我国进出口贸易的价格弹性和收入弹性测算——基于国别(地区)层面和行业层面的实证研究

本文基于1998—2012年我国双边贸易数据和细分行业数据,对我国进出口贸易的价格弹性和收入弹性进行了测算,结果发现,我国进口价格弹性为-0.30,出口价格弹性为0.48,说明马歇尔—勒纳条件不成立。无论是国别层面还是行业层面,出口价格弹性大于进口价格弹性,这主要是由于我国进口以原材料等资源类商品为主,而出口则以制成品为主;进出口收入弹性大于价格弹性,说明我国贸易顺差主要是经济增长的结果,汇率只是次要因素。     

影响中国出口贸易的主导因素分析

本文采用自回归分布滞后模型和边限检验方法,利用1997年1季度至2008年4季度的数据估计了中国进出口贸易需求的收入弹性、价格弹性和汇率弹性,结果发现国外收入变化是影响中国出口的主要因素,产品价格对出口的影响较小,而人民币汇率波动对出口的影响不确定。因此,如果采取低价格促进出口的措施,不仅是低效的,而且是得不偿失的。转向以内需驱动为主的经济增长方式,是中国经济发展的必然战略选择。     

中国进出口价格弹性研究

本文通过建立中国进出口弹性模型和行业计量经济模型,测算和研究了中国进出口弹性问题.主要研究结论是:第一,中国中长期出口价格弹性和进口价格弹性分别为-0.8579和-1.0774;第二,中国大部分行业的出口价格弹性小于1,特别是农业、石油及天然气开采业、纺织业、化学工业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业以及社会服务业价格弹性绝对值都在0.5左右.适当提高价格对增加这些部门的收入是有利的;第三,中国大部分行业进口需求价格弹性小于或接近于1;石油及天然气开采业的进口价格需求弹性为异常值,为 1.3148,说明:对于原油这样的战略性物资应该反市场操作,中东出现安全时价低时吃进以为战略储备,而出现危机时抛出以平抑国内原油市场价格的加速上扬.     

中国进出口价格和收入弹性的估计与行业比较

以不完全替代理论为基础建立中国进出口需求模型,并运用该模型对我国1995～2008年间的各行业进出口的价格弹性和收入弹性进行估计与检验,估计结果表明:我国各类进口品的国内替代程度普遍较低,有必要全面促进国内进口替代行业的发展;制成品进口中电子类和医药类进口的收入弹性较大,着力发展电子类和医药类产品的国内进口替代,将有利于减少对国外市场的依赖;中国所有制成品出口需求的世界收入弹性都非常高,说明中国出口产品易受世界经济波动的冲击,因此有必要提高中国各项出口品在国际市场的综合竞争力。。     

人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响的实证研究——基于1995-2011年数据

本文采用基于VAR的Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正（VEC）模型实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的长期静态影响及短期动态影响。结果发现,长期进出口贸易的汇率弹性均不显著,进口的汇率弹性较大,出口几乎无汇率弹性;长期进出口贸易的变化主要由国内外收入决定;短期内,进出口的汇率弹性同为负,即汇率贬值,进出口均增加,汇率升值降低出口的同时,进口也会下降且下降幅度大于出口的减少;而且向长期均衡调整的力度较小。因此说明单纯的汇率调整不能有效改善我国的贸易不平衡问题。     

我国石油进口需求弹性分析

通过对近年我国主要进口能源产品的贸易和行业使用情况进行分析,并对2001年后原油和燃料油这两种最主要的进口能源品,应用月度数据和VAR模型估计其进口需求方程。估计结果的弹性分析表明原油进口缺乏价格弹性,但是有一定的工业增加值和交通运输弹性;燃料油进口有较高的价格弹性和工业增加值弹性。此结果反映出工业和交通业等相关行业发展对油品进口的影响力,并为降低油品对外依存度的相关政策提供了经验研究的证据。     

汇率冲击与劳动力市场调整——中国行业数据的经验研究

文章主要分析在汇率冲击下,中国可贸易行业1998—2009年劳动力市场的调整过程。文章利用实际有效汇率指标和动态面板估计方法分析影响劳动力市场调整的不同渠道。结果表明,汇率贬值通过出口渠道增加就业和降低工资,通过进口渠道降低就业和提高工资,通过效率渠道促进就业和降低工资。高贸易依存度行业的就业汇率弹性大于低贸易依存度行业,低加成比例行业的就业汇率弹性大于高加成比例行业,劳动力技术结构是影响就业汇率弹性的重要因素。     

