How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China

China strongly restricts rural–urban migration, resulting in a well acknowledged surplus of labor in agriculture. But migration is also restricted within sectors. This paper argues that these intra-sector restrictions lead to insufficient agglomeration of economic activity in both the rural industrial and urban sectors, with resulting first order losses in GDP. For urban areas the paper estimates a city productivity relationship, based on city GDP numbers. The effects of access, educational attainment, FDI, and public infrastructure on productivity are estimated. Given these, worker productivity is shown to be an inverted U-shape function of city employment, with the peak point shifting out as industrial composition moves from manufacturing to services, as predicted by urban theory. As far as we know this is the first paper to actually estimate the relationship between output per worker and city scale for any country. The majority of Chinese cities are shown to be potentially undersized—below the lower bound on the 95% confidence interval about the size where their output per worker peaks. The paper calculates the large gains from increased agglomeration in both the rural industrial and urban sectors.     

中国经济走势分析(1998—2002)——兼论以住宅金融创新为突破口实现城乡就业联动

本文首先分析了 2 0 0 1年在世界经济增速减缓中 ,中国经济显似“一枝独秀”。然而 ,就中国经济的自身情况看 ,仍存在着一些值得重视的问题。本文进一步考察了近几年来中国经济增长的特点 ,并提出今后发展的逻辑思路 :扩大就业问题 ,包括城镇人员就业与农村劳动力向城镇转移 ,是下一步中国经济增长中需要解决的一个突出问题 ;这主要靠城镇产业结构的升级来拉动 ;而这又要靠城镇消费结构的升级来拉动 ;住宅业的发展是城镇消费结构升级的一个重要内容 ;在提高和培育居民购买力的过程中 ,住宅金融创新是关键的一环 ;通过住宅金融创新 ,推动城镇住宅业的发展和我国城市化的进程 ,可以做到以城带乡 ,以乡促城 ,实现城乡就业联动 ;由此 ,推动中国经济实现新一轮的快速增长。     

Property Rights, Renewable Resources and Economic Development

This paper analyzes the role of endogenous property rights in the development of an open resource-based economy. I incorporate renewable resources and endogenous decisions on property rights into a convex growth model with the formal and informal sectors. I find that along the transition path to steady state, property rights enforcement is not constant but improves with time as well as involves intermediate property rights specification (between open access and perfect property rights). International trade and labor market are driving these endogenous changes. Property rights improve with favorable terms of trade when the economy exports resource services and stronger property rights help maintain the resource stock by deterring illegal harvest. This pushes labor away from the informal harvest sector toward greater participation in the formal sector of the economy. In turn, more labor participation in the formal sector along with capital formation increase the country’s output and consumption. Overall, with an open economy and well-functioning institutions, renewable resources have a positive impact on economic growth.     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

The creative class, its preferences, and unbalanced growth in an urban economy

We theoretically analyze unbalanced growth in an urban economy arising from the preferences of the creative class concerning the relative desirability of agricultural, manufacturing, and service goods. We study two cases. In the first case, the production functions for the three categories of goods are identical. Our analysis leads to four results. First, we compute the equilibrium physical to creative capital ratios and the relationships between the neutral productivity shifters and the output prices. Second, we show that agricultural and services consumption are a constant multiple of manufacturing consumption. Third, we note that under certain conditions, an equilibrium in which all sectors of our urban economy grow at a constant rate does not exist. Fourth, we show that a constant growth path (CGP) equilibrium exists in which, across the three sectors, the pattern of consumption changes and there is a reallocation of creative capital. In the second case, the production functions for the three categories of goods are dissimilar. In this more realistic setting, we study generalizations of the previously described four results.     

宿迁市经济增长因素实证分析——基于Cobb-Dauglas生产函数的定量分析

根据Cobb-Dauglas生产函数,地区经济增长的因素主要可以归结为技术、资本和劳动三个因素。运用Cobb-Dauglas生产函数模型,以统计数据为基础,测算了2000—2005年间宿迁市经济增长中各种生产要素的贡献。通过分析得出宿迁的经济增长主要靠资本的投入实现,技术进步也起到一定的作用,而劳动在其中的作用很小。提出宿迁应进一步加快产业结构升级,充分发挥技术进步的作用,同时着力扶持劳动密集型企业,吸纳更多的劳动力。     

Structural Change and Economic Growth in China

This study develops a new analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach is expanded to include another source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low‐productivity sectors to high‐productivity sectors. It is found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, further development of rural enterprises and an increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions are key to improvements in overall economic efficiency.     

