住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

Housing, home production, and the equity- and value-premium puzzles

We ask if a standard representative agent model with a home-production sector can resolve the equity-premium or value-premium puzzles. In the model, agents value market (numeraire) consumption and a home consumption good that is produced from the stock of housing, home labor, and a labor-augmenting technology shock. We construct the unobserved quantity of the home consumption good by combining observed data on numeraire consumption, hours worked in the marketplace, and rents paid on housing with restrictions of the model. We test the first-order conditions of the model using GMM. The model is rejected by the data; it cannot explain either the historical equity-premium or the value-premium.     

多套住房、可支付性和政策

随着经济全球化,现代交通、通讯方式导致的人口流动性增强,富裕群体热衷于购买休闲度假和投资用途的第二住宅,多套住宅规模呈扩大趋势。多套住房可以分为转卖和暂时空置、购买后出租、自住用途第二住宅。从短期来看,在一个供求均衡的市场,第三类第二住宅的冲击会导致中低收入阶层的住房可支付能力下降,前两者不影响。供不应求市场和供求均衡市场结果一样,但影响更大。供过于求市场则没有影响。从长期来看,结论依然和短期一样。可行的政策有加强商品房和保障性住房的供应,征收物业税减少住房的空置和闲置等,并提出了改进中国多套住房政策的建议。     

Housing investment: What makes it so volatile? Theory and evidence from OECD countries

This paper explains how mortgage market liberalization can introduce greater volatility in the housing market, which is a stylized fact documented from OECD countries, with a DSGE model where households face a credit constraint and housing is used as collateral. The housing collateral constraint creates a link between the housing market and borrowing capacity, a link that amplifies the response of housing demand to technology shocks and strengthens in economies with more liberalized mortgage markets.     

对某市廉租房政策的另类思考

本文以某城市近期拟为低收入者大量新建廉租房的住房政策引出问题,从住宅经济学中的过滤理论和某些国家在类似住房政策实施方面的经验这两个角度出发,对此问题进行一些分析,并提出笔者的一些看法:该市此项住房政策可能导致其房地产市场的退化;造成资源的浪费;并带来许多社会问题.     

预期对我国住房市场政策调控效果影响的实证分析

预期对房地产行业调控政策的实施效果有着重要的作用。一般来说,从形成机制可以把预期分为静态预期、外推型预期、适应性预期和理性预期,而我国的房地产市场因其特殊性,是介于适应性预期与理性预期之间的准理性预期。通过建立住房价格调控模型并进行实证分析后,可以发现准理性预期是一种效果较好且与实际更相符的预期;预期是影响房价的最主要因素,而预期对于房价的放大效应和预期的不稳定性又使得政策调控增加了一定的难度;房价基本上与预期成正比关系。     

Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations

This study examines the role of households’ expectations in predicting the housing boom–bust cycles in the United States. It incorporates two nonlinear features of housing price dynamics: a threshold co-movement between households’ expectations and housing price growth and a structural break in their interrelation. It uses the monthly good-time-to-buy (GTTB) index as a proxy for households’ expectations about the U.S. housing market, and employs the structural break threshold vector autoregression (SBTVAR) to specify breakpoints in housing market dynamics during the recent decades. The findings indicate that shifts in interactions between households’ expectations and housing price growth are synchronous with the recent housing boom–bust cycles. The SBTVAR framework outperforms other models as it captures more of the housing market's unique dynamic characteristics. The GTTB index, which governs expectation regime-switching patterns, is able to signal the recent housing bust three periods in advance.     

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing markets. We fit a stochastic cusp catastrophe model to empirical housing market data for six OECD countries, US, JP, UK, NL, SE and BE. Two different estimation approaches are considered – Cobb׳s method and Euler discretization. The analysis shows that while Cobb׳s approach describes the long-run stationary density better, Euler discretization is more tailored for time series, as it provides better one-step-ahead predictions. Proceeding using the Euler discretization method we discuss the dynamics of housing markets in terms of the multiple equilibria cusp catastrophe model. By considering the long-term interest rate as an exogenous variable we obtain new insights into the policy implications of interest rate levels, in particular concerning the stability of housing markets.     

