现货市场波动与商品期货合约定价

通过构建商品期货合约定价模型,证明商品期货合约价格由资本市场系统风险溢价和标的现货市场特有(非市场)风险溢价两个部分构成.商品期货市场价格影响标的商品期货价格的前提条件是存在足够多的参与商品期货市场的交易者.当标的商品现货市场需求增加.在预期商品期货合约价格为正值的情况下,都将会使商品期货合约的价格上升,扩大交易风险并增加多头收益.相反,在预期商品期货合约价格为负值的情况下,需求增长引起初级产品价格上升将使商品期货合约价格的绝对值下降,减少交易风险和引起多头损失.如果标的商品现货市场需求减少,在预期商品期货合约价格为正值的情况下,将引起商品期货合约的价格下降,减少交易风险并降低空头损失.相反,在预期商品期货合约价格为负值的情况下,商品期货合约价格的绝对值增加,扩大交易风险和增加空头收益.     

涉锌企业的套期保值应对策略

一、套期保值的含义 顾名思义,套期保值这四个字表明了企业参与交易的目的和途径.保值是目的,即保住目前认为合理的价格.回避以后价格不利的影响,套期是实现保值的途径,即套用期货合约,参与期货交易.这样,套期保值的涵义可以表达为:企业为了回避价格波动所带来的不利影响而参与期货交易,在期货市场上卖出(买进)与其将要在现货市场上卖出(买进)的现货商品数量相当,期限相近的同种商品的期货合约.     

商品期货合约定价的探讨

商品期货合约作为市场中标准化的商品远期交易协议,对统一规范了商品期货的物的品质、交易单位以及交割时间方面等问题,而期货合约价格主要由通过市场公开竞争报价决定,期货市场的报价是商品在交割时的交易价格,更是商品未来价值波动,但是商品期货合约价格则代表了市场估价与未来实际价格之间存在的偏差以及期货合约持有者的收益情况,本文主要通过建立商品期货合约定价的理论模型,对期货中的商品生产商、标的商品加工商和投机者,将现货、期货以及证券市场等为影响因素,建立期货、现货市场的最终消费终期函数,最后确定商品期货合约定价.     

期货经纪公司的关键风险点及审计技巧

一、期货交易和期贷公司概要 期货交易是交易双方在期货交易所通过买卖期货合约并根据合约规定的条款,约定在未来某一特定时间,以某一特定价格买卖某一特定数量和质量的商品的交易行为.期货交易的最终目的是通过买卖期货合约,回避现货价格风险.     

商品期货合约定价的探讨

商品期货合约作为市场中标准化的商品远期交易协议,对统一规范了商品期货的物的品质、交易单位以及交割时间方面等问题,而期货合约价格主要由通过市场公开竞争报价决定,期货市场的报价是商品在交割时的交易价格,更是商品未来价值波动,但是商品期货合约价格则代表了市场估价与未来实际价格之间存在的偏差以及期货合约持有者的收益情况,本文主要通过建立商品期货合约定价的理论模型,对期货中的商品生产商、标的商品加工商和投机者,将现货、期货以及证券市场等为影响因素,建立期货、现货市场的最终消费终期函数,最后确定商品期货合约定价。     

金融期货的会计处理研究

随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立和完善，我国市场体系的一个重要组成部分——期货市场也正在建立和迅速发展起来，因此有必要对期货的会计处理进行研究，以促进期货会计的规范化。一、期货交易期货交易指买卖双方在期货交易所以公开喊价的方式成交以后，承诺在未来某一特定日期，以当期约定的价格交付某种特定标准数量商品或金融工具。期货交易依据期货合约标的物的不同分为商品期货交易和金融期货交易。商品期货交易的历史较长，而金融期货交易则出现在本世纪70年代初期。1972年5．月16日，芝加哥交易所内，设立了一个专门交易金…     

商品期货投资收益问题研究

按照持有期货合约的部位,将商品期货交易者细分为：标的商品生产商、加工商和投机者。在满足终期效用最大化的条件下,通过联立商品期货、现货和证券市场,推导出一个商品期货投资收益模型,证明了商品期货投资收益由期货市场的系统性风险溢价和非系统性风险溢价两部分组成,并解释了“持有期成本套利”、“现货一期货溢价”和“资本资产定价”三种理论适用于确定商品期货投资收益的前提条件。根据国内商品期货市场与证券市场之间存在负相关性的实证结论,说明发展商品基金、减少证券一商品期货市场跨市场投资的交易成本等措施有利于我国资本市场的发展和完善。     