辽宁省产业结构对其经济增长影响的实证研究

运用区位商和聚类分析方法分析了辽宁省的产业结构层次;运用偏离-份额法,从产业结构和竞争力两个方面分析辽宁省的三次产业结构、工业产业结构对其经济增长速度、经济增长效益的影响。结果显示:在全国区域分工中,辽宁省的产业结构层次较高;辽宁省第二、三产业的快速发展促进了其经济实现较快增长;辽宁省技术含量高、附加值高的工业行业的发展水平仍较低,这些行业在区际分工中不具有优势;冶金、化工、机械制造等投资大、资本有机构成高的重化工业在辽宁省经济中仍占有举足轻重的地位。     

REGIONAL SPECIALIZATION,URBAN HIERARCHY,AND COMMUTING COSTS*

We consider an economic geography model of a new genre: All firms and workers are mobile and their agglomeration within a city generates costs through competition on a housing market. In the case of two sectors, contrasted patterns arise. When one good is perfectly mobile, the corresponding industry is partially dispersed whereas the other is agglomerated, thus showing regional specialization. When one sector supplies a nontradeable consumption good, this sector is more agglomerated than the other. The corresponding equilibrium involves an urban hierarchy in that a larger array of varieties of the two goods is produced within the same city.     

Competition,taxation and economic growth

The paper mainly examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy and sectoral labor distribution in an endogenous growth model with expanding varieties. For analyzing these relationships, we consider an economy where three sectors of production are vertically integrated: final goods sector, intermediate goods sector and research sector. We show that the extent of imperfect competition in the intermediate products market affects both economic growth and the allocation of the available labor to all the sectors employing this input. The resources from capital taxation, which are used for financing research sector, have a U-shaped effect on growth and lead to a movement of the labor from research sector to final goods sector. Additionally, we show that if there exists a higher competitive structure in an economy, the probability of the positive effect of an increase in tax on growth gets higher.     

康托洛维奇规划论、 DOSSO模型与中国经济

本文首先从理论和应用计算的角度考察了康托洛维奇规划论和DOSSO模型,并从逻辑上明确了这两类模型的一致性。其次追加了固定资本约束条件以及劳动资源约束条件对中国经济进行了应用分析,得出了如下结论：除建筑部门以外的固定资本部门的实际增长路径基本接近理论值,而流动资本及消费品部门的实际增长路径跟理论值略有波动。     

Micro and macro dynamics: Industry life cycles,inter-sector coordination and aggregate growth

Technological change directly affects economic growth by exploiting and exploring technological opportunities, thus determining productivity growth and income. However, technological change also affects the composition of the economic system, which itself constitutes an important prerequisite for economic growth. The first aim of this paper is to show that the growing variety of the economic system, determined by the emergence of new products and services and leading to new industrial sectors, can allow the long term continuation of economic development, even when the employment creating capacity of individual sectors falls. The second aim is to illustrate the impact of micro variables on the meso-level, that is, on the sectoral composition of an economy, as well as on its macro-economic performance.      

农民工住房政策与经济增长

中国城市住房市场中存在明显的分割,"城中村"等居住环境恶劣的"非正式"住房容纳了大量农民工。通过构建一个农民工住房与经济增长的理论模型,本文发现,针对农民工的单纯住房数量的供给在低端产业占主导时对经济增长的推动作用明显,但在高技能产业比重逐渐增加时其效果逐渐衰减。相反地,改善农民工居住环境的政策能够使住房供给对经济增长的推动力具有可持续性。同时,这类改良政策能够减少潜在的社会冲突所导致的社会资源非生产性损耗,使得分给城市原有居民的"蛋糕"份额也会变大,因此有希望成为一个可以自发实现的内生政策变迁过程,既有利于促进经济增长,又有利于实现城乡融合和社会和谐。     

Structural Change in Advanced Nations: A New Set of Stylised Facts*

We provide new evidence on patterns of structural change in advanced economies, reconsidering the stylised facts put forward by Kaldor (1963) , Kuznets (1971) , and Maddison (1980) . Since 1980, the services sector has overwhelmingly predominated in the economic activity of the European Union, Japan, and the US, but there is substantial heterogeneity among services. Personal, finance, and business services have low productivity growth and increasing shares in employment and GDP. By contrast, shares of distribution services are constant, and productivity growth is rapid. We find that the labour share in value‐added is declining, while the use of ICT capital and skilled labour is increasing in all sectors and regions.     

