A panel data-based analysis of factors influencing market demand for Chinese outbound tourism

This paper presents data on the top 50 outbound destinations for Chinese tourists from 2002 to 2013. The total number of Chinese tourists traveling to these 50 destinations accounts for 95.38% of outbound travelers from China. We built a dynamic panel data model to measure factors that influence market demand for Chinese outbound tourism. The results show that economic variables such as income, tourism prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on outbound tourism volume. The effect of bilateral goods trade and leisure time significantly differ between the full sample and the two subsamples, whereas political stability of the destinations and special incidents in China have no significant impact on demand for outbound tourism. Based on these findings, this study proposes strategies to strengthen the management of China’s outbound tourism market.     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论,结合相关研究进展,文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型,以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本,分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明,收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素,对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中,收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大,而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach

This study develops a global vector autoregressive (global VAR or GVAR) model to quantify the cross-country co-movements of tourism demand and simulate the impulse responses of shocks to the Chinese economy. The GVAR model overcomes the endogeneity and over-parameterisation issues found in many tourism demand models. The results show the size of co-movements in tourism demand across 24 major countries in different regions. In the event of negative shocks to China’s real income and China’s tourism price variable, almost all of these countries would face fluctuations in their international tourism demand and in their tourism prices in the short run. In the long run, developing countries and China’s neighbouring countries would tend to be more negatively affected than developed countries.     

Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices

The real exchange rate (REX) has long been used as the proxy for prices in tourism demand models. However it has limitations, particularly when it comes to models of outbound tourism. As an alternative, a price competitiveness index (PCI) is developed and used as a proxy for prices in a model of outbound tourism from Australia. Results obtained show that while REX is statistically insignificant and yields a price elasticity of −0.002, PCI is significant and generates a price elasticity of −1.07. The results obtained show that PCI outperforms REX as the preferred price variable in modelling outbound demand on both theoretic and empirical grounds. Furthermore, this index can be used to monitor the inter-temporal competitiveness of a destination.     

Development Characteristics and Implications of Mainland Chinese Outbound Tourism

This paper provides a thorough examination of the Mainland Chinese demand for outbound travel. It analyses the impacts of the Mainland Chinese outbound tourism market according to factors such as policy, economy and socio-political issues. The origins, destination perceptions and organization of Mainland Chinese outbound tourists are also explained, together with the negative impacts of tourism on Mainland Chinese travellers, travel agencies, national image and economic loss. Finally, the marketing policies for Mainland Chinese outbound tourism in travel agencies, government tourism offices and destinations are examined.     

To go or not to go: travel constraints and attractiveness of travel affecting outbound Chinese tourists to Japan

The fast growth of the Chinese economy has transformed Chinese outbound tourism into one of the major players in the tourism industry worldwide. However, Chinese outbound tourists may still encounter travel constraints in some countries, such as Japan, which has had a close and complicated relationship in history with China. This study adopted the qualitative approach by applying focus group and in-depth interviews to investigate and triangulate the travel barriers affecting Chinese outbound travel to Japan. The findings indicated that domestic nationalist sentiment played a key constraining role in influencing Chinese outbound travel decision-making, followed by current political factors, while quality products and service, as well as social environment encouraged tourists to travel. This research also found that visitors and non-visitors have perception differences in terms of travel barriers and attractiveness of travel.     

Chinese Residents' Demand for Outbound Travel: Evidence from the Chinese Family Panel Studies

This paper investigates potential factors influencing Chinese residents' demand for outbound travel. Based on survey data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies project conducted in 2008, we utilize several discrete choice models to analyze (1) factors explaining Chinese residents' participation in outbound travel in the last five years and (2) factors explaining various types of outbound travel. We highlight the importance of age, hukou type, personal income, education level, domestic tourism participation, foreign language proficiency, life satisfaction, and Internet use to explain Chinese residents' outbound travel. We also observe regional differences and urban–rural differences by estimating the model using different sub-samples. Finally, implications are presented concerning marketing efforts in targeting potential Chinese outbound tourists.     

Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach

This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand. A new price variable based on relative ratios of purchasing power parity index is developed for the substitution analysis. Short-run demand elasticities are calculated based on the estimated error correction almost ideal demand systems. The empirical results reveal significant substitution relationships between Australian domestic tourism and outbound travel to Asia, the UK and the US. This study provides scientific support for necessary policy considerations to promote domestic tourism further.     