Adaptation investments and homeownership

This article develops a model where ownership improves the efficiency of the housing market as it enhances the utility of housing consumption for some consumers. The model is based on an extended Hotelling–Lancaster utility approach in which the ideal variant of housing is obtainable only by adapting the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously choose housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual adaptation of the home choose ownership. This article analyses the consumer’s optimization. The model provides an explanation for the observation that homeowners typically live in larger dwelling units than tenants. It also provides an explanation for a high price of housing services tending to reduce homeownership rates.     

Estimation of variance of housing prices using spatial conditional heteroskedasticity (SARCH) model with an application to Boston housing price data

In this paper we investigate housing price volatility within a spatial econometrics setting. We propose an extended spatial regression model of the real estate market that includes the effects of both conditional heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation. Our suggested model has features similar to those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) in the time-series context. We utilize the spatial ARCH (SARCH) model to analyze Boston housing price data used by Harrison and Rubinfeld (1978) and Gilley and Pace (1996). We show that measuring the variability of housing prices is an important issue and our SARCH model captures the conditional spatial variability of Boston housing prices. We argue that there is a different source of spatial variation, which is independent of traditional housing and neighborhood characteristics, and is captured by the SARCH model.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

城市新就业职工住房保障问题实证研究——基于合肥市新就业职工的调查

调查表明,50%多的新就业职工住房困难。由于收入较低,新就业职工住房支付能力严重不足,30%多的新就业职工家庭缺乏租房支付能力;超过70%的新就业职工家庭缺乏购房支付能力。所以,要尽快将新就业职工纳入住房保障范围。首先,提高新就业职工收入水平,遏制住房价格过快上涨;其次,多渠道筹集住房保障资金;第三,积极创新相关配套政策,完善公共租赁住房准入和退出机制;第四,适时推出限价商品住房,利用优惠信贷政策,提高新就业职工住房支付能力。     

低收入群体的住房保障与信贷支持——基于住房过滤理论的分析

近年来,我国城市住房价格持续上升.保障低收入群体的基本居住权已成为城市建设和房地产业发展所面临的重大问题.目前,各部门和各地区针对住房保障问题,从供给和需求两方面制定了诸多的保障政策.但对于市场化条件下住房保障体系的内在运行机理研究则较为滞后.而国外的相关研究表明,住房过滤模型理论可以从微观角度时住房市场的结构性问题进行定量分析,并对住房价格进行生命周期全过程分析,较真实地反映住房市场特别是住房保障体系的运行机理.因此本文尝试从住房过滤模型的角度分析国内住房保障政策与住房信贷政策的实施效果,并结合该模型的适用条件与面临的现实障碍,探索住房保障措施及住房信贷制度的优化途径.     

异质性对新建商品住房市场交易速度的影响——来自北京市的微观证据

基于异方差修正的久期似然模型,利用北京市新建商品住房市场大样本数据,实证检验了城市住房异质性特征对住房市场交易风险率的影响效果及其稳健性。实证结果表明,地铁及通勤设施、教育资源、医疗资源和休闲购物等因素对新建商品住房交易速度的影响逐次减弱,且上述影响在大户型住房、预售住房以及小规模项目住房中更加显著。结论可以为市场参与者调整住房交易决策提供依据,也可以为政府制定住房市场和保障性住房相关政策提供参考。     

房价逆调控而上涨的政策性原因与对策

针对近期我国房价快速上涨、房地产商及高价商品房主导市场、住房投机愈演愈烈、中低收入阶层住房困难等问题,作者对北京房地产市场进行了调查研究,并从中发现了一些值得探讨的问题.本文通过对廉租房、经济适用房、商品房、出租房现状及相关政策进行客观分析,揭示了我国高房价的症结及一些政策方面的原因.文中以调查研究为依据,提出了强化政府责任、完善住房保障政策的个人看法与建议.     

