture. This article examines how and why Brazil and India have taken a more offensive and proactive position at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Following Putnam's two-level games approach, I focus on domestic factors and specifically on interest groups to explain actors' policy preferences in WTO negotiations. From a theoretical perspective, the case studies Brazil and India lend credit to the literature discussing the impact of powerful, sector-specific interest groups on governments' trade policy preferences. From an empirical perspective, the findings show how these two countries translated these demands into government positions and influenced WTO outcomes as agenda-setters and coalition builders.     

Brazil and Mexico—Partners in sowing a free trade area of the Americas

The second half of 2000 brought renewed interest to the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). This hemispheric economic integration initiative presents numerous opportunities and challenges for each of the 34 countries involved in unifying markets across the Americas. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Mercosur, the region's two largest trading blocs, play a vital role in any attempt to integrate Latin American markets. Integration under Mercosur has strengthened the position of member countries—especially Brazil, which is a choice location for foreign direct investment and has realized a significant growth in extra‐Mercosur trade. The newly elected Mexican president, Vicente Fox, has demonstrated a strong desire to bring Mexico to the forefront of hemispheric trade negotiations and brings a new dynamic to integration of Latin American markets and to the FTAA initiative. This article elaborates on the role of the two largest Latin American economies and the United States in the creation and solidification of a hemispheric trading bloc in the Americas. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

How do countries respond to anti‐dumping filings? Dispute settlement and retaliatory anti‐dumping

Empirical studies have found that countries may respond strategically to the anti‐dumping petition filed against their exporters through their own retaliatory actions. Although most previous studies have focused on retaliatory anti‐dumping filings, in this paper we explore another potential avenue for strategic response—filing a complaint under the World Trade Organization's (WTO ) dispute settlement understanding. Using a panel of global anti‐dumping filings between 1995 and 2011, we analyse under what conditions countries will choose to retaliate through either an anti‐dumping petition or a WTO dispute, and to what degree these two strategies are complementary or act as substitutes. We find statistical evidence that countries are more likely to file a WTO dispute when they have also filed a retaliatory anti‐dumping petition, suggesting that these two strategies may be complementary.     

Trade Negotiations in the Americas and What They Mean for You

The United States is engaged in two huge trade negotiations—the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership—that will have a profound impact on our economy and on the world trade system. These agreements can be an important template for new rules governing world trade, and they address some important new areas, such as regulatory issues. However, if they are to be a good template, U.S. negotiators have to alter some of their proposals, and these new agreements have to prohibit predatory trade practices, such as currency manipulation.     

Market access implications of non‐tariff measures: Estimates for four developed country markets

We quantify the effects of non‐tariff measures on the extensive margin of trade, examining the number of countries exporting particular products to Canada, the European Union, New Zealand and the United States. We find that non‐tariff measures that impose a conformity requirement, that is, testing, certification or inspection, will reduce the number of countries exporting to these markets. Conformity requirements imposed for sanitary or phytosanitary reasons have the largest effect in Canada, reducing the number of exporting countries by 47% compared to the situation where no compliance requirement is imposed. Conformity requirements imposed for other reasons covered by the WTO Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade have the largest effect in Canada and New Zealand, reducing the number of exporting countries by 27% compared to the situation where no compliance requirement is imposed. However, we generally find a statistically significant positive effect for nontariff measures that do not impose a compliance burden, suggesting that such measures may facilitate trade.     

The Future of Privacy: A Consumer‐Oriented Approach to Managing Personal Data Online

Beginning with Facebook's recent controversial “tweaks” to its privacy policy and its promise to support users against employers and others who attempt to compel users to divulge passwords, we critically review European Union (EU) and US digital privacy initiatives. Whereas the EU proposal relies on legislative regulation, the United States proposes industry self‐regulation partially enforceable by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). We conclude that not only do the sharply differing EU and US approaches present significant problems of global digital interoperability, but neither proposal promises to result in practical and feasible consumer protection, at least not in the near term. Moreover, the EU proposal poses serious threats to the profitability of digital commerce. As an alternative, we propose a “third approach,” empowering the individual digital consumer/user through a personal online strategy we call “wide‐open privacy,” which provides security without sacrificing the transformative economic, cultural, and personal benefits of the Internet. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sourcing patterns of export‐platform foreign affiliates: The case of Japanese affiliates in Mexico

This study investigates the sourcing patterns of Japanese export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico, which mainly export to the United States and Canada. We propose a novel approach to estimate intermediate input elasticities of exports by sourcing country. We find that, on average, Japanese export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico source intermediate inputs from third countries, including the United States and Canada, rather than from Japan and Mexico, suggesting that Japanese export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico are mainly integrated into the vertical production networks back and forth between Mexico, the United States and Canada. In turn, Japanese foreign affiliates selling domestically in Mexico source intermediate inputs not only within the North American Free Trade Agreement countries but also from Japan. In addition, we find that export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico use more labour‐intensive production than do foreign affiliates selling domestically in Mexico. This suggests that saving labour costs is one of the motives for export‐platform foreign direct investment in Mexico.     

