Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

An Asian Currency Unit: Simulations for Its Effects on East Asia

An Asian currency unit (ACU) is necessary to deepen Asian financial markets and to convert national currencies into a single monetary policy. However, the experiences of the European Currency Unit and the European Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in 1992–93 have indicated the danger of the so‐called gradual approach. This study evaluates the effects of welfare should the ACU indicator become a long‐term constraint of the People's Republic of China and Japan, the big two in East Asia. Our results indicate that the constraints of countries’ own baskets (e.g. real effective exchange rates) are still better before the launch of a true single currency. That is, pegging to an ACU indicator could hardly be sustained in the long‐run if East Asian countries have not reached a consensus about a regional monetary union.     

Australian Exports of Dairy Products

Abstract

Exports of dairy products are becoming increasingly important in terms of export earnings for Australia. The industry is the fourth highest foreign exchange earner compared to all Australia's food exports. However, Australian exports of dairy products account for about 67 per cent of the total Australian production of dairy products, and about 13 per cent of total world exports of dairy products. About 68 per cent of Australian dairy products exports are sold on Asian markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenging issues and opportunities for Australian exports of dairy products on world markets and to identify potential and emerging export markets for Australian dairy products. Australia is highly restricted on its access to world dairy product markets by the impact of export subsidies and other trade barriers of overseas markets. The current economic and political crises in Asia are also not favourable to maintain export sales on some of the Asian markets. The export support scheme in Australia has made exporting attractive relative to domestic sales. But it is anticipated that the termination of the scheme after June 2000, will reduce production and exports by 6 and 20 per cent, respectively in the short run. However, in the long run, resources will be efficiently used without government intervention and Australian dairy products will also be competitive on the domestic market. There is scope for greater market opportunities in the emerging markets in Asia and other parts of the world for Australian dairy products. Australia will also benefit from the agreement on international trade that directs exporting countries to reduce export subsidy and remove nontariff trade barriers on exports of dairy products. Australia should implement appropriate measures to inaease the milk yield per cow, to improve the quality of dairy products and to identify the need for market promotion and research in order to increase the volume of dairy product exports on world markets, especially in Asia and other potential markets such as Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas.     

The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?

This paper examines how China's emergence as a major trading nation is affecting export performance of its East Asian neighbours. Following a stage‐setting overview of trends and patterns of China's export performance, it probes China competition in third country markets and emerging patterns of imports. The East Asian export experience is examined in a wider global context against the backdrop of the ongoing process of global production sharing. The findings indicate that the ‘China threat’ has been vastly exaggerated in the contemporary policy debate. China's rapid market penetration in traditional labour‐intensive manufactured goods has occurred mostly at the expense of the high‐wage East Asian countries, without crowding‐out the export opportunities of low‐wage countries in the region. More importantly, China's rapid integration into global production networks as a major assembly centre has created new opportunities for the other East Asian countries to engage in various segments of the value chain in line with their comparative advantage.     

FDI,Growth and the Asian Financial Crisis: The Experience of Selected Asian Countries

This paper studies the trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into selected South‐East Asian and East Asian economies after the Asian crisis. Empirical evidence indicates that South‐East and East Asian economies are recovering from the Asian crisis with strong output growth driven largely by export growth. However, output growth in the post‐crisis period is also accompanied by rising unemployment rates, growing government deficits, and declining FDI inflows into the South‐East Asian region. The declining FDI inflows into South‐East Asia after the crisis is of concern, as our empirical results show that FDI is important for output growth in the region. Our results also suggest that there might have been structural changes in the regional economies that could have led to a downward shift in the output growth of Asian economies in the post‐crisis period. This raises the issue of the sustainability of their output growth in the post‐crisis period.     

Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding

The sizeable hoarding of international reserves by several East Asian countries has been frequently attributed to a modern version of monetary mercantilism – hoarding international reserves in order to improve competitiveness. From a long‐run perspective, manufacturing exporters in East Asia adopted ‘financial’ mercantilism – subsidising the cost of capital – during decades of high growth. They switched to hoarding large international reserves when growth faltered, making it harder to disentangle the monetary mercantilism from the precautionary response to the heritage of past financial mercantilism. Monetary mercantilism also lowers the cost of hoarding, but may be associated with negative externalities leading to competitive hoarding. From this viewpoint, this paper makes three observations on the East Asian reserve accumulation. First, the recent large hoarding of reserves in Japan and Korea occurred in the aftermath of the growth strategy that combined export promotion and credit subsidisation (financial mercantilism). Second, whether the ultimate motive is mercantilist or precautionary, the ongoing reserve hoarding in Asia contains an element of competitive hoarding, which is likely to have negative externalities among countries involved. Finally, China's hoarding of reserves partly reflects the precaution against the financial fragility that is likely to follow the slowing of economic growth.     

The Trade Effects of US Anti‐dumping Actions against China Post‐WTO Entry

Since China's entry into the WTO, US anti‐dumping (AD) actions against China have increased, particularly with respect to multiple petitions. Distinguishing between US single and multiple petitions, we examine the trade effects of US AD actions against China based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data. The results show that a US single petition investigation greatly restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also causes more significant import diversion from non‐named countries. In the short run, a preliminary AD duty imposed on China via a US multiple petition not only restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also prevents trade diversion from non‐named countries. In the long run, a final AD duty on China resulting from a US multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on China and causes US import diversion from non‐named countries. Thus, a final AD duty imposed on China following a US multiple petition not only harms China's exports but also fails to help the US achieve import substitution. Furthermore, we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary AD duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty.     

简析特保条款及我国应采取的对策

《中国入世议定书》中的特保条款是针对我国的一种歧视性条款，它其实是针对东欧三国特保条款的继续和“发展”，同时它也是美国《1974年贸易法》406条款的移植和延伸。这一条款的设立给我国的经济发展带来了一些负面影响。针对这一不利条款，本文分析了我国应采取的对策，以减少该条款所带来的负面影响。     

Changing facets of leadership in East Asia: globalization,innovation and performance in Japan,South Korea and China

ABSTRACT

Japan, South Korea and China are the three juggernauts of the East Asian economy. In gross domestic product terms, China is the world’s second largest economy, Japan the third and South Korea the eleventh. Also, Japan and South Korea are the only two of the OECD’s prestigious Development Assistance Committee members from Asia, providing a large combined annual budget to developing countries, and the only two Asian countries of the seven-member 50–20 Club with members with a population of 50 million or more and a per capita GDP of US$20,000 or more. Many studies have offered explanations of this Asian economic and corporate success, although few have attempted to explain the leadership styles in these three countries. Globalization has also changed these economies enormously, leading to the possible convergence with universalism forces and commensurate globalization of their leadership styles. This collection, therefore, presents some of the most recent findings of leadership studies on Japan, South Korea and China in light of this.     

The internationalization of the RMB: a perspective vis a vis East Asian economic and financial integration

The People’s Republic of China has achieved remarkable progress in the internationalization of the RMB by introducing a number of concrete measures to boost the RMB’s status on the world stage since 2009. The ongoing RMB internationalization is being promoted under the background of deepening economic and financial integration in East Asia. In this article, we attempt to analyse RMB internationalization from the perspective of East Asian regional integration. We hypothesize that East Asian regional integration lays a broad foundation for China to push RMB internationalization forward. An internationalized RMB, we argue, will play more important roles in the process of East Asian regionalization. Thus, RMB regionalization could be an important and necessary step of internationalization. The Chinese authorities should not only push the RMB toward internationalization under China’s framework of domestic financial system reform, but they should also integrate RMB internationalization into the process of East Asian economic and financial integration. Therefore, a win–win strategy of RMB internationalization for both China and East Asian countries is needed.     

