European Union Market Access Conditions and Africa's Extensive Margin of Food Trade

This paper examines the impact of two European Union (EU) market access regulations in the food sector presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export food products to the EU. We analysed EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non‐tariff measure in the form of a minimum entry price regulation, which aims to protect EU growers of certain fruits and vegetables against international competition. Analysis was based on Africa's exports of tomatoes, oranges, and lime and lemon to the EU between 2008 and 2013, using the gravity model of trade. Our results show that EU market access conditions constitute significant barrier to the formation of new trade relation between the EU and Africa. In addition, initiation of trade relationships is contingent not only on market access conditions but also on domestic market constraints in Africa. These results imply that negotiating preferential entry prices duties and the removal of domestic market restraints as well as strengthening domestic capacity to comply with EU standards to enhance continuous market access for the continent could stimulate food trade along the extensive margin.     

Consequences of European Union Enlargement for Spain

This article analyses the effects that EU Eastern enlargement will have on the Spanish economy. As opposed to the widespread belief that the major impact on Spain will stem from the reduction of Community funds received, the impact on two real variables is also analysed here, namely trade and foreign direct investment, and evidence is offered of the restructuring of economic activity in the enlarged Europe and its effects on the Spanish economy. In addition, the competition for Spain of the new partners in the Community market is also examined. One of the most noteworthy results is that the competition of the new members of the European market is becoming stronger, as they have a commercial structure that is becoming more and more similar to Spain's and with a greater technological content. This phenomenon appears to be the outcome of the activity of the multinationals, which are re‐organising their activity and transferring part of their production to Central Europe to capitalise on the cost advantages of the new members and their more strategic geographical situation. Furthermore, evidence is put forward that, if the criteria for eligibility for the Structural and Cohesion Funds are not altered, Spain will be one of the countries in which the budgetary situation will deteriorate most in the post‐enlargement EU.     

Does EU Enlargement Increase Agro‐Food Export Duration?

This paper examines the impact of EU enlargement on agro‐food export performance across 12 new EU member states and five newly independent states in the EU markets covering the period 1999 to 2007. The performance is examined by duration of export and hazard model. We find larger duration for the agro‐food exports from the new EU member states. The results confirm gains from the eastward EU enlargement and governance on export increases and longer duration for exporting higher value‐added specialized consumer‐ready food and more competitive niche agro‐food products.     

Enlargement and the European Geography of the Information Technology Sector

The information technology sector in Europe, comprising the production of computer hardware and software, is disproportionately located on the continent's western periphery. The vast bulk of computers sold in Europe in the 1990s were assembled either in Ireland or Scotland, while Ireland also accounted for over 40 per cent of all packaged software and 60 per cent of all business software sold in Europe. As the sector in both these locations is largely foreign owned, the question arises as to whether EU enlargement might impact on the geography of the sector by diverting information technology FDI from the western to the new eastern periphery. This issue is explored in the present paper by analysis of five individual sub‐segments: computer assembly and electronic components, R&D, mass‐market packaged software and the remainder of the software sector. The paper deems it likely that computer assembly operations will continue the shift seen in recent years from Ireland and Scotland to Central and Eastern Europe. The production of electronic components such as microchips represents a growing share of activity in most EU locations as well as in the CEE countries. Analysis suggests that this pattern of geographically‐dispersed growth will resume once the consequences of the collapse of the high‐tech bubble are played out. The distribution of R&D activity across Europe and globally is also considered unlikely to be much affected by enlargement. As for software, as long as localisation activities remain important, Ireland – the EU location in which most of this activity is carried out – seems set to be able to compete strongly, given the attractiveness of its English‐language environment and other attributes to the young continental Europeans upon which this activity relies. Most software services remain largely non‐tradable however. This sector will grow in the accession states as computer penetration rates converge on the EU average, but without displacing activity from the incumbent EU member states. For firms already competing in the tradable niche software segment, on the other hand, enlargement cannot but be beneficial because of its impact on the size of the market into which they sell.     

Sweet and Sour Changes in Trade Regimes

Sugar is an important export for a number of developing countries, especially in the African, Caribbean and Pacific regions. In many of these countries, preferential access to the EU market has been a key factor to develop their sugar sectors. The recent and proposed changes to the international sugar trade regimes, particularly in the EU, are threatening this preferential access. We study the possible implications of such changes on ACP countries’ sugar production and exports by using a spatial price equilibrium model specifically developed for the sugar market. The results suggest that the effects of these changes are likely to vary according to the prevailing level of world sugar market price and according to whether ACP countries are current exporters to the EU.     

Disentangling Market Access Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application for ASEAN Members under an ASEAN–EU FTA

The paper develops two synthetic measures at the HS‐10 level to depict effective market access for a country receiving preferential access and applies these to the market access ASEAN members would receive following the implementation of an FTA with the EU. First, the measures show that current effective market access for ASEAN EBA members is cut in half by the preferences granted by the EU to countries that compete with these countries in the EU markets. Second, the measures show that about one‐quarter of the preferential margin under the proposed FTA for EBA members would be lost as a result of preferential access granted to ASEAN GSP members. Third, disaggregated estimates of the restrictiveness of rules of origin confirm that rules are more restrictive for products with higher preferential margins and that ASEAN countries usually face tougher rules of origin in the EU because of the composition of their exports.     

Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti‐dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2006 European Union anti‐dumping (AD) action on Vietnamese footwear in three markets: imports to the EU, footwear producers in Vietnam, and the trade diversionary adjustment of Vietnamese firms in the US market. We find that the AD action reduced Vietnamese imports to the EU by as much as 65 per cent. Given that the EU makes up almost two‐thirds of Vietnam's footwear exports and footwear is among the top four export industries for Vietnam, this reduction is economically significant. Consistent with predictions of our model, we find evidence of trade diversion by Vietnamese producers from the EU to the US market. Our difference‐in‐difference estimates of the AD actions on the value of Vietnamese footwear imports to the United States ranged from 69 to 71 per cent over the period 2004–07 and 69 to 72 per cent in terms of quantity. These results highlight the spillover effects of trade policy in third markets when firms adjust to trade barriers. Our results are robust to triple‐difference specifications where we adjust for trend differences and a series of placebo specifications.     

Accession of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland to the European Union: Impacts on Agricultural Markets

We analyse the consequences on agricultural markets of enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for two enlargement scenarios assuming different policy restrictions on grain and dairy production in the acceding countries. Accession of the three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices for most commodities. In the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase drastically, final consumption of agricultural products decreases in most instances, while production increases. Higher domestic prices in the CEECs reduce exports of most commodities to non‐union countries. Consequently, excess supplies are placed in stocks or exported to the original 15 member countries. Supply management mechanisms in the dairy and grain sectors would reduce the build‐up of surpluses in the new member states, but limit their ability to take advantage of the expanded market. Accession of the three CEECs would increase the CAP budget over its proposed maximum if area payments are extended to incoming crop producers.     

The Enlarged European Union and Its Eastern Neighborhood

Abstract

This paper deals with the economic relations between Russia, Ukraine and the enlarged European Union. We start with some essential characteristics regarding the huge gaps in the size and trade structures of these three economic entities, before briefly outlining the development of their institutional relations. We discuss the impacts of EU enlargement on Russia and Ukraine, as well as the prospects for Russia—Ukraine relations. Given all the complexities of these relations, the mutual interdependence and the uncertainties concerning the future, we conclude that rather than devising grand new schemes, Russia, Ukraine and the EU should focus on practical steps that would facilitate closer cooperation in areas such as the development of border regions, the implementation of a free trade area and the support of economic reforms. Regarding Ukraine, whose official aspirations of EU membership seem highly unrealistic at least in the medium term and whose already high economic dependency on Russia is becoming even more pronounced, the policy challenges will be formidable. Whether Ukraine will succeed in a fine-tuned balancing act to establish closer relations with both the enlarged EU and Russia simultaneously, remains to be seen. Concerning economics, Ukraine's already intense eastward integration may even deependespite Ukraine possibly getting more hearing in the EU at the insistence of some new member states.     

How Do US Economic Sanctions Affect EU's Trade with Target Countries?

We investigate the impact of US economic sanctions on EU's trade using a panel data approach expressed in a two‐level framework. Both multilateral and unilateral sanctions involving the US and the EU have a negative impact on EU trade (total, imports and exports). We argue that unilateral sanctions, if extensive in nature, would have a depressing impact on target countries’ trade, especially in the stage after sanctions have been imposed. Over time, both multilateral and unilateral sanctions lead to an increase in a target country's exports to the EU, lending support to the third‐country effect of sanctions.     

Myanmar

Myanmar is one of the few remaining Southeast Asian nations that is seeking to re‐establish itself as an economic force in the region. To achieve this, many of the economic reforms in the 1990s were directed toward the opening up of its economy and allowing the market forces to work. We look at some of the present conditions facing foreign businesses and the unique market of Myanmar. The nation's background, economic conditions, and the market conditions facing both the consumers and businesses are discussed. ? 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Prospects for the Greek Economy in the Post‐enlargement Era

This paper examines the consequences for Greece of the EU enlargement eastwards. The analysis is based on an evaluation of the Greek economy competitiveness relative to the economies of the acceding and candidate countries during the last decade. Using data disaggregated up to the third digit, the magnitude of Greek inter‐ and intra‐industry trade with the above countries is determined and contrasted to the corresponding trade with the EU. Other issues examined are the effects from factor movements such as the FDI flows and migration, and the macroeconomic effects from the reallocation of EU funds. Enlargement is expected to exert positive trade and FDI effects on the Greek economy, a negative effect on future economic growth as a result of budgetary reductions and an uncertain effect on labour markets from migration. A non‐exploited trade potential of Greece with the Balkan countries creates further opportunities for regional development.     

EU enlargement: External economic implications

The coming eastward enlargement of the EU has not prompted much debate about its external economic implications, quite in contrast to the fierce debates which accompanied previous enlargements. This article discusses the main economic effects of the CEECs' move from “association” to EU membership, and in particular the external impacts with respect to agriculture, industry and FDI. It also deals with the somewhat sensitive subject of US-CEEC bilateral investment treaties, as well as the prospects for catch-up growth by the accession countries.     

