NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AT CONSTANT PRICES

This article discusses the problem of compiling a balanced set of national accounts at constant prices. The method adopted is based on earlier work on this subject by Burge and Geary. Commodity flows, which are uniquely deflatable, are expressed at constant prices and savings in constant prices is obtained by preserving a balanced set of equations in real terms. The deflation of the external account is discussed.
A method is suggested for expressing the national income account in real terms and an "income gain" is deduced for each industrial sector which represents the difference between real income and real product in that sector. The sum of the income gains for the domestic sectors is zero.
The constituents of the income/expenditure accounts of households, corporations and general government are expressed at constant prices by selecting suitable deflators in a consistent manner. The accounts in real terms are now unbalanced and are balanced again by inserting a balancing item which is shown to represent a gain to the sector arising from changes in the terms of trade between the sectors. This item is called an "expenditure gain". The sum of the expenditure gains for the institutional sectors is zero.
The system suggested can be extended to cover additional items in the accounts and thus a complete set of national accounts in real terms can be derived.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY WITH GEOGRAPHICAL AND INTERTEMPORAL PRICE DISPERSION: EVIDENCE FROM RWANDA

It is not known to what extent welfare measures result from seasonal and geographical price differences rather than from differences in living standards across households. Using data from Rwanda in 1983, we show that the change in mean living standard indicators caused by local and seasonal price deflation is moderately significant at every quarter. By contrast, the differences in poverty measures caused by this deflation can be considerable, for chronic as well as transient or seasonal poverty indicators. Thus, poverty monitoring and anti-poverty targeting can be badly affected by inaccurate deflation of living standard data. Moreover, when measuring seasonal poverty, the deflation based on regional prices instead of local prices only partially corrects for spatial price dispersion. Using annual local prices instead of quarterly local prices only yields a partial deflation, which distorts the measure of poverty fluctuations across seasons and biases estimates of annual and chronic poverty.     

AN ALTERNATIVE TO DOUBLE DEFLATION FOR MEASURING REAL INDUSTRY VALUE-ADDED

This article proposes a new method to compute the real value-added of industries which would substitute for the traditional double deflation method. The new method consists of deflating industries' direct and indirect contributions to final demand deliveries (their value-added by commodity) by the respective final demand commodity prices. The article shows that the new industry real value-added measures have better statistical and analytical properties than those obtained by the double deflation method.     

QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR CONSTRUCTION

Construction has traditionally constituted one of the problem areas in the preparation of industry price and quantity statistm with in the system of national accounts of most countries. The difficulty stems from what is considered to be the unique character of construction projects. This has unnecessarily impeded the calculation of output price indexes and has resulted in the use of various input-based prices as proxies for output prices. One of the objectives of the development of the system of construction price statistics described in this paper is to permit deflation of the outputs of construction industries in order to produce industry output data in constant prices in a manner consistent with measures for the rest of the economy. This is a more promising approach to improving constant price industry and expenditure measures within the SNA framework than attempting such improvements through the collection of a vast array of quantity data. Construction industries sell specified configurations of materials-in-place which are, to borrow the jargon of other fields, sub-assemblies of some total system. As in other areas of industrial pricing, some of these products are simple and some are complex. Trade contractors sell these sub-assemblies or commodities mainly to an owner-builder or to a general contractor who, in turn, resells the trade contractors’ commodities along with whatever sub-assemblies the general contractor has produced. These sub-assemblies, when combined with, for example, the relevant outputs (or sub-assemblies) of manufacturers, the design services of service industries and the purchasers’ own contributions, yield the wide variety of plant and structures which constitute the various classes of gross fixed capital formation, which are not typically solely the outputs of the construction industries. The resulting contractors’ selling price indexes will provide deflators for the whole range of outputs of the various construction industries. These will become part of the system of industry selling price indexes from which relevant indexes for the various goods and services can be selected and combined with appropriate weights to yield arrays of deflators for the highly complex capital expenditures of business, institutions and government. Ultimately this integrated system of construction industry statistics will permit the preparation of gross output and value added measures, in both current and constant prices, to be calculated for the construction industries as an integral part of the Canadian System of National Accounts, as well as provide a key element for improving the deflation of fixed capital formation.     

