日本增速换挡过程中需求结构变迁对中国的启示*

本文利用非竞争型投入产出表比较分析了日本在1955-2011年间、中国在1987-2012年间的最终需求和所诱发的产业部门对总产出增长的影响。通过分析日本从高速增长期到中速增长期、再到经济低迷期两次增速换挡过程中的需求动力变化趋势,本文认为中国在向中高速增长期的转型过程中：（1）消费作为经济增长的稳定性力量,将逐渐成为首要贡献因素,但其拉动作用将呈下降趋势,应重点发展流通服务业和工商服务业,同时应做好机械制造业和传统制造业的升级创新;（2）投资仍然是中高速增长的重要贡献因素,机械制造业对投资的重要性将上升,基础设施业对投资的重要性将下降;（3）出口对中国经济的重要性将有所回调,但仍具有较大成长空间,应重点提高机械制造业和化工业的国际竞争力。     

日本对华直接投资对中日贸易影响的计量分析

利用1986—2010年的时间序列数据,运用Johanson协整检验和Granger因果检验,分析日本对华直接投资对中日贸易所产生的影响。实证分析结果表明,在长期内日本对华累计直接投资和日本对华进出口之间存在长期关系,并日本对华累计直接投资对日本对华出口和进口产生不同的影响,且累计直接投资与日本对华出口之间存在格兰杰意义上的因果关系。从中得出日本对华直接投资发生了结构性变化,中国进入＂世界市场＂时代的结论。     

Financial advice and individual investors’ investment decisions

Findings from previous studies generally indicate that relying on advice from financial advisors is associated with investment decisions. This study uses data from the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to mainly investigate three types of advisors: (a) financial planners, (b) accountants, and (c) lawyers. Getting investment advice from financial planners is found to be positively associated with stock ownership, while this relationship is negative for individual investors relying on advice from lawyers. Evidence from this study also suggests that some personal characteristics, such as age, education, risk tolerance may play a key role in shaping individual investors’ investment decisions.     

成(都)绵(阳)德(阳)高新技术产业带发展研究

构建成(都)绵(阳)德(阳)高新技术产业带对四川和西部地区知识经济的发展、可持续发展的实施和经济增长方式的转变均具有重要意义。在分析成(都)绵(阳)德(阳)高新技术产业带发展条件的基础上,探讨了成(都)绵(阳)德(阳)高新技术产业带发展的战略。并针对该带发展中存在的问题,提出了相应措施：①进一步完善高新技术开发区的建设,促进高新技术产业的发展;②充分发挥区域优势,建立具有特色的高新技术产业群;③发展风险投资,拓宽投资渠道;④将高新技术产业发展与传统产业改造结合起来,促进区域经济全面发展;⑤强化政府的导向作用,加强宏观调控。     

后危机时代中国经济增长的稳态路径研究——基于四万亿投资冲击下的偏离与均衡分析

四万亿投资虽已接近收官,但投资对经济的影响远没有结束,后危机时期经济调整任务艰巨而且复杂。基于Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型探究四万亿投资对经济稳态路径的调整作用后发现,四万亿投资冲击在经济危机中起到了较好的熨平周期的作用,在投资冲击下经济均衡恢复的半衰期为20.6年;四万亿投资的筹资方式、投资方向将对经济增长的均衡路径形成不同影响,更多吸纳民间资本和科学的投资方向能提高经济的均衡福利水平。     

EC INTEGRATION AND JAPANESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE EC

This study proposes two hypotheses to identify the cause(s) behind the short-term cyclical Japanese manufacturing foreign direct investment in the European Community (EC) in the late 1980s and early 1990s: (i) a catch-up process of Japanese firms in anticipation of EC single market integration in 1993 and (ii) the so-called bubble economic phenomenon caused by the overheated economy following expansionary monetary policy in Japan in the late 1980s. Applying multinomial logit models to the data on parent firms of 283 Japanese manufacturing subsidiaries established in the EC from 1988 to 1992 reveals strong support for the bubble economy hypothesis but not for the catch-up hypothesis. Results also show that under a bubble economy situation, tax-related incentive policies in host countries—e.g., an investment tax allowance for foreign direct investment—are quite important in attracting Japanese firms.     