Productivity,Employment and Growth in European Integration

We compare the evolution of key macroeconomic indices for the European Union (EU), viewed as a unified economy, with that of the USA and Japan for the period 1950–95, report the process of convergence in the EU, and analyze the effect of its potential enlargement through the accession of 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) that are in active negotiation for EU membership. The EU has followed a path of rising labor productivity, declining capital productivity and rising capital intensity typical of advanced capitalist economies. Its productivities in the 1990s lie between those of the USA and Japan. There is evidence of convergence of EU-15 relative labor productivity and capital intensity levels to those of the USA. Relative real wages also seem to be converging. Profit rates in all three economies fell, most rapidly before 1975. There is a general pattern of convergence in the EU members in the evolution of labor productivity, capital productivity, real wage, gross profit rate, investment per worker, consumption per worker and capital intensity. The evidence for a specific membership effect on convergence is weak. The CEEC have much lower relative labor and capital productivity than any other countries that have entered the EU. The process of development in the CEEC will have to follow an atypical path of increasing or constant capital productivity and rising labor productivity in order to converge to EU norms. EU membership might have a positive impact on the prospective economic growth in the CEEC in these respects, as the vehicle for the transmission of critical changes in technology and productive organization.     

EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

Services Provision and Temporary Mobility: Freedoms and Regulation in the EU

International posting of workers and mobility of self‐employed service suppliers lie between outright migration and trade in goods: their regulation, for both distributional and market‐correcting purposes, is not as difficult to harmonise as that of labour markets, but personal mobility is more visible and socially intrusive than product market interactions. This paper analyses economic and legal tensions between national regulatory frameworks and international competition in these areas, in both the intra‐EU and global contexts, highlighting how interactions between the external and internal roles of the European Commission may foster efficient integration of markets and policies in this and other fields.     

Income Per Capita Inequality in China: The Role of Economic Geography and Spatial Interactions

(1241) Laura Hering and Sandra Poncet This paper contributes to the analysis of growing income inequality in China. We apply a structural model of economic geography to data on per capita income over 190 Chinese cities between 1995 and 2002, and evaluate the extent to which market proximity and spatial dependence can explain the growing income inequality between Chinese cities. The econometric specification explicitly incorporates spatial dependence in the form of spatially‐lagged per capita income. We show that the geography of market access and spatial dependence are significantly correlated with per capita income in China. Market access is particularly important in cities with smaller migration inflows, which is consistent with NEG theory, whereas spatially‐lagged per capita income matters more in cities with greater immigration. We conclude that the positive impact of spatially‐lagged income partly results from labour mobility between neighbours, so that spatial dependence reflects the influence of migration, knowledge transfers and increasing competition between cities.     

Territorial disparities in Europe

Traditionally, EU policies have been focused on economic and social cohesion. Recently, the territorial dimension of regional disparities as an aspect of EU policy has gained importance. The European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP), adopted in 1999, is meant to support a balanced development of the EU territory. Moreover, the European Commission addressed issues of territorial cohesion in its latest cohesion report. The present paper deals with territorial disparities and their current development in the EU. It analyses which kinds of region develop dynamically and offer favourable labour market conditions. The differences between rural and urban areas are a fundamental feature of territorial disparities in the EU and are of essential significance for the ESDP. The analysis deals with the question whether disparities between poor and rich regions as well as different growth trends and labour market conditions are still marked by the dualism between city and countryside. The authors would like to thank Elena Tcharykova for her excellent research assistance.     

欧盟东扩对中国外经贸企业的影响

2004年5月1日，中东欧10个国家加入欧盟，欧盟成员国增至25个国家，这是欧盟有史以来实现的最大规模的扩张。此举会给当今世界政治经济格局带来重大影响，同时，也给中国外经贸企业带来机遇和挑战。面对机遇和挑战，中国外经贸企业应牢固树立以质取胜的意识，提高产品档次；认真研究欧盟的法律、法规和技术标准；采取多种投资方式，不断创新，提高核心竞争力，迂回进入欧盟市场。     

What Role for the EPAs in the Caribbean?

The aim of this paper is to consider the possible implications of an EPA between the EU and the Caribbean. The focus is on the Caribbean economies, and on the question of what form of EPA might be pro‐development and pro‐poor for the region. The discussion outlines the specificities of the Caribbean region, and some of the economies therein as well as detailing the key analytical issues which need to be considered. The empirical analysis focuses on examining patterns of trade by product and geographical source at a highly detailed level of disaggregation. The analysis suggests that future EPA arrangements are more likely to lead to significant trade diversion as opposed to trade creation or trade reorientation. MFN liberalisation would serve to minimise trade diversion, but in turn is likely to lead to greater adjustment costs. If the EPAs are to be pro‐development and pro‐poor than maintaining/increasing levels of market access to the EU, and ensuring appropriate levels of assistance and aid will be critical.