Liberty and the Post‐utilitarian Society

Utilitarian foundations for limited government are shaky insofar as they assume rational and consistent individuals. Recently economists’ assumption of rational actors has come under sustained attack. Behavioural economics has suggested that people are plagued by irrational biases and inconsistencies. These developments have led to a post‐utilitarianism which is held to justify paternalistic interventions by the state via ‘sin taxes’, direct bans or new obligations. Individual responsibility is seriously undermined, as is faith in markets. Supporters of individual freedom need to move away from utilitarian reasoning, reassert core values of autonomy and responsibility, and define strict limits on the scope of government intervention.     

Catholicism and Economics: Towards a “Deeper Reflection on the Nature of the Economy and its Purposes”

Many of the problems neoclassical economic theory has in explaining the real world stem from its narrow view of human nature—the “rational economic man” model, which forces economists to exclude social and historical context. Every social theory starts with a view of human nature that necessarily comes from outside the social sciences. Philosophy and theology are the sources of our ideas about the nature of humans, society, and the good that humans pursue. Catholic Social Thought has a rich understanding of human nature, which includes both the uniqueness of persons and their inherently social nature. Starting from this foundation, economists can develop a deeper understanding of the nature of the economy. Catholic Social Thought does not offer a different economic theory or model, but it does provide an alternative vision upon which more adequate and realistic economic theories can be constructed.     

What Price Drug Use? The Contribution of Economics to an Evidence‐Based Drugs Policy

Abstract.  This paper presents a review of the recent economics literature in the area of illicit drug use. Particular attention is paid to the economics of addiction and the rational addiction model, the welfare economics framework for analysing the social costs of drug use, and the attempts that have been made by economists to evaluate recent or proposed policy interventions. A dominant theme in this review is the problem of poor data availability. This is particularly true when it comes to implementing the Rational Addiction model, but it is also apparent in the literature on estimating the costs of illicit drug use to society as a whole. One of the main conclusions of this review is that until recently public policy has not been particularly influenced by research carried out by economists. It is not clear whether this is because economists have had to grapple with inadequate data, and hence their conclusions are couched in uncertainty, or whether it is because drugs researchers have assumed a very limited role for economists in their analysis.     

Noise Trading and the Management of Operational Risk; Firms,Traders and Irrationality in Financial Markets*

abstract Efficient market models cannot explain the high level of trading in financial markets in terms of asset portfolio adjustment. It is presumed that much of this excessive trading is irrational ‘noise’ trading. A corollary is that there must either be irrational traders in the market or rational traders with irrational aberrations. The paper reviews the various attempts to explain noise trading in the finance literature, concluding that the persistence of irrationality is not well explained. Data from a study of 118 traders in four large investment banks are presented to advance reasons why traders might seek to trade more frequently than financial models predict. The argument is advanced that trades do not simply occur in order to generate profit, but it does not follow that such trading is irrational. Trading may generate information, accelerate learning, create commitments and enhance social capital, all of which sustain traders' long term survival in the market. The paper treats noise trading as a form of operational risk facing firms operating in financial markets and discusses approaches to the management of such risk.     

Market Uncertainty and Socially Embedded Reputation

Both economists and sociologists generally recognize the importance of reputation in coordinating economic transactions. In a perfectly competitive and anonymous market characterized by faceless buyers and sellers, the issue of reputation would be irrelevant and unnecessary. In reality, however, markets are often filled with varying degrees of information asymmetry, which can threaten the very existence of the market system itself. In critical reaction to the standard neoclassical model, some economists, on the one hand, argue that when there is an information problem, reputation serves as a valuable source of market signal of quality. Sociologists of economic life similarly contend that reputation, along with trust, is critical in lowering transaction costs and thereby facilitating various economic activities among individual actors. The purpose of this article is to apply this broad theoretical observation to a specific empirical phenomenon. It does so by highlighting the role of social networks that connect actors on both demand and supply sides of the market. Specifically, this study examines how interpersonal networks in the market for legal services affect the duration of ties between buyers and sellers. Quantitative analysis based on a random sample of Chicago lawyers, a project funded by the American Bar Foundation, reveals that ceteris paribus the lawyer-client relations are significantly driven by social network factors.     

