发展科技服务业助推海峡西岸经济区打造先进制造业基地

先进制造业的“先进性”主要体现在研发能力高端、生产技术先进、生产效率高效、产品附加值和科技含量高、资源消耗少,然而当前海峡西岸经济区制造业离先进制造业仍存在较大的差距.为此,海峡西岸经济区科技服务业的发展要以提升制造业的生产效率、附加值、科技含量为目标,只有这样才能推动区域制造业向先进制造业发展.     

新开放时代增强我国制造业国际竞争力的战略思考

制造业全球竞争已经全面展开,显示了与过去完全不同的特征。我国是全球制造业规模最大的国家,但还不是全球制造业最强的国家。面对竞争,我国制造业国际竞争力总体究竟如何,需要有一个全面准确的判断。本文将我国制造业分为传统制造业与新兴制造业两部分,分别分析了这两类制造业现实的国际竞争力,认为我国的传统制造业目前是有国际竞争力的,新兴制造业是尚不具备国际竞争力的;然而,传统制造业的竞争力正在弱化,因为其产出效率与附加价值创造存在不足。因此,如何进一步保持传统制造业的国际竞争力并提高新兴制造业国际竞争力就成为我国制造业进一步转型发展的重要目标。为此,本文给出了新的战略思路以及可行的战略对策,这就是"抓住制造业变革的历史机遇,从提高效率入手,增强制造业人力资本,确立新的比较优势基础,通过开放式自主创新实现技术突破,直接把握全球制造业的价值链高端,形成我国制造业的核心竞争力,形成具有强大国际竞争力的新型先进制造业,实现从制造大国转变为制造强国"。     

比较优势动态转换与产业升级——基于中国制造业发展指标的国际比较

通过对国内外比较优势与产业升级理论的梳理,创新性地将其概括为比较优势动态转换的三条途径与产业升级的四个维度,并将二者结合起来,构建中国制造业比较优势动态转换与产业升级的理论框架,对中国制造业发展指标进行国际比较研究,得到如下结论:从垂直结构升级考察,中国制造业呈现全方位崛起的态势,完成了从低端产业向高端产业的升级;从水平结构升级考察,依据进口中间品国内配套增值率指数测算,中国制造业国内集成配套能力较强,但依据进出口中间品增值率指数测算,中国制造业在全球价值链中分工地位较低;从产业效率考察,中国制造业技术效率世界领先;而全要素生产率及其分解显示,中国制造业技术进步水平还存在较大的差距;从产业效益考察,中国制造业增加值率低下,但作为增加值构成要素的税收占比很高,中国制造业出口占总产值比重在世界排序较低,中国内需市场潜力巨大。     

科学认识外汇储备、战略转移投资领域——外储管理体制改革的顶层设计

外汇储备的定义、本质、来源与功能 形式上,外汇储备是指一国央行所持有的国际储备资产中的外汇部分,即一国政府保有的以外币表示的债权,是一个国家货币当局持有并可以随时兑换外国货币的资产. 本质上,外汇储备是一国政府通过货币发行权集中持有的以外币标示的国际财富或资产,即归属于本国的国际资产. 从来源上,外汇储备分两类:一是由外贸顺差形成的权益性资产,这是经常项目差额积累下来的国际净财富.简单讲,我国这部分外汇储备是用出口商品与外币对换得来的,钱货两清后,我国是这部分外汇的拥有者,可以自由支配.目前,中国拥有这类权益性财富的总额大概2万多亿美元.二是资本和金融项目形成的债务性资产,如外资流入等.简单讲,我国这部分外汇储备是用人民币与美元相交换得来的,主要包括外商直接投资和我国外债.对于我国而言,这部分外汇储备是债务性资产,不能随意动用.目前,中国拥有这类债务性资产近万亿美元左右.债务性资产可分为长期和短期两种,前者主要指外国在中国的实业投资和长期债券投资,这部分债务性外汇资产的流动性较小,我们使用的空间比较大;后者主要指外国在中国的证券投资和不明目的的热钱,这部分债务性外汇随时都有可能撤出中国,因此需要灵活使用.     

