中国经济增长和结构调整

本文创立一个新的分析体系并用此来解释中国经济飞速增长的源泉,传统的索洛方法只包括投入与技术进步两方面内容。我们创新地引进结构调整作为第三个增长的源泉。实证研究结果表明,结构调整可以通过以下方式来促进经济增长,即通过将资源从低效率的部门转移到高效率的部门,尤其是将农村剩余劳动力转移到乡镇企业生产上。我们还发现资本投资在对农业生产及乡镇企业的回报率比在城市要高许多,表明在农村地区缺乏投资。另一方由于有大量的剩余劳动力,农村的劳动生产率还是很低。因此,进一步发展生产力,促进跨部门跨地区的劳动力流动,对提高整个经济效率将会有决定性作用。     

中国经济增长和结构调整

本创立一个新的分析体系并用此来解释中国经济飞速增长的源泉，传统的索洛方法只包括投入与技术进步两方面内容。我们创新地引进结构调整作为第三个增长的源泉。实证研究结果表明，结构调整可以通过以下方式来促进经济增长，即通过将资源从低效率的部门转移到高效率的部门，尤其是将农村剩余劳动力转移到乡镇企业生产上。我们还发现资本投资在对农业生产及乡镇企业的回报率比在城市要高许多，表明在农村地区缺乏投资。另一方由于有大量的剩余劳动力，农村的劳动生产率还是很低。因此，进一步发展生产力，促进跨部门跨地区的劳动力流动，对提高整个经济效率将会有决定性作用。     

我国农民收入增长缓慢因素分析

农民增收问题是"三农"问题的核心.本文通过对农民收入增长变化及特征、各种制约农民收入增长的因素进行分析,得出目前我国农民收入增长问题是一个值得政府高度重视的问题的结论.同时,从大力发展乡镇企业,加强农村剩余劳动力转移;努力促进农业科技进步;加快农业产业结构调整;提高农村人口的教育水平等方面提出促进农民收入增长的建议.     

乡镇企业再创业的关键是进行经济结构的战略性调整

目前 ,乡镇企业结构不合理 ,主要表现在 :与国有企业结构趋同 ,未能形成自己的优势和特色 ;经营规模狭小 ,无法形成规模效益 ;技术装备低下 ,企业创新能力弱。在这种情况下 ,乡镇企业要实现大的发展 ,就必须进行经济结构的战略性调整。第一 ,乡镇企业结构调整是转移农村剩余劳动力的迫切要求。目前我国农村有 4 5亿劳动力 ,但随着农业集约化程度的不断提高 ,约有 2亿剩余劳动力。这些剩余劳动力有的通过继续向农业内部的深度、广度进军实现就业 ,有的通过空间转移到城市实现就业 ,而绝大部分要通过乡镇企业消化吸收。因此调整乡镇企业结构 …     

关于农业剩余劳动力转移的几点认识

改革开放以来,农村劳动力呈现出从最初的就近转移到跨区域和梯度转移,这种大规模的人口流动过程对中国的经 济增长以及农村经济的繁荣曾经产生较大的影响,并孕育着新的契机。本文计算了农村剩余劳动力转移对经济增长的贡献, 并从正反两方面,论述了1991-2002年农村剩余劳动力转移对于农业乡镇企业以及经济增长的贡献。     

论农村剩余劳动力转移的城市经济发展瓶颈--以河南省为例

城市经济发展是农村剩余劳动力转移拉力产生的主要源泉.河南城市经济发展水平低、增长速度慢以及经济结构层次不高所导致的就业空间小,是制约农村劳动力和人口向城市转移的最主要因素.在农村剩余劳动力转移政策方面,需要转变观念,由过去单纯重视农村工业化的推动作用,转移到重视城市经济发展的拉动作用.兼顾城市经济总量增长和就业机会的增加,优化产业结构,大力发展第三产业以及调整所有制结构、大力发展非公有制经济,是加快河南农村剩余劳动力转移的重要途径.     