Economic development, growth of human capital, and the dynamics of the wage structure

In this paper I elucidate the sources of growth of human capital in the course of economic development. On the supply side (Section 1) I include the growth of family income, urbanization, the demographic transition, and the rising cost of time.The supply side alone cannot explain the continuous growth of human capital as it implies a self limiting decline in rates of return below those in alternative investments. Such declines are offset by growing demands for human capital in the labor market. Growth of demand for labor skills is a function of capital accumulation and of technological changes. Evidence on this hypothesis is summarized in Section 2 and on supply responses to growing demand for human capital in Section 3. Changes in the skill and wage structures in the labor market are an important part of the evidence.The reciprocal relation between economic growth and the growth of human capital is likely to be an important key to sustained economic growth. A caveat applies to indirect effects of economic growth on family instability, which may lead to a deterioration of childhood human capital in some sectors of society.     

Fiscal policies,frictional labor market,and endogenous growth

This paper considers the spillover effects from public spending, and studies optimal fiscal policies in frictional labor markets. We obtain that the optimal shares of government spending in production and consumption are the same as those in a frictionless labor market under the Hosios condition. However, as higher capital accumulation increases the cost of job creation and maintenance, the optimal tax rate of capital income is positive. In addition, when the labor market is frictional, the marginal benefit of labor is larger than the marginal utility of leisure. Thus, consumption and labor should not be taxed uniformly any more. Our calibration suggests that all of the three tax rates should be positive. Moreover, in the situation in which the Hosios condition does not hold, the shares of public productive spending and public consumption both increase when the worker’s bargaining power is greater than the elasticity of search in the matching function.     

经济集聚、产业结构与城市土地产出率——基于我国234个地级城市1999-2006年面板数据的实证研究

文章运用面板数据,实证分析了经济集聚和产业结构等因素对城市土地产出率的影响。研究结果表明,资本密度是影响城市土地产出率最重要的因素,资本对劳动的替代性造成就业密度对城市土地产出率的贡献很小,甚至为负;城市净集聚效应为负和资本劳动比不断攀升,说明城市资本投入是低效率的;扩大城市人口规模、控制城市用地面积、发展先进制造业有利于提高城市土地产出率,经济集聚和产业结构因素对不同规模和不同地区城市土地产出率的影响程度和作用方向具有显著差异。     

A TALE OF TAX POLICIES IN OPEN ECONOMIES

To evaluate fiscal policy reforms for Euro‐area countries, this article develops and calibrates a small open economy model. Debt reduction reforms require higher tax rates in the short term in exchange for lower rates in the long term as the debt‐servicing burden falls. Using the capital income tax to implement such a policy leads to welfare gains; the consumption tax, a very small welfare gain; and the labor income tax, a welfare loss. Holding fixed the long‐run debt–output ratio, offsetting a lower capital income tax with either a higher labor income or consumption tax generally yields welfare gains.     

非农部门劳动力增长速度研究

根据影响非农部门劳动力增长速度的相关因素,运用C-D生产函数,利用1996～2004年间的非农部门有关数据,对影响非农部门劳动力增长速度的有关因素进行实证分析,结果表明影响我国非农部门劳动力增长速度的主要因素为:资本增长速度、非农部门实物工资增长速度、技术进步引起的劳动边际产出的增长速度和工业劳动边际产出对劳动力的弹性。政府应通过提高资本质量、吸引国外投资,保持物价稳定、控制工资上涨,加强创新力度,提高员工技能以促进非农部门劳动力增长。     

Wage Inequality,Increased Competition,and Trade Liberalization: Short Run vs Long Run

This paper examines the impact of increased competition and trade liberalization on skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the short run as well as the long run. It is shown that an increase in the number of firms in the producer services sector increases wage inequality in the short run even if the income shares of capital in the industrial and agricultural sectors were identical. A decrease in the services sector's fixed cost decreases wage inequality in the short run if the income share of capital in the agricultural sector is relatively large. Owing to the presence of external economies, a decrease in the services sector's fixed cost increases wage inequality in the long run. A decrease in import duty on the agricultural good increases wage inequality in the short as well as the long run but its effect in the long run is stronger due to the presence of external economies in the industrial sector.