中美双边贸易对美国工业行业劳动力需求弹性影响效应研究

从劳动力需求弹性的视角研究中美贸易对美国劳动力市场的影响,利用1997—2009年中美双边贸易数据和美国制造业行业数据,从理论分析和实证验证的角度进行探讨。研究发现,中美贸易对美国劳动力需求弹性变化有重要影响,美国向中国出口有利于降低劳动力需求弹性,美国从中国进口有利于提高劳动力需求弹性,净进口最终将带来劳动力需求弹性的提升。区分技能工人和非技能工人之后,净进口不论从替代效应角度还是从规模效应角度均将导致美国工业行业工人劳动力需求弹性增强。     

人民币升值能解决美国对华贸易赤字吗?——基于1994～2005年间月度数据的贸易弹性分析

文章以1994年1月到2005年3月的月度数据为样本,用ARDL框架下的协整方法,对中美贸易的收入弹性和实际汇率弹性进行了经验分析。分析后发现:第一,我国对美进出口的收入弹性都是显著的,并且我国对美国出口的收入弹性约为我国从美进口的收入弹性的6倍,但是我国对美进口和出口的实际汇率弹性都是不显著的。因此,文章认为人民币汇率对中美贸易没有显著影响,人民币汇率升值将无法改善美国的对华贸易收支。     

中国对外贸易与城乡居民收入差距的关系研究——基于1978年～2008年省际面板数据的实证分析

笔者利用1978年～2008年中国30个省市的面板数据,对中国进出口贸易与城乡居民收入差距之间的关系进行了研究,结果表明:对外贸易是影响我国城乡居民收入差距的重要因素.从整体来看,在1978年～2008年期间,我国对外贸易的发展导致我国城乡居民收入差距拉大,但是,不同时期贸易对全国以及三大区域的城乡收入差距的影响程度、影响方向和显著性都不相同.出口和进口对我国城乡收入差距的影响也有差异,而进口对全国以及三大区域的城乡收入差距的影响比出口更大.     

Currency Options and Export-Flexible Firms

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of a globally competitive firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The firm is risk averse and possesses export flexibility in that it can distribute its output to either the domestic market or a foreign market after observing the realized spot exchange rate. To hedge against its exchange rate risk exposure, the firm can trade fairly priced currency call options of an arbitrary strike price. We show that both the separation and the full‐hedging results hold if the strike price of the currency call options is set equal to the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices. Otherwise, neither result holds. Specifically, we show that the optimal level of output is always less than that of an otherwise identical firm that is risk neutral. Furthermore, an under‐hedge (over‐hedge) is optimal whenever the strike price of the currency call options is below (above) the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices.     

Forward Markets and the Behaviour of the Competitive Firm with Production Flexibility

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty when a forward market for its output is available. The firm possesses production flexibility in that it makes its production decision after the resolution of the output price uncertainty, albeit subject to a capacity constraint on production. We show that the firm optimally acquires a higher level of capacity investment than an otherwise identical firm with no production flexibility. We further show that production flexibility allows the firm to implicitly hedge against its output price risk exposure by the ex post production decision. The firm as such under‐hedges its output price risk exposure in the forward market wherein the forward price contains a non‐positive risk premium.     

中国城镇居民住房消费需求弹性分析

影响城镇居民住房消费需求的因素是多方面的，包括收入水平、住房价格、人口因素、金融和税收政策等等。其中，收入和价格因素是构成影响居民住房需求诸多因素中最主要和最直接的因素。应分析住房需求收入弹性和价格弹性，从提高居民收入和稳定住房价格两个方面鼓励城镇居民进行住房消费。     

Trade policy reform and international trade tax revenue in Uganda

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between tariff reform and customs tax revenue by explicitly capturing the institutional features of decision making in the econometric modeling. The results show that exchange rate depreciation has had pass through effects to the domestic market price of imports which reduces trade tax revenue to GDP ratio in the long run, though it increases trade tax revenue in the short term. There are also seasonal patterns in the short term trade tax payment. The results point to some scope to harness the benefits associated with trade policy reform without having to worry a lot about its effects on trade (and overall) tax revenue. In fact, it would be possible to realise modest increases in trade tax revenue if the exemption regime were to be reviewed and if there was capacity to contain the disruptive impact of sharp exchange rate depreciations.     