区域贸易协定的缔结降低了成员国的反倾销威胁吗——以中国为例

采用1999-2009年跨国面板数据,研究了中国缔结的几个区域贸易协定(RTAs)对成员国间反倾销的影响。结果表明,区域贸易协定的缔结强化了缔约国对其他成员国的反倾销申诉。由于与协定成员国的贸易结构相似、产品结构相同,区域贸易协定的缔结使得中国相对于其他成员国更容易遭遇缔约国的反倾销申诉。文章同时研究了经常项目收支状况、汇率以及GDP增长率对反倾销申诉的影响,结果表明:经常项目收支逆差、货币升值往往会加剧反倾销申诉,而GDP增长率对反倾销申诉无显著影响。本文的研究对于理解中国遭受反倾销的原因以及做好反倾销预警与应对机制具有一定的现实意义。     

Accounting for Stylised Facts about Recent Anti‐dumping: Retaliation and Innovation

Recent work has found certain stylised facts about anti‐dumping (AD) actions. (i) AD actions are mostly between industrial and developing countries; (ii) developing countries use AD to retaliate against industrial countries; and (iii) AD is concentrated in R&D‐intensive industries. This study develops an analytical framework that can account for these empirical findings. The model suggests that market expansions and/or improvement in R&D capability in the South are essential in avoiding AD wars with the North. Interestingly, stricter enforcement of intellectual property rights in the South has little effect on stopping AD wars between the North and the South.     

Yen or Yuan? The law of one price and economic integration in Asia

Using highly comparable local retail prices of 146 goods and services across 18 Asian countries over 1990–2014, we analyse price dispersion and test convergence to the law of one price (LOP ) for these prices around three price benchmarks—Asia‐average, Japan and China prices—to gain insight about market integration in overall Asia as well relative integration of Asian economies to Japan and China. Cross‐Asia price dispersion around China‐price benchmark, for both tradables and non‐tradables, diminishes significantly over the sample period whereas that around Japan‐price benchmark increases considerably, particularly after the 2008 crisis. There is convergence to the LOP for about half of goods and services in China‐ and Asia‐average price benchmarks. The percentage of convergent prices is significantly smaller in Japan‐price benchmark. Direct estimates of the convergence speed parameter also confirm these observations. Overall, our results show evidence of increasing economic integration in Asia in the last two decades. The process of price convergence appears to be driven by the emergence of China as the centre of economic gravity in the region. There is much room for improvement as economic integration in Asia is still far below that in Europe in the 1990s or USA in the 1980s.     

Will the Renminbi Emerge as an International Reserve Currency?

The global reserve system can be strengthened by increasing the role of alternative currencies. A gradual evolution to a multicurrency system reduces pressure on a single reserve currency issuer from an ever‐growing balance‐of‐payments deficit. It also allows countries to better diversify their foreign exchange holdings. Given the continuing strong economic growth in the China and its growing influence on the world economy, the renminbi will likely emerge as a new international currency. However, this is contingent on the China accepting a more convertible capital account and developing an efficient financial system. Internationalising the renminbi will likely be a gradual and drawn‐out process. Simulations show that, with greater convertibility, the renminbi could gradually become an international currency within Asia and beyond – sharing from 3 to 12 per cent of international reserves by 2035.     

中国制造业在东亚地区的实力分析

随着中国工业化进程的不断推进,世界各国,特别是东亚国家对中国制造业的崛起极为关注。在此背景下,必须对中国制造业有一个客观评价,既要看到其优势也要看到其不足。为此,本文尝试从出口结构、比较优势、附加值和科技创新能力四个方面对中国制造业在东亚地区的实力进行分析,以便更好地审视中国在东亚地区事务中的地位与应发挥的作用,促进中国制造业向高层次发展。     

How do countries respond to anti‐dumping filings? Dispute settlement and retaliatory anti‐dumping

Empirical studies have found that countries may respond strategically to the anti‐dumping petition filed against their exporters through their own retaliatory actions. Although most previous studies have focused on retaliatory anti‐dumping filings, in this paper we explore another potential avenue for strategic response—filing a complaint under the World Trade Organization's (WTO ) dispute settlement understanding. Using a panel of global anti‐dumping filings between 1995 and 2011, we analyse under what conditions countries will choose to retaliate through either an anti‐dumping petition or a WTO dispute, and to what degree these two strategies are complementary or act as substitutes. We find statistical evidence that countries are more likely to file a WTO dispute when they have also filed a retaliatory anti‐dumping petition, suggesting that these two strategies may be complementary.     

