发达国家对发展中国家的新直接投资

发达国家投资厂商对发展中国家的直接投资已发生了很大变化,传统直接投资以投资者持有足够股权对投资项目保持有效控制的活动方式,新直接投资是以其他方式不同程度地参与控制,或只参与收益分享而不参与控制。新直接投资是由传统直接投资、间接融资、纯国际贸易相结合而形成的国际经济活动,反映了投资的实质性特征。     

试论发展中国家利用外资与对外投资的互动关系

利用外资与对外投资作为我国建设开放型经济的两个重要组成部分,二者之间必然存在一定的联系。二者之间的关系如何呢?本文通过分析认为,发展中国家利用外资与对外投资之间存在着“相互融合、相互补充”的互动关系,并在此基础上分析了我国的相关情况,从中得出了几点启示。     

Tracing the Effects of WTO Accession on Policy‐making in Sovereign States: Preliminary Lessons from the Recent Experience of Transition Countries

We examine in this paper the effects of WTO Accession on policy‐making and institutional reforms in transition countries. This is done by looking at the experience of those transition countries which are already Members of the WTO and/or which have recently acceded. We start by trying to distinguish between effects of accession negotiations and from those which are the results of autonomous policy initiatives. The areas of domestic policy‐making which are considered in the analysis include market access, governance, government budget, structural reforms, trade and investment arrangements with regional partners and macroeconomic management. We find that no precise blueprint of accession conditions can be ascertained and argue that the WTO played a role, albeit not an exclusive one, in the process of liberalisation. We also find that the costs of WTO Accession are not negligible, but that the benefits of WTO Membership are significant in terms of improved, more predictable, market access and its stability, improved governance and a recourse to better economic policies without significant loss to government revenues.     

技术追随、策略互动与市场势力:发展中国家的对外直接投资

本文在系统总结发展中国家对外直接投资的基础上,提出了发展中国家FDI的三种模式:学习型、竞争策略型和市场势力型,分别代表着从低级阶段到高级阶段的发展演进过程。实证分析表明,大多数发展中国家的对外直接投资已度过了初期的学习型FDI阶段,正处于学习型与竞争策略型FDI的混合阶段,极少数发展中国家的跨国公司正酝酿进入更为高级的市场势力型FDI阶段。     

发展中国家对外直接投资:新特征与新思考

本文分析论述了新世纪以来特别是近几年来发展中国家对外直接投资发展的新特征,以中国为例讨论了发展中国家对外投资与跨国并购迅速发展的新机制,并从跨国投资理论角度对发展中国家优势寻求型对外投资的可行性进行了探讨。本文认为,在满足一定条件的前提下,发展中国家特别是后发大国的对外投资有可能走出一条不同以往的对外直接投资新模式。     

China,India and the Commodity Boom: Economic and Environmental Implications for Low‐income Countries

The international role of China has risen steadily for two decades – and has become even more important in the current global recession. The growing supply of labour‐intensive manufactured exports from China has been accompanied by a huge expansion in its imports both of raw materials and of skill‐intensive manufactured parts and components. This ‘offshoring’ of intermediates production by a large, labour‐abundant economy has economic and environmental implications for other developing economies. More recently, the rapid expansion of the Indian economy and trade indicates that it too will soon exert similar effects on global markets. We sketch a model showing how the growth of these developing‐country ‘giants’ generates adjustment pressures on other developing economies. We discuss in particular how differences in relative factor endowments of resource‐rich economies can produce quite different outcomes in the context of product fragmentation and expanding commodity trade. We also explore the effects on production, trade, environment and prospects for future growth in resource‐rich economies, particularly in the context of weak institutions and other market failures. We illustrate these different impacts by considering the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and highlight implications for growth, development and policy.     

Financial Sector Reforms in Developing Countries: The Indian Experience

This study is based on the premise that the success/failure of financial sector reforms depends heavily on country specific factors and makes an attempt to examine these factors in the Indian context. The financial sector reforms analysed in this paper include the deregulation of interest rates, increasing competition and foreign ownership, and the introduction of financial supervision. We argue that an economic rationale for a gradualist approach to financial reform is that it is stability enhancing. Furthermore, we suggest that India’s complex political economy has resulted in a gradual approach to reform, and this approach has been successful along the dimension of banking stability.     

The Trade‐Off between Foreign Direct Investments and Exports: The Role of Multiple Dimensions of Distance

To serve foreign markets, firms can either export or set up a local subsidiary through horizontal foreign direct investment (FDI). The conventional proximity–concentration theory suggests that FDI substitutes for trade if distance between countries is large, while exports become more important if scale economies in production are large. This paper investigates empirically the effect of different dimensions of distance on the choice between exports and FDI. We find that different dimensions of distance affect exports and FDI differently. There is clear evidence of a proximity–concentration trade‐off in geographical terms: the share of FDI sales in total foreign sales increases with geographical distance. The positive relation between import tariffs and FDI intensity provides further evidence for a trade‐off resulting from trade costs. On the other hand, the share of FDI decreases with language differences and cultural and institutional barriers. The latter dimensions of distance thus affect FDI more strongly than exports.     

