Day-of-the-week effect on the VIX. A parsimonious representation

The study of significant deterministic seasonal patterns in financial asset returns is of high importance to academia and investors. This paper analyzes the presence of seasonal daily patterns in the VIX and S&P 500 returns series using a trigonometric specification. First, we show that, given the isomorphism between the trigonometrical and alternative seasonality representations (i.e., daily dummies), it is possible to test daily seasonal patterns by employing a trigonometrical representation based on a finite sum of weighted sines and cosines. We find a potential evolutive seasonal pattern in the daily VIX that is not in the daily S&P 500 log-returns series. In particular, we find an inverted Monday effect in the VIX level and changes in the VIX, and a U-shaped seasonal pattern in the changes in the VIX when we control for outliers. The trigonometrical representation is more robust to outliers than the one commonly used by literature, but it is not immune to them. Finally, we do not find a day-of-the-week effect in S&P 500 returns series, which suggests the presence of a deterministic seasonal pattern in the relation between VIX and S&P 500 returns.     

Priced risk and asymmetric volatility in the cross section of skewness

We investigate the sources of skewness in aggregate risk factors and the cross section of stock returns. In an ICAPM setting with conditional volatility, we find theoretical time series predictions on the relationships among volatility, returns, and skewness for priced risk factors. Market returns resemble these predictions; however, size, book-to-market, and momentum factor returns are not always consistent with our predictions. We find evidence that size and book-to-market may be priced post-crisis but not in the decade before. Momentum does not appear priced by our test. We link aggregate risk and skewness to individual stocks and find empirically that the risk aversion effect manifests in individual stock skewness. Additionally, we find several firm characteristics that explain stock skewness. Smaller firms, value firms, highly levered firms, and firms with poor credit ratings have more positive skewness.     

The day of the week effect in IPO initial returns

Monday IPOs occur infrequently and have higher mean initial returns than those issued on other days. The latter result is not a product of outliers or penny stocks and remains after controlling for factors related to IPO underpricing. The Monday effect is generally robust across time, but during 1995–2003 is present only in IPOs with their first reported trade on their offer date. Volume patterns suggest Monday IPOs come to market later in the day, which has been linked to higher initial returns. We argue that the observed patterns are consistent with the incentives of underwriters and investors.     

Abnormal research and development investments and stock returns

We investigate the relation between abnormal research and development (R&D) investments change and expected stock returns. We provide evidence that firms that abnormally increase their R&D investments (RDI) earn higher returns in comparison to the market portfolio. Specifically, our findings document an economically significant annual positive abnormal RDI returns that ranges from 3.2% to 11.5%. These findings are robust to well-established risk factors in the literature and suggest that the abnormal increases in RDI impacts stock returns.     

Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency

We use a stochastic frontier model with firm-specific technical inefficiency effects in a panel framework (Battese and Coelli in Empir Econ 20:325–332, 1995) to assess two popular probability of bankruptcy (PB) measures based on Merton model (Merton in J Financ 29:449–470, 1974) and discrete-time hazard model (DHM; Shumway in J Bus 74:101–124, 2001). Three important results based on our empirical studies are obtained. First, a firm with a higher PB generally has less technical efficiency. Second, for an ex-post bankrupt firm, its PB tends to increase and its technical efficiency of production tends to decrease, as the time to its bankruptcy draws near. Finally, the information content about firm’s technical inefficiency provided by PB based on DHM is significantly more than that based on Merton model. By the last result and the fact that economic-based efficiency measures are reasonable indicators of the long-term health and prospects of firms (Baek and Pagán in Q J Bus Econ 41:27–41, 2002), we conclude that PB based on DHM is a better credit risk proxy of firms.     