Keynesian models of deflation and depression revisited

This paper extends Tobin's [Tobin, J., 1975. Keynesian models of recession and depression. American Economic Review 65, 195–202] Keynesian analysis of deflation to include a range of additional channels through which deflation exacerbates Keynesian unemployment. The paper provides further theoretical reasons why downward price level adjustment may not solve the Keynesian problem. These arguments challenge the received wisdom that Keynes’ General Theory is a special case resting on downwardly rigid prices and nominal wages. This conventional wisdom has led many economists to recommend policies promoting downward flexibility. These policies have created an environment in which deflation is more likely, giving new relevance to Keynesian analysis of deflation.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM 1830–1914

This paper presents a new annual series for United Kingdom gross national product, at current and constant prices, calculated from the expenditure side. These results differ significantly from previous estimates in that they go back to the beginning of the railway age on an annual basis and also in that the constant price estimates involve a detailed deflation of the main components of expenditure on consumption and capital formation. The implications of the new results are summarised, with particular reference to rates of growth and relative price changes, and an appendix describes the sources of the estimates.     

Exchange rate pass-through in deflation: The case of Taiwan

This paper incorporates deflation in an analysis of the relationship between the exchange rate pass-through and inflation. Using a nonlinear model based on monthly data of Taiwan's import prices from 1981 to 2008, we find that the degree of exchange rate pass-through is increasing in deflation. The increase becomes smaller when the price of oil is excluded. Evidence for pass-through increasing in deflation has not previously been found in the existing literature and presents a new understanding of the pricing behavior of firms. Poor profits in deflation cause firms to pass through most of the cost of exchange rate changes to their products to avoid exiting the market.     

CONCEPTS AND PROBLEMS OF CONSISTENCY IN TERMS-OF-TRADE ANALYSIS*

The debate on how to deal with changes of relative prices in national accounts has, so far, remained inconclusive, especially with regard to the question of how to measure gains from changes of terms of trade. Keeping the experiences of the 1970s in mind (i.e. substantial changes of relative prices sparked off by increased oil prices), this state of affairs is not considered tenable. On this background, the paper takes up the old debate on how to deflate figures of domestic product, total as well as by industries. It tries to argue that deflated figures should be presented not only as real product figures by industries (using the double deflation method), but also as real income figures, obtained by deflating the current-prices figures of a certain year by the same general price index. When this is done according to procedures spelled out in detail, gains/losses from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade will show up as an integral part of the framework. In the paper, special attention is given to the concept of industry terms of trade. On the basis of simplifying assumptions (which are, however, relaxed in the final part of the paper), it is shown how the ratio of real income divided by real product of a certain industry will be proportionate to the terms of trade of the industry concerned, when the latter concept is defined in the appropriate way. Furthermore, the sum of the industry gains/losses from changes of their terms of trade will be equal to the gain/loss of the economy taken as a whole from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade.     

PRICE ANALYSIS AND A SYSTEM OF PRICE STATISTICS

For some considerable time the interest in price statistics has mainly been focused on their use as "intermediate goods". The requirements of a system of price index numbers which have to be established in this connection are largely in the field of statistical coordination (integration of statistics on quantities, values and prices).
Recently the inflation problem has given rise to an increased interest in price statistics as "final goods". A meaningful analysis of inflation will devote attention to the relation between input prices and output prices. In this article several versions of an analysis of prices of final demand categories based on an ordinary Leontief input-output scheme are presented and the needs for price statistics are discussed. In fact a self-contained system of price statistics emerges from the price analysis.
There is a difference in the nature of the price index numbers required in compiling input-output tables in constant prices (Paasche) and that in the case of price analysis (Laspeyres). However the need for price observation runs largely parallel because in both cases the same detailed information on price developments will probably be used.
Price analysis gives the possibility of a step-by-step approach in building up a system of price index numbers.     