乡镇企业吸纳劳动力边际递减与剩余劳动力反梯度转移

<正> 在中国农村巨大剩余劳动力就业压力下,发展乡镇企业被主流观点看成是这种剩余劳动力的“吸纳器”,因为城镇部门为农业剩余劳动力所提供的就业机会是极其有限的。从全国情况来看,在农业剩余劳动力的转移总量中,大约只有12％的劳动力转移到各类城镇部门,而约有88％的劳动力是在农村工业、商业及服务部门实现就业转移的。因此,要把农业剩余劳动力转移的基点放在农村乡镇企业发展上(陈吉元,1994)。但是,也有观点认为,农村乡镇企业的“大推进”式扩展已近极限,原有模式的“离土不离乡”对剩余劳动力的容量愈来愈小(陈东琪,     

我国农民收入增长缓慢因素分析

农民增收问题是＂三农＂问题的核心。本文通过对农民收入增长变化及特征、各种制约农民收入增长的因素进行分析,得出目前我国农民收入增长问题是一个值得政府高度重视的问题的结论。同时,从大力发展乡镇企业,加强农村剩余劳动力转移;努力促进农业科技进步;加快农业产业结构调整;提高农村人口的教育水平等方面提出促进农民收入增长的建议。     

经济危机背景下的农村剩余劳动力转移探析

2008年以来的经济危机直接影响到农村剩余劳动力的转移.转移农村剩余劳动力是关系到农村经济可持续发展及社会长治久安的重大问题.面对农民就业的新特征,需对农村剩余劳动力重新界定.经济危机导致农民进城务工机会减少,这就需要充分挖掘农村自身就业潜力,让农民不脱离本乡本土就能实现就业;以加强农业基础设施建设为切入点增加农民就业岗位;完善农村劳动力转移市场,实现城乡劳动力市场一体化;加大对农村劳动力素质的培训力度;推进工业化和城镇化,加大乡镇企业结构调整力度,扩大就业机会.     

浅析农村职业教育与农村剩余劳动力转移问题

党的十七大报告指出:“要以促进农民增收为核心,发展乡镇企业,壮大县域经济,多渠道转移农民就业“。要更好地转移农民就业,也就是要促进农村剩余劳动力转移,而这又与农村剩余劳动力的素质有非常大的关系。本文试图从分析我国农村职业教育的现状和存在的问题出发,结合农村剩余劳动力转移对职业教育的需求状况,找出一条发展农村职业教育,促进农村剩余劳动力转移的有效途径。     

中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步

本文将技术进步和产业结构变迁从要素生产率中分解出来,实证度量了产业结构变迁对中国经济增长的贡献,并将其与技术进步的贡献相比较。实证研究表明,在改革开放以来的三十年中,虽然产业结构变迁对中国经济增长的贡献一度十分显著,但是随着市场化程度的提高,产业结构变迁对经济增长的贡献呈现不断降低的趋势,逐渐让位于技术进步,即产业结构变迁所体现的市场化的力量将逐步让位于技术进步的力量。此外,研究也发现,结构变迁效应的减弱并不表明市场化改革的收益将会消失,某些发展和体制的因素仍然阻碍着资源配置效率进一步提高。从这个层面来看,我国完善市场机制的工作仍然任重而道远。     

Understanding the demand-side of economic change: a contribution to formal evolutionary theorizing

An outstanding fact of capitalist change in the last few centuries is the ongoing emergence of new consumption alternatives which accompany income and productivity growth in expanding economies. Far from satiating consumers, exponential economic growth seems to stimulate human desires by providing novelty and variety embodied in a persuasive flow of unsettling goods. Although this is a well-known fact characteristic of capitalist change, little attention has been paid by modern growth theorists to the understanding of demand-side phenomena related to the increasing significance of consumption activities in our societies. Against this background, in this article, we show that as soon as we start drawing the demand-side contour of economic change, new phenomena appear which enrich our understanding of economic growth and structural change. By using ‘replicator dynamics’ systems, consumption dynamics are formally linked to the ongoing generation of innovations in capitalist economies. Certain emergent properties concerning economic growth and structural change and several policy implications follow.     