Globalization and deindustrialization: Myth and reality in the OECD

Globalization and Deindustrialization: Myth and Reality in the OECD. — Has global integration adversely impacted workers in the US and Europe? The expansion of trade and other linkages with the South has been blamed for a multitude of ills in the North, including the contraction of manufacturing employment. Utilizing panel data for OECD countries, this paper examines the relationship between “deindustrialization” and differential productivity growth, Dutch disease, human capital accumulation and trade flows. Empirical results indicate there is a statistically and economically significant link between imports from the South and the manufacturing share of employment and real value added, even after controlling for other plausible causes of deindustrialization.     

Regional concentration in the United States and Europe: Who follows whom?

Regional Concentration in the United States and Europe: Who Follows Whom? — This paper investigates differences in the regional concentration of manufacturing in the United States and in Europe. We use a new data set (value added and employment, comparable number of regions in the United States and Europe, manufacturing disaggregated into 10 sectors, period 1987–1995/98). The main result is that the level of regional concentration is indeed higher in the United States, although the difference is much less than suggested by past studies, which relied on employment figures. Regional concentration has been declining over time, faster in the United States thus converging to the lower European level from above. In Europe, this tendency has been specifically evident since the installment of the Single Market Program.     

辽宁装备制造业竞争力评价及影响因素分析——基于产品附加值视角

结合辽宁装备制造业向高技术、高附加值靠拢的发展趋势，通过在内生增长理论模型上嵌入成本发现模型的定性分析，提出装备制造业产品附加值的影响因素；从附加值低这一短板因素出发，采用聚类分析的定量研究方法，将辽宁省与部分地区的竞争力水平进行测算并做以横向对比。结果表明，辽宁装备制造业竞争力影响因素除了人均资本积累、人均自然资源存量，还有内部知识的积累、外部知识的获得、国家的体制与政策环境。     

增加值视角下金砖国家制造业的贸易利得与竞争力研究

基于贸易增加值核算的基本原理,对金砖五国制造业出口增加值进行分解,同时利用标准显示性竞争指数测算金砖国家制造业竞争力,研究发现：中国的贸易利得与庞大的出口总额严重不匹配,其他金砖四国的贸易利得远远高于中国;对中国、巴西和印度而言,基于国内增加值测算的NRCA值要高于基于出口总额测算的NRCA值,而俄罗斯和南非恰恰相反;金砖五国在低技术制造业上表现出各自的竞争优势,除了中国在电子通信和光学设备制造业及机械制造业有相对的竞争优势外,金砖五国整体上在高技术产业层面与美日德等发达国家存在较大差距。应从培育高级要素、产能合作、共建科技创新体系等方面来提高金砖国家制造业竞争力。     

2010年中国经济走入偏热区间

关于2010年中国经济步走入偏热区间的问题，可以从以下四个方面探讨。     

China,Like the US,Faces Challenges in Achieving Inclusive Growth through Manufacturing

For more than three decades the goal of becoming “the factory of the world” has been at the core of China's development strategy. This strategy, in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low rates of consumption, has made Chinese production the most manufacturing intensive in the world. But as its wages have risen, China's competitiveness in the most labor‐intensive manufacturing industries has eroded. Its ability to assemble products remains a major source of its exports, but it has also tried to shift toward more sophisticated value‐added production domestically. Chinese domestic spending has shifted away from investment toward consumption as citizens' income has grown. Like Americans, Chinese are also spending more on services than on manufactured goods. All of these changes are fundamentally altering the structure of China's production, reducing the role of manufacturing and increasing the skill levels of workers in manufacturing. This paper reviews the challenges posed by these developments for China's long‐term goal of achieving more inclusive growth. It presents evidence that the commonly held perceptions that Chinese manufacturing employment growth is robust are wrong. In fact, such growth has peaked and China is now following a pattern of structural change that is typical of a more mature emerging economy, in which the share of employment in manufacturing declines as workers are increasingly employed in services.     