Mapping the successful succession process in family firms: evidence from Greece

The succession process in family firms has by far been determined to be the most critical phase in the family business life-cycle (e.g. Morris et al. Journal of Business Venturing 18:513–531, 1997; Wang et al. 2000) and characterized as the period in which most family firm fatalities occur (Handler and Kram Family Business Review 1:361–381, 1988). This paper is an empirical study on Greek family firms and seeks to identify the critical success factors that have a major impact on the outcome of a generational transition in the leadership of the family firm. Based on an integrated conceptual framework proposed by Pyromalis et al. (2006), we test the impact of five factors, namely the incumbent’s propensity to step aside, the successor’s willingness to take over, the positive family relations and communication, succession planning, and the successor’s appropriateness and preparation on both the satisfaction of the stakeholders with the succession process and the effectiveness of the succession process per se. The results provide a useful insight and confirm the importance of the aforementioned factors in the succession process by mapping a safe passage through the family business succession process, and by contributing not only to the overall family business literature but also generating strong arguments in favor of the family firm as an integral entrepreneurial element for a region’s sustainable economic development.     

Size and book-to-market factors in the relationship between average stock returns and average book returns: some evidence from an emerging market

The present paper examines the association between average stock returns and average book returns and addresses the question as to whether there are common size and book-to-market factors in earnings and returns. The results of the empirical research, conducted in the Athens Stock Exchange, suggest that when the sample firms are grouped into size, book-to-market portfolios stock returns properly reflect differences in the evolution of accounting profitability. Moreover, it is found that the return on investment (ROI) measure contains size and book-to-market factors analogous to the mimic risk factors inherent in stock returns, in the sense that they capture information missed by ROI.     

The relationship between information technology capability,inventory efficiency,and shareholder wealth: A firm-level empirical analysis

Inventories represent an important strategic resource for firms, with implications for shareholder wealth. As such, firms expend considerable effort in managing their inventories efficiently. Among other factors, information technology (IT) capability can play an important role in enabling inventory efficiency and financial performance. However, insight into the chain-of-effects linking IT capability, inventory efficiency, and stock market returns and risk remains limited. In this paper, we provide a conceptual model outlining the relationships between these constructs. Next, we evaluate the model using secondary information on firms from multiple industries across the 10-year time period of 2000–2009. Our analysis confirms that firms’ IT capability plays a significant role in enhancing their inventory efficiency, which, in turn, is observed to increase stock market returns. Our results also reveal that firms’ IT capability directly reduces their stock market risk and enhances their stock market returns. Taken together, these findings, along with the conceptual model that we advance, have important research and managerial implications.     

Autocorrelation,return horizons,and momentum in stock returns

In this study we examine Lewellen’s (Rev Financ Stud 15:533–563 2002) claim that momentum in stock returns is not due to positive autocorrelation as behavioral models suggest. Using portfolio-specific data, we find the autocovariance component of the momentum profit to be negative, suggesting no return continuations. However, we also find that the autocorrelations calculated from short-term (e.g., monthly) returns are quite different from long-horizon (e.g., annual) autocorrelations. While the first-order autocorrelations of 6– and 12-month returns tend to be negative, the autocorrelations across twelve lags in monthly returns of the industry, size, and B/M portfolios are in general positive. Our results show that these portfolios exhibit return continuations when returns are measured on a monthly basis. Therefore, our finding appears to be consistent with the behavioral models, which suggest positive autocorrelation in stock returns.     

Determinants of the stock price reaction to leveraged buyouts

This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout activity through the use of an abnormal return premium from the time of the first announcement through the final trading day. Consistent with the free. cash flow theory, firms with either high free cash flow or low Tobin’s q have higher abnormal returns. However, the returns to firms with both high free cash flow and low Tobin’s q are lower than firms with just one of these characteristics. Firms which substantially increase leverage and management buyouts with high insider ownership prior to the buyout have lower abnormal returns. Firms with lower risk, and therefore greater debt capacity, have higher abnormal returns.     

