Genetic enhancement, futures tense

This article reviews central developments on the intersections of genetics research, genetic counselling and bioethics that, in the 1970s and 1980s came together in the construction of the genetic decision maker through an “enhancement imaginary”. It argues that this image of genetic decision making, along with emerging socio-economic developmental traits in the West, will come under increasing pressure. This will generate the need for an up-scaled decision making complex, incorporating digital means and cognitive science in contexts increasingly outside of health care institutions. The handling of information, identity and decision making under changing and complex circumstances becomes central. Such developments raise concerns about, simultaneously, increasing surveillance, social inequality and exclusion, and emerging expert/lay relations. New attitudes, institutions and forms of knowledge are needed to meet emerging genomic futures in constructive ways.     

Thriving locally in the global economy

More and more small and midsize companies are joining corporate giants in striving to exploit international growth markets. At the same time, civic leaders worry about their communities' economic future in light of the impact of global forces on the operation and survival of business. How can communities retain local vitality yet still link their business to the global economy? Harvard professor Rosabeth Moss Kanter addresses that question in this classic HBR article, orginally published in 1995. To avoid a clash between international economic interests and local political interests, globalizing business must learn how to be responsive to the communities in which they operate, Kanter says. And communities must determine how to create a civic culture that will attract and retain footloose companies. The author surveyed five U.S. regions with direct connections to the global economy--Boston, Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, and the Spartanburg-Greenville region of South Carolina--to determine their business and civic leader's strategies for improving their constituent's quality of life. She identified ways in which the global economy can work locally by capitalizing on the resources that distinguish one place from another. Kanter argues that regions can invest in capabilities that connect their local populations to the global economy in one of three ways: as thinkers, makers, or traders. She points to the Spartanburg-Greenville region as a good example of a world-class makers, with its exceptional blue-collar workforce that has attracted more than 200 companies from 18 countries. The history of the economic development of this region is a lesson for those seeking to understand how to achieve world-class status and bring local residents into the world economy.     

金融摩擦、收入风险与财富不平等

本文通过构建带有职业选择的两部门异质模型,探讨了个体面临的金融摩擦和收入风险对财富分配的作用机制。结果发现,经济中存在的金融摩擦会通过职业选择、自我保险和自融资来影响个人的财富积累,从而导致财富的集中和不平等。对模型模拟的结果表明:降低金融摩擦在总体上会降低财富不平等程度,但对不同财富阶层的影响不同,其在大幅减少前1%和前10%阶层财富份额的同时,虽然也会在一定程度上提升后50%阶层的财富份额,但提升幅度并不大,过高或过低的企业家收入风险,都会加大财富不平等程度,因而存在一个使经济中财富不平等程度最低的适度企业家收入风险水平;虽然金融摩擦和收入风险都会影响经济中的财富不平等,但收入风险本身对财富不平等程度的影响较小,其主要是通过金融摩擦放大了经济中财富不平等的程度。     

Financial Development and Income Inequality: Long-Run Relationship and Short-Run Heterogeneity

This article examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and income inequality using the PMG. We find that financial development will reduce inequality in the long run, while it can increase inequality in the short run. Using the estimates of country-specific short-run coefficients, we also find that adverse short-run effects of financial development are associated with the vulnerabilities of countries in terms of their greater susceptibility to crises and poor quality of governance. Good governance seems to be important for achieving inclusive growth though financial development.     

The distributional impact of social transfers in the European Union: evidence from the ECHP

Social transfers vary enormously across the European Union, as has been demonstrated in earlier research. This paper analyses the comparative effects of these transfers on inequality and poverty, using consistent household data. The analysis shows that the distributional impact of these transfers is greater in countries that spend a higher proportion of their GDP on them, but that there are other important determinants, including the extent of means testing, the distribution of funds between different types of transfer and the degree of targeting for each transfer. It also shows that effective targeting can be achieved without high levels of means testing.     

