Is corporate payout taxation a long run phenomenon? Evidence from international data

This paper examines whether dividend and capital gains taxation influences corporate payout policy using the country level data of 21 countries in panel versions of time series models. We find that dividend relative to capital gains tax penalty is cointegrated with corporate payouts (dividends and share repurchases) i.e. corporate payout taxation may be a long run phenomenon. Further, the cointegrating vector estimates are largely consistent with the traditional view of dividend taxation whereby the tax penalty discourages dividends, while the estimates give limited support to the premise that firms substitute dividends for share repurchases in response to an increase in dividend tax penalty. Long run causality also operates between the tax penalty and payouts in the error correction models. Additionally, dividend tax appears to be more influential than capital gains tax on dividend payout decisions. Lastly, taxation affects dividends more significantly in countries with high investor protection.     

The interaction of corporate dividend policy and capital structure decisions under differential tax regimes

We develop a valuation model that integrates corporate capital structure and dividend payout policies. The resulting “extended” Miller (J Financ 32:261–297, 1977) model explicitly incorporates the different tax rates on corporate income, personal interest, dividends, and capital gains. We apply the model to ten different U.S. tax regimes since 1979 and generate several testable predictions. When the dividend tax rate exceeds the capital gains tax rate, dividend payout can partially offset value-enhancing effects of leverage. When the two rates are close, dividend payout loses its moderating influence. Using the S&P 1500 universe, we obtain empirical results that are consistent with the model’s predictions.     

Ex-dividend day abnormal returns for special dividends

Past research shows that the difference between dividend amount and ex-dividend day price drop reflects the transaction costs and the differential in the tax rates on dividends and capital gains. Moreover, it is also documented that the higher the dividend yield, the lower is the ex-dividend day return. This paper focuses on large special dividends and tests the two competing hypothesis, tax hypothesis and short term trading hypothesis. Our focus on large special dividends is motivated by the following three considerations. First, special dividends have experienced a surge in recent years. Second, special dividends are important for dividend capture by institutions, corporations and arbitragers. Third, using a sample of large special dividends allows us to reduce the market microstructure effects and focus more directly on the two competing hypotheses. Based on a sample of large special dividends, we find that price drop on ex-dividend day is significantly less than the dividend amount. Furthermore, we show that ex-dividend day returns are positive and hence, are not fully arbitraged away. Our tests indicate that tax hypothesis explains some portion of ex-dividend day abnormal returns even for large special dividends, whereas the support for the short-term trading hypothesis is weak.     

The 1986 Tax Reform Act and ex-dividend day price and volume patterns: Evidence from organized exchanges and the OTC market

By effectively removing the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains, the 1986 Tax Reform Act provides a unique opportunity to re-examine the “tax induced clientele” explanation of ex-dividend day price behavior. The analysis indicates an increased preference for dividends and provides evidence of significant abnormal volume during the ex-dividend period, consistent with dividend induced trading activity. In addition, the level of dividend preference is found to be far greater on the organized exchanges than in OTC trading.     

Tax Regimes and Capital Gains Realizations

This paper contrasts the individual capital gains realization behavior between progressive and proportional tax regimes. Using a longitudinal panel of over 288,000 individuals in Sweden, I exploit the 1991 tax reform in Sweden that changed progressive capital gains tax rates ranging from 12% to 80% to a proportional tax rate of 30%. Using the proportional tax system to control for non-tax reasons to realize capital gains, I show that individuals are highly responsive to capital gains tax incentives created by temporary income changes under a progressive capital gains tax. More specifically, I find that individuals with temporary negative (positive) income changes sell (hold) shares that they would hold (sell) in the absence of temporary tax incentives. Further, I show that high-income individuals are more tax sensitive than low-income individuals. This result indicates that low-income individuals facing temporary negative income changes could trade predominantly for non-tax reasons.     