商品期货价格的期限结构:理论与实证的回顾

商品期货价格的期限结构是指商品期货价格与不同的到期期限的关系。因为期限结构综合了市场上所有能够获得的信息和操作者对将来的预期,因此,它为套期保值与投资决策提供了非常有用的信息,从而有利于现货市场的风险管理。市场可据此调整现货的存货水平和生产率,同时利用这些信息来进行套利交易,并以此给期货合约进行定价。近年来,随着市场日趋成熟,期货合约的到期期限不断延长。但在大多数的商品市场中,这类期货的价格是以远期价格给出的,由于远期合约并不是标准化的合约,而且它的价格也不是以公开竞价的方式获取,所以,以远期价格给期货定价是不合理的。商品期货价格的期限结构理论主要就是要解决不同到期期限的商品期货的定价问题。一、期限结构理论的起源与发展(一)现货与期货价格关系的传统理论1930年凯恩斯提出正常现货升水理论。该理论认为在正常情况下,远期价格低于现货价格(即现货升水),因此,他假设套期保值者倾向于做空头,而投机者倾向于做多头。期货价格与到期期货现价之间存在一个正的风险溢价,它是对投机者承担的风险的补偿,而投机者只有在预期期货价格上涨的情况下,才会买进期货。但是,Dusak(1973),Bodie and Rosanky(1980)...     

关于现代企业期货会计理论的几点思考

期货交易和期货市场的发展，给传统的会计核算带来了新的内容。我国期货会计准则的征求意见稿和财政部1997年10月24日印发的《企业商品期货业务会计暂行规定》，只对投机期货的会计处理进行了规范，并未提及套期保值期货的会计核算。在此，笔者就现代企业期货会计的几个理论问题谈些浅见，以期早日建立和完善期货会计核算方案。一、商品期货会计的基本理论(一)关于期货合约价值的确认、计量与记录。期货合约价值是指期货合约所代表的期货商品的价值，有面值与市价之分。期货合约买卖时的成交价格为面值，而期货合约在持有期内，随着结算价格…     

浅析期货交易对会计理论的影响

期货交易是标准化的受法律约束的并载明在将来某一时间和地点交割某一特定商品的合约。期货合约不是“货”,并未真正发生商品所有权或实物的转移,不能归于存货或其他流动资产项目,根据现行会计模式下的资产确认标准,很难将其纳入财务报表的资产中予以核算。传统的财务报告存在对期货交易的特殊业务往往无法准确反映以及市场价格波动激烈的交易难以准确披露的问题,针对期货合约的特点,我们可以分阶段、分情况运用公允价值真实地反映企业持有的舍约价值。投资者要根据财务报告来判断风险和报酬,必须增加财务报告的内容。     

The state of future in international relations

This paper elaborates the state of Future in International Relations from a comparative theoretical perspective with regard to the selected methodological tools of Futures Studies. It, first, looks into the development of International Relations and Futures Studies to point out, how their contextual, conceptual and epistemological similarities and dissimilarities emerged in due course. It, then, analyses to what extent the methodological differences between selected Futures Studies techniques (e.g. forecasting, trend analysis, Delphi, backcasting, causal layered analysis and integral futures approach) intersect with the conceptual and normative differences between contemporary theories of International Relations stemming from Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Post-structuralism, Normative Theory and Critical Theory. The paper characterizes the relevant futures techniques with reference to the theories of International Relations, and scrutinizes selected futuristic narratives of International Relations from a methodological perspective. It, then, elaborates how Futures Studies and International Relations can benefit from each other’s strengths in terms of their methodologies and assumptions. The article finally explores to what extent the promises of Futures Studies techniques conjure up a convergence between different theories of International Relations.     

Futures and futures options with basis risk: theoretical and empirical perspectives

Under a no-arbitrage assumption, the futures price converges to the spot price at the maturity of the futures contract, where the basis equals zero. Assuming that the basis process follows a modified Brownian bridge process with a zero basis at maturity, we derive the closed-form solutions of futures and futures options with the basis risk under the stochastic interest rate. We make a comparison of the Black model under a stochastic interest rate and our model in an empirical test using the daily data of S&P 500 futures call options. The overall mean errors in terms of index points and percentage are ?4.771 and ?27.83%, respectively, for the Black model and 0.757 and 1.30%, respectively, for our model. This evidence supports the occurrence of basis risk in S&P 500 futures call options.     

