Out-of-sample cash flow prediction and cash distributions to shareholders

This study provides empirical evidence that net cash distributions to shareholders provide a noteworthy context for improving the out-of-sample prediction of cash flow. Dechow et al. (2008) suggest that net distributions to shareholders is an indicator for future cash flow, and the current study hypothesizes that the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts increases with the magnitude of the shareholder distributions. The empirical results are consistent with this hypothesis for one-year-ahead forecasts, and the results are robust to controls for firm size. Moreover, the results indicate that the distributions to shareholders effect largely subsumes the firm size effect for forecasts of free cash flow, but not for operating cash flow. This suggests that firm size is a proxy for operating stability but not investing stability. Overall, the study provides a practical context for analysts, creditors and others to consider when generating cash flow forecasts.     

Asymmetric cash flow sensitivity of cash holdings

Almeida, Campello, and Weisbach (2004) and Riddick and Whited (2009) offer contrasting conclusions regarding the corporate cash flow sensitivity of cash. We use an augmented empirical model to affirm the conclusion in Riddick and Whited that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is generally negative. In addition, we contend that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is asymmetric to cash flow. The asymmetry may be due to several reasons, including binding project contracts, bad news withholding, and agency costs. Using a sample of manufacturing firms from 1972 to 2006, we document that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is negative when a firm faces a positive cash flow environment, supporting Riddick and Whited (2009), but the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive when a firm faces negative cash flows. We further divide firms into financially constrained and unconstrained ones and find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash asymmetry continues to hold in both groups. When we use institutional holding as a control for the agency problem, we find that firms with better outside monitoring dissave to capture good investment opportunities. All the results support our hypotheses that firms have different levels of responses to their cash holdings when facing positive and negative cash flows.     

ESG activities and firm cash flow

I measure the influence of ESG activities on Free Cash flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. I find that ESG activities primarily benefit the cash flows to creditors of firms in developed markets. The ESG effect predominantly comes from the excess spending of the firm on communicating how it integrates the economic (financial), social and environmental dimensions into its day-to-day decision-making processes. For developed market firms, the additional factor of excess spending on conditions for the workforce plays a role in boosting Free Cash Flow to the Firm.     

The relative information content of operating and financing cash flow in the proposed cash flow statement

This study compares the relative information content of the new specifications of operating and financing cash flow as proposed jointly by the IASB and the FASB with the specifications in SFAS No. 95. A unique feature of the study is the use of the Siegel and Biddle (1994) test of relative information content. The results indicate that the proposed operating cash flow measure has less relative information content than the current measure, and the results for financing cash flow are consistent with equity investors finding no significant difference between the current and proposed measures.     

如果有稳定的现金流就将它证券化

根据研究公用事业行业的需要,资产证券化(Asset Backed Securities)融资方式可以理解为:将一组流动性较差的公用事业资产经过一定的组合,使这组资产能产生可预计且稳定的现金流收益,通过中介机构的信用加强,把这些资产的收益权转变为可在金融市场上流动的、信用等级较高的债券型证券的过程.     

A cash flow cost-volume-profit model

The traditional cost-volume-profit (CVP) model assumes the accounting flows follow the accrual accounting model. No distinction is made between accrual cost flows and cash flows. This paper looks at several different cash flow break-even models.One model assumes there is no opportunity to use an accrual accounting taxable loss by other profitable product lines or through a tax loss carryback. When graphed, this model presents a “dog-leg” at the accrual accounting breakeven point. A more general model assumes that an accrual tax loss is usable. When graphed, this model presents a line parallel to the after-tax accrual-based cost line, shifted downward in the amount of the noncash fixed costs.     

Over-investment of free cash flow

This paper examines the extent of firm level over-investment of free cash flow. Using an accounting-based framework to measure over-investment and free cash flow, I find evidence that, consistent with agency cost explanations, over-investment is concentrated in firms with the highest levels of free cash flow. Further tests examine whether firms’ governance structures are associated with over-investment of free cash flow. The evidence suggests that certain governance structures, such as the presence of activist shareholders, appear to mitigate over-investment.     