Structural Change and Economic Growth in China

This study develops a new analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach is expanded to include another source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low‐productivity sectors to high‐productivity sectors. It is found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, further development of rural enterprises and an increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions are key to improvements in overall economic efficiency.     

Structural transformation in China and India: A note on macroeconomic policies

This paper explores macroeconomic policies that can sustain structural change in China and India. A two-sector open-economy model with endogenous productivity growth, demand driven output and income distribution as an important determinant of economic activity is calibrated to a 2000 SAM for China and a 1999/2000 SAM for India. Short-run analysis concerns temporary equilibria for output, productivity and employment growth rates in the formal sector. In the long-run, the model allows for multiple equilibria which can describe cases of (a) underdevelopment and structural heterogeneity or (b) sustained growth and development. Several simulation exercises are conducted. Specifically, we consider how changes in investment, wages, labor productivity trend and a depreciation of currency affect the macroeconomy and job creation in the formal sector.     

Structural change,savings and current account balance

Private savings have experienced remarkable divergences across countries in recent years. In this paper we use a new factor, economic structural changes, to explain the differences of private savings in developing countries and its impacts on current account balance. We point out that growth related structural changes can be decomposed into productivity changes and job reallocations, which will affect private savings differently through wage effect and labor reallocation effect. Wage variation resulting from productivity growth will increase private savings, while labor reallocation moving from low income to high income sectors will reduce savings. Using sector level data, we find strong empirical evidence that structural change patterns have a significant impact on private savings and current account balance. This result provides another way to understand the recent “savings glut” in East Asian countries and also has some implications for the large current account imbalance issue.     

Kuznets and Pasinetti on the study of structural transformation: Never the Twain shall meet?

The main characteristics of the economic growth of nations are a sustained increase in the growth of output and factor productivity and a widespread process of structural transformation. In this paper I contrast two of the few important authors that do not ignore structural change: Kuznets and Pasinetti. Over several decades the two approaches have developed in an almost orthogonal manner. I discuss the reasons and evaluate the relevance of the approaches for the study of economic development.     

Dualism and cross-country growth regressions

This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Changes in the structure of employment will raise aggregate productivity when the marginal product of labor varies across sectors. The models in the paper incorporate this effect in a more flexible way than previous work. Estimates of the models imply sizeable marginal product differentials, and indicate that the reallocation of labor makes a significant contribution to the international variation in productivity growth.     

从生产函数看河北省经济增长与就业结构的变动

随着资本投入的增长和技术的进步,经济的增长将大量未充分就业的农业劳动力向高生产率部门转移而导致就业结构变化,就业结构的变动又进一步促进了经济的增长。用生产函数将就业结构变动从全要素生产率中分离出来,可以得出就业结构变动对经济增长的推动效应及第一产业就业人口向第二、三产业的流动对经济增长的贡献率。     

产业结构变迁、劳动力市场扭曲 和中国劳动生产率增长放缓*

自2007年以来,中国的劳动生产率呈现出增长放缓的趋势。本文建立了包含劳动力市场扭曲和部门效率差异的三部门一般均衡模型,对劳动生产率增长放缓的原因进行了分析。本文的模型可以较好地拟合劳动力部门间再配置和劳动生产率增长放缓的特征事实。数值模拟结果表明,第三产业劳动生产率低速增长是导致中国总劳动生产率增长放缓的主要原因,而劳动力市场扭曲的减弱和第一产业劳动生产率的加速增长则对总劳动生产率增长放缓起到了遏制作用。这些结果证明,劳动生产率的增长放缓在很大程度上是产业结构变迁带来的。政府可以实施放松服务业进入规制和消除劳动力市场扭曲等政策,提高总劳动生产率的增长率。