Casino tourism,economic inequality,and housing bubbles

Potential linkages among tourism, inequality, and housing are addressed for an integrated analysis in this paper, with Macao treated as a typical case. Casino tourism, albeit performing as a major key to local economic growth, is ultimately vulnerable to external shocks to gambling demand, as evidenced by the current sharp downturn in Macao. We find that faster gaming growth leads to higher income inequality while at the same time both factors are responsible for soaring housing bubbles, which constitute the very source of social tensions as in Macao. Casino tourism if not well managed may not be a panacea for all development goals. The implication for policy derived from this study is that Macao must deal with underlying issues rather than apply palliative measures. Its market failures may necessitate government interventions to ensure social equity and sustainable tourism.     

收入与出境旅游率的非线性关系——基于门槛面板模型的实证证据

在各种有关出境旅游市场影响因素的研究中,收入水平与出境旅游的关系存在着显著的争议。文章判断二者之间存在着非线性关系,且因国家而异。该研究引入门槛回归模型,以世界95个国家和地区为研究总样本,并按照面积大小划分为3组,利用其1995~2011年的人均国民收入、出境旅游率、年龄结构、教育水平和就业水平数据,对收入和出境旅游率之间的相关关系进行了深入分析。研究发现:(1)各样本中,收入与出境旅游率均呈显著非线性相关。(2)样本不同,收入门槛值的数量和位置不同,促使出境旅游快速发展的收入门槛值也不同。说明国土面积对收入与出境旅游的关系具有潜在影响。(3)各控制变量总体上对出境旅游率具有正面影响。(4)中国出境旅游实际表现超过理论基准,处于快速超前发展的阶段。以上研究结果可以为一个国家或地区判定出境旅游的发展阶段及制定合适的旅游政策提供依据。     

The impact of distance on international tourism demand

This study examines the impact of distance on outbound travel demand by comparing departures from 92 source markets to over 4700 discrete destination pairs. Travel to land neighbours dominates outbound travel, accounting for 53% of all departures. Share of departures for travel >5000 km was typically 3% or lower. The study also identified different travel flows depending on the origin region, with share of outbound travel a function of the number and size of receiving countries, as well as the presence of an Effective Tourism Exclusion Zone, a zone where little or no tourism activity occurs.     

The impacts of Australia's departure tax: Tourism versus the economy?

This study estimates the flow and expenditure effects of the recent increase in Australia's Passenger Movement Charge (PMC), as well as the economic impacts on the Australian economy and the tourism industry. After discussing the nature of the PMC, it outlines the types of industry stakeholder concerns as to its effects on tourism both before and after the recent increase. It then presents a framework developed by the authors that can be used to distinguish the effects of the increased PMC on the wider economy and on different tourism markets. A computable general equilibrium model is then used to estimate the economic impacts of the increased charge on different Australian tourism markets – inbound, outbound and domestic. The implications of the modelling results for the validity of the industry criticisms of the PMC are discussed. The results confirm that the tourism industry will suffer, though it also indicates that the Australian economy will gain – thus there is a clash between the industry and wider economic interests. The types of issues addressed in this paper can inform policy making regarding the gainers and losers from departure tax increases in tourism destinations generally.     

Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea

As international tourism is generally considered a luxury good, models to date have shared an understanding that demand is dependent on discretionary income. However, consumption theories predict that a shift in demand can be induced without changes in actual earnings when expectations for future income are adjusted. This presumes demand for international tourism can be influenced by “wealth effects” from real estate and financial assets. This study tested for the wealth effect on Korean outbound travelers during the 20 years between 1989 and 2009. Korea is a unique place to examine in that Korean households possess housing assets and financial assets that are traded actively in markets. The results of this study favored the possibility of a significant wealth effect from housing on outbound travel demand, but not from financial assets. This may be explained by data sensitivity and the relative importance of financial assets in the Korean people's wealth portfolios. Implications and suggestions for future research are provided along with the findings of the study.     

Multilateral political effects on outbound tourism

To capture the role of politics in tourism, we propose a novel measure to quantify political relations based on text analysis of published diplomatic statements. We explain how political relations affect outbound tourist flows from China to Japan and Korea. Estimated on monthly data (1997m1-2018m12), our model shows how China-Japan disputes affect tourist flows to Korea and how China-Korea clashes influence the number of Chinese tourists going to Japan. The political effects are estimated to peak after three months, but half of the effects vanish in six months. We also observe asymmetries in the political effects—the tourists respond more to negative political shocks than to positive ones, and more to territorial disputes than to war history disputes.     