Price smarter on the Net

Companies generally have set prices on the Internet in two ways. Many start-ups have offered untenably low prices in a rush to capture first-mover advantage. Many incumbents have simply charged the same prices on-line as they do off-line. Either way, companies are missing a big opportunity. The fundamental value of the Internet lies not in lowering prices or making them consistent but in optimizing them. After all, if it's easy for customers to compare prices on the Internet, it's also easy for companies to track customers' behavior and adjust prices accordingly. The Net lets companies optimize prices in three ways. First, it lets them set and announce prices with greater precision. Different prices can be tested easily, and customers' responses can be collected instantly. Companies can set the most profitable prices, and they can tap into previously hidden customer demand. Second, because it's so easy to change prices on the Internet, companies can adjust prices in response to even small fluctuations in market conditions, customer demand, or competitors' behavior. Third, companies can use the clickstream data and purchase histories that it collects through the Internet to segment customers quickly. Then it can offer segment-specific prices or promotions immediately. By taking full advantage of the unique possibilities afforded by the Internet to set prices with precision, adapt to changing circumstances quickly, and segment customers accurately, companies can get their pricing right. It's one of the ultimate drivers of e-business success.     

论跨国公司避税的国际法律管制

由于跨国公司内部各实体间存在相互关联性,使得跨国公司的避税行为对国际税收领域的传统法律提出了全新的挑战。本文探讨了对跨国公司避税进行国际管制的法律基础以及当前对跨国公司避税进行国际管制所面临的困境,认为在现行国际税收规则难以被根本修正的情况下,加强国际间的税收征管合作是较为现实的选择。     

Thinking for the future: global corporate responsibility in the twenty-first century

This paper reflects on the kinds of responsibility businesses today must exercise in order to be part of the solution to the problems of a globalising world. These problems are to a large extent rooted in the dynamics of a globalization that is driven by business objectives and operations. They are brought to the fore of global consciousness by civil society protest on the one hand and investor pressure on the other in a manner that reminds us of Adam Smith's anxieties concerning the threats posed by corporate power. It is clear that in our time the systemic complexities of global interdependence magnify these threats in ways beyond the control of governments and nation states. The remedy must thus lie with the companies themselves. Businesses, whether global or local, must recognize that as agents of global change they are acting not simply as economic but also as moral agents. They must assume the responsibility for the effects of their actions, and we argue that the best way to do this is to commit to the primacy of human rights as an overarching value governing all their internal and external dealings. This has its difficulties, as we discuss in the latter part of the article: we use the example of a Brazilian study to illustrate some of the problems of acting out such a commitment. This study also illustrates the point that the futures of business and of the communities in which they exist are intertwined; shareholder value and human rights are interactive elements of ‘good’ business.     

信贷增长如何影响中国的收入和财富不平等

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据考察了信贷增长对中国家庭收入和财富不平等的影响。整体而言，信贷增长可以缩小家庭收入不平等，主要作用机制是信贷增长通过提高中低收入群体的劳动收入和单位时薪以缩小劳动收入不平等。同时，文献中所发现的信贷增长可能恶化收入不平等的机制——扩大家庭间非货币金融资产差距，在我国表现并不明显，原因在于中国家庭的非货币金融资产比例较低，这一点对于高收入家庭也不例外，且大部分家庭难以从金融资产交易中获利。信贷增长带来了各个收入组的房屋价值上涨，但高收入家庭房产价值上涨的幅度高于中低收入家庭，因此房价上涨扩大了不同收入家庭所持有的房产价值差异。考虑到家庭调查数据往往对高收入家庭的收入和财产覆盖不完整，上述结论可能低估了信贷增长对极少数高收入家庭收入和资产的影响。本文有助于更好地理解我国信贷增长对收入分配问题的影响，为相关政策制定提供了一定启示。     