Intraday data and hedging efficiency in interest spread trading

Three government bond futures contracts and their respective 3-month interest rate futures contracts traded on LIFFE are examined. The data period covers three years of observations, January 1994-December 1996, sampled at half-hourly intervals. Borrowing from the calculation of minimum variance hedge ratios, half-hourly minimum variance spread ratios (the ratio of one contract to another, which provides the minimum variance) are estimated for the above contracts. The hypothesis under examination is whether there is any value-added in estimating minimum spread ratios based on intraday data. Three spread ratios are defined: two ratios calculated from daily data and a third one based on intraday data. Evidence tends to indicate that spread ratios calculated from intraday data exhibit a substantially lower variance than the other two spread ratio speciications. Thus, it is shown that intraday data, in comparison with daily data, allow for lower hedging costs. Moreover, the use of intraday-based spread ratios might be a contributing factor to reducing the maximum cumulative loss potentially incurred while holding a spread position.     

From metaphoric litany text to scenarios—How to use metaphors in futures studies

Metaphor and metonymy belong to the key concepts of semiotics and general linguistics. As illustrations of scenarios, metaphors already have a long history in the futures studies, too. Metaphors were discussed in the CLA Reader 1.0¹ (Inayatullah ed., 2004) but the CLA Reader 2.0 edited by Inayatullah and Milojevic (2015) gives metaphors the central role in futures research² that they deserve. The article compares the approaches of semiotics and the CLA and suggests practical steps for the analysis of metaphoric futures oriented texts and their use in the construction of scenarios. Assuming that the litany is a text, metaphors may be present on all levels of the CLA: litany, systemic causes, worldview and myth/emotion. Metaphors are suitable even for the illustration of the CLA second level quantitative causal relations between variables. As an illustrating case study, we analyze a text that suggests the great future of the Northern Sea Route. The deconstruction of the litany results in two narratives or scenarios. They are constructed utilizing proverbs and other metaphoric sayings that get many citations on the Internet.     

Power ARCH modelling of commodity futures data on the London Metal Exchange

A recent addition to the ARCH family of econometric models was introduced by Ding and co-workers wherein the power term by which the data is transformed was estimated within the model rather than being imposed by the researcher. This paper considers the ability of the Power GARCH class of models to capture the stylized features of volatility in a range of commodity futures prices traded on the London Metals Exchange (LME). The results of this procedure suggest that asymmetric effects are not generally present in the LME futures data. Further, unlike stock market data which is well described by the model, futures data is not as well described by the APGARCH model. Nested within the APGARCH model are several other models from the ARCH family. This paper uses the standard log likelihood procedure to conduct pairwise comparisons of the relative merits of each and the results suggest that it is the Taylor GARCH model which performs best.     

Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

Using futures contracts for corporate hedging: The problem of expiry and a possible solution

Companies using futures contracts for hedging purposes need to roll over their contracts if the maturity of their exposure exceeds that of the futures contracts. This entails basis risk that can reduce significantly the effectiveness of the hedge. In this paper an alternative form of futures contract is proposed. the contract never expires and can be used for long-term hedging without the need for rolling-over into a new contract. the contract is shown to be equivalent to a portfolio of conventional futures contracts of differing maturities. Its price is determined by arbitrage against the underlying asset.     

A Comparative Study on Interday Market Volatility and Intraday Price Transmission of Nikkei/JGB Futures Markets between Japan and Singapore

Using both daily and intraday data, this paper investigates the impact of different futures trading mechanisms employed by TSE/OSE (automated system with Saitori matching) in Japan and SIMEX (open outcry) in Singapore. In order to examine the relative performance, we compare interday return volatility and intraday price transmission of Nikkei/JGB futures between Japan and Singapore. Regarding Nikkei futures, we find no significant difference in the performance measurements between OSE and SIMEX. We find both OSE and SIMEX have significant higher variances and negative first-order autocorrelation at the open than at the close. We also find Granger causality in both directions of intermarket price transmission between OSE and SIMEX. Regarding JGB futures, empirical results are different between TSE and SIMEX. JGB futures on SIMEX has a lower volatility at the open and first-order autocorrelation at the open is not significant. In addition, we find unidirectional lead from Japan to Singapore in JGB futures. In conclusion, since Japanese trading system does not reduce return volatility and causes delay in the open, the benefit of Saitori matching is questionable. On the other hand, we find weak evidence that the Japanese trading system is more efficient in price reporting. There is no conclusive evidence that either SIMEX open outcry or TSE/OSE Saitori matching dominates the price discovery process.     

Intraday Returns and the Frequency of Trading at the Ask on the Sydney Futures Exchange: A Research Note

This article documents and provides explanations for intraday patterns in returns for the Share Price Index (SPI) futures contract traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Consistent with overseas futures markets research, a positive and significant overnight return is documented. Unlike overseas futures markets, we find little evidence of an end of day price rise. Our evidence suggests that overnight returns for the SPI contract are largely driven by the way returns are typically measured, which ignores the fact that there is a significantly greater frequency of sellers at the market close and buyers at the start of the day. These patterns are consistent with hedging behaviour by futures traders with long positions in the underlying stock.