日元升值后日本科技投入的变化

二战后至70年代为经济高速增长时期,日本形成政府护航,企业投入为主的科技投入模式。20世纪70至90年代的日元大幅升值,使得这种模式受到冲击,为此,日本政府对科技投入进行了一些调整。本文主要对日元升值后日本科技投入的变化进行了分析和总结。     

从经济学角度看“后奥运经济”

"后奥运经济"可能对主办城市和主办国的经济造成巨大危害,其原因是多方面的,既有宏观方面的原因,也有中观方面的原因,同时还有微观方面的原因.为了有效降低和消除"后奥运经济"的危害,应该加强宏观调控,有效调节奥运前后的供求;改革奥运投融资体制,提高投资效率;促进体育、旅游和文化产业大发展,增加后奥运消费需求;进行合理的奥运规划与设计,倡导"节俭办奥运";尝试多城市共同举办奥运会,有效分散和化解"后奥运经济"风险.     

Australia, Japan and the OECD: GDP Rankings and Revealed Preference

Data on volumes and prices of consumption and investment are used to compare Australian real GDP for 1990 with the other OECD countries. Australian consumption patterns, including leisure, and price structure are very different from most other countries and especially from those of Japan. The Australian bundle of consumption, investment and leisure is revealed preferred to that of Japan and a number of other countries which are conventionally ranked above Australia in comparisons of real GDP per capita at international prices.     

Fiscal multipliers in good times and bad times

This paper estimates the magnitudes of government spending and tax multipliers within a regime-switching framework for the U.S. economy during the period 1949:1–2006:4. Our results show that the magnitudes of spending multipliers are larger during periods of low economic activity, while the magnitudes of tax multipliers are larger during periods of high economic activity. We also show that the magnitudes of fiscal multipliers got smaller for episodes of low growth, while they got larger for episodes of high growth in the post 1980 period. Analyzing the effects of government spending and taxes on consumption and investment spending indicates that the magnitude of the effects of fiscal shocks on consumption and investment is very small.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Female Education,Capital Formation,and Economic Growth in Japan and South Korea

ABSTRACT

The influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on host country‘s economic growth is a widely explored issues in the existing economic literature. This study attempts to examine the role of foreign direct investment, capital formation, and expansion of female education on economic growth of Japan during the period 1971–2014, using time series observations. The study further makes a comparison regarding the association with FDI and economic growth with South Korea, another major OECD economy of Asia The study utilises the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration to examine the long run causality association among the variables. Today, for sustainable economic development the social and institutional policy issues are important. The paper explores one such social issue, namely gender and economic prosperity. This paper has novel contributions in the current research on time series, econometric analysis for the following reasons: (1) it has investigated the relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and capital formation in a gendered differential framework (utilising the role of human capital formation among men versus women; (2) the study covers a long period and more recent time period (till 2014), which concurs with the upsurge of world FDI movements and (3) the study also explores the major structural breaks of the two economies and how economic growth is impacted thereof.     

The determinants of investment in information and communication technologies

In this paper, we assess the determinants of information and communication technology (ICT) investment at the macro-level, for a panel of 10 advanced countries, in the period 1992–2005. We investigate the idea that, since ICTs are general purpose technologies, the decision to invest in these technologies is strongly affected by the general business environment in which the investment takes place. The empirical results are consistent with this idea: facilitating factors such as changes in market regulation, amount of human capital, expenditure on R&D, and the share of the dynamic services sector in the economy, positively influence investment in ICT.     

Economic consequences of an aging population

Europe and Japan are experiencing the aging of their populations. Aging implies a restructuring of the economy. Political issues which arise in an aging society include 1) a voting majority for the interests of the elderly, 2) a voting majority of females, 3) the domination of the decision power in corporate and similar ruling bodies, and 4) unemployment or a long wait for promotion for younger people. Economic issues of an aging society include 1) population aging often occurs under reduced rates of growth of per capita national income, 2) the relative economic status of the elderly very much depends on the currently existing tax transfer systems, and 3) the income of families whose head is over age 65 has generally been more unequally distributed than the income for younger families. Issues concerning the labor supply of the elderly include 1) the availability of pension income and health limitations strongly influence decisions to retire and 2) older workers become disheartened and choose early retirement when facing bad reemployment prospects. In general, population aging is likely to have its most substantive effect on the overall level of productivity in an economy where technical knowledge is changing rapidly and strong competition necessitates a high degree of adaptability of the labor force.     

ESTIMATES OF INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT BY INDUSTRY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN JAPAN

In estimating intangible investment in Japan at the industry level, we find a high intangible investment/gross value added ratio in the information technology (IT) sector and negative growth rates in intangible capital in 13 industries over the decade from 2000. When we examine the impacts of intangible investment on total factor productivity growth, we find a significant and positive effect on total factor productivity growth in the market economy. In a revised estimation that considers intertemporal knowledge spillovers, the estimated rate of return on intangibles in the IT sector is quite high after the IT revolution. The results imply that intangible assets have been underinvested in the IT sector.     

我国宏观经济调控效果的辩证分析

各级党和政府提高驾驭市场经济的能力首先体现在对宏观经济形势的把握和调控上."加大宏观调控,预防经济过热",成为近两年我国宏观经济调控工作的主旋律,同时,也是近几年我国经济的基本走势和政策取向.我国政府采取宏观调控的方法和措施是:调整汇率,解决、推动经济转向;调整利率,适当加息,遏制投资和贷款的过快增长;调整产业结构.宏观调控中存在的问题,从调控的手段上看是"三多三少".     

The demand and supply for investment goods: does the market clear?

Standard theoretical considerations suggest that the quantity and price of a good are jointly determined by supply and demand. In the literature on physical investment, however, attention has been focused almost exclusively on the demand side. This paper considers the theoretical and statistical problems that arise when the demand and supply sides of the market for investment goods are estimated simultaneously. One of the important problems is dealing with the possibility that the price may not adjust instantaneously to clear the market.The model is estimated using data from post-war Japan. The two most important results that emerge are: 1) The long-run supply curve of investment goods is virtually horizontal; and 2) The market appears to be characterized by equilibrium.     

Foreign Investment and National Interests in the Russian Oil and Gas Industry

This article examines the political economy of foreign direct investment in the Russian oil and gas industry in order to explain the limited role of foreign capital in this sector. There are three forms of foreign direct investment in the Russian oil and gas industry: (1) joint ventures, (2) investment within the framework of a production sharing agreement (PSA) and (3) foreign equity investment. The development of these three forms of foreign direct investment is analysed with special reference to the interests of the parties involved, before a conclusion on the political factors determining the conditions for foreign investment is made.     

Asymmetric reimbursement system in an environmental conflict

This article explores how a fair-minded regulator has to set policy through an asymmetric reimbursement. The lawyer for a citizen group works on a contingent-fee basis, whereas a polluting firm has either in-house legal advice or lawyers on retainer. Under an asymmetric reimbursement rule we show: (i) the case goes to settlement if the objective merits of the case favour the citizen group; (ii) whereas it goes to trial, the probability winning the citizen group has is less than 50%, and the reimbursement policy incurs the total effort in trial to increase if the merits of the case favour the firm.     

Financial development in adversarial and inquisitorial legal systems

This paper aims to understand why common law countries have more developed financial markets than civil law countries. One difference between these two legal origins is the procedure of evidence collection for a trial: It is adversarial in common law and inquisitorial in civil law. The adversarial system delegates the collection of evidence to a larger extent to lawyers than the inquisitorial system does. The paper presents a model of law and finance in which investors use courts to enforce their financial contracts with entrepreneurs. Investors are willing to lend more if courts collect evidence more efficiently. Financial markets are more developed in the adversarial than in the inquisitorial system if investors are richer than entrepreneurs or if lawyers are more productive than judges. Manipulation of evidence by lawyers has an ambiguous impact on finance.     

FOREIGN TAKEOVERS AND NEW INVESTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES

This study is unique in several respects. First, it reviews the characteristics of the top 10 industries targeted for foreign direct investment (FDI) activity in the United States between 1979 and 1987. It analyzes both overall FDI activity and new plant and expansion FDI activity. The study summarizes and tests alternative hypotheses regarding the determinants of FDI in the United States by all countries, by the United Kingdom, by the European Community, by Japan, and by Canada.
Large and growing product markets in an expanding economy have attracted FDI in the United States. Exchange rate movements have prompted opportunistic decisions to invest in U.S. production facilities. Investors' superior management skills appear to have prompted takeovers, while efforts to realize technological advantages of new physical capital and of relatively large operating plants have fostered plant and expansion investments.
Evidence exists that a desire to circumvent current—but not potential—trade restrictions has motivated foreign direct investment. FDI activities are not associated with concentrated or heavily unionized industries. Highly protected industries have attracted heavier equity FDI by Japan and heavier new plant FDI by all sources and Canada. No evidence exists that FDI in the United States by Japan or anyone else is targeted to undercut union-dominated firms or to arrest the spread of protectionist trade policies.