粉饰与识别：透视企业现金流量

在上期的文章中,周纳老师向我们介绍了主要的会计报告粉饰方法对现金流量的影响中的前三种方法,即利用虚拟资产调节利润;利用长期投资调整影响报表使用者的指标;操纵收入确认。本期将继续介绍后几种粉饰方法对现金流量表的影响方法：利用关联方交易的方法;利用会计政策、会计估计变更粉饰公司业绩;利用时间差（跨年度）调节利润;利用资本经营调节利润。     

Equivalent valuations in cash flow and accounting models

This paper investigates the equivalence of equity valuation between the free cash flow model and the residual income model. Two conditions are found to be jointly sufficient for Residual Income and Free Cash Flow models to produce the same equity valuation: (a) the models’ discount rates jointly satisfy the Modigliani and Miller (Am Econ Rev 48:261–297, 1958) condition which relates discount rates for levered equity, unlevered equity, tax savings and debt, and (b) forecasts of the two models’ variables jointly satisfy the income statement and balance sheet identities. Past discussions fail by ignoring or misusing (a).     

Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals

This paper investigates how analyst cash flow forecasts affect investors' valuation of accounting accruals. We find that the strength of the accrual anomaly documented in Sloan (1996) is weaker for firms with analyst cash flow forecasts, after controlling for idiosyncratic risk, transaction costs and firm characteristics associated with the issuance of cash flow forecasts. We further show that this reduction in mispricing of accounting accruals is at least partially attributed to the improved ability of investors to price earnings manipulations imbedded in accruals. We investigate several non-mutually exclusive alternative explanations for this improvement in investors' ability and demonstrate that the increased investor attention and the improved accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts both contribute to the mitigation of the accrual anomaly.     

Impact of an accounting environment on cash flow prediction

This study investigates the impact of an accounting environment on the performance of cash flow prediction models. It is hypothesized that the cash flow model by Barth, Cram, and Nelson [Acc. Rev. 76 (2001) 27] performs well in countries where the accruals are used mainly to correct cash flows to better reflect current profitability of the firm, i.e., in countries with high information content of accruals. The results suggest that the model performs consistently across countries, except in Germany. As hypothesized, the impacts of the explanatory variables are similar in market-oriented countries with separated financial accounting and taxation, with strong shareholder protection and legislation based on common-law origin, i.e., in countries with high quality of accruals. By contrast, the impacts are different in countries with low quality of accruals. The results imply that the cash flow prediction model by Barth et al. [Acc. Rev. 76 (2001) 27] can be used in different kinds of accounting environments. However, the exact parameter values are dependent on the accounting environment.     

Determinants and economic consequences of cash flow restatements

The FASB, PCAOB, SEC, and AICPA have all acknowledged that the accounting field needs to revisit the statement of cash flows (SCF). While the overall number of restatements has held steady over the past five years, the percentage of cash flow restatements (CFRs) has risen from 8.7% of all restatements in 2009 to 20.2% of all restatements in 2014. We examine the determinants of CFRs, investors’ differential beliefs about CFRs, and the information content of CFRs by focusing on abnormal trading volume and price reactions to CFRs. We then examine whether the guidance the SEC/AICPA published in early 2006 changed the information content of CFRs. Finally, since the proper classification within the SCF is a current regulatory issue, we examine whether classification shifting within the SCFs impacts the market. The market finds CFRs to be informative with some investor disagreement as shown by higher abnormal trading volume. We also find an incremental volume reaction to changes in operating cash flows after the SEC allowance period. While the market responds negatively to CFRs, we find that the market does not differentiate between whether classification shifting occurs or does not occur with the CFR. This study has implications for policymakers, auditors, and investors since it is one of the first to examine the capital market consequences of CFRs.     

The determinants of cash flow sensitivity of cash: The family ownership effect

This paper investigates firms’ cash flow sensitivity of cash (CFSC) in a European setting. We examine the differing effects of financial constraints and income and substitution effects on CFSC in the context of the family ownership structure. When examining the shareholders’ behavior within the ownership structure of family firms, we find a positive CFSC level for our full sample. Our results show a significant connection between the family ownership structure and CFSC’s determinant factors: the higher (lower) sensitivity for the firms with more (less) financial constraints suggests that family firms are financially less constrained than non-family firms. Additionally, contrary to prior literature, we find income and substitution effects have a nonnegative effect on CFCS. We explain this finding from a productivity shocks perspective related to the financial crisis, which occurs during our analysis period.     