Rational expectations and the econometric modeling of markets subject to uncertainty: A Bayesian approach

Rational expectations theory is synthesized with Bayesian econometric theory to yield econometrically relevant models of competitive markets subject to uncertainty. The theory is used to derive both optimal estimators of the parameters of a Cobb-Douglas production function from time series data, and the equilibrium predictor of a future price. It is shown that a rational expectations price predictor is always an unbiased predictor, but that the converse is not true. It is also shown that the rational expectations equilibrium is a natural extension of the usual notion of a competitive equilibrium.     

Theory, Reality, and Performativity in Markets

A bstract .   The purpose of this article is to analyze the relation between scientific knowledge in the form of theories and the world that such theories are about. The focus is on market theories. I argue that everyday knowledge, conceptualized using the notion of "lifeworld," is the bedrock of scientific knowledge. I also make two distinctions, one between types of markets and one between principles of order in markets. There are two different types of markets, fixed-role markets and switch-role markets, and no existing theory can be used to explain both of them. In fixed-role markets, such as a producer market of garments, actors are identified as either sellers or buyers. In switch-role markets, such as the stock exchange market or currency market, actors are not identified with one role. The other distinction is between standard and status markets. In a status market, order is maintained because the identities of actors on both sides of the market are ranked according to status, which is a more entrenched social construction than the commodity traded in the market. In a market characterized by standards, the situation is reversed: the commodity is a more entrenched social construction than the social status of actors in the market. These distinctions are the backdrop of my analysis of the idea that markets are performed. It is concluded that the performativity approach is useful today for analyzing switch-role markets. A further conclusion is that neoclassical economic theory can be used in understanding switch-role markets, but not fixed-role markets.     

Behavioural Economics: A Virginia Political Economy Perspective

Behavioural economics offers a critique of modern neoclassical economics by providing empirical evidence that the model of rational choice does not accurately describe human decision‐making processes. The existence of cognitive biases, what we might term ‘agent failure’, becomes reason to doubt the efficacy of unhampered markets, and is seen by some as a sufficient condition for government intervention. This article offers a critique of this argument from an Austrian and public choice theory comparative institutions perspective. Agent failure arguments are analogous to market failure arguments of the mid‐twentieth century and the same kinds of responses made against the latter are applied to the former. Behavioural economics arguments for intervention ignore the cognitive biases of political actors, neglect the comparative perspective that results from such biases, and do not examine the ways in which markets are superior to politics in providing the information and incentives actors need to become aware of their errors and correct them. The existence of imperfectly rational agents, like the existence of imperfect markets, is therefore not a sufficient condition for government intervention into the market.     

The Global System of Finance

A bstract .   In the last decades, revolutionary changes in financial markets, instruments, and institutions have stimulated empirical and theoretical investigations into the interaction of the financial and the "real" side of economic systems. While a considerable body of empirical investigations seems to provide evidence of positive correlations between stock market development and economic growth, there is no consensus in other social sciences as to whether there are two-way linkages, and if so, how to conceive a possible mechanism of interaction. Particularly, the hypergrowth and ubiquity of financial markets has triggered controversial debates on how to understand today's economic landscape. With the objective of clarifying the relationship between finance and economy, this article restructures the present debate through the lenses of Talcott Parsons's and Niklas Luhmann's theories of social systems. Basic system-theoretical ideas on social aspects of finance and economy as well as on uncertainty and risk hint at new insights into the global system of finance that might go far beyond explanatory models of causality.     