Return and Risk Premium Seasonalities in three Emerging Asian Markets: Hong Kong,Korea and Taiwan*

In this study, we find that seasonal return patterns differ from that implied by risk premiums in three emerging Asian markets; namely, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan. Positive January seasonal returns are found in the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, while positive February seasonal returns are also found in Taiwan. These findings suggest that investors should place their money in these markets during January but not for the months of June and December in Korea, and for the months of May and November in Taiwan. Corporate managers should also be aware of the need to adjust for such seasonal variations when they use market data to evaluate the risk premium or required rate of return for projects in these markets. The results also show that the size effect may also be priced in some of these markets.     

Determinants of the stock price reaction to leveraged buyouts

Abtract  This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout activity through the use of an abnormal return premium from the time of the first announcement through the final trading day. Consistent with the free cash flow theory, firms with either high free cash flow or low Tobin’s q have higher abnormal returns. Howerver, the returns to firms with both high free cash flow and low Tobin’s q are lower than firms with just one of these characteristics. Firms which substantially increase leverage and management buyouts with high insider ownership prior to the buyout have lower abnormal returns. Firms with lower risk, and therefore greater debt capacity, have higher abnormal returns.     

Over-investment in corporate R&D,risk, and stock returns

Large-size firms which significantly increase their R&D expenditures experience subsequently three-year-long negative abnormal stock returns on the magnitude of 56 basis-points per month. We find no robust evidence of significant event-induced abnormal returns for small-size sample firms or any systematic risk changes for the small- and large- size firms. We also find that the large-size sample firms generate relatively much larger cash flows (i.e., have significantly greater over-investment discretion) and have significantly larger (over-) valuation multiples than the small-size firms. Moreover, some of their operating performance measures show signs of deterioration instead of improvement following these R&D programs. These findings are consistent with the view that investors initially underestimate the over-investment in R&D by some large-size firms that appear to be overvalued and have high cash flows at the time of the investment, only to be disappointed later.     

The impact of inventory dynamics on long-term stock returns – An empirical investigation of U.S. manufacturing companies

This paper investigates the relationship between the inventory dynamics and long-term stock returns of a large panel of U.S. manufacturing firms over the time period from 1991 to 2010. We propose two measures of inventory dynamics: one metric to assess the fluctuations of quarterly inventories within the year and a second metric to quantify relative year-over-year inventory growth. Our results indicate that within-year inventory volatility (IV) and abnormal year-over-year inventory growth (ABI) are associated with abnormal stock returns. Both metrics cannot be entirely explained by common risk factors. We find that firms with high IV and low ABI have the best long-term stock returns, and that stock performance decreases monotonically with higher ABI values. Our results are robust to various control variables including size, book-to-market value, industry and prior performance. We therefore conclude that changes in inventory levels provide valuable insights into the risks and opportunities faced by a company.     

The underwriter’s early lock-up release: Empirical evidence

A lock-up agreement is an arrangement between the underwriter and certain pre-IPO shareholders. This paper examines the influence of an underwriter’s early lock-up release on shareholder wealth. The study found significant negative abnormal returns associated with the early lock-up release annoucement. Negative abnormal returns are more pronounced for venture capital backed firms than for firms not venture capital backed. In addition, scheduled lock-up release day abnormal returns, found in previous studies to be significantly negative, are reduced for firms announcing the early lock-up release.(JEL G24, G30)     

Risk reporting and stock return in the UK: Does market competition Matter?