A South–South Survival Strategy: The Potential for Trade among Developing Countries

Trade between developing countries, or South–South trade, has been growing rapidly in recent years following reductions in tariff barriers. However, significant barriers remain, and there is currently reluctance in many developing countries to undertake further reductions, with a preference instead for focusing on opening up access to developed country markets, or maintaining the status quo given that multilateral liberalisation may result in the erosion of preferential access enjoyed by some developing countries. This emphasis on Northern markets represents a missed opportunity for developing countries. To assess this we compare the potential effects of the removal of barriers on South–South trade with the gains from developed country liberalisation and from regional free trade areas within Africa, Asia and Latin America. A general equilibrium model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, containing information on preferential bilateral tariffs, is used to estimate the impacts. The results indicate that the opening up of Northern markets would provide annual welfare gains to developing countries of $22 billion. However, the removal of South–South barriers has the potential to generate gains 40 per cent larger. The results imply that giving greater emphasis to removing barriers between as well as within continents could prove a successful Southern survival strategy.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies: A Meta‐analysis

In this paper, we conduct a meta‐analysis of studies that empirically examine the relationship between economic transformation and foreign direct investment (FDI) performance in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union over the past quarter century. More specifically, we synthesise the empirical evidence reported in previous studies that deal with the determinants of FDI in transition economies, focusing on the impacts of transition factors. We also perform meta‐regression analysis to specify determinant factors of the heterogeneity among the relevant studies and the presence of publication‐selection bias. We find that the existing literature reports a statistically significant non‐zero effect as a whole, and a genuine effect is confirmed for some FDI determinants beyond the publication‐selection bias.     

发展中国家的汇率制度选择

笔者倾向于发展中国家实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,对汇率的过度波动进行干预并适当地保持汇率的弹性能使一国更好地对实际冲击做出调整。本文在探讨了发展中国家如何选择汇率制度的基础上,对我国的汇率制度选择提出了设想。     

资本国际化进程及其给发展中国家带来的挑战

随着国家间经济联系的加强 ,资本国际化也经历了从无到有 ,从偶尔到经常 ,从少量到大规模的历史过程。资本国际化在提高全球资本配置效率的同时也给各个国家 ,特别是发展中国家带来了一些挑战 ,鉴于此 ,发展中国家既要善于利用资本国际化带来的机遇更要采取有针对性的政策措施防范资本国际化可能带来的冲击     

论跨国公司在发展中东道国的技术溢出效应

技术进步是一国经济增长的关键因素。发展中国家因自身技术创新能力的限制,需要重视利用技术扩散来促进本国技术水平的提高和经济的快速发展。在经济全球化的今天,跨国公司在发展中东道国的技术溢出的作用变得越来越重要。从溢出途径、效果和制约因素方面研究跨国公司在发展中东道国的技术溢出效应,能够提出发展中国家促进并有效利用技术溢出效应的相应策略。     

产业的全球化趋势与发展中国家的产业升级--兼论中国高新技术产业的外商投资与加工贸易发展

20世纪80年代以来,产业的全球化趋势日渐明朗.国际直接投资是产业全球化发展的主要实现形式,跨国公司则是推动产业全球化发展的微观载体.产业的全球化发展趋势,为发展中国家切入全球高新技术产业链条,实现产业升级换代提供了便捷路径.但另一方面,受跨国公司全球经营战略的影响和发展中国家自身因素的制约,发展中国家依靠外资带动的产业升级也面临着重大的挑战.     

试论发展中国家产业政策的主要问题与改进方向

产业政策是发展中国家主导性的经济政策.发展中国家的产业政策因其产生的特殊背景与条件,具有自身的特点与合理性,但在实践中也暴露出了不少缺陷,产生了一些负面影响.为更好地推动经济结构调整与经济发展方式转变,发展中国家政府必须反思产业政策带来的现实问题,对产业政策作出适当调整.要强调劳动生产率上升标准,严格把握重点产业的选择标准;对重点产业的保护与扶植做到公开透明,并进行定期评估;在重点产业内部引入竞争机制,促使企业充分参与国际竞争;加强对创新行为的支持与保护.我国在制定产业政策时,在重点产业的选择上应更为慎重,并更多地考虑如何在重点产业内部创造竞争并提高政策扶植透明度、强化评估监管等问题.