Predicting Major Economic Events with Accuracy: A New Framework for Scientific Macroeconomic Models

Despite intense studies over the last several hundred years, the questions about causes, forecasting, and prevention of economic crises remain unsolved. The poor performance of macroeconomic models during the Great Recession of 2008 has forced many economists to reexamine macroeconomic theories and search for credible alternatives to the agent‐based and general‐equilibrium models now currently used by most economists. This article derives a new category of macroeconomic model and applies it conceptually to explain the causes of economic crises. This model, known as the indeterministic balance sheet plus (IBS+) model, is a special breed of accounting models. It takes an indeterministic view of future balance sheets. This article proposes a classification of causes of economic crises using IBS+ models to analyze balance sheets of key economic sectors. Most economic crises are caused by mismanagement of balance sheets by key economic players, not by any fundamental flaw of capitalism. The frequency of economic crises can be minimized by proper risk management practices, but economic crises can never be completely eliminated. Historically, treating mismanagement of balance sheets as the main cause of economic crises is a generalization of Austrian business cycle theory, Fisher's debt deflation theory, and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis.     

Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns

This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets, based on crude oil returns and stock index returns. Daily returns from 2 January 1998 to 4 November 2009 of the crude oil spot, forward and futures prices from the WTI and Brent markets, and the FTSE100, NYSE, Dow Jones and S&P500 stock index returns, are analysed using the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti, and Chan (2008), and DCC model of Engle (2002). Based on the CCC model, the estimates of conditional correlations for returns across markets are very low, and some are not statistically significant, which means the conditional shocks are correlated only in the same market and not across markets. However, the DCC estimates of the conditional correlations are always significant. This result makes it clear that the assumption of constant conditional correlations is not supported empirically. Surprisingly, the empirical results from the VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models provide little evidence of volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets. The evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances suggests that VARMA-AGARCH is superior to VARMA-GARCH and CCC.     

Asset pricing for inefficient markets: Evidence from China and India

Over last four decades, evidence of market inefficiencies has been widely documented by several scholars for all major stock markets in the globe. Chinese and Indian markets are not exempt. Inefficiencies in these markets are described by many authors as roots of all mispricing. Mispricing might be the outcome of application of familiar asset pricing models which may mislead an investor into adopting inappropriate policies for his new investments or for reallocating his old investments. In an alternative approach, we propose a transformation on original market returns in the objective of relaxing the strong assumption of market efficiency behind application of an asset pricing model. This modification will widen the scope of rational models on asset pricing ranging from an efficient to an inefficient market.     

Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia

Financial markets in emerging economies are often perceived as more risky than those in developed countries. We investigate whether this is true for loans to SMEs using a unique unbalanced panel of nearly 700 loans made to SMEs in Slovakia between 2000 and 2005. Several probit and panel probit models show that liquidity and profitability factors are important determinants of SME defaults. Moreover, we find that indebtedness significantly increases the probability of default. Liability as proxied by the legal form of SMEs has important incentive effects. Finally, there exist significant differences between sectors. We show that default rates and factors converged to values found in developed financial markets.     

A modified GMDH approach for social science research: exploring patterns of relationships in the data

Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) is a way with which a system of models self-organize themselves by forming higher-order polynomials and selecting the ones with best power of prediction by certain criterion. This method is helpful when we explore patterns of relationships in the data under investigation. In this paper the author presents a modified version of the GMDH algorithm emphasizing the parsimony of models and the behavior of individual parameter estimates as well as of the whole model, and utilizing the consistency and accuracy of bootstrap estimates. This approach is suitable for most research social scientists conduct. An example, the 1907 Romanian Peasant Rebellion, is used to illustrate how to employ the GMDH algorithm when the research topic has been theory-laden. The findings show that GMDH is an appropriate method that social scientists can utilize in their pursuit of a model that is most parsimonious and theoretically meaningful at the same time. Possible extensions of the modified approach, which in its present form works on linear regression type of models, to logit and probit models are also considered.     

Entrepreneurship in the informal economy: commercial or social entrepreneurs?