外资撤离速度与制造业转型升级——基于CGE对IT制造业的仿真分解分析

近年来，IT制造业等外资依赖性较强的产业面临的外资撤离风险不断升高，如何衡量和评估不同撤离速度下内资企业的发展稳定性和实现转型升级的支撑性?文章将CGE模型数值模拟与DEA分解分析相结合，考察不同外资撤离速度场景对IT制造业内资企业的影响，以及机制和路径。结果表明：1、当外资流入为0或者其存量以5%的速度小幅持续撤离时，内资企业受影响较小。较高的资本深化率、技术效率和技术进步使得其能够较快填补市场空白，具备企稳回升的能力；2、当外资存量以25%的较高速度撤离时，内资企业由于技术进步受到抑制，劳动生产率处于不可扭转的持续下滑趋势；3、外资企业在可见预期内仍然将是内资企业的主要技术进步来源，外资撤离会通过抑制内资企业技术进步，从而约束资本深化和技术效率的路径中对内资企业的稳定发展和转型升级产生负面影响。基于上述研究，文章提出相关政策启示和建议。     

基于全球价值链的中国医药制造业国际竞争力和国别依赖评估

以WIOD（世界投入产出数据库）为基础，运用WWZ全球价值链分解方法，对中国医药制造业出口增加值进行解构，并基于增加值构建显示性竞争优势指数、国别依赖度等指标，评估中国医药制造业的真实状况。评估结果表明：从竞争力看，中国医药制造业出口处于比较劣势；从国内增加值率看，呈“V”形演进态势；从影响力看，中国对下游影响度小于对上游的依赖度；从国别依赖看，中国对美国出口依赖度、上游依赖度最高，但呈逐年下降态势。     

Looking into global value chains: influence of foreign services on export performance

Using data from the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output database, we explore the impact of foreign services value added content of exports on export performance, specifically on duration of trade. Our data show that the share of foreign services content in manufacturing exports grows from 1995 to 2011, in a way similar to foreign goods content, and in contrast to the decreasing share of domestic services. Moreover, the share of foreign services value added content is larger for developing and emerging countries than for advanced countries. Our econometric findings confirm that foreign services value added embodied in manufacturing exports contribute positively to more resilient exports relationships, a positive effect which occurs for the three groups of manufacturing industries (high, medium and low technology industries) and, for each group, it is more pronounced for developing and emerging economies.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN INDONESIAN MANUFACTURING

This paper estimates new elasticities of value added with respect to labour and capital in Indonesian manufacturing, controlling for the simultaneity problem that potentially exists between the choice of input levels and a productivity shock (such as an increase in productivity due to new production processes), for plant exit, and for quasi-constant unobservable plant characteristics. It does so by applying the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) production function estimator to plant-level value added, fixed assets, labour, and electricity consumption data over the period 1988–95. This methodology allows us to revisit the previously used growth accounting based elasticities, and thereby improves total factor productivity (TFP) estimates. The results show that, in the period under study, aggregate TFP growth in Indonesian manufacturing was higher than had previously been estimated.     

Financial development,institutions and industrialization in sub-Saharan Africa

Using a panel data covering more than 100 countries worldwide, we have estimated a dynamic panel model to investigate the relationship between financial development and manufacturing industries’ growth. More specifically, we have estimated the effect that institutional quality might have in this relationship in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The results show that lower quality institutions in SSA are a hindrance to the role financial development plays in the growth of the manufacturing industrial sector, as compared with developed countries. These findings are robust when a quantile regression model is used. Furthermore, the results confirm that the relationship between per capita GDP and industrialization is nonlinear. Finally, in SSA, the abundance of natural resources has an adverse effect on the manufacturing industrial value added, providing more evidence for the Dutch disease hypothesis.     