Path dependence of the general price level: A value theoretic analysis

The paper examines path dependence of price indexes, a problem that has become acute after international adoption of chain indexes for price and volume changes in the SNA93. Path dependence is an old issue of index numbers, and has been in the way of using chain indexes ever since their invention. The paper accepts chaining at its start, and tries to develop a sound deflation procedure from there. In this analysis path dependence is less an issue of appropriate formalization of a given concept, the traditional approach in index number theory, but rather a problem of developing an interpretation to a given and now worldwide recommended statistical practice. The key issue is found in the fact that money is not only the standard means of payment, concerning central banks, but also the standard of value in an economy, a feature that bears directly on the compilation of price indexes and national accounts. As a result, a chained weighted index is shown to be path independent, if it is interpreted as a change not of prices, but of the unit of account in which prices are expressed.     

AN EVALUATION OF THE USE OF HEDONIC REGRESSIONS FOR BASIC COMPONENTS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDICES

The importance of adjusting for quality changes in the measurement of consumer prices, and the role hedonic regressions can play in achieving this, is well recognised. However, the use of such regressions can take different forms, including (i) adjustments by statistical offices for non-comparable substitutions via the matched models method , (ii) direct estimates from the coefficients on dummy variables for time, and (iii) exact hedonic and superlative indices corresponding to a constant utility formulation from an economic theoretic approach. The literature on these approaches generally deals with each in isolation; the purpose of this paper is to outline and evaluate them in order to draw conclusions as to their practical suitability for the compilation of quality-adjusted consumer prices indexes. The case is argued for a move towards the last of these approaches, which developments in electronic data retrieval (scanner data) now make feasible. The paper concludes with the results of some empirical work comparing the results of the direct method with those from the exact, superlative, approach.     

AN APPROPRIATE SYSTEM FOR DEFLATION OF SECTORAL INCOME IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY ILLUSTRATED BY THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY FROM 1951 to 1965*

The technique of national income accounting is a part of what Hicks has termed “The Fixprice Method”. Deflation is an attempt to approximate a real economy to a fixprice economy. It is shown that if the propositions of macro-dynamics are to hold, this deflation cannot be done in accordance with the price structure prevailing at any particular historical time, but must use that given by the capital theory of value, viz., when returns to labour are equal to zero. For a labour-abundant developing economy this will correspond to prices based on opportunity cost principles. As an illustration, sectoral incomes on this basis have been calculated for the industrial sector of the Indian economy for the years 1951 to 1965.     

Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?

Japan has failed to escape from deflation despite an extraordinary monetary policy easing over the past 4 years. Monetary easing undoubtedly stimulated aggregate demand, leading to an improvement in the output gap. However, since the Phillips curve was almost flat, prices have hardly reacted at all. Against this background, the key question is why prices were so sticky. To examine this, we use sectoral price data for Japan and seven other countries including the USA, and use these data to compare the shape of the price change distribution across the eight countries. Our main finding is that Japan differs significantly from the other countries in that the mode of the distribution is very close to zero for Japan, while it is near 2% for other countries. This suggests that while in the USA and other countries the “default” is for firms to raise prices by about 2% each year, in Japan the default is that, as a result of prolonged deflation, firms keep their prices unchanged.     

HOUSE PRICES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA

An important element of the current monetary policy debate in Europe is the question of if and how house prices should be included in the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). This paper uses a signal extraction approach to inflation measurement to illustrate the impact of including house prices when the aggregate inflation measure is constructed by assigning weights to individual price series based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The inclusion of house prices in the HICP in this manner does not materially impact the appropriate stance of monetary policy. ( JEL E31, E52, E58)     

Foreign equity option pricing under stochastic volatility model with double jumps