Recent research has revealed that a large proportion of entrepreneurs start-up their ventures operating on a wholly or partially off-the-books basis. Until now, it has been commonly assumed that those who operate in the informal economy are exclusively commercial entrepreneurs. They are assumed to be rational economic actors who weigh up the benefits of operating off-the-books against the costs of being caught and decide to operate in this manner. The aim of this paper is to evaluate critically this a priori assumption. Reporting evidence from a 2005/6 survey involving face-to-face interviews with 102 informal entrepreneurs in Moscow in Russia, the finding is that such entrepreneurs are not purely commercially driven. Examining their rationales, informal entrepreneurs are found to range from purely rational economic actors pursuing for-profit logics through to purely social entrepreneurs pursuing purely social logics, with the majority somewhere in-between combining both for-profit and social rationales. Neither do their logics remain static over time. What begins as a commercial entrepreneurial venture may become more socially oriented over time or vice versa. So too do their logics vary socio-spatially. Those living in deprived populations are more socially-orientated, whilst those in relatively affluent populations are comparatively more profit-driven. The outcome is a call for a more nuanced explanation of the complex and heterogeneous logics of informal entrepreneurs.     

Collateralized Social Relations: The Social in Economic Calculation

Traditionally, economists have viewed social relations as "friction" or "impediments" to exchange and have excluded social relations from their analyses by assuming autonomous actors. Recently, however, a number of scholars—economists, sociologists, anthropologists, and other social scientists—have begun to discuss the numerous ways in which social arrangements both prompt and channel economic activity. Rational choice theory, social capital and network analysis, and agency and game theory, are among those approaches that consider the effects of social relations on economic action. In this paper we extend that discussion by arguing that social relations can function as "collateral" or assurance that an economic transaction will proceed as agreed by the parties involved. We review recent microeconomic theories and conjecture how they might be developed following this observation, which is derived from sociological and anthropological studies of economic action and organization.     

Impact of value-at-risk models on market stability

Financial institutions around the world use value-at-risk (VaR) models to manage their market risk and calculate their capital requirements under Basel Accords. VaR models, as any other risk management system, are meant to keep financial institutions out of trouble by, among other things, guiding investment decisions within established risk limits so that the viability of a business is not put unduly at risk in a sharp market downturn. However, some researchers have warned that the widespread use of VaR models creates negative externalities in financial markets, as it can feed market instability and result in what has been called endogenous risk, that is, risk caused and amplified by the system itself, rather than being the result of an exogenous shock. This paper aims at analyzing the potential of VaR systems to amplify market disturbances with an agent-based model of fundamentalist and technical traders which manage their risk with a simple VaR model and must reduce their positions when the risk of their portfolio goes above a given threshold. We analyse the impact of the widespread use of VaR systems on different financial instability indicators and confirm that VaR models may induce a particular price dynamics that rises market volatility. These dynamics, which we have called `VaR cycles’, take place when a sufficient number of traders reach their VaR limit and are forced to simultaneously reduce their portfolio; the reductions cause a sudden price movement, raise volatility and force even more traders to liquidate part of their positions. The model shows that market is more prone to suffer VaR cycles when investors use a short-term horizon to calculate asset volatility or a not-too-extreme value for their risk threshold.     

An agent-based model for financial vulnerability

This study addresses a critical regulatory shortfall by developing a platform to extend stress testing from a microprudential approach to a dynamic, macroprudential approach. This paper describes the ensuing agent-based model for analyzing the vulnerability of the financial system to asset- and funding-based fire sales. The model captures the dynamic interactions of agents in the financial system extending from the suppliers of funding through the intermediation and transformation functions of the bank/dealers to the financial institutions that use the funds to trade in the asset markets. The model replicates the key finding that it is the reaction to initial losses, rather than the losses themselves, that determine the extent of a crisis. By building on a detailed mapping of the transformations and dynamics of the financial system, the agent-based model provides an avenue toward risk management that can illuminate the pathways for the propagation of key crisis dynamics such as fire sales and funding runs.     

An application of search theory to the analysis of regional labour markets

This paper argues that the theoretical framework conventionally used by regional economists when analysing labour markets does not allow the spatial dimension of these markets to be discussed in a wholly satisfactory way. Search theory, which has been little used in regional economics, offers a means of overcoming this limitation. A search theory of labour markets is developed which includes as an exogenous variable the cost of travelling between home and work. The theory is shown to imply an inverse relationship between ‘accessibility to jobs’ and ‘duration of unemployment’.