美巴特尔研究所预测2005年的战略技术

地处美国俄亥俄州哥伦布的巴特尔研究所既是技术开发单位,也是美国重要思想库之一。该所宣布了对2005年十项战略技术的预测结果。所谓战略技术,必须满足三个条件:有益于最终用户;在质量、价格、独特性等方面     

美国国家研究院的研究机制及其对国家科学思想库建设的启示

介绍了美国国家研究院的概况和职能,着重阐述了该院的决策咨询研究与运作机制,并分析如何从体制与机制建设的角度来保障国家科学思想库研究的独立性与客观性。     

美国科技决策管理的多元运行与现实评估

从运行机制上看,美国科技政策的决策管理机制与美国的科技水准、政治制度互动,确保了美国的科技领先优势,并领导着世界的科技研发方向。机制本身一方面是美国政府、国会、媒体、科研机构（思想库）、公众的共同参与,但深层次的体现却是专家治国、精英政治与民主决策的冲突与共生。     

工程咨询与投资决策

咨询业是专门以知识和技术,帮助决策者解决各种复杂问题的行业。咨询机构,在国外被称为"智囊团"、"思想库"、"头脑公司"等等,不一而足。咨询机构运用专家们的知识、经验、智能和科学方法,为决策者提供决策依据。因而有的国家将咨询行业归入所谓知识密集型的第四产业。工程咨询是咨询业中最大最主要的业务类别之一,它主要是对投资者拟投资的工程的可行性进行咨询和评估,从而为投资者的决策提供公正、科学、可靠的依据。现代工程咨询业始于英国,早在1913年英国就成立了"咨询工程师协会"。此后30年代美国在开发     

加快发展步伐 提升咨政水平—专访陕西省社会科学院院长杨尚勤

社科院的资源优势是金字招牌、优势平台和人力资源，但如果不与社会结合，资源优势就无法转变为成果优势，无法产生经济和社会效益。社科院要坚持为党的理论创新服务，努力成为马克思主义的坚强阵地要坚持为建设西部强省服务，努力成为名副其实的省委、省政府的思想库和智囊团；要坚持为全社会服务，努力成为社会认可的重要智库。     

中美发明专利区域分布比较

本文运用分散度指数、标准差、基尼系数、系统聚类等方法，对中美两国发明专利在区域分布差异和区域等级方面进行了比较分析。在区域差异方面，从发明专利总量的区域集聚度来看，中国和美国的差距较小，相似性较强；从发明专利均量的区域均衡度来看，美国各区域间的差异要大于中国，中国发明专利较多区域和较少区域间的差异要大于美国。在区域等级方面，从绝对数量上看，美国最低等级比中国最高等级的数量要多；美国的区域分布集中在D和E等级，中国的区域等级分布比较均衡；具体区域的比较，中美有相似的特点。但是美国高等级区域的科技和产业关联比较强。     

美国州公司所得税税基的分配原则

本文从美国州公司所得税的性质出发，对美国的州公司所得税进行了规范分析；接下来阐述了州公司所得税税基分配的基本原则——来源地原则；最后，文章从六个方面分析了来源地原则中公式分配法的具体实施问题。     

美国工业组织政策浅析

本文运用历史唯物主义、辩证唯物主义的观点，对美国工业组织演变过程中联季政府制定和实施的一系列政策与措施进行了比较系统的分析和评价。剖析了美国大企业的扩张与联邦政府反垄断法的产生和发展以及政府在促进大中小企业协调发展，竞争秩序时对小企业的一系列扶技政策；对其工来组织政策进行了评价，提出美国政府反垄断的实质是为了满足意识形态的需要，以及缓和大小资本家的利益冲突和社会矛盾的需要；结合我国的国情，对我国的工业组织合理化提出了一些可行的对策。     

全面深化改革 加快地方新型智库建设——陕西省社会科学院党组书记、院长任宗哲访谈录

党的十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》明确指出,要"深入开展立法协商、行政协商、民主协商、参政协商、社会协商,加强中国特色智库建设,建立健全决策咨询制度"。中央的指示与要求,既体现了地方社科院作为"思想库"、"智囊团"的本质属性,也指出了地方社科院应当成为地方党委和政府的"思想库"、"智囊团"的本质要求。在不久前召开的全国社会科学院院长联席会议上,陕西省社会科学院党组书记、院长任宗哲的发言介绍了该院全面深化改革,加快地方新型智库建设的经验和做法。本刊以访谈的形式将任宗哲院长的发言予以刊发,以飨读者。     

2011—2021年美国科技法律制定分析框架及颁布情况分析

通过建立“美国科技法律的需求-供给分析框架”，对2011—2021年美国科技法律进行案例分析，由此得出：第一，从数量来看，美国关于科技方面的立法数量呈现增长趋势；第二，从领域来看，美国对科技的关注较全面，包括国家安全、教育、信息通信、农业、基础设施、能源、航空航天、企业创新和民生需求；第三，从对象来看，美国科技方面立法占比最大的是民生需求领域；第四，从趋势来看，美国立法越来越注重对标准和规则的制定；第五，从针对国来看，美国从2017年开始关于涉华科技方面的法律条款日益增多，对华科技打压呈日益激烈的态势。基于上述分析，中国对内应加强科技相关立法，增强立法针对性，并增加民生领域的科技投入；对外应积极应对美国对华科技打压，在国际标准和规则体系的制定中发挥主动作用。     

哈佛“大学智库”研究

大学智库是高校以自身的高层次人才和优势学科为依托,充分利用自身的资料、信息和学术氛围等优势,顺应国际国内发展的实际需求,将学术研究与现实问题解决相结合组建而成的机构,在政府政策制定和决策过程中扮演着重要角色。本文以哈佛大学的三家全球知名大学智库为例,探讨分析它们如何在＂战略研究、政策建言、人才培养、舆论引导＂等方面发挥作用,为我国高校智库建设提供参考。     

Alfred Thayer Mahan and American Geopolitics: The Conservatism and Realism of an Imperialist

Debate about the goals of American foreign policy at the end of the twentieth century, especially that thread differentiating “conservative” from “neoconservative” perspectives, might profit by revisiting the debate over American expansion at the end of the nineteenth century. “I am an imperialist,” Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan once remarked, “simply because I am not isolationist.” This paper explores the connection between Mahan's defense of imperialism-often couched in terms of national interest and balance of power- and the norms of American power in world politics. The will-to-power behind American expansion and involvement, a formidable pillar in Mahan's realism, coexisted (often uneasily) with the affirmation of national purpose, a less formidable but still important part of Mahan's idealism. Mahan's strong conservative inclinations in politics were matched by a willingness to employ the tools of realism-particularly traditional diplomatic methods-as a way to uphold historic national goals and moral vision in American foreign policy. Far from seeing an irremediable conflict between the counsels of realism and limited moral gains in foreign policy, Mahan understood that governments are not immune from certain overall constraints. Seldom if ever could American actions abroad be defended by arguing solely for the maintenance or increase of national power.     

The new frontier of American fisheries governance

Throughout its history, America has viewed its oceans as vast fishery frontiers. These frontiers are suffering depletion as large amounts of fishing power combined with significant oceanographic changes are straining the limits of sustainability. The new ocean frontier is not the promise of undeveloped resources, but rather the challenge of undeveloped sustainable governance systems. This paper discusses the institutional transformation necessary to achieve sustainable governance. The first part provides an historical overview of the American use of resources as frontiers. The second part characterizes the frontier as an extreme form of resource use, contrasting it to its opposite ideal, the commons. The third part outlines behavioral differences between the users of frontiers and commons, the pioneers and shareholders. Building on the attributes of resource management under the two ideals, the fourth part of the discussion focuses on the necessary conditions and major challenges to developing the institutional capital required for sustainable US fishery management. The institutional capital needed for sustainable fisheries governance is comprised of several pieces: (1) A perception of the fishery as an integrated ecosystem; (2) an identification of shareholders; (3) an allocation of decision making power and responsibility which vests all interests and internalizes the source of control; (4) incentive structures to promote long-term management; (5) management skills among fishery interests; (6) management processes that promote adaptability to change. The final section provides conclusions and an assessment of the progress US fishery management has made in institutional capital development. Pressures of scarcity are forcing US fisheries management to evolve away from the frontier ideal, but the development of the institutional capital necessary for sustainable fishery governance is incomplete.     

美国双赤字:偶然巧合还是必然?