Chinese outbound tourism: An alternative modernity perspective

Chinese outbound tourism has become of great interest to tourism scholars. This paper provides a brief review of the current theoretical discussion about modernity and alternative modernity and their connection to Chinese outbound tourism developments. The paper traces the progress of Chinese outbound tourism via the binary structure-agent approach. Its study integrates the institutional development of the Chinese tourism governing body over four decades as social structure, and as agents, analyzes the changing perceptions of Chinese outbound tourists. The study advocates that the Chinese outbound tourism sector has developed within the scope of alternative modernity. The paper indicates that the development of Chinese outbound tourism reflects a process of developing modern institutions and conceptual modernity over time.     

旅游经济增长及其溢出效应的空间面板计量经济分析

文章首次基于空间面板计量经济学模型,在检验我国省域旅游经济增长是否存在空间依赖性的基础上,估计了资本和劳动对旅游经济增长的贡献,检验了旅游经济增长过程中的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示:2001~2009年间,中国省域旅游经济增长的空间依赖性和集群趋势加强,邻近省域的经济增长及旅游资本投入的空间溢出效应明显;资本和劳动的旅游产出弹性系数均为正,前者对旅游经济增长的贡献大于后者,我国省域尺度的旅游经济增长主要依赖于资本要素投入驱动,呈现出资本密集型特征,劳动力要素的贡献尚未充分发挥出来。政府在制定旅游产业政策和发展规划时,必须致力于加强邻近地区旅游资本和劳动投入的合作与交流,促进旅游经济增长中的资本空间溢出效应,改革旅游业国民收入初次分配及再次分配体制,激活邻近省域旅游劳动力投入与旅游经济增长的空间互动性,以便提高邻近地区及本地区劳动力对旅游经济增长的协同贡献。     

The shares method for revealing latent tourism demand

This paper develops an intuitive methodology to reveal latent tourism demand. The aim is to quantify its scale by distinguishing the pair of origin-destination and the kind of tourism. The methodology starts measuring the market size that depends on origin population size and their willingness to participate in outbound tourism. Additionally, it takes into account the varying preferences of each origin population for different kinds of tourism. Finally, it compares the current market share of tourism with the expected market share, which is estimated using a random parameter logit model. The study draws on data from EU-28 countries. It provides indicators to select target markets to be strengthened and design strategies based on better air connectivity or oriented marketing campaigns.     

Spatial Pattern of Tourist Flows Among the Asia-Pacific Countries: An Examination over a Decade

The spatial dimension of tourism provides insights about travel demands and travel flows and helps destinations in planning, development and management. The last decade has witnessed a steady and rapid growth in the Asia-Pacific region's tourism industry, in terms of both inbound and outbound travel. This particular study aimed to: (a) provide information and explore the changes on the nature of travel flows as measured by the tourist arrivals among the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) member countries for the years of 1995 and 2004; (b) assess general propensity to travel among PATA countries using the concepts of Country Potential Generation Index and Gross Travel Propensity; and (c) examine the shift in the past decade in terms of the relative tourism generation power of PATA countries by comparing and contrasting the 1995 and 2004 indices. The results of the study provide an overview of the spatial patterns of travel flows and travel propensity in Pacific Asia region over a 10-year period. The study demonstrates that the functions of travel flows and indices are complementary and provide an informative picture of spatial travel behavior and demand.     

Are all tourism markets equal? Linkages between market-based tourism demand,quality of life,and economic development in Hong Kong

Tourism markets are heterogeneous, and their performance and effects can be better understood when considered separately. This paper investigates the linkages between tourism demand from several markets and quality of life, using Hong Kong as a case of study. The literature has, initially only considered a unilateral relationship running from aggregate tourism development to residents' quality of life, and a bilateral connection has only recently been recognized. The study contributes to the literature by considering a market-segmented (mainland China, Japan, the U.S., and other markets) approach to tourism demand, using a relatively underemphasized objectively-based method, and by providing building blocks for theoretical propositions. The methodology consists of unit root and cointegration testing, together with the application of the Three-Stage Least Squares method with the Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach on time-series data. The identified market-based differences can help academia and industry in better understanding the diverse markets and building a competitive edge.     

The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism

This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings.