Metering motorbike mobility: informal transport in transition?

Vast numbers of people in rapidly growing cities throughout the developing world depend on informal transport services for their mobility needs. Thus far the field of transition studies has addressed the dynamics of socio-technical change in situations where regimes of automobility and sanctioned public transport constitute the dominant order, but not in contexts of cities in the developing world, where informal transit thrives. In this paper we enquire about stability and prospects for change in these kinds of socio-technical systems. To this end, we trace the evolution of Bangkok's motorcycle taxi industry including recent efforts to introduce a potentially radical innovation: an information and communications technology (ICT) platform used as a taximeter. The paper concludes that innovations in informal urban transport are opening up alternative mobility pathways for the developing world, which might even spread far beyond their original confines into the West; and that the persistence of informal transport systems and the proliferation of innovations within those systems in developing countries prove to be relevant phenomena for defining prominent topics on the agenda of (sustainability) transitions research.     

Trends in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars and buses

In this work we develop aggregate car ownership and bus fleet models in order to forecast and compare fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and buses. Greece was selected as a case study, being a country fairly representative of lower-income Mediterranean and Eastern European countries and data were collected for the period 1970 to 2002. Percent adults in the population, per capita gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, car occupancy and bus kilometers were predictors included in the car ownership and bus fleet multiple regression models. A shift in the overall trend of both models around 1995 was explained as a slope change of per capita gross domestic product, possibly reflecting the impact of a boom of the Greek Stock Market along with a retirement program for older vehicles. Predictor variables were forecast via Box-Jenkins and the models were subsequently used to develop car ownership and bus fleet forecasts to the year 2010. We predict that the contribution of cars to total CO₂ emissions will rise to an astounding 95% of total CO₂ emissions from road passenger transport (excluding taxis and mopeds), an effect expected in other Mediterranean and Eastern European countries with socioeconomic characteristics similar to Greece. Suggestions for further research include developing regional car ownership forecasts in order to compare the dynamics of different regions within a country and looking into other land transportation means (such as mopeds, taxicabs and railway).     

城市黑车治理的制度经济学分析

以制度经济学的方法,对城市黑车现象中折射出的问题进行分析与探讨,从市场基础出发,通过简单博弈模型的构建分析黑车经营与管理背后的利益角逐,指出该领域内存在的政府规制俘虏,并针对政府规制的局限,提出从制度构建角度出发,更多运用公共选择的方式,赋予利益表达以制度化的渠道以达成对城市综合性问题的有效治理。     

Optimal taxation of car ownership, car use and public transport: Insights derived from a discrete choice numerical optimization model

We formulated and numerically evaluated a model of car ownership, car use and public transport use for peak and off-peak hours of the day. The model was used to study the optimal tax structure for passenger transport in Belgium, with special emphasis on the optimal tax treatment of diesel versus gasoline cars. We obtained a number of interesting results. First, if the government can set all fixed and variable transport taxes optimally, the higher marginal external cost of diesel use implies that the optimal tax per kilometre for the use of a diesel car is higher than for the use of a gasoline car. Moreover, high congestion implies that the taxes on car use in the peak period are more than twice their current levels. However, the optimal tax on ownership of a diesel car is some 200€ below its current level. Second, if the government uses kilometre taxes that do not differentiate between fuel types, the optimal ownership tax on a diesel car is twice as high as the tax on a gasoline car. Furthermore, if political constraints restrict user taxes to their current levels, we find that optimal ownership taxes on diesel cars double, whereas those on gasoline cars rise by 30%. Finally, subsidies to public transport are found to be optimal as long as variable car taxes are not differentiated between periods.     

Pricing strategies: who leads and who follows in the air and rail passenger markets in Italy

In this paper, we aim at empirically uncovering the existence of price leadership in the passenger transport market, whose oligopolistic structure facilitates the strategic interaction among companies, with price being one of the principal elements of competition. The strategic interaction is particularly favoured by the fact that prices are easily observable online by all competitors. The analysis focuses on selected Italian city-pair markets that differ from one another with respect to the degree of inter- and intra-modal competition and to the characteristics of the transport services provided. We exploit this heterogeneity to study transport operators’ strategic interactions in different competitive environments. We find evidence of the existence of price leadership, even though results differ across city-pair markets. In particular, it emerges that the incumbent operator, in either the air or the rail sector, always holds the role of leader.     

Struggle for Survival in the Deregulated Market: Re-commodification and Informalisation of the Taxi Sector in Stockholm

This paper investigates the process of the informalization of the Swedish taxi industry, focusing on how this process has been manifested in Stockholm’s taxi market. This process has been analysed partly in its particular, local and sector-specific context, as it has been affected by the deregulation of the taxi sector, and partly in its relationship to the broader context of economic and political changes to which all contemporary capitalistic (welfare) states are exposed. This study raises questions about actual common sense discourses on the issue of irregularities in the taxi industry, and offers an alternative perspective both on the ongoing process of informalization, and on the role of various economic actors in that process, including the state.     

Struggle for Survival in the Deregulated Market: Re-commodification and Informalisation of the Taxi Sector in Stockholm

This paper investigates the process of the informalization of the Swedish taxi industry, focusing on how this process has been manifested in Stockholm’s taxi market. This process has been analysed partly in its particular, local and sector-specific context, as it has been affected by the deregulation of the taxi sector, and partly in its relationship to the broader context of economic and political changes to which all contemporary capitalistic (welfare) states are exposed. This study raises questions about actual common sense discourses on the issue of irregularities in the taxi industry, and offers an alternative perspective both on the ongoing process of informalization, and on the role of various economic actors in that process, including the state.     

Standard costs of regional public rail passenger transport: evidence from Italy

ABSTRACT

The paper estimates the standard cost in Italian regional public rail passenger transport services (LPTR), depending on service characteristics. The results highlight the crucial role of: number of seats per ride, commercial speed, service size and length of rail tracks. The model also shows the positive link between investment in rolling stock and the unit cost of the service. Finally, based on the empirical evidence, we propose regulatory adjustments to accomplish policy targets regarding the fair allocation of public LPTR funds to Regions and Local Authorities and a more efficient use of (scarce) local and national public resources.     

Sustainable mobility transitions and the challenge of countervailing trends: the case of personal aeromobility

Research on sustainable mobility transitions has focused on battery-electric vehicles, urban ‘smart’ cars, fuel-cell powered transport modes and power-assisted bicycles. While these studies have usefully exposed some of the dynamics governing sociotechnical change, developments outside the purview of sustainability have been largely ignored. A critical area of neglect concerns the growing popularity of personal aeromobility. Passenger dissatisfaction with commercial airlines, public concerns about terrorism, increasing affluence and creative marketing have expanded interest in private aviation. In parts of the USA, customised air travel is becoming a straightforward and affordable transport alternative. This article describes the mounting popularity of four segments of this trend: business/personal airplane acquisition, fractional aircraft ownership, flight-time cards and air taxis. It also highlights the role that the federal government is currently playing to overcome the technological obstacles to more pervasive personal aeromobility. A concluding section considers the ramifications of these activities on contemporary efforts to foster sustainable mobility and to conceptualise viable transition pathways.     

Lead markets and regulation: a framework for analyzing the international diffusion of environmental innovations

Environmental regulations are often intended to stimulate the generation and adoption of eco-efficient innovations. An important argument in the public debate is also the creation of new markets for environmentally benign products, processes and services in other countries and the generation, as a result, of export opportunities for the pioneering country (lead markets). Research on lead markets has not, however, focused on environmental innovations to date. We therefore extend the lead market model to environmental innovations and take particular account of the peculiarities of such innovations, in particular, the public good character of environmental benefits and the role of regulations. This approach is applied to two case studies: wind energy and fuel-efficient passenger cars. In both cases, the innovation was initially adopted in one country. Other countries subsequently adopted the same innovation design favored by the lead market which, in turn, developed into a large exporter in the wind generation and car industries, respectively. We discuss the regulations employed and the reasons for the international success of the innovations induced by them. Our findings demonstrate that when supported by global demand or regulatory trends, strict regulation results in the creation of lead markets. Finally, we provide recommendations on how our model could be used for further research and in the development of a coordinated environmental and innovation policy.     

基于城市微观土地利用影响下的碳排放评测研究——以南京市某单位为例

文章借助连续逼近法与交通周转量法构建城市微观土地利用影响下的碳排放评测模型,并依据该模型对南京市某单位双园区土地利用模式所带来的碳排放进行了评测。结果表明：（1）不同交通方式下的碳排放量不同,城市公交交通方式年碳排放量最低,为203008.80kg;私人轿车交通方式年碳排放量最高,为659398.01kg。（2）同一交通方式下,不同等级车型的碳排放量相同。单位通勤交通方式中,中型客车〉大型客车〉轻型客车;私人轿车交通方式中,中级轿车〉普通轿车〉微型轿车。据此定量化城市微观土地利用与碳排放的关系,为土地利用配置过程中碳减排的研究提供参考。     

1990年代中国城际铁路集装箱运输网络空间演变

货流联系是城市相互作用的重要方面,随着经济的发展和向消费社会的转型,我国在1990年代的高附加值产品的运输显著增强.尤其集装箱运输这一高附加值的运输方式,在空间分布上发生了重要的演变.文章针对1991年和2000年200个左右城市间的集装箱进行实证分析,通过距离衰减规律、首位联系模型等对中国城际铁路集装箱流进行了透视,发现1990年代各区的集装箱流变化趋势不同,但总体上发生了分散化的演变.本文还进一步对此做出了分析.     