分项收入不平等效应与收入结构的优化

从分项收入角度考察城乡收入不平等,不仅能判断产生收入不平等的原因,还能判断什么分项收入有利于增加收入总量;不仅能量化收入不平等效应,还能根据收入不平等效应来优化收入结构。研究发现,分项收入具有性质不同、大小不等的收入不平等效应,其中工资性收入扩大收入不平等的效应最强、转移性收入次之、财产性收入最小;经营性收入是唯一具有缩小收入不平等效应的分项收入。据此,我们认为,城乡居民收入结构优化的方向应该是,稳定维持工资性收入、适当调整转移性收入、适度控制财产性收入并努力增加经营性收入。     

Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany

The success of the flat rate income tax in eastern Europe suggests that this concept could also be a model for countries of western Europe. The present paper uses a simulation model to analyze the effects of revenue neutral flat rate tax reforms on equity and efficiency for the case of Germany. We find that a flat rate tax with a low tax rate and a low basic allowance yields positive static welfare effects amounting to approximately 1.8% of income tax revenue but increases income inequality. The increase in income inequality can be avoided by combining a higher tax rate with a higher basic allowance. But in this case, the efficiency gains vanish. We conclude that due to their limited efficiency effects and their problematic distributional impact, flat tax reforms are unlikely to spill over to the grown-up democracies of western Europe.      

The future of therapeutics in the north

Health-care systems occupy from 6% up to 15% of developed countries' GDPs. Therapeutics, particularly hospital care, occupy the bulk of these expenditures, despite their focus on dealing with disease after it arises. In the 21st century health-care systems will focus on health gains. Therapeutics will have broadened to encompass prevention and treatment, and will be focused on each individual's unique biological, psychological and social needs. Major killers, most particularly heart disease and cancer, will be far more preventable or curable, because of changes in therapeutic paradigms to more holistic approaches as well as important biomedical breakthroughs. There are a variety of negative possibilities, including continued preeminence of the medical model, growing costs, increased inequality in access, and greater poverty and social disintegration. The movement to therapeutics more focused on health gains will be accelerated by a variety of trends, particularly the development by communities in the USA and many other countries of shared visions that guide the evolution of health care in these directions.     

There's something about saving …

The paper considers how people should plan their saving, given certain assumptions about inheritance and changes in household circumstances. The results are produced by a model that takes into account tax and state benefits as well as various private savings vehicles. It concludes that, for many households, saving for retirement through a ‘pension’ might not be optimum and that the best strategy is to vary the incidence and allocation of saving in response to changes in household circumstances.     

The future imagined: Exploring fiction as a means of reflecting on today’s Grand Societal Challenges and tomorrow’s options

European science policy (so-called Horizon 2020) is guided by Grand Societal Challenges (GSCs) with the explicit aim of shaping the future. In this paper we propose an innovative approach to the analysis and critique of Europe’s GSCs. The aim is to explore how speculative and creative fiction offer ways of embodying, telling, imagining, and symbolising ‘futures’, that can provide alternative frames and understandings to enrich the grand challenges of the 21st century, and the related rationale and agendas for ERA and H2020. We identify six ways in which filmic and literary representations can be considered creative foresight methods (i.e. through: creative input, detail, warning, reflection, critique, involvement) and can provide alternative perspectives on these central challenges, and warning signals for the science policy they inform. The inquiry involved the selection of 64 novels and movies engaging with notions of the future, produced over the last 150 years. Content analysis based on a standardised matrix of major themes and sub-domains, allows to build a hierarchy of themes and to identify major patterns of long-lasting concerns about humanity’s future. The study highlights how fiction sees oppression, inequality and a range of ethical issues linked to human and nature’s dignity as central to, and inseparable from innovation, technology and science. It concludes identifying warning signals in four major domains, arguing that these signals are compelling, and ought to be heard, not least because elements of such future have already escaped the imaginary world to make part of today’s experience. It identifies areas poorly defined or absent from Europe's science agenda, and argues for the need to increase research into human, social, political and cultural processes involved in techno-science endeavours.     