Operating cash flow asymmetric timeliness in Australia

Operating cash flow (CFO) asymmetric timeliness occurs when CFO reflects bad news more quickly than good news. We examine the presence and determinants of CFO asymmetric timeliness in Australia, where substantial differences in reporting requirements of cash flow components, in characteristics of listed companies and in the degree of conservative financial reporting produce contrasting findings to those in the United States. We find supportive evidence for the novel ‘sticky cost behaviour’ explanation and also the product-pricing strategy, but not the life cycle hypothesis. These findings are useful for investors and analysts concerned with forecasting the future values of companies.     

Operating cash flow opacity and stock price crash risk

We examine the relation between operating cash flow (OCF) opacity and stock price crash risk. We find that OCF opacity is positively associated with future stock price crash risk after controlling for accruals opacity and other determinants known to influence crash risk. This finding suggests that OCF opacity facilitates bad news hoarding and enables managerial resource diversion, which in turn increases crash risk. We also find that the positive relation between OCF opacity and crash risk is more pronounced when external monitoring is weak, information asymmetry is high, OCF importance is low, and cost of accruals management is high. Overall, our evidence highlights the severe consequence of OCF opacity in that it boosts crash risk; our study should alert the researchers, investors, and regulators to pay more attention to OCF management.     

基金现金流、明星基金与溢出效应

本文建立动态面板数据模型,运用系统广义矩(System GMM)方法对基金现金流和基金业绩、明星基金和溢出效应的关系进行考察。结果发现,无论是从单只基金层面还是从基金系层面,基金(基金系)现金流都与基金(基金系)业绩呈显著负相关。对明星基金本身来说,表现为净现金流出;但明星基金为同属一个基金系的其他成员基金带来显著的正向溢出效应。另外,从基金系角度看,虽然存在溢出效应,明星基金的存在并没有给整个基金系带来显著的现金流入,说明基金系的造星策略并不十分有效。     

The effect of cash flow statement format on lenders' decisions

This study investigates bank loan officers' use of financial information and reports, in particular, cash flow information and the statement of cash flow (SCF), in making lending decisions. Subjects were drawn from four groups of frequent users of financial reports-bank loan officers, auditors, financial analysts and accounting academics. Each subject was presented with the annual reports of two loan applicant companies to make two independent lending decisions based on the information provided. The SCF of one of the companies was presented in the direct format, while the other was presented in the indirect format. The indirect format of SCF was used as a surrogate for the funds flow statement. Results show that, while cash flow was the second most used financial information, the majority of the subjects obtained this information from financial statements other than the SCF, notably, the balance sheet. In terms of financial report usage, notes to the financial statements, rather than the SCF, was most frequently used. No subject made use of the incremental information provided in the SCF presented in the direct format. The results suggest that loan officers do not use the cash flow information provided by the SCF, but rely on the accounting information provided in the FFS and accrual-based financial reports.     

Agency costs of free cash flow and conditional conservatism

This study investigates whether agency costs of free cash flow (FCF) are associated with conditional conservatism. Prior research documents that conditional conservatism improves ex ante efficient investment decisions and facilitates ex post monitoring of managers’ investment decisions. As conditional conservatism can provide protection from possible managerial expropriation, the demand for conditional conservatism should increase with the agency costs of FCF. Using excess cash as a proxy for the agency costs of FCF, I provide evidence that firms with higher agency costs of FCF incorporate losses in a timelier manner relative to gains compared to their counterparts. Additionally, the association between excess cash and conditional conservatism predictably varies with the presence of alternative monitoring mechanisms that mitigate FCF problems, such as debt or dividend payouts or repurchases. Further investigation suggests that greater conservatism is associated with a lower likelihood of overinvestment among firms bearing high agency costs of FCF, demonstrating the ability of conservatism to reduce agency costs of FCF.