An analysis of the impact of the first phase of South Africa's motor industry development programme (midp), 1995–2000

The South African motor vehicle industry is an important branch of the local manufacturing sector, contributing significantly to manufacturing value added and employment. Over the last decade, the local industry has undergone a series of policy reforms, and in recent years has increasingly been exposed to globalisation. This article reviews the role of government policy in shaping the industry, and examines the impact of the first phase of the Motor Industry Development Programme on the industry for the period 1995–2000 in respect of domestic production, automotive industry employment, export performance and the automotive trade balance. The article concludes that even though the industry registered strong export growth that contributed to improving the automotive trade deficit, it was deficient in sustaining domestic production and employment levels. The imminent challenge for the local industry's development is to maintain its export growth trajectory in the long term in the absence of costly government protective incentive mechanisms.     

联合风险投资对制造业企业技术创新能力的影响

基于联合风险资本为企业带来的增值服务,本文研究了联合风险投资机构的介入可能给制造业企业技术创新能力所带来的影响,并通过深圳创业板市场中制造业企业2011-2014年的数据进行了实证检验分析。研究结果表明,联合风险投资的介入正向促进制造业企业的技术创新能力,但持股比例过高会产生抑制作用;并进一步检验了联合风险投资的介入分别与以股权结构、董事会结构以及管理层激励为代表的公司治理结构产生的交互效应对制造业企业技术创新能力的影响。     

中国仅仅是制造大国吗——基于出口增加值测算角度

文章从出口增加值测算角度,对1995-2011年中国出口中的制造和服务含量进行分析。结果表明:（1）中国服务出口总值基本赶上甚至一度超越了制造出口总值,中国同样也是"服务大国",其中由制造业间接出口的服务含量超过了由服务业直接出口的服务含量;（2）中国服务出口的国内增值能力弱于制造出口,日本、韩国、美国、中国台湾、德国等发达国家或地区是中国出口价值的主要外部来源地,中国本土的制造和服务在全球化分工中需要实现自我提升;（3）中国产品在主要进口市场所占份额整体上呈现出上升趋势,相比国际服务市场,中国产品在国际制造市场上拥有更大的覆盖面和影响力。文章的研究为制造和服务产业融合发展提供了新的理论和数据支撑。     

Offshoring, domestic outsourcing and productivity: evidence for a number of European countries

The growth in offshoring and its economic effects have been subject to extensive empirical analysis. Yet, many studies have not distinguished accurately between offshoring, domestic outsourcing, and supplier changes. The present study provides stylized facts on offshoring in Europe between 1995 and 2008 taking into account this distinction. This study shows that service activities have been systematically offshored and outsourced domestically during this period, whereas manufacturing activities have been systematically offshored or moved from domestic to foreign suppliers. Overall the share of internal production has gone down by 4.5 percentage points, which raises the question whether firms have achieved productivity gains through this specialisation effort. Combining industry-level data on offshoring and domestic outsourcing with a firm panel, this study finds that service offshoring and offshoring of non-core manufacturing activities have contributed to an increase in productivity, whereas no statistically significant link is found for offshoring of core manufacturing activities and domestic outsourcing. The estimated productivity gains are found to be driven in particular by the gains of multinational firms.     

Changing Structure and Competition in THE Kretek Cigarette Industry

Kretekproduction has developed from a traditional industry into an important manufacturing sector in terms of value added, employment and government revenue. Kretek firms have outcompeted the large foreign “white” cigarette companies. Originating in the late 19th century, the industrygrew only after World War II. Production rose from 20 billion cigarettes in 1961 to 140 billion in 1993, and employment from 65,500 workers in 1929 to 137,600 in 1993 This success was confined mainly to the four largest firms, the number of kretek firms has shrunk from 1,200 in the 1950s to 141 in 1993 The industry is highly concentrated in Central and East Java, but consumption is widespread throughout the archipelago. Government intervention is high, in employment, taxation, pricing and investment policy, in promotion of small-scale firms and through the clove marketing monopoly Promotion of small-scale enterprises has been unsuccessful in this industry