A re-examination of housing bubbles: Evidence from European countries

This study uses data from six Eurozone countries and the United Kingdom between 1980Q1 and 2018Q4 to examine whether these countries had housing bubbles during the observed period. Whereas typical studies make strictly limited assumptions regarding interest rates, we make an unconventional argument for the necessity of testing the integration relationship between the price–rent ratio and the interest rate reciprocal to determine the existence of housing bubbles. To verify this study’s proposition, two housing bubble indicators were adopted to dynamically examine periods of housing bubbles in European countries by using a series of individual countries and panel data from Eurozone countries. According to the empirical results for individual countries, although the price–rent ratio indicates the occurrence of housing booms in the targeted countries, the evidence for housing bubbles is unclear. The dynamic bubble indicator revealed that housing bubbles occurred in France and Ireland within a short period in 1993Q3 and 2000Q2, respectively. Spain experienced two short-term housing bubbles in 1990Q1 and 2015Q1. The short-term bubbles signify that the housing markets were efficient. Once the price–rent ratio failed to converge toward the nominal interest rate, market traders’ rational behavior can immediately correct the short-term market divergence. The panel data of the Eurozone countries also reveals that simply using the price–rent ratio for examination may underestimate the correction of the housing markets. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of the interest rate in controlling the housing market.     

对限价房政策的经济学分析

"限价房"是政府对房地产市场的一种直接管制,是一种典型的行政调控.政府通过限地价和限房价.直接参与了市场竞争.对限价房政策的经济学分析表明,限价房会导致过度需求、出现销售者偏好,于是,可导致政府偏好代替销售者偏好,限价房还可能造成歧视,致使市场扭由,建筑质量下降,甚至出现黑市,导致腐败和资源浪费.限价房是一种典型的砖头补贴,结论认为,应从砖头补贴走向人头补贴,大力发展廉租房.     

货币和税收政策对我国住房价格的影响——基于VAR模型的实证研究

基于我国1999-2010年房地产市场季度数据,本文建立向量自回归模型(VAR)和向量误差修正模型(VEC),将住房供给和需求同时纳入模型,分析我国利率政策、信贷政策和税收政策对住房价格的影响。结果显示,贷款利率在短期内对住房供给有负效应,但长期效应不明显;贷款规模对住房价格的短期冲击明显,二者之间存在正相关关系;针对保有环节征税可以通过影响住房供给,从而有效抑制住房价格上升。根据我国住房供求特点,应优先选择税收工具,通过促进住房供给实现控制房价的政策目标。     

Divergence in Reservation Prices and Its Impact on Housing Market Liquidity: A Theoretical Analysis

In this paper, we build a two-period English auction model to study the relative movements between buyers’ and sellers’ reservation prices in the housing market. We show that changes in sellers’ reservation prices are jointly determined by changes in buyers’ reservation prices, probability of buyers offering a high or low price, and the arrival rate of buyers. When the divergence between the buyers’ and sellers’ reservation prices widens, the probability of sale increases in the upward market and decreases in the downward market, contributing to the increases or decreases in market liquidity.     

中国城市居民住房支付能力研究

虽然住宅价格是由住宅市场的供给和需求决定的,但从长期来看,住宅价格应该与城市居民家庭的住房支付能力相适应.评价住房支付能力的指标有房价收入比(PIR)和住房可支付性指数(HAI),房价收入比用于判读住房价格是否合理,而住房可支付性指数能够反映家庭购买住房的还贷能力.论文通过计算2004年我国34个主要城市的房价收入比和住房可支付性指数,对我国城市居民的住房支付能力进行了城市排序.参照国外相关指标的评价标准,论文采用Pareto累计图的评价方法,得出了我国当前房价收入比和住房可支付性指数的分布区间.论文的研究成果既可作为政府调控城市住宅市场发展的依据,也可作为居民投资置业的依据.