Explaining National Differences in the Size and Industry Distribution Employment

What forces determine national differences in the size and industry distribution of employment? We stress the role of the economic policy environment as determined by business taxes, employment security laws, credit market regulations, the national pension system, wage-setting institutions and the size of the public sector. We characterize these aspects of the economic environment in Sweden prior to 1990–91 and compare them to the situation in other European countries and the United States. Our characterization and international comparisons show that Swedish policies and institutions strongly disfavored less capital-intensive firms, smaller firms, entry by new firms, and individual and family ownership of business.

We also compile evidence that these forces affect outcomes. Taking the U.S. industry distribution as a benchmark that reflects a comparatively neutral set of policies and institutions, Sweden's employment distribution in the mid-1980s is sharply tilted away from low-wage industries and industries with greater employment shares for smaller firms and establishments. Compared to other European countries, Sweden has an unusually high share of employment in large firms. Furthermore, the Swedish rate of self- employment in the 1970s and 1980s is the lowest among all OECD countries.

The institutional and policy factors emphasized by our study differ greatly across countries. This fact suggests that our approach can be fruitfully applied to other studies of national differences in industry and size structures and their evolution over time. As an example, the tax reform wave of the 1980s – which largely evened out cross-country differences in corporate taxation among OECD countries – offers some basis for projecting a movement towards greater similarity among wealthy countries in the size and industry distribution of employment.

     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU – based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals – delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries.     

How Safe Are the Harbors?

Abstract

With the growth of e-commerce has come the need for businesses to provide protection of personal, private data collected from internet users and consumers. The United States has favored a policy of industry self-regulation, while the European Union (EU) has responded to its consumer demands for privacy protection regulations and enforcement. Faced with the critical need for a middle ground, the US has proposed “Safe Harbor Privacy Principles” as a means of compromise with the EU. This article explores the market context of the Safe Harbor Principles, the European reaction, and the probable impact on businesses.     

Confrontation analyses of United States-Soviet grain negotiations

From 1976 until 1991, the government of the former Soviet Union bought wheat and coarse grains grown in the United States, from private grain companies, under the terms of Long Term Agreements (LTAs). The author conducted interviews with U.S. and Soviet government officials actively involved in the negotiations to establish the terms of those LTAs. Analyses of the negotiations were carried out using confrontation theory. The subsequent analysis shows how the changing issues, actors and positions over time affected the grain trading relationship between the two countries.     

Decision-making process in Japan

As governments at last get down to business in the Tokyo Round of GATT negotiations, much is going to depend on the extent to which agreement is reached between the European Community, Japan and the United States. In this connection, it is important that people should understand the ways of the Japanese, particularly their decision-making process which somewhat seems to inhibit their ability to negotiate.     

EU State Aid Policy and the Politics of External Trade Relations

European Union (EU) state aid policy has an oft-overlooked but politically-charged external dimension that is most clearly witnessed in the linkage with external trade relations. The article seeks to illuminate the issues and potential problems raised by this state aid-trade linkage. When this linkage is made, the EU engages in an array of complex international interactions through which it may pursue two politically-contentious procedures: countervailing duties or dispute settlement. The article argues that an understanding of the EU’s role in these complex interactions must take into account the Union’s institutional landscape and the competing preferences of different private interests. When deciding to impose countervailing duties against foreign state aids (subsidies), private interests play a significant role in initiating investigations and can use their access to EU institutions to encourage the imposition of such measures. While a variety of factors help to explain why the EU prefers pursuing countervailing duties, the Union also actively uses the World Trade Organization’s formal dispute settlement mechanism. Under this alternative, private interests again play an important role, pursuing varying strategies depending on their preferences. The most important determinant of a firm’s preference to pursue countervailing duties or the dispute settlement mechanism appears to be the extent to which the firm is concerned with restoring competition in their home market or with restoring competition in multiple/global markets.