This paper considers the challenging problem advocated by Huang and Hung (2005), that is to incorporate the stochastic volatility into the foreign equity option pricing. Foreign equity options (quanto options) are contingent claims where the payoff is determined by an equity in one currency but the actual payoff is done in another currency. Huang and Hung (2005) priced foreign equity options under the Lévy processes. In Huang and Hung's paper, they considered jumps in the foreign asset prices and exchange rates and assumed the volatility as constant. However, many studies showed that constant volatility and jumps in returns are incapable of fully capturing the empirical features of equity returns or option prices. In this paper, the stochastic volatility with simultaneous jumps in prices and volatility is proposed to model foreign asset prices and exchange rates. The foreign equity option pricing formula is given by using the Fourier inverse transformation. The numerical results show that the use of stochastic volatility with simultaneous jumps in prices and volatility proposed to model foreign asset prices and exchange rates is necessary and this approach can help us to capture more accurately the foreign equity option prices.     

关于中国“通缩出口”论的真伪性检验

本文根据国际贸易中价格传递效应的理论 ,通过考察中、日、美三国间进出口价格的相互影响来检验是否存在所谓中国“通缩出口”的现象。为了使检验结果更具有统计意义上的稳健性 (Robustness) ,论文除了保留自己前期研究方法上的特色以外 ,还根据结构变化检验 (ChowTest)的结果 ,将上述这些方法分阶段运用 ,同时 ,又进一步利用体系转换模型 (RegimeSwitchingModel)来考察受货币政策影响的三种价格环境的制约作用。另外 ,对冲击反应函数 (VMA)又做了因素确定的方差分解 (VarianceDecomposition) ,从而使得价格传递效应的动态特征被揭示得更为明显和更为充分。最后 ,文章得出了两个重要的政策含义 :首先 ,中国“通缩出口”论是基于传统的“支出转移效应”的宏观分析视角 ,忽略了进出口企业的定价能力 (PTM)等微观要素 ,所以 ,这种主张不符合现实情况。其次 ,一国可以通过稳定国内的物价环境来制约汇率和外国价格的传递效应 (Taylor’sRule) ,这一点在美国表现得尤为突出。     

THE INTEGRATION OF A SYSTEM OF PRICE AND QUANTITY STATISTICS WITH DATA ON RELATED VARIABLES

This paper has two main points. First, the usefulness of the industry detail called for in the SNA would be increased if it were altered to facilitate the construction of price and quantity aggregates classified by stage-of-process sectors. Second, the price and quantity data so arranged should be augmented by data on behaviorally related variables classified the same way. The feasibility of the stage-of-process approach is demonstrated by a table showing the high degree to which the U.S. input-output table for 1967 can be triangularized. The analytical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated through analysis of changes in prices, output, unfilled orders and finished goods inventories for primary and for finished goods manufacturers.     

WAGE–PRICE DYNAMICS AND DEFLATION IN HONG KONG

Abstract. We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics of prices and wages in Hong Kong. The results suggest that the post‐1997 deflation can be understood using a conventional macroeconomic framework wherein foreign influences constitute the basic underlying shocks, and adjustment processes in domestic wages and prices determine the details of the transmission mechanism. We find that the decline in local nominal prices owes much to declining prices of imported intermediate goods. The negative output gap and increase in unemployment during the deflation period also have their origin in foreign shocks, but the domestic wage adjustment process is an important contributing factor.     

THE ESTIMATION OF PRICE EFFECTS IN A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX

The estimation of true basic prices in a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) has long been recognized as necessary in order to achieve uniform valuation of inputs for meaningful manipulation of the input-output table contained in a SAM, in order to assess the real effects of changes in demand, etc. In practice, approximate basic prices only have normally been calculated in order to avoid matrix inversion among other things. It is equally the case that true basic prices are required if one wishes to assess the price-raising effects of commodity taxes. It is shown through an example that approximate basic prices, as conventionally calculated, are inadequate and potentially misleading for this as indeed they are for achieving uniformity of valuation. There are also problems with the present procedure for calculating true basic prices.
An alternative method of calculating true basic prices is given, which has various advantages over the existing method, and a new approximate method is also derived which appears to represent a definite improvement on the present method. For the main purpose of the paper, however, the prices of concern are those charged by producers to which the methodology equally applies.