This study examines the extent to which market competition influences risk reporting practice. It also explores how market competition affects the usefulness of risk reporting. The automated textual analysis measures the level of risk reporting [how much to report] and its tone [how it is reported] of UK FTSE 350 firms. The abnormal stock return is used as a proxy for the usefulness of risk reporting. In contrast to the proprietary cost hypothesis, our results indicate that the level of risk reporting is a positive function of market competition. Besides, UK firms are likely to disseminate more (less) negative (positive) news about their risks when market competition increases. However, after examining the informativeness of this reporting, we provide evidence that the level of reported risk information does not significantly enhance the abnormal stock returns of UK firms. Nevertheless, the tone of the reported risks carries incremental information indicative of a firm’s abnormal stock return, especially when market competition decreases. The findings suggest that firms are likely to alleviate their proprietary costs by framing their reporting of risk information in a way that deters potential competitors from entering their market and that market competition diminishes the perceived informativeness of such reporting. The results provide implications for investors as they should not acknowledge the disclosure of higher risk information when asking for more corporate transparency, as it lacks informativeness. Besides, policymakers may impose extra compulsory requirements on the UK firms to avoid reporting overly optimistic risk news to protect investors and avoid the adverse effects of this reporting.     

Innovation and export activities in the German mechanical engineering sector: an application of testing restrictions in production analysis

Since Solow (Q J Econ 70:65–94, 1956) the economic literature has widely accepted innovation and technological progress as the central drivers of long-term economic growth. From the microeconomic perspective, this has led to the idea that the growth effects on the macroeconomic level should be reflected in greater competitiveness of the firms. Although innovation effort does not always translate into greater competitiveness, it is recognized that innovation is, in an appropriate sense, unique and differs from other inputs like labor or capital. Nonetheless, often this uniqueness is left unspecified. We analyze two arguments rendering innovation special, the first related to partly non-discretionary innovation input levels and the second to the induced increase in the firm’s competitiveness on the global market. Methodologically the analysis is based on restriction tests in non-parametric frontier models, where we use and extend tests proposed by Simar and Wilson (Commun Stat Simul Comput 30(1):159–184, 2001; J Prod Anal, forthcoming, 2010). The empirical data is taken from the German Community Innovation Survey 2007 (CIS 2007), where we focus on mechanical engineering firms. Our results are consistent with the explanation of the firms’ inability to freely choose the level of innovation inputs. However, we do not find significant evidence that increased innovation activities correspond to an increase in the ability to serve the global market.     

A comparative analysis of security pricing using factor, macrovariable and arbitrage pricing models

This study compares and contrasts the single factor, three factor, macrovariable and APT models, using industry portfolios of all available firms on CRSP from 1980 to 1992. Comparatively, the APT is best, macrovariable second best and single factor model worse in pricing securities. Consistently, the market variable is cross sectionally priced in all models, and two of four APT factors capture the majority of variance in industry returns. In the latter case, factor three is ***DIRECT SUPPORT *** A00DH002 00002 consistently related to market returns, and factors two and three are also associated with risk premiums and exchange rates after 1987. Factor four is not related to any macrovariable, and term structure and production are never related to any risk factor.     

Financing professional partnerships

Increases in net-debt obligations of profit sharing partnerships give these organizations a strong incentive to expand. This paper argues that when capital structure is transparent, partnerships can signal their hiring intentions to uninformed clients by their net-debt levels. Levin and Tadelis (2005) predicts that professional service firms with fewer informed clients will tend to choose to organize as partnerships rather than corporations. The present paper demonstrates that this prediction only holds when financial frictions are present.     

Stock Market’s responses to intraday investor sentiment

We investigate the effect of intraday sentiment on subsequent stock returns. Mispricing caused by intraday sentiment is not corrected immediately; rather, it lasts for about 30 min. After 30 min, however, investor sentiment negatively affects stock returns, suggesting that mispriced stocks are at least partially but not entirely adjusted back to their fundamental values. We also show that the effect of intraday sentiment depends on the degree of arbitrage. Intraday sentiment has little effect on firms that are easy to arbitrage. For these firms, the difference in the one-minute returns of firms with high and low sentiment is nearly zero, implying that any mispricing caused by intraday sentiment is immediately corrected for this group of firms. In contrast, among firms that are hard to arbitrage, the difference in the returns of firms with high and low sentiment lasts for about half an hour. This difference in the effect of intraday sentiment is not caused by the firms’ liquidities.