Ethical Perceptions of Business Students: Differences Between East Asia and the USA and Among “Confucian” Cultures

This paper reports the results of a survey of 842 undergraduate business students in four nations – the United States of America (the USA), the Peoples’ Republic of China (the PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea (the ROK). This survey asked students to respond to four scenarios with potentially unethical business behavior and a string of questions related to the importance of ethics in business strategy and in personal behaviors. Based on arguments related to differences in recent historical experiences, the authors suggest that student responses may be as different within the East Asian (Confucian) environment as they are between this environment as a whole and the USA. Survey results indicate a greater perception of ethical problems and more importance placed on ethics per se in business practices, as well as less of an emphasis on social harmony (a key distinguishing characteristic of Confucian values identified in prior research) on the part of USA students. At the same time, substantial national differences in response are also witnessed within the set of East Asian students. A priori expectations as to the manner in which these East Asian responses should vary based on differences in recent historical experiences are partially, but not fully, supported. The authors argue that the key value of the reported research rests on a demonstration that national differences within a common cultural (e.g., East Asian or Confucian) area can be as great as differences across cultural (East vs. West) areas and that practitioners of global business must fine-tune their expectations as to acceptable business and personal actions to accommodate specific national historical experiences to be effective. Professors Chung and Eichenseher are professor of accounting at their respective universities. Professor Taniguchi's primary field of study is economics.     

Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non‐discriminatory?

The debates on regional trade arrangements in East Asia focus on whether the RTAs can be net trade creating or diverting, and whether they impede multilateral trade liberalisation or not. This paper attempts to answer these questions by quantitatively estimating the economic impact of possible East Asian free trade areas based on a bilateral gravity model, and evaluating the main characteristics of the proposed FTAs. We find that the trade creation effect expected from the proposed East Asian FTAs such as a China‐Japan‐Korea or an ASEAN plus three (China, Japan, Korea) FTA will be significant enough to overwhelm the trade diversion effect. We also judge that East Asian FTAs will likely be a building block for a global free trade.     

China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?1

China is criticised for keeping its dollar exchange rate fairly stable when it has a large trade (saving) surplus. This criticism is misplaced in two ways. First, no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. Second, since 1995, the stable yuan/dollar rate has anchored China’s price level and facilitated counter cyclical fiscal policies that have smoothed its high real GDP growth at a remarkable 9 to 11 per cent per year. With its now greater GDP, China displaces Japan as the largest economy in East Asia – but with a much stronger stabilising influence on East Asian neighbours from its higher economic growth and more stable dollar exchange rate. Now, an ever larger China is an essential stabiliser for the world economy – as exemplified by its prompt and effective fiscal response to the global credit crunch of 2008–09. However, cumulating financial distortions – in China and the United States – threaten to undermine China’s growth and its stabilising influence on the rest of the world.     

Output Movements in East Asia: Is There a Regional Factor?

Using Lumsdaine and Prasad's (2003 ) methodology to construct a measure of the common component of industrial output fluctuations with time‐varying weights, this study finds that there is a significant regional factor that explains the movement in industrial production output across countries in East Asia (ASEAN 5 + 3). The cumulated common component for East Asia has very distinct peaks and troughs, with turning points occurring about every three years. Shocks in 2000–2001, coinciding with the bursting of the IT bubble, appear to be very important as there is a very large decline in the common component of industrial production output, larger than that experienced during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Similar to McKinnon and Schnabl's (2003 ) findings, the Japanese economy is important for the region as its industrial production output cycle has the largest weight in the construction of the cumulated common component for the region and appears to be the most similar to it. Nevertheless, China's asymmetry with the cumulated component for the region appears to have been beneficial for the region, especially in the most recent period.