美国的双赤字并不是一种必然。因为多种因素综合作用使得美国经常账户赤字扩大，但是这些因素所起作用的大小是不一样的，生产率增长对美国经常账户赤字扩大的影响较大；外国国内需求的疲软又对美国经常账户赤字的扩大起了推波助澜的作用；而美国财政政策的放松以及私人储蓄的下降对经常账户的恶化所起的作用不大。     

Spanning with American options

In this paper, we investigate the existence of multiperiod American options generating dynamically complete markets. We show that if a primitive security separates states at the terminal date, then generically there exist multiperiod American options on that security generating dynamically complete markets. We also provide an example of an economy in which multiperiod American options on a primitive security generate dynamically complete markets, while multiperiod European options do not.     

Fractal Nonstandard American Option Pricing Model

The empirical study shows that the return rate of the stock price has a long memory, which can be described by fractal Brown motion. The fact that fractal Brown motion does not have the characteristics of Markov makes the American option value depends on the price change path of the underlying asset. And the ordinary American option pricing model underestimates the American option value. In order to fully reflect the long memory of the underlying asset return rates, we propose fractal American option pricing model, fractal Bermuda option pricing model, and a fractal combination of American option pricing model. Fractal American option value is greater than the ordinary American option value.     

美国证券市场发展的历史演进

资本市场上美国新发行股票由1921年的1,822支增加到1929年的6,417支;1929年以前,美国政府奉行的是经济自由主义,在大危机的背景下,国家直接干预的要求成为必然。道·琼斯工业指数从1973年的1050点左右的高峰跌到1974年底570点的谷底,跌幅达45%左右。经济的持续上升带动了股市的繁荣。1987年10月19日是美国股市的黑色星期一,道·琼斯指数随着美国经济经济的持续增长,美国股票市场也走上了十年的大牛市之路。当然,美国证券市场的发展,既非平坦大道,也不是孤立突进的。影响股市兴衰的因素是多种多样的。有些是理性的,有些是非理性的。     

借鉴美国梦,助力中国梦

美国梦作为美国人价值观的核心部分,它是物质和精神的统一,也是个体理想和国家理想的统一。美国梦所包含的进取精神、忧患意识、爱国主义精神和主体意识,是美国发展成为帝国主义强国的精神力量,它所倡导的平等精神是美国社会持续发展的重要保障。在实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦过程中,要本着＂拿来主义＂的精神,借鉴美国梦的积极因素,吸取美国梦的积极进取精神,尊重个人的梦想和追求,把实现个人梦和民族梦有机结合起来;要致力于打造平等的竞争环境,特别注重创造机会的平等。同时,在实践中不断深化中国梦的内涵,把中国梦作为增强中华民族凝聚力的持久精神力量。     

The Limits of Blaming Neo-Liberalism: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,the American State and the Financial Crisis

Much discussion of the financial crisis has been shaped by an analytical narrative around a state versus markets antithesis of the kind that characterises many critiques of neo-liberalism. Yet in several important respects this antithesis creates a problematic lens through which to see some significant components of the financial crisis. This is particularly apparent if we sufficiently account for the role that the two privately owned but congressionally chartered American mortgage corporations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, played in the crisis. These two huge companies were placed into conservatorship by the American federal government in September 2008. This move gave direct operational control over the corporations to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) – an independent federal regulatory agency. At the same time, the American government took effective responsibility for the liabilities of the corporations, which totalled $5.4 trillion. Strikingly, this move was not so much a moment of discontinuity brought about by the explosion of the financial crisis in the autumn of 2008, but in an important sense the culmination of a long-standing relationship between the American state and the two corporations, which had already played its part in the development of the crisis through the subprime-boom.     

Hyperpower Exceptionalism: Globalisation the American Way

We are in a unique position because of our unique assets, because of the character of our people, the strength of our ideals, the might of our military and the enormous economy that supports it. (Vice-President Dick Cheney, addressing the Council on Foreign Relations, February 2002) Today's era is dominated by American power, American culture, the American dollar and the American navy. (Thomas Friedman, 2000) In international affairs the USA displays growing unilateralism. International development policies have been constrained by the Washington consensus. The USA fails to sign on to international greening protocols. Until recently the USA was perennially in arrears in United Nations dues. On several occasions (such as Nicaragua, Panama) the USA has not followed international legal standards and it ignores the International Court if its verdict goes against it. American policies contribute to the enduring stalemate in the Middle East. Take any global problem and the USA is both the major player and the major bottleneck. It is a reasonable question to ask whether this is just a matter of the current US administration or whether more profound dynamics are at work.