内部资本市场效率实证测度模型的改进与验证

内部资本市场效率实证测度模型是研究内部资本市场效率的关键。本文总结了现有内部资本市场效率测度模型的优缺点,在此基础上构建了新的模型,一是适用于分部数据充分情况下的基于上期资产回报率的现金流敏感系数,二是适用于A股市场分部数据不完善情况下的调整的利润敏感系数,并进行了检验。结果表明,两个模型的改进不仅是必要的而且是合理的,并且为对A股上市公司ICM效率的研究提供了可行的基础,也为ICM效率的相关研究打开了广阔的空间。     

Exploring professional identity: The perceptions of chartered accountant students

The aim of this paper is to explore the developing professional identity of the Chartered Accountant Student. It explores professional training through analysing the narratives of students. This qualitative study shows how students begin to develop their sense of professional identity through membership of communities of practice (Wenger, 1998) within the training organisations, rather than through the professional body. This novel approach to further understanding the professional development of the accounting trainee adds to current academic knowledge as the role of communities of practice, in this context, has not been previously explored. The views and perceptions of Chartered Accountant Students are also relevant to accounting professional bodies, training organisations and to those considering embarking on accounting training. In understanding this process those involved in training can facilitate and, therefore, potentially influence the process because understanding how trainees learn to be professional is central to how they will learn to contribute to professional life and to their future in society.     

Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Policy: What Are the Relevant Trade-offs?

We develop an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply, in which agents differ in their initial endowments of physical capital. In this context, the growth rate and the distribution of income are jointly determined. We then examine the distributional impact of different ways of financing an investment subsidy. Policies aimed at increasing the growth rate result in a more unequal distribution of pre-tax income, consistent with the positive correlation between income inequality and growth observed in the recent empirical literature. However, there is no conflict between efficiency and equity if inequality is measured in terms of the distribution of welfare.     

Social insurance,incentives and risk taking

From the perspective of parents, redistributive taxation can be seen as social insurance for their children, for which no private alternative exists. Because private insurance comes too late during a person's life, it cannot cover the same risks as social insurance. Empirically, 85% of social insurance covers risks for which no private insurance would have been available. Redistributive taxation can be efficiency enhancing, because it creates safety and because it stimulates income generating risk taking. However, it also brings about detrimental moral hazard effects. Both the enhancement of risk taking and the moral hazard effects tend to increase the inequality in the economy, and, under constant returns to risk taking, this increase is likely to be strong enough even to make the net-of-tax income distribution more unequal. Optimal redistributive taxation will either imply that the pie becomes bigger when there is less inquality in pre-tax incomes or that more redistribution creates more post-tax inequality.The author gratefully acknowledges reserach assistance by Claudio Thum and useful comments by two anonymous referees. The paper is a broadened and non-technical discussion that draws on previous writings by the author on the subject. See in particular Sinn (1995).     

Unequal inequalities: Do progressive taxes reduce income inequality?

This paper analyzes the effect of changes in the structural progressivity of national income tax systems on observed and actual income inequality. Using several unique measures of progressivity over the 1981–2005 period for a large panel of countries, we find that progressivity reduces inequality in observed income, but has a significantly smaller impact on actual inequality, approximated by consumption-based Ginis. An empirical comparative analysis shows that the differential effect on observed versus actual inequality is much larger in countries with weaker legal institutions. We also find that structural progressivity has a greater equalizing effect in environments that support pro-poor redistribution. Substantial differences in inequality response to changes in top versus bottom rates are also uncovered.     

融资环境与我国上市公司融资行为选择

同市场成熟的发达国家企业盛行债务融资不同,我国上市公司偏好股权融资, 造成这种差异的关键是我国特定的融资环境.本文以融资环境为背景,通过分析我国上市公司所处的特定的融资环境,得出结论:我国上市公司偏好股权融资是在既定的融资环境下,做出的"合理"选择.在此基础上,提出了改善上市公司融资环境的综合治理措施,以使上市公司的融资行为朝着理性化方向发展.