交通基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长:来自中国的实证研究

This paper develops an empirical model to test the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on economic growth. It uses spatial econometric techniques and provincial panel data of China from 1993 to 2004 to analyze the contribution of transport infrastructure to the economic growth of local province and its spatial spillover effects on the economic growth of other provinces. The main findings include: (1) Transport infrastructure and economic growth of China show an evident pattern of spatial clustering. They largely congregate in developed eastern coastal regions, forming a gradient gradually diminishing from east to west. (2) Output elasticity of local transport infrastructure is 0.106, between the values calculated by early researchers with time series data and panel data. (3) Spatial output spillovers from transport infrastructure are largely positive, but evidences of negative spatial spillovers are also found with population density spatial weights matrix model.      

Endogenous Categorization in Insurance

This paper analyzes the welfare properties of equilibrium when insurers use observable actions to classify consumers into different risk categories, and consumers' choice is influenced by the insurance market consequences of their actions. Specifically, we analyze this problem at the example of a car insurance market, in which individual preferences over car types are correlated with risk type and used by insurance firms for ratemaking. Equilibrium premiums for each car are determined by the losses that it generates. Consumers take insurance premiums into account when deciding which car to buy. This creates an incentive to buy the car that is preferred by more low risk individuals. From a utilitarian point of view, this incentive is excessive. Depending on parameters, it may even be possible to construct a tax‐subsidy scheme with balanced budget that Pareto improves on the market equilibrium.     

基于产品差异化的乘用车产品定价策略研究

我国乘用车市场的产品之间存在三种产品差异,即垂直差异、水平差异和信息差异。垂直差异存在于不同细分市场的产品之间,水平差异存在于同一细分市场的产品之间,而信息差异使得所有产品分为领导产品和跟随产品两大类型。这三种差异的存在使得企业只有根据自身产品的情况合理地制定价格才能实现利润最大化。如果企业的产品是跟随产品,则它应该以同细分市场的领导产品为标杆制定价格。如果企业的产品是领导产品,则它应该与相关细分市场的领导产品保持合理价差。上海大众汽车公司自2001年以来的主要产品的定价行为及效果,验证了该分析框架在现实中的有效性。     

基于重力模型的河南省公路客流空间运输联系

运用重力模型,在ArcGIS平台上通过VBA编程,模拟河南省公路客流空间运输联系。节点连接图表明,河南省区域公路客流连接关系呈明显的轴—辅系统特征。通过潜能和交流量对比,发现从河南省西北的济源市到东南的周口市、从濮阳市到洛阳市两条交通优先发展带,可为交通规划提供借鉴。     

中国制度变迁的演进论解释

:本文在哈耶克的社会秩序二元观的基础上 ,提出一个分析中国制度变迁的初步的演进论框架 ,然后证明 ,中国的改革过程交织着政府选择外部规则和社会成员选择内部规则的双重秩序演化路径 ,前者是表面上的主线 ,实际的主线则是后者 ;并且两种规则之间的冲突与协调贯穿整个制度变迁过程 ,在这个过程中 ,中央政府更多地起法官裁决作用 ,而地方政府更多地从事制度企业家活动。总的来看 ,改革经历了政府逐步退出直接的制度创新领域及外部规则逐步缩减作用范围的过程 ,也就是内部规则的逐步发育和强大的过程 ,这是中国市场化的本质。     

The effects of high-speed rail on air passenger transport in China

This study investigates the effects of high-speed rail (HSR) on China’s air passenger transport from the perspective of airports. The difference-in-differences approach is used with unbalanced panel data of 206 airports over the period from 2006 to 2015. Our estimation results found that the negative effects of HSR on the growth rate of China’s air passengers is both statistically and economically significant. However, these adverse effects are not catastrophic.     

A Systematic Assessment of the Environmental Impacts of Transport Policy

This paper presents an integrated urbanpassenger transport model system for evaluatingthe impact of a large number of interrelatedpolicy instruments on urban travel behaviourand the environment. The model system has fourintegrated modules defining household locationand automobile choices, commuter workplace andcommuting travel choices, non-commuting travelactivity, and worker distributed workpractices. The demand model system, estimatedas a set of discrete and continuous choicemodels, is combined with a set of equilibratingcriteria in each of the location, automobileand commuting markets to predict overall demandfor passenger travel in various socio-economicsegments, automobile classes and geographiclocations. We illustrate the diversity of thesystem by applying the integrated system toPerth (Western Australia), in the context ofassessing their impacts on greenhouse gasemissions. The model system is embedded withina decision support system to make it anattractive suite of tools for practitioners.     

Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: The approach of strategic niche management

The unsustainability of the present trajctories of technical change in sectors such as transport and agriculture is widely recognized. It is far from clear, however, how a transition to more sustainable modes of development may be achieved. Sustainable technologies that fulful important user requirements in terms of performance and price are most often not available on the market. Ideas of what might be more sustainable technologies exist, but the long development times, uncertainty about market demand and social gains, and the need for change at different levels in organization, technology, infastructure and the wider social and institutional context-provide a great barrier. This raises the question of how the potential of more sustainable technologies and modes of development may be exploited. In this article we describe how technical change is locked into dominant technological regimes, and present a perspective, called strategic niche management, on how to expedite a transition into a new regime. The perspective consists of the creation and/or management of nichesfor promising technologies.