Neoclassical Growth, Manufacturing Agglomeration, and Terms of Trade

This study reverses the prediction of geography and growth models that trade integration may cause income divergence. Moreover, a new dynamic welfare gain of trade openness is identified. These results are obtained from embedding a new economic geography model into a neoclassical growth model. Starting from symmetric countries, a country that accumulates more capital than the other increases its home market size, improves its terms of trade, and lowers its relative consumption price index, because trade costs drive a wedge in between relative producer and consumption price indices. Both effects in turn tend to increase its marginal revenue product of capital relative to the other country (divergence forces), while factor substitution diminishes its marginal revenue product of capital (convergence force). Reducing trade costs decreases the wedge and weakens the divergence forces, while the convergence force is unaffected. Hence, divergence is more likely with higher rather than lower trade costs.     

Monopsony and Time–Consistency: Sustainable Pricing Policies for Perennial Crops

Since farmers in developing countries must make sunk investments to produce perennial crops, governments, in the guise of state-run marketing boards, face constraints on maximal sustinable price which can be charged by a marketing board assuming that "punishments" involve reversion to subsistence by untrusting farmers. This maximal price balances concerns about revenue extraction against the incentive of governments to cheat by capitalizing on sunk investments.     

Do Preferential Rules of Origin Reverse Trade Creation and Trade Diversion?

Restrictive preferential rules of origin (PROOs) moderate the ‘trade diversion and trade creation’ effects of free trade agreements (FTAs). Moderation effects occur because restrictive PROOs reverse the increase in the relative price of non-member country goods initially caused by FTAs. Such a reversal arises because high compliance costs associated with restrictive PROOs lead to a lower utilization of tariff preferences by member countries. With a lower utilization, the increase in the relative price of non-members country goods would be smaller than it could have been with a full utilization. Thus, restrictive PROOs will lead to less than full trade diversion from non-members to member countries, and less than complete trade creation to member countries. This paper infers the effect of restrictive PROOs on intra-regional trade from the estimated parameters of the revenue function, on the presumption that trade diversion refers to a decrease in the elasticity of substitution between import sources, and that trade creation refers to a difference between the change in import price elasticity and the trade diversion effect. Empirical results support the conjecture that restrictive PROOs move in the opposite direction of FTAs partly undoing the trade diversion and trade creation effects of FTAs.     

Revenue-increasing and welfare-enhancing reform of taxes on exports

The loss of revenue from a reduction in export taxes has been a concern for trade policy reform in many developing countries. We discuss a strategy for selective reform of taxes on exports that enhances welfare and increases revenue. The strategy involves a reduction in the export tax on a given commodity with an offsetting increase in production tax to keep the producer price unchanged. This strategy is especially promising for exportables with a net subsidy on domestic consumption due to high export taxes and low consumption taxes.     

Imperfect credibility,sticky wages,and welfare

This paper studies optimal monetary policy under imperfect credibility in a New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting. In our imperfect credibility framework, the central bank commits to a policy plan but occasionally reneges on past promises with a given common knowledge probability. We find that the welfare gains from increasing credibility are approximately linear on the initial credibility level. We also find that the output-inflation stabilisation trade-off is nonmonotonic as higher credibility does not always reduce output volatility. The variance decomposition shows that wage markup shocks are the main driver of economic fluctuations and that these shocks are better contained, even in relative terms, when credibility is high. We then show that the degree of credibility impacts the effect of wage flexibility on welfare. When credibility is low, monetary policy is less potent and the economy can experience a feedback loop between wage volatility and price volatility. We show, though, that once wage markup shocks are taken into account, wage flexibility is usually welfare improving.     

Endogenous trade policy in general equilibrium: An interaction of redistribution rule,trade openness,and labor market condition

Using a general equilibrium framework, the paper derives trade policy endogenously for a small country. It shows that, contrary to the existing literature, a lobbying industry is not guaranteed trade protection; it may even face trade taxes. Besides lobbying, trade policy depends on other factors such as the trade revenue distribution rule, income distribution across groups, trade openness, factor substitutability in production, industry employment size, and labor market flexibility. The paper also shows that the observed phenomenon of government preference for import tariffs over export subsidies—a long overdue puzzle—is an inherent outcome of lobbying equilibrium. It also shows that trade policies such as import tariffs and export taxes that have the same impact on economic market—Lerner symmetry (1936)—are driven by the same forces in the political market.