Sooner or Later? – Paradoxical Investment Effects of Capital Gains Taxation under Simultaneous Investment and Abandonment Flexibility

This paper analyzes the impact of capital gains taxation on investment timing decisions for risky investment projects with entry and exit flexibility under differential tax rates for ordinary income and capital gains. We investigate whether capital gains taxation influences immediate and delayed investments asymmetrically, given the optimal abandonment decision. If capital gains taxation induces a lock-in effect, this effect is anticipated in the investment timing decision. In contrast to prior research, our numerical simulations show that this lock-in effect of capital gains taxation can induce normal as well as paradoxical effects on investment timing under simultaneous entry and exit flexibility. A paradoxical timing effect, i.e., investment accelerated by capital gains taxation, especially emerges for high liquidation proceeds or, more conservative tax accounting, low interest rates, and low volatilities. In these cases, capital gains taxation reduces the value of the option to invest and hereby increases the propensity to invest immediately. As a second paradoxical tax effect, capital gains taxation may favor delayed real investment over financial investment. Facing these results, tax legislators should not use capital gains taxation as a short-term tax policy instrument to influence investors' timing decisions.     

Corporate investment,dividend decisions,differential taxation and the no-arbitrage condition

Masulis and Trueman (1988) investigated corporate investment and dividend decisions under differential personal taxation. They assumed investors in different tax brackets, a state-preference complete market (which includes pure securities for each state) with a ban on short-selling. They concluded that shareholders prefer non-zero dividend payment. In their model, the restrictions on short-sales were needed to bound tax arbitrage profits, among investors in different tax brackets, so that equilibrium could be reached. However, the joint assumptions of complete markets, and restrictions on short-selling, are inconsistent. By utilizing more recent results, from the tax arbitrage literature, we allow short-selling, and examine the role and implications of the no-arbitrage condition. We show that, with investors in different tax brackets, equilibrium is feasible. We conclude that a revised Masulis and Trueman type model does not explain a non-zero optimal dividend policy.     

我国证券市场中的所得税问题研究

欧美和日本等国家的上市公司偏好于债务融资,而我国的上市公司在进行融资决策时普遍采用"轻债务重股权"的方法。本文认为这主要是因为我国的所得税制中存在对股权收益的部分征税、重复征税,对证券的投资收益和转让利得实行差别税收政策,以及存在非债务税收保护措施等,所以必须有针对性地改革现行税制,对股息所得征税遵循"同股同利"的原则,清理不恰当的非债务税收保护措施,减轻对股利的重复课税以及改革证券市场的资本利得税。     

Property Tax and Housing Returns

This paper evaluates the effects of property tax on housing. While land tax and capital gains tax are widely used for curbing hoarding of land and speculation, its effectiveness is inconclusive. The imposition of a capital gains tax will impair the liquidity of property transaction, lower the rate of return on property investment, and reduce revenue from land sales which represents an important tax resource for the communities. This paper shows that a capital gains tax is capitalized into housing prices. Individuals tend to postpone the purchase of houses because of transaction taxes. Using an impulse response function, we show that a transaction tax has a dynamic negative impact on housing returns. While this paper focuses on Hong kong, for the purpose of comparison Singapore and Taiwan are also discussed.     

A tax-based motive for the underpricing of initial public offerings

This paper presents a model of entrepreneurial wealth maximization for the pricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). It is an extension of one previously presented in the literature. The model shows that personal tax rates on ordinary income and capital gains may, in part, determine IPO pricing: an increase in the capital gains tax rate should lower the degree of underpricing. An empirical analysis of the effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which raised the capital gains tax rate, shows that the average degree of underpricing did decrease as predicted, and that this occurs after controlling for other possible influences.     

The effects of taxes and dividend policy on capital accumulation and macroeconomic behavior

This paper analyzes the macrodynamic effects of changes in various tax rates in an intertemporal optimizing framework. Two aspects emphasized include the role of dividend policy and the behavior of the stock market. Both permanent and temporary tax changes are considered, with the transitional adjustment paths being characterized in detail. The contrast between the short-run and long-run effects is highlighted. In particular, an increase in any of the tax rates will cause short-run employment to fall, and with the capital stock fixed instantaneously, the capital-labor ratio immediately rises. Over time, as the capital stock declines, the capital-labor ratio falls.     

Corporate income tax and futures hedging

Our research is motivated by the Corn Products vs. Arkansas Best Supreme Court decisions that pitched the controversy of the tax treatment of gains and losses from futures hedging. The use of futures contracts as risk management tools depends on the tax code. In this paper we address complications in the current tax code that allow for asymmetric offset: Ordinary losses can be applied against capital gains; however, capital losses cannot by applied against ordinary gains. Also we consider the issue of tax loss carryover. We investigate the optimal hedge ratios under these scenarios analytically where possible, and numerically where necessary. Michael Metz is an independent commodity market consultant.     

Proposals to Tax Life Insurance Savings as Personal Income

A bstract . Proposals to tax the realized net increment built up in life insurance policies amount to suggestions that we tax rewards to suppliers of capital. As tax policy it would tend to discourage capital accumulation. Many types of income and of capital gains are not taxed as a matter of social policy. Taxing the "inside buildup" would obstruct the building up of a capital base for the family and the economy. Economists recognize that there are alternatives, e.g. , a consumption based tax. In a time of great need for capital, a time of capital shortage, this tax policy would be retrogressive.     

On the “Lock-In” Effects of Capital Gains Taxation

The most important drawback of a tax on realized capital gains is its “lock-in” effect. This paper uses a simple land development model to examine the distortion that the lock-in effect generates. A surprising result is that the lock-in effect does not arise if the basis for the capital gains tax (usually the price at which the current owner acquired the land) is sufficiently high. Rather than delaying the sale, the owner sells the land as soon as possible even if the land will be developed much later. In this case, the capital gains tax creates no “real” distortion because it does not affect the development time. In particular, if the basis is the price formed under perfect foresight, the lock-in effect never arises.     

Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?

We study the welfare effect of tax-optimizing portfolio decisions in a life cycle model with unspanned labor income and realization-based capital gain taxation. For realistic parameterizations of our model, certainty equivalent welfare gains from fully tax-optimized portfolio decisions are less than 2% of present financial wealth and lifetime income compared to a heuristic portfolio policy ignoring the taxation of profits (capital gains, interest and dividend payments). Compared to a heuristic portfolio policy that only ignores the realization-based feature of capital gain taxation and instead assumes mark-to-market taxation, these gains are less than 0.5%. That is, our work provides a justification for ignoring taxes in life cycle portfolio choice problems – a wide-spread assumption in that literature. However, if capital gains are forgiven at death (as in the U.S.), investors with strong bequest motives face substantial welfare costs when not tax-optimizing their portfolio decisions towards the end of the life cycle.     

INTERACTION OF LAND POLICY AND LAND-BASED TAX POLICY: THE VERMONT LAND GAINS TAX

In 1973, the State of Vermont became the first jurisdiction in the United States to enact a land gains tax. The tax had two purposes: raising revenue and deterrring land speculation and subdivision, which were changing the rural, village character of the state's landscape. The land gains tax derived from many of the same forces as Act 250, Vermont's 1970 land use planning and environmental control legislation. Both measures had many positive effects during the 1970s and 1980s, but, following continued growth, land speculation and subdivision, and loss of farmland in the state in the mid-1980s, both the land gains tax and land use planning and regulation were readdressed by the legislature in 1987 and 1988.     

Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Italian Economy

A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Italian economy is used to assess the impact of carbon taxation (or auctioned carbon permits), where additional revenue is used to cut either existing taxes on labor or on capital income. Simulation results do not support the existence of the so-called "double dividend" when labor taxes are reduced, whereas lower tax rates on capital have mild positive effects on growth and welfare, with progressivity properties on income distribution. These findings hinge on the assumptions of open economy, given world interest rate, and capital mobility.     

从东北地区增值税转型效果谈我国的增值税改革

文中通过总结东北地区实行增值税改革所取得的效果,分析增值税在不同历史经济发展阶段所起的作用。从我国现行经济状况及国际增值税发展趋势分析出现行增值税的不足,强调现阶段增值税改革在我国的必要性。从而得出现阶段我国实行增值税转型、改革是十分必要的。     

Miller and Modigliani,Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration*

This paper investigates the use of alternative measures of dividend yields to predict US aggregate stock returns. Following Miller and Modigliani [Journal of Business (1961), Vol. 34, pp. 411–433] we construct a cashflow yield that includes both dividend and non‐dividend cashflows to shareholders. Using a data set covering the course of the 20th century, we show in a cointegrating vector autoregression framework that this measure has strong and stable predictive power for returns. The weak predictive power of standard measures of the dividend yield is explained by the strong rejection of the implied cointegrating and causality restrictions on the impact of non‐dividend cashflows.     

Housing as an asset and the effects of property taxation on the residential development process

A model of residential development is constructed recognizing the asset side of land and housing. The equilibrium process is characterized under the perfect foresight assumption, and the effects of a capital gains tax (both unanticipated and